《高瑞特卫星节目讲义配销与供应链.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《高瑞特卫星节目讲义配销与供应链.docx（69页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、n 当前文档修改密码：8362839001GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM高瑞特卫星节目SESSION 4第四讲DISTRIBUTION AND SUPPLY CHAIN配销与供应链Good to see you again and for those who are hiding behind this camera good to imagine you again.很高兴又见面了。至于摄影机背后的观众，很高兴又能想象你们在收看。Distribution. 配销。The first thing to realize is that almost all function
2、s in the organization are impacted by distribution. 首先要了解，组织内全部的功能几乎都受到配销所影响。So lets not think about ok, we are in production or we are in healthcare, we shouldnt care about distribution. 不要认为我们是生产业或医疗业，就不必关心配销。Distribution impacts almost everybody. 配销几乎影响每个人。We are going to see to what extent produ
3、ction is impacted by distribution, much more than people imagine. 我们会看到，配销对生产带来的影响，远超乎人们所能想象。Even if you are maybe the first link in the supply chain, which means you supply to somebody else, who supply to somebody else, then supply to the market through the distribution. 即使你是供应链的第一环，也就是说，你供应给某个人，他再
4、供应给某个人，然后透过配销供应到市场上。You are impacted dramatically by distribution. 你也会深受配销影响。And not less important you can impact distribution, not just can- must. 很重要的一点是，你也可以影响配销，不只是可以，而是必须。If you are for example in health care, how can you be impacted by distribution? 如果你是在医疗业，怎么受配销所影响呢？How much of the health c
5、are industry, how much of the cost is drugs, medicines? 在医疗业中，药品占总成本的多少？Have you noticed that this is something like 30% of the total amount of money? 你是否注意到大约是总金额的30%？And if the distribution is not handled correctly it can bring you to your knees. 如果你无法正确处理配销，可能就会一败涂地。And besides everyone of us fro
6、m time to time goes to a shop, we are impacted by distribution. 此外，我们每个人偶尔会去商店买东西，所以也会受到配销影响。So even for a general understanding of how come that we are coming and we want this white shirt and we cannot find it.即使我们想买白衬衫，而却找不到也是配销的事。You know there is one thing that I miss due to this program- it is
7、white shirts. 你知道吗？这个节目我唯一没穿过的是：白衬衫。Distribution. 配销。This is by the way one of the most difficult subjects to understand. Because there are so many points of view on it. 顺带一提，配销是最难了解的主题之一，因为我们可以从很多观点来看配销。It is the point of view of the supplier to the distribution.可以从供货商的观点来看配销。It is the point of vie
8、w of the one inside the distribution, for example, in charge of a regional ware-house. 可以从配销通路内人员的观点来看，例如负责区域仓库的人。It is the point of view of the client and everybody thinks that all the others dont know what they are doing. 也可以从客户的观点来看，而每个人认为其它人都不知道自己在做什么。And if he or she would have been in charge o
9、f the whole thing, they can do much, much better. 如果是由他来负责整件事，就可以做得更多、更好。It is amazing to what extent people think so about everyone who is in distribution.令人惊讶的是，大家对配销通路中的其它成员竟抱持这种看法。It is amazing, it is not just top management that thinks like that. 实在令人惊讶，不只是高阶主管会这么想。That if they would have been
10、in charge of the whole thing it would have been much better. 他们都认为如果由自己来全权负责整件事，情况就会好很多。Even the lowest person in the pyramid is totally convinced that if he would have managed it, it would have been much better. 即使在金字塔最底部的人，都深信如果由他来管理，情况就会好很多。Why is it? 为什么会这样呢？Maybe the best way to look on it and
11、see to what extent the opportunity here for the improvement or the problem is big, is by asking somebody in the distribution chain- how much inventory do you have? 也许最能看到改善机会或问题严重性的方法，就是问一下配销通路中的某个人：“你持有多少存货？”Usually the answer is, lets say so many millions of dollars. 答案通常是：几百万美元。Many times he does
12、nt give the answer in dollars which is actually looking in the past and saying how much did I invest in having the inventory. 很多时候，他给的不是金额，不是回首过去，说他投资了多少钱买这些存货。But he is looking to the future and he is telling you- we have 6 weeks inventory. 而是展望未来，他会说：“我们有六周的存货。”Why do I call it looking to the futu
13、re? 为什么我称这种说法为展望未来呢？Because actually he says- inventory that I hold is sufficient to cover 6 weeks of consumption. 因为实际上他说的是：“我持有的存货足以提供六周的消费量。”But when you really look into details of this 6 weeks inventory, you will find out that some items are 0 in stock, they have run out totally, some other ite
14、ms they have enough for their grandchildren. 但是如果你看一下这六周存货的明细，会发现有些商品的存货是零，有些商品却多到足以留给他们的孙子使用。And this is called on average 6 weeks. 这叫做平均六周的存货。Of course, everybody is aware of it and that is why everybody is convinced we can do much, much better. 当然，每个人都知道这个现象，所以他们深信自己可以做得更好。Lets use the techniques
15、 that we have already learned in order to understand the maze that is happening in distribution and why the performance is such that nobody is happy with. 让我们利用之前学到的技巧，来了解配销的难题，以及为什么大家都对结果不满意的原因。For that lets use the 5 focusing steps that we have learned in session 2. 我们利用第二讲学到的五个专注的步骤。Remember, wha
16、t was the first step, always? 还记得，步骤一永远是什么？Identify the systems constraint.指出系统的限制。Identify the thing, that if you had more from it you would have more throughput, you would have sold more. 如果你有更多存货，就有更多有效产出，可以卖出更多商品。Now if you are in distribution and you have inventory, plenty of inventory, not alw
17、ays the right inventory but you do have plenty of inventory, what is the thing that if you had more, definitely you would get more throughput, more sales. 假设你是配销商，持有大量的存货，尽管不见得都是正确的存货，谁能让你的有效产出更多呢？Everybody knows it- clients. 每个人都知道：客户。If more clients would have come and wanted to buy, definitely I
18、would have found something to sell. 如果更多客户上门想要购买，我绝对可以找到商品贩卖。Then the constraint of the system is clients who come to buy.于是系统的限制就是来购买的客户。What is the second step? 步骤二是什么？Exploit the systems constraint. 充分应用系统的限制。Dont waste it, if the client already entered and wanted to buy, sell him. 不要浪费，如果客户已经进门而
19、且想购买，就卖东西给他。But how?但是要怎么做呢？What is the meaning of exploit the systems constraint? 充分应用系统的限制是什么意思？In our case it means you must hold at the right place in the right time the right inventory. 在我们的例子中，你必须在正确的地点、正确的时间、持有正确的存货。Because if you will not hold at the right place at the time when the client c
20、omes the right inventory then the client will say sorry and will go out also a little bit disappointed which means that maybe second time maybe he will not come to you. 如果你不能在客户进门时，持有正确的存货，他会说很抱歉，然后有点失望的离开，也就是说，他下一次可能不会再来找你。Exploit the systems constraint means have the right inventory in the right p
21、lace at the right time. 充分应用系统的限制，意谓着在正确的地点、正确的时间、持有正确的存货。Everybody knows it. 大家都知道这一点。Not like in other places that maybe we didnt know the constraint. 不像在其它时候，我们可能不知道限制为何。In distribution every one knows the constraint and everybody knows how important is to exploit the constraint and everybody kno
22、ws what is needed to be done in order to exploit the constraint. 配销通路中的每个成员都知道限制，以及充分应用限制的重要性，都了解应该做什么才能充分应用限制。The problem is in the third step in subordination. 问题在于第三个步骤：配合。In other words, how do we make our entire system subordinate so that we can exploit the constraint? 换句话说，我们如何让整个系统全力配合，以充分应用限
23、制？What must we do in order to have the right inventory in the right place at the right time? 我们必须做什么，才能在正确的地点、正确的时间、持有正确的存货。And this is not simple at all. 这一点也不简单。Now, lets look on it and lets understand much more of the logic. 现在，让我们看一下，再进一步了解这套逻辑。Now of course, in order to do that I wrote some tre
24、es but what I found out is since most people are not intimately in the distribution it is quite hard to understand the cause and effect in this tree. 当然，为了让大家了解这套逻辑，我画了一些逻辑树，但是我发现多数人都不是配销通路里的成员，所以不容易理解树里面的因果关系。So instead I decided that I will use animation. 因此，我决定用卡通的方式。You dont mind that this repre
25、sents the manager in distribution.你不介意这代表配销里的经理吧！He is a nice fellow, he is even smiling. 他是个好人，甚至在微笑呢！Move your eyes! No! Fine. 眨一下你的眼睛！不要！好。Ah. Nice. 噢！很好。Now lets see where the distribution is starting from, where is the whole concept. 现在我们看一下配销是从哪里开始，整个概念在哪里？Look on what is happening.看看发生了什么事？Wh
26、at we see is a mismatch in satisfying the market demands. 我们看到有个地方不能满足市场需求。Suppose that it takes 1 month to bring the merchandise from the vendor to this location. 假设要花一个月，才能把商品从供货商那边送到这个地点。From submitting of order until they will produce maybe, and definitely until they will bring it and somehow we
27、 have the impression that whenever we need something urgently they are using the mode of turtles to bring it to us. 从下订单一直到生产、运送，我们心中总有个印象，只要是我们急需的东西，他们就会用乌龟的速度送来。The check is in the mail. At the same time the clients want it now. 支票已经寄了，客户现在就要拿到货。There is a mismatch here, we are not satisfying the
28、client needs. 在这里我们无法满足客户的需要。And then what happens is- somebody realized here we dont satisfy the market real needs. 接下来是：有人发现我们无法满足市场真正的需求。There is a business opportunity. 这里出现了商机。And he had a marvelous idea. A light bulb came up. 他灵光一闪，想到一个相当好的主意。And what is the idea? 是什么主意呢？Let me put the orders
29、to the vendor, let me put the inventory here in place so if clients, the market wants it now I can deliver it immediately now. 让我下订单给供货商，把存货放在这里，如果客户和市场现在需要，我马上就能出货。Now if it takes a whole month to bring from submitting an order until it arrives how much inventory should I hold? 1 month. 假设从下订单到商品到达
30、要花一整个月，那我必须持有多少存货呢？一个月。So I have a business, I am acting upon it and what is now the situation? 所以生意上门，我马上采取响应，现在的情况是什么呢？The situation is that I have created a distribution business. 于是我创造了配销事业。I have 1 month of inventory, I am placing orders based on what? 我有一个月的存货，我根据什么下订单呢？Forecast, but when the
31、client comes I can deliver immediately.销售预估，不过当客人上门，我就能立刻出货。Looks nice, but how much inventory do I have to hold if it takes one month to bring it. 看起来很好，但是如果商品要一个月后才到，那我必须持有多少存货呢？I have to hold one month. 我必须持有一个月的存货。Wait, what is the meaning of one month. 等一下，一个月是什么意思？One month means one month of
32、average consumption.一个月表示一个月的平均消费量。Well, you all know what is the meaning of average consumption. Right? 嗯，你们都知道平均消费量的意思，对不对？Sometimes it is below, sometimes it is more. 有时候少一点，有时候多一点。What happens when it is more? What happens when it is more?多一点的时候会怎么样呢？What happens when 2 clients arrive more than
33、the average? 如果来的客人比平均多，会怎么样呢？You drain the inventory and what is happening now- we want it now, do you have enough to give? 你的存货用光了，现在会怎么样呢？我们现在就要，你有没有足够的商品给客人？Nope, but the whole business was on customer satisfaction that you can give now. 没有，但是整个配销事业的基础，就是必须让顾客现在就满意。Oh, oh, we are in trouble but
34、look what is happening before that. 噢！我们有麻烦了，但是看看在这之前发生什么事。If it is one month on the way already it means I put one month in place this already means I am holding 2 months inventory. 如果一个月的存货在路上，表示我这里已经放了一个月的存货，也就是说，我持有两个月的存货。Remember what happened- one month lead time of delivery means now that I a
35、m holding one month on the road, plus one month in inventory, so it doubled. 还记得发生了什么事吗？一个月的送货前置时间，表示一个月的存货在路上，再加上这里一个月的存货，所以存货数量加倍了。But now it wasnt enough so what do I do now if I want to give perfect customer service? 但是还不够，所以如果我想提供顾客完美的服务，现在应该要怎么做？2 month, 3 months now depends on how much is the
36、 fluctuations in demand. 持有两个月、三个月的存货？端视需求的波动幅度而定。Lets suppose that in our case the fluctuations are quite small. 假设在这个例子中，波动幅度相当小。In other words in one month we can sell many times twice the average month. Ok? 换句话说，我们在某个月的销售量是平均的两倍，好吗？I am still smiling, because maybe I made so much money by provid
37、ing this service that I can invest in more inventory. 我仍然在微笑，因为提供这项服务让我赚大钱，所以可以投资在更多存货上面。Fine, I will act upon my hunch. 很好，我会依照直觉行事。Which means now the situation will be that how much inventory do I have to hold? 也就是说，现在的情况是我必须持有多少存货呢？2 months, so how much now is the inventory is in the total suppl
38、y chain- 3 times the lead time. 两个月，所以现在整条供应链上的存货总共多少？前置时间的三倍。Do you understand now why people are telling you to shrink the lead time? 你现在知道为什么人们都叫你缩短前置时间了吗？Because the inventory that the supply chain has to hold is now 3 times more.因为现在供应链里持有的存货变成了三倍。And by that well do everything perfect? 这样一来，每件
39、事情都会很完美吗？Oh, no, suppose that 2 months was enough to compensate for the market fluctuations. 不会，假设两个月就足以抵销市场的波动。What about sometimes the supply going into problems? 如果有时候供给出现问题了呢？I am not talking about strike, I am talking about- we asked for it from the vendor, and this time the vendor had another
40、more important order. 我不是指罢工，而是指我们向供货商订货，这时候供货商要处理另一笔更重要的订单。Or, the ship was stuck in customs or whatever. 或是船被困在海关等情况。Have you heard about such great things? 你听过这类伟大的事情吗？Something went wrong. 某件事出了差错。By the way if you are talking about average supplier, I am not talking about these phenomenally rel
41、iable suppliers, but average supplier. 顺带一提，我说的是一般的供货商，不是那些十分可靠的供货商。And the average replenishment time from this supplier is one month, it means that we have 5% chance to wait more than 2 months. Ok? 这个供货商的平均补货时间是一个月，这意谓着我们有5%的机率必须等两个月以上，对吗？These are average suppliers. Ok? 这些是一般的供货商，好吗？Unless you ar
42、e talking about these phenomenal suppliers that really supply 99% on the time.除非你说的是这些99%都会准时补货的可靠供货商。Now what happens? 现在发生什么事？Our turtle got stuck on the way, we can give excuses to our clients. 我们的乌龟卡在半路上，我们可以把这个借口告诉客户。What is their tolerance time? 他们的宽限时间是多久？Zero, which means, go and give the ex
43、cuses to thin air. 零，也就是说，你去跟空气说这个借口。Your customer service is not good enough. 你提供的顾客服务不够好。Now you start to think again.现在你再度开始思考。And when you think again what is now coming on your mind, what is the only way out? 你再度思考时，会想到什么？唯一的解决方法是什么？What is the only way out? More inventory. 4 months? 唯一的解决方法是持有
44、更多存货，四个月吗？That is a problem. 这就是问题所在。Now I have a choice- either I am increasing the inventory even more or I give up on giving good customer service, one of the two. 现在我要做个选择：不是增加更多存货，就是放弃提供好的顾客服务，二者选一。Suppose, that I am deciding- OK, 4 months. 假设我决定：好，四个月。I am doubling the inventory again. 结果我又把存货
45、数量加倍。Now I will probably be hopefully 99% on time.现在我应该能99%的准时。But then look what happened to the inventory, how many inventory turns do we have?但是看一下存货，我们的存货周转率是多少？If we will look on one product now and well think about what the product is thinking maybe well get the following statement from the pr
46、oduct. 如果我们站在一项产品的角度思考，也许可以得到以下的结果。It took 2 months to reach, and then I was staying on the shelf another 4 months until it was my turn to be delivered, to earn a customer. 我花两个月到这里，现在还要在货架上待四个月，才能得到一个客户的芳心。How lovely! 太美妙了！It was such an emergency, we need it now! 情况实在很紧急，我们现在就要！And then how much t
47、ime passed until I found a customer, I found the owner- 6 months. 然后我花了多久的时间才找到主人：六个月。If you are looking on many, many industries, and you are not looking on one link, but the entire supply chain, how many inventory turns do we talk about? 如果你看的是许多产业，不只是一个环节，而是整条供应链，我们说的存货周转率是多少？Sometimes, less than one, to that extent. 有时候甚至不到1。Are you amazed? Now, it is not always the case.你很惊讶吗？现在，情况并非总是如此。For example, if you are looking in the textile industry, in the fashion goods, then it is much better
