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1、1,International Economics,Lectured by Yuanfen TuSchool of International Trade and Economics Email:,国际经济学,1International Economics Lectu,International EconomicsBy Robert J. Carbaugh9th Edition,Chapter 16:Exchange-Rate Systems,International EconomicsBy Rob,Introduction,Exchange-rate practices after wo
2、rld war IINature and operation of actual exchange-rate systemsEconomic factors that influence the choice of alternative exchange-rate systems,IntroductionExchange-rate prac,Exchange-Rate Practices,Floating or Fixed?IMF principles for member nations: Exchange rate should not be manipulated to prevent
3、 effective balance-of-payments adjustments or to gain unfair competitive gains Members should act to counter short-term exchange market disorders When members intervene in markets, they should take into account the interests of other members.Exchange-rate practices of IMF members (Table 15.1) Choosi
4、ng an exchange-rate system (Table 15.2),Exchange rate systems,Exchange-Rate PracticesFloatin,Back,Legal tender:法定货币,Pegged exchange rates within horizontal bands:水平带内盯住汇率制度,Exchange rates within crawling bands: 带内爬行盯住汇率制度,BackLegal tender:法定货币Pegged ex,Back,A nation may choose different exchange rat
5、e system at different time.,BackA nation may choose differ,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,General practice until the 1970s (1946-1973)Primarily used by small, developing nations Currencies are anchored (pegged) to a key currencyKey currency is used to as a means of international settlementDeveloping nat
6、ions can stabilize the domestic-currency prices of their imports and exportsTo Exert restraint on domestic policies and reduce inflationMajor key currencies of the world (Table 15.3),Exchange rate systems,Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemGene,Back,Back,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,Anchoring (Pegging) to a si
7、ngle currencyDeveloping nations with a single industrial-country partnerAnchoring to a group or basket of currenciesDeveloping nations with more than one major trading partnerHelps to average out fluctuations Anchoring to the special drawing right (SDR)Basket of four currencies (Table 15.4)Increased
8、 stability,Continued,Exchange rate systems,Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemAnch,Back,The Special Drawing Right (SDR) is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement existing foreign exchange reservesIt serves as a unit of account for the IMFThe basket is to include ,in proportional amou
9、nts, the currencies of the members having the largest exporter of goods and services during the previous five years. It is the weighted average value of currencies of 4 IMF members: dollar, pound, euro, & yen,BackThe Special Drawing Right,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,Par value（平价） and official exchang
10、e rate（官方汇率）Governments assign their currencies a par value in terms of gold or other key currenciesDetermining official exchange rate by comparing the par values of two currencies,Continued,Exchange rate systems,Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemPar,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,Example 1:1ounce gold=$35 1oun
11、ce gold= 12.50The official exchange rate between dollar and pound is $2.80= 1Example 2:Bolivian central bank fix their peso at 20peso=US $1Ecuadors sucre is set at 10 sucres (苏克雷）=US $1The official exchange rate between the peso and sucre is 1peso=0.5 sucre,Continued,Exchange rate systems,Fixed Exch
12、ange-Rate SystemExam,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,Exchange-rate stabilization Set up an exchange-stabilization fund （外汇稳定基金）to defend the official ratePurchases and sales of foreign currencies to iron out short-term fluctuations (Figure 15.2)Fundamental disequilibriumOver the long run, the official ex
13、change rate and the market exchange rate move apart,Continued,Exchange rate systems,Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemExch,Back,Back,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,Devaluation（法定贬值）Home currencys exchange value depreciates, counteracting a payments deficitRevaluation（法定升值）Home currencys exchange value appreciat
14、es, counteracting a payments surplusExpenditure-switching instrumentsWork on relative prices to divert domestic and foreign expenditures between domestic and foreign goods,Continued,Exchange rate systems,Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemDeva,Fixed Exchange-Rate System,Decisions to be made before implementa
15、tionIf an adjustment in the official exchange rate is necessary to correct a payments disequilibriumWhen the adjustment will occurHow large the adjustment should be,Continued,Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemDeci,Exchange rate system alternatives,Devaluation and Revaluation,The terms devaluation and revalu
16、ation refer to a legal redefinition of a currencys par value under a system of fixed exchange rate.The terms depreciation and appreciation refer to the actual impact on the market exchange rate caused devaluation and revaluation or to changes in an exchange rate stemming from changes in the supply o
17、f or demand for foreign exchanges.,Exchange rate system alternati,Devaluation and revaluation,Devaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impact,In the legal sense, a devaluation or revaluation occurs when the home country redefines its currency price of the official numeraireThe economic effect of
18、the par values redefinition is the impact on the market rate of exchange.,Devaluation and revaluationDev,Devaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impact,Devaluation and revaluation,Devaluation/revaluation: legal,Devaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impact,Devaluation and revaluation,Devalu
19、ation/revaluation: legal,A devaluation in the legal sense does not necessarily ensure a devaluation in the economic sense. It occurs only if other nations do not retaliate by initiating offsetting devaluations of their own.Currency devaluations do have foreign repercussions similar to those of domes
20、tic policies.,Devaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impact,Devaluation and revaluation,A devaluation in the legal sen,Bretton woods system,Bretton Woods System of Fixed Exchange Rates,Adjustable pegged rates (1946-1973)The value of the dollar was pegged to gold and the dollar was convertible t
21、o gold at the mint parity rate. (1ounce=35$)Other nations peg the value of their currencies to the dollar and freely convert their currencies for the dollar at the pegged value.,Bretton woods systemBretton Wo,Double Hook System,Double Hook System,Bretton woods system,Bretton Woods System of Fixed Ex
22、change Rates,Adjustable pegged rates (1946-1973)Market exchange rates are kept within a band of 1 percent on either side of parity. In 1971, the margin were widen to 2.25.When fundamental disequilibrium occurs, member nations can repeg its exchange rate. up to 10 percent without permission from IMF
23、and by greater then 10 percent with the IMFs permission,Bretton woods systemBretton Wo,Adjustable pegged rates,Bretton woods system,Adjustable pegged rate,Bretton woods system,Adjustable pegged rates,ShortcomingsAdjustments in prices and incomes often conflicted with domestic-stabilization objective
24、s.Devaluation seemed to indicate a failure of domestic policies and a loss of international prestige.It is difficulty to estimating the new equilibrium rate.Once the market exchange rate reached the margin of the permissible band around parity, it in effect became a rigid rate .,Bretton woods system
25、Adjustable,Bretton woods system,Adjustable pegged rates,The defects in the Bretton Woods systemThe Triffin dilemma / 特里芬两难The inherent conflict of the U.S. Dollar being both a national currency and an international currency. Dilemma of liquidity(清偿力) and confidence,Bretton woods systemAdjustable,Bre
26、tton woods system,Adjustable pegged rates,The defects in the Bretton Woods system1960年，美国耶鲁大学教授特里芬在其著作黄金与美元危机中指出：布雷顿森林制度以一国货币作为主要国际储备货币，在黄金生产停滞的情况下，国际储备的供应完全取决于美国的国际收支状况：美国的国际收支保持顺差，国际储备资产不敷国际贸易发展的需要；美国的国际收支保持逆差，国际储备资产过剩，美元发生危机，危及国际货币制度。这种难以解决的内在矛盾，国际经济学界称之为“特里芬难题”，它决定了布雷顿森林体系的不稳定性。,Bretton woods sy
27、stemAdjustable,U.S. run deficits U.S. run surplus,liquidity,confidence,Dollar shortage 1944-1958; dollar glut 1959-1971,Bretton woods system,Adjustable pegged rates,U.S. run deficits liquiditycon,Dollar value per ounce of gold,1944 1971 1973,1盎司值美元,35,38,42.22,脱钩浮动,Bretton woods system,Adjustable pe
28、gged rates,Dollar value per ounce of gol,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization,A currency board is a monetary authority that issues notes and coins convertible into a foreign anchor currency at a fixed exchange rateThe rate is usually set in law, and the board m
29、ust have foreign exchange reserves large enough to cover the domestic currency in circulationPut another way, the domestic money supply is limited by the amount of foreign reserves on hand,Stabilizing developing country,A currency board exists when a countrys central bank commits to back its monetar
30、y base its money supply entirely with foreign reserves at all times.This means that a unit of domestic currency cannot be introduced into the economy without an additional unit of foreign exchange reserves being obtained first.Currency boards do not make loans or finance government deficits,Stabiliz
31、ing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization,A currency board exists when a,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization,The major benefits of the currency-board system are:Making a nations currency and exchange-rate regimes more rule-bound and p
32、redictablePlacing an upper bound on the nations base money supplyArresting any tendencies in an economy toward inflationForcing the government to restrict its borrowing to what foreign and domestic lenders are willing to lend it at market interest ratesEngendering confidence in the soundness of the
33、nations moneyCreating confidence and promoting trade investment, and economic growth,Stabilizing developing country,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),Concerns about currency boards:It prevents a country from pursuing a discretionary monetary policy a
34、nd reduces its economic independence.It lacks a lender of last resort.It creates a colonial relationship with the anchor currency.,Stabilizing developing country,1983年10月15日，港英政府对港币发行和汇率制度作出的安排：要求发钞银行（汇丰银行和渣达银行，1993年中国银行香港分行也成为发钞银行）在增发港元纸币时，必须按1美元兑7.8港元的比价向外汇基金缴纳等值美元，以换取港元的负债证明书，作为发钞的法定准备金，这一安排标志着香港
35、联系汇率制的诞生。因此，香港的联系汇率制实质上是美元汇兑本位制。,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),1983年10月15日，港英政府对港币发行和汇率制度作出的安,当港元现钞从流通中回笼后，发钞行可以用同样的比价向外汇基金换回美元，同时赎回负债证明书；发钞行以同样的方式为其他银行提供和收回港元现钞；1美元兑换7.8港元的固定比价只适用于发钞行和外汇基金之间，发钞行和其他银行之间以及银行同业、银行与客户之间的港元交易全部按市场汇率进行。,Stabilizing de
36、veloping country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),当港元现钞从流通中回笼后，发钞行可以用同样的比价向外汇基金换, 香港的联系汇率制以美元为锚货币；官方汇率 1美元：7.8港元商业银行发行港元，100%美元发行准备发行汇率与市场汇率并存,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),Stabilizing developing country currencies, 香港的联系汇率制一般发行银行外汇基金负债证明书1:7.8,1）美元流动均衡机制。当港元被抛售或资本流出导
37、致美元减少时，由于美元减少，发钞银行不仅不能增发港币，还须向外汇基金交回负债证明书赎回美元，导致基础货币减少。由于货币的乘数效应，货币供应量将成倍数减少，而这又将导致利率上升，物价趋于下降，最终使港元趋于稳定。2）套利机制。,香港的联系汇率制有两个内在的自我调节机制：,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),1）美元流动均衡机制。香港的联系汇率制有两个内在的自我调节机,香港联系汇率制的两个内在的自我调节机制：1. 国际收支的自动调节机制 2. 套利机制,国际收支,发行
38、准备,货币供应量,物价、利率,美元升值美元贬值,退美元买港元退港元买美元,美元供给增加美元供给减少,美元贬值美元升值,香港联系汇率制的两个内在的自我调节机制：国际收支发行准备,2、香港联系汇率制的利弊,联系汇率制的最大优点有利于香港金融的稳定，而市场汇率围绕联系汇率窄幅波动的运行也有助于香港国际金融中心，国际贸易中心和国际航运中心地位的巩固和加强，增强市场信心。,2）套利机制。,金管局从体制上提供了维护联系汇率制的保障。,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),2、香
39、港联系汇率制的利弊 联系汇率制的最大优点2）套利机制。,联系汇率制度的弱点联系汇率使香港的经济行为以及利率货币供应量等指标过分依赖和受制于美国，从而严重削弱了运用利率和货币供应量杠杆调节本地区经济的能力。同时，联系汇率也使通过汇率调节国际收支的功能无从发挥。,2、香港联系汇率制的利弊,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),联系汇率制度的弱点2、香港联系汇率制的利弊 Stabiliz,Stabilizing developing country currencies,
40、Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),Dollarization: residents of a country use the U.S. dollar alongside or instead of their local currencyUnofficial dollarization (partial dollarization): residents hold assets and bank accounts denominated in dollars Official dollarization: U.S. dollar replace
41、s local currency; occurred in U.S. Virgin Islands, the Marshall islands, Ecuador etc.,Stabilizing developing country,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),The reasons why dollarize:Countries use dollarization to reduce risks for investors and avoid probl
42、ems with domestic inflation and devaluationsDecrease in transaction costs Greater openness results from a system where exchange controls are unnecessary and BOP crises are minimized.,Stabilizing developing country,Effects of Dollarization EcuadorAccepting the monetary policy of the Federal ReserveRi
43、sk that business cycles might not coincideFederal Reserve is not their lender of last resortLoss of seigniorageFreedom to decide how to spend its tax dollarsEcuador could establish its own tariffs, subsidies, and trade policiesConstraint: No recourse to printing local currency,Currency boards vs. do
44、llarization (contd),Stabilizing developing country currencies,Effects of Dollarization Ecu,Stabilizing developing country currencies,Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd),Implications of Dollarization for the U.S.For each dollar sent abroad, Americans enjoy a one-time increase in the amount of g
45、oods and services they are able to consumeThe USA gets an interest-free loan from other countriesUse of U.S. currency abroad might hinder the formulation and execution of monetary policy More pressure on the Federal Reserve to conduct policy according to the interests of Ecuador,Stabilizing developi
46、ng country,Floating Exchange Rates,Currency prices established in the foreign-exchange marketWithout restrictions imposed by government policiesEquilibrium exchange rate equates the demand for and supply of the home currency,Exchange rate system alternatives,Floating Exchange RatesCurrenc,Floating E
47、xchange Rates,Achieving market equilibriumExample: Foreign-exchange market in Swiss francs in the United States (Figure 15.3)Market equilibrium will be established at a point where the quantities of foreign exchange supplied and demanded are equal,Continued,Exchange rate system alternatives,Floating
48、 Exchange RatesAchievi,Back,Back,Floating Exchange Rates,Trade restrictions, jobs, and floating exchange ratesImport restrictions will gradually shift jobs from other industries to the protected industryNo significant impact on aggregate employmentShort-run employment gains in the protected industry
49、 will be offset by long-run employment losses in other industries,Continued,Exchange rate system alternatives,Floating Exchange RatesTrade r,Arguments For and Against Floating Rates,AdvantagesSimplicity Continuous adjustment in the balance of paymentsAdverse effects of prolonged disequilibriums are
50、minimizedPartially insulates the home economy from external forcesFreedom to pursue policies that promote domestic balanceDisadvantagesUnregulated market leads to wide fluctuations in currency valuesProhibitively high cost of hedgingFlexibility to set independent policies leading to inflationary bia
