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1、农业绿色发展评价：系统定量方法与指标体系,主要内容,可持续食物系统分析的研究方法农业绿色发展指标体系初步构建我国农业绿色发展系统分析方法,食物系统分析研究理论框架,. exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit, 19
2、96; Ingram 2011),食物系统的研究边界不仅是农业生产，而是“食物生产-加工/包装-运输/销售-消费”整个链条；研究的目标不仅是生产足够的食物，还要兼顾食品安全和营养健康；资源环境限制下，如何保障社会对健康膳食的需求是食物系统研究新的挑战；食物系统分析模型可以帮助我们理解各环节之间的关系，阐明各种优化措施对食物系统的影响。,理解复杂食物系统行为，是提高自然资源利用效率的关键,The report looks at all the resources （land, water and minerals,） needed for the primary production of fo
3、od, as well as for other food system activities considering not only the set of activities, but also the range of actors engaged in them and the outcomes in terms of food security, livelihoods and human health.,膳食营养需求是食物系统运转的驱动力；食物环境是可持续消费和人体健康的关键；食物系统需要考虑经济、社会和环境的可持续。,需要理解优化食物供需结构、减少食物损失和浪费、优化生产降低土
4、地需求压力与可持续食物系统的定量关系,资源环境限制下，如何保障健康膳食的需求，需要通过系统分析的方法，设计全产业链可持续发展途径。,联合国SDSN组织全球可持续食物系统与土地利用协作网：FABLE Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land Use and Energy,GLOBIOM模型成为FABLE全球协作网的核心研究工具,GLOBIOM model: Global Biosphere Management Model,20年前，瓦赫宁根大学开始组织系统交叉创新博士项目Interdisciplinary Research and Education Fund
5、 of Wageningen University (INREF),2000-2010: The core activity of the INREF programme is formed by interdisciplinary, multi-annual, graduate schools-overarching research programmes on complex development-related issues.,12 research programmes, 6-12 PhD students/programmes,2015年以来，瓦赫宁根大学系统交叉创新博士项目围绕全
6、球可持续食物系统的SDGs设立,In 2015, the Executive Board of WUR stresses the importance of collaboration to tackle the challenges of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to further develop and strengthen national, regional and world-wide Research for Development and Education (RfDE).,https:/www.wur.nl/e
7、n/Research-Results/Sustainable-development-goals.htm,The global ambitions to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture (SDG2) demand a complex transition of the current food system.,https:/www.wur.nl/en/Research-Results/Sustainable-Development-Goals
8、/tegels-SDG-goals/2.-Zero-hunger.htm,Food system approach,食物系统分析方法是交叉创新博士项目的核心研究方法,系统研究理论与方法,农业绿色发展需要创新和建立系统研究理论食物系统的研究边界不仅是农业生产，而是“食物生产-加工/包装-运输/销售-消费”整个链条；研究的目标不仅是生产足够的食物，还要兼顾食物安全和营养健康；资源环境限制下，如何保障社会对健康膳食的需求是食物系统研究新的挑战；食物系统分析模型是农业绿色发展研究重要研究方法之一，可以帮助理解各环节之间的关系，定量分析农业绿色发展的目标、指标、解决途径和系统评价，阐明各种优化措施对食物
9、系统的影响。,指标体系是农业绿色发展系统分析和定量设计的标尺,中国农业处于“绿色”和“发展”的转折点,发展 - Food Nutrition Adequacy,绿色 - Ecosystem Stability,发展指标,绿色指标,Chaudhary et al., 2018 Nature Communication,Task 1: National N budgetsTask 2: Dairy farm N budgetsTask 3: Nitrogen Use EfficiencyTask 4: Linking up “pressure” and “state” (budget) indic
10、ators,Using indicators and models in INMS to inform about nitrogen-related environmental threats,Wilfried Winiwarter,全球氮评估项目（INMs）建立了多尺度评价指标体系,EEA: DPSIR - Concept,“DPSIR” to describe relations to resolve environmental problems,(socio-economics),Drivers,Wilfried Winiwarter,DPSIR框架是全球氮评价指标体系的理论模型,INM
11、S indicator sets,20,DPSIR,EnvironmentProduction(Human Welfare),See also Hideaki Shibata et al.,NUE,Leaching,Population, Food demand, Energy,Food, feed, fibers,Emission fluxes,Costs of impacts,N deposition,Costs of abatement,N trade,Ozone damage,PM health damage,Costs of reclamation,Water pollution,F
12、ertilizer/manure application,N concentration,Wilfried Winiwarter,指标体系的定量和系统分析需要耦合模型系统,21,12/8/2022,Wim de Vries et al., 2019,Agri-environmental indicators(AEIs), 2006-: track the integration of environmental concerns into the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) at EU, national and regional levels.Commo
13、n agricultural policy (CAP) indicators, 2014-: A number of indicator types were defined to support the assessment of the CAPs performance.EU Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators, 2015-: A time graph will allow you to see the development of each sub-indicator at one glance as well as to co
14、mpare your country to the EU average and other EU countris.,欧盟把指标体系和DPSIR理论作为农业、环境和SDGs政策的评价工具,Agri-environmental indicators,A set of 28 agri-environmental indicators to monitor the integration of environmental concerns into the Common agricultural policy (CAP). provide information on the farmed env
15、ironment;track the impact of agriculture on the environment;assess the impact of agricultural and environmental policies on environmental management of farms;inform agricultural and environmental policy decisions;illustrate agri-environmental relationships to the broader public.,Common agricultural
16、policy (CAP) indicators,The European Commission uses the common monitoring and evaluation framework (CMEF) to assess whether the CAP is achieving itsobjectives. These objectives areViable food productionSustainable management of natural resources and climate actionBalanced territorial development,Su
17、stainable Development Goals indicators,我国农业绿色发展指标体系的构建,基于农业绿色发展三大支柱和DPSIR理论体系，构建指标体系,（Driving forces PressureStateImpactResponse）,农业绿色发展指标体系的构建,“50”明确共性可比问题,“X”解析区域特色问题,结合国际、国内经济发展和农业生产水平，将体系指标分等定级。,指标体系构建和指标选择需要统一的标准,28,i) easily measurable;ii) sensitive to stresses on the system; iii) responsive t
18、o stress in a predictable manner; iv) anticipatory, in that they signify any impending change in the system; v) able to predict changes that can be averted by management actions; vi) integrative, in that the full suite of indicators provides a measure of coverage of gradients in different agricultur
19、al systems such as cropping, livestock and pasture; vii) reliably responsive to natural disturbances, anthropogenic stresses and changes over time; and viii) only slightly variable in response.,A Literature Review on Frameworks and Methods for Measuring and Monitoring Sustainable Agriculture,农业绿色发展指
20、标体系,分析复杂的食物系统问题，需要从科学的视角建立定量指标体系，DPSIR框架是分析指标间动态关系的重要手段；欧盟通过长期的科学研究，建立了Agri-environmental、CAP、SDGs indicators，作为政策制定和评价的依据；我国急需构建基于科学定量的农业（食物系统）绿色发展指标体系，并利用DPSIR框架，定量设计农业绿色发展系统解决方案和开展相关政策评价。,我国农业绿色发展的系统分析的初步思考,自上而下,自下而上,国家尺度资源限制VS全球贸易,农户尺度种养系统解决方案,流域尺度环境阈值与反馈,县域尺度绿色食物系统设计,国家尺度农业绿色发展实现途径及其对全球SDGs的贡献,
21、农户尺度卡脖子关键技术,流域尺度环境监测与评估,县域尺度技术推广与补贴,1 构建“食物系统-土地利用-水-养分-温室气体”多指标系统分析模型和农业绿色发展评价指标体系,Ma et al., 2019 EST,Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs,Chen et al., 2019 EST,多尺度模型融合,2 定量分析我国未来农业产品生产和需求之间的差距，以及全球贸易的影响,Zhao., unpublished data,3 定量流域尺度以绿色环境与资源为卡口，农业绿色发展实现路径,Li et al. 2019 COSUST,Li et al. 2019 ST
22、OTEN,多介质无污染的耦合分析,4 定量设计县域农业绿色发展可落地的实现途径和解决方案,5 发展多样化的种植系统,2 打造优质小麦全产业链,4 适度发展基于秸秆饲用的肉羊养殖产业,6 建立垃圾分类和餐厨垃圾循环产业,3 建立种养结合模式，推动高品质蛋鸡产业链,1 基于绿色资源环境的空间设计和产业布局,5 重塑多样化的食物系统和绿色全产业链解决方案,Bai et al., 2018, SA,30年中国农业完成了从“几千年的农户复合功能型” 向“集约化单一功能型的转变”,小结,系统分析方法是农业绿色发展研究重要研究方法之一，可以帮助理解各环节之间的关系，定量分析农业绿色发展的目标、指标、解决途径和系统评价，阐明各种优化措施对全产业链的影响。我国急需构建基于科学定量的农业（食物系统）绿色发展指标体系，并利用DPSIR框架，定量设计国家、流域、县域和全产业链的农业绿色发展系统解决方案。,Thank you !,
