《宏观经济学曼昆版PPT.pptx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《宏观经济学曼昆版PPT.pptx（28页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、宏观经济学曼昆版PPT,宏观经济学曼昆版PPT,In this chapter, we are going to study,The concept of present value and its calculationWays of managing risksDiversification of idiosyncratic riskFundamental analysisEfficient markets hypothesis,In this chapter, we are going,Finance is the field that studies how people make d
2、ecisions regarding the allocation of resources over time and the handling of risk.,Finance is the field that stud,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY,Present value refers to the amount of money today that would be needed to produce, using prevailing interest rates, a given future amount
3、 of money.,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE T,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY,The concept of present value demonstrates the following:Receiving a given sum of money in the present is preferred to receiving the same sun in the future.In order to compare values at different points in time
4、, compare their present values.Firms undertake investment projects if the present value of the project exceeds the cost.,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE T,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY,If r is the interest rate, then an amount X to be received in N years has present value of:X/(1 + r
5、)N,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE T,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY,Future ValueThe amount of money in the future that an amount of money today will yield, given prevailing interest rates, is called the future value.,PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE T,FYI: Rule of 70,According to the rule
6、 of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.,FYI: Rule of 70According to th,MANAGING RISK,A person is said to be risk averse if she exhibits a dislike of uncertainty.,MANAGING RISKA person is said,MANAGING RISK,Individuals ca
7、n reduce risk choosing any of the following:Buy insuranceDiversifyAccept a lower return on their investments,MANAGING RISKIndividuals can r,Figure 1 Risk Aversion,Wealth,0,Utility,Current,wealth,Copyright2004 South-Western,Figure 1 Risk AversionWealth0U,The Markets for Insurance,One way to deal with
8、 risk is to buy insurance. The general feature of insurance contracts is that a person facing a risk pays a fee to an insurance company, which in return agrees to accept all or part of the risk.,The Markets for InsuranceOne w,Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk,Diversification refers to the reduct
9、ion of risk achieved by replacing a single risk with a large number of smaller unrelated risks.,Diversification of Idiosyncrat,Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk,Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects only a single person. The uncertainty associated with specific companies.,Diversification o
10、f Idiosyncrat,Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk,Aggregate risk is the risk that affects all economic actors at once, the uncertainty associated with the entire economy. Diversification cannot remove aggregate risk.,Diversification of Idiosyncrat,Figure 2 Diversification,Number of,Stocks in,Portf
11、olio,49,(More risk),(Less risk),20,0,1,4,6,8,10,20,40,Risk (standard,deviation of,portfolio return),30,Copyright2004 South-Western,Figure 2 DiversificationNumber,Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk,People can reduce risk by accepting a lower rate of return.,Diversification of Idiosyncrat,Figure 3
12、The Tradeoff between Risk and Return,Risk,(standard,deviation),0,5,10,15,20,8.3,3.1,Return,(percent,per year),Copyright2004 South-Western,Figure 3 The Tradeoff between,ASSET VALUATION,Fundamental analysis is the study of a companys accounting statements and future prospects to determine its value.,A
13、SSET VALUATIONFundamental ana,ASSET VALUATION,People can employ fundamental analysis to try to determine if a stock is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued. The goal is to buy undervalued stock.,ASSET VALUATIONPeople can empl,Efficient Markets Hypothesis,The efficient markets hypothesis is the
14、theory that asset prices reflect all publicly available information about the value of an asset.,Efficient Markets HypothesisTh,Efficient Markets Hypothesis,A market is informationally efficient when it reflects all available information in a rational way.If markets are efficient, the only thing an
15、investor can do is buy a diversified portfolio,Efficient Markets HypothesisA,CASE STUDY: Random Walks and Index Funds,Random walk refers to the path of a variable whose changes are impossible to predict.If markets are efficient, all stocks are fairly valued and no stock is more likely to appreciate
16、than another. Thus stock prices follow a random walk.,CASE STUDY: Random Walks and I,Summary,Because savings can earn interest, a sum of money today is more valuable than the same sum of money in the future.A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.The present
17、 value of any future sum is the amount that would be needed today, given prevailing interest rates, to produce the future sum.,SummaryBecause savings can ear,Summary,Because of diminishing marginal utility, most people are risk averse.Risk-averse people can reduce risk using insurance, through diver
18、sification, and by choosing a portfolio with lower risk and lower returns.The value of an asset, such as a share of stock, equals the present value of the cash flows the owner of the share will receive, including the stream of dividends and the final sale price.,SummaryBecause of diminishing,Summary
19、,According to the efficient markets hypothesis, financial markets process available information rationally, so a stock price always equals the best estimate of the value of the underlying business.Some economists question the efficient markets hypothesis, however, and believe that irrational psychol
20、ogical factors also influence asset prices.,SummaryAccording to the effici,生活中的辛苦阻挠不了我对生活的热爱。22.12.1622.12.16Friday, December 16, 2022人生得意须尽欢，莫使金樽空对月。07:04:5007:04:5007:0412/16/2022 7:04:50 AM做一枚螺丝钉，那里需要那里上。22.12.1607:04:5007:04Dec-2216-Dec-22日复一日的努力只为成就美好的明天。07:04:5007:04:5007:04Friday, December 16
21、, 2022安全放在第一位，防微杜渐。22.12.1622.12.1607:04:5007:04:50December 16, 2022加强自身建设，增强个人的休养。2022年12月16日上午7时4分22.12.1622.12.16精益求精，追求卓越，因为相信而伟大。2022年12月16日星期五上午7时4分50秒07:04:5022.12.16让自己更加强大，更加专业，这才能让自己更好。2022年12月上午7时4分22.12.1607:04December 16, 2022这些年的努力就为了得到相应的回报。2022年12月16日星期五7时4分50秒07:04:5016 December 2022科学，你是国力的灵魂；同时又是社会发展的标志。上午7时4分50秒上午7时4分07:04:5022.12.16每天都是美好的一天，新的一天开启。22.12.1622.12.1607:0407:04:5007:04:50Dec-22相信命运，让自己成长，慢慢的长大。2022年12月16日星期五7时4分50秒Friday, December 16, 2022爱情，亲情，友情，让人无法割舍。22.12.162022年12月16日星期五7时4分50秒22.12.16,谢谢大家！,生活中的辛苦阻挠不了我对生活的热爱。9月-229月-22Mo,感谢聆听,感谢聆听,
