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1、宏观经济学发展史,宏观经济学发展史,Classical Economics,Dates back to the late 1700s.Rooted in the laissez faire writings of Adam Smith,David Ricardo,and Jean Baptiste Say.,Classical EconomicsDates back,Classical Economics,Unemployment is a natural part of the business cycle.The economy is self-correcting.Most import
2、ant,there is no need for the government to intervene.,Classical EconomicsUnemploymen,The Classical EconomistsMeet the Great Depression,The Classical EconomistsMeet,The Great Depression,The stock market crashes in 1929.Gross Domestic Product fell by almost a third between 1929 and 1933.25%of the work
3、 force was unemployed.Business investment fell from about$16 billion in 1929 to$1 billion by 1933.,The Great DepressionThe stock,The Birth of Keynesian Economics,The Birth of Keynesian Economi,The Keynesian View,John Maynard Keynes flatly rejected the Classical notion of a self-correcting economy an
4、d warned that patiently waiting for the eventual recovery was fruitless because“in the long run,were all dead.”,The Keynesian ViewJohn Maynard,The Keynesian View,Keynes believed that under certain circumstances,the economy would not naturally rebound反弹 but simply stagnate淤塞 or,even worse,fall into a
5、 death spiral漩涡.,The Keynesian ViewKeynes belie,The Keynesian Cure,To Keynes,the only way to get the economy moving again was to prime注入 the economic pump 泵with increased government expenditures.Thus,fiscal policy was born and the Keynesian prescription became the underlying of Franklin Delano Roose
6、velts New Deal.,The Keynesian CureTo Keynes,t,The Kennedy Tax Cut,In 1962,Heller recommended to Kennedy that the President advocate a large tax cut to stimulate the sluggish偷懒的缓慢的 economy.Congress eventually agreed,and this Keynesian tax cut helped make the 1960s one of the most prosperous 繁荣decades
7、 in America.,The Kennedy Tax Cut In 1962,H,The Foundation of Stagflation,This fiscal stimulus laid the foundation for the emergence of stagflation simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment.,The Foundation of StagflationT,The Roots of Stagflation,The stagflation problem had it roots in Presid
8、ent Lyndon Johnsons stubbornness顽固的.,The Roots of StagflationThe st,The Roots of Stagflation,In the late 1960s,against the strong advice of his economic advisors,Johnson increased expenditures on the Vietnam War but refused to cut spending on his Great Society social welfare programs.This refusal he
9、lped spawn a virulent 剧毒的种子“demand pull”inflation.,The Roots of StagflationIn the,Demand-Pull Inflation,The essence of demand-pull inflation is“too much Money chasing too few goods,”and that exactly what happened when the U.S.tried to finance both“guns and butter”-both the Vietnam War and the Great
10、Society.,Demand-Pull InflationThe essen,Demand-Pull Inflation,Potential Output,Demand-Pull InflationPrice lev,Cost-Push Inflation,Cost-push or supply side inflation occurs when factors such as rapid increases in raw material prices or wage increases drive up production costs.This can happen as a res
11、ult of so-called“supply shocks”such as those experienced in the early 1970s.During this period such shocks included crop failures,a worldwide drought,and a quadrupling 四倍的of the world price of crude oil.,Cost-Push InflationCost-push o,Cost-Push Inflation,Potential Output,Cost-Push InflationPrice lev
12、el,A Budding Paradox悖论的萌芽,Prior to the 1970s,economists didnt believe you could even have both high inflation and high unemployment at the same time.If one went up,the other had to go down.But the 1970s proved economists wrong on this point and likewise exposed Keynesian economics as incapable of so
13、lving the new stagnation problem.,A Budding Paradox悖论的萌芽Prior to,The Keynesian Dilemma,Using expansionary policies to reduce unemployment simply created more inflation while using contractionary policies to curb制止 inflation only deepened the recession.That meant that the traditional Keynesian tools
14、could solve only half of the stagflation problem at any one time-and only by making the other half worse.,The Keynesian DilemmaUsing exp,The Rise of Monetarism,It was this inability of Keynesian economics to cope with应对 stagflation that set the stage for Professor Milton Friedmans Monetarist challen
15、ge to what had become the Keynesian orthodoxy正统学说.,The Rise of MonetarismIt was t,Friedmans Monetarist School,The problems of both inflation and recession may be traced to one thing-the rate of growth of the money supply.Inflation happens when the government prints too much money and recessions happ
16、en when it prints too little.,Friedmans Monetarist SchoolTh,The Monetarist Perspective,Stagflation is the inevitable 不可避免的result of activist fiscal and monetary policies that try to push the economy beyond its so-called“natural rate”or,more technically,its“lowest sustainable unemployment rate.”,The
17、Monetarist PerspectiveStag,This natural rate of unemployment is the lowest level of unemployment that can be attained without upward pressure on inflation.According to the Monetarists,expansionary attempts to go beyond this lowest sustainable unemployment rate may result in short run spurts 迸发of gro
18、wth.However,after each growth spurt,prices and wages rise and drag the economy back to its natural rate of unemployment.,This natural rate of unemploym,Some Bitter Medicine苦方,Over time,these futile无意的无效的 attempts to push the economy beyond its natural rate lead to an upward inflationary spiral.In th
19、is situation,Monetarists believe that the only way to wring inflation and inflationary expectations out of the economy is to have the actual unemployment rate rise above the natural rate of unemployment and that means inducing a recession.,Some Bitter Medicine苦方Over tim,Inducing a Recession,This is
20、at least one interpretation of what the Federal Reserve did beginning in 1979 under the Monetarist banner of setting monetary growth targets.Under Chairman Paul Volcker,the Fed adopted a sharply contractionary monetary policy and interest rates soared高扬提高 to over twenty percent.,Inducing a Recession
21、This is at,While the Feds bitter medicine worked,three years of hard economic times left a bitter taste in the mouths of the American people now hungry for a sweeter macroeconomic cure than either the Keynesians or Monetarists could offer.Enter stage right:supply side economics.,A Sweeter Economic C
22、ure,While the Feds bitter medicin,The Coming of Ronald Reagan,WITHOUT,The Coming of Ronald ReaganCut,The Supply Side Philosophy,On the surface,the supply side approach looks very similar to the kind of Keynesian tax cut prescribed in the 1960s to stimulate a sluggish economy.However,the supply sider
23、s viewed such tax cuts from a very different behavioral perspective.,The Supply Side PhilosophyOn t,The Behavioral Difference,Keynesianism,The Behavioral Difference,The Behavioral Difference,Supply Side Economics,The Behavioral Difference,A Lower Budget Deficit,The loss in tax revenues from the tax
24、cut would be less than offset by the increase in tax revenues from increased economic growth.Thus,under supply side economics,the budget deficit would actually be reduced.,A Lower Budget DeficitThe loss,The End Result,Unfortunately,that didnt happen.While the economy boomed so,too,did Americas budge
25、t deficit.And as the budget deficit soared,Americas trade deficit soared with it.,The End ResultUnfortunately,t,George Bushs Burden,These so-called“twin deficits”deeply concerned Reagans successor George Bush,particularly after the budget deficit jumped over$200 billion at the midpoint of his term i
26、n 1990,and the economy began to slide into recession.To Keynesians,this recession would have been a clear signal to engage in expansionary policy.However,in the Bush White House,Reagans Supply Side advisors had been supplanted代替 by so-called“New Classicals.”,George Bushs BurdenThese so-c,New Classic
27、al Economics,New Classical economics is based on the controversial有争议的 theory of“rational expectations.”This theory says that if you form your expectations“rationally,”you will take into account all available information including the future effects of activist fiscal and monetary policies.,New Clas
28、sical EconomicsNew Cla,Rational Expectations,The idea behind rational expectations is that such activist policies might be able to fool people for a while.However,after a while,people will learn from their experiences,and then you cant fool them at all.The central policy implication of this idea is
29、profound:rational expectations render activist fiscal and monetary policies completely ineffective so they should be abandoned.理性预期使财政和货币政策完全失效,Rational ExpectationsThe idea,Some Bad Politics,Well talk more about whether this theory is good economics or not in a later lesson,but it was clearly bad p
30、olitics at least for President Bush.Indeed,Bushs New Classical advisors flatly rejected any Keynesian“quick fix”to the deepening recession.Instead,they called for more“stable and systematic”policies based on long term goals rather than a continued reliance on“short-sighted discretionary 随意的reactions
31、.”,Some Bad PoliticsWell talk mo,The Economy Stupid,The Economy Stupid,Restored Confidence,What is perhaps most interesting about this transition of power is that Bill Clinton actually did very little to stimulate the economy.The mere fact,however,that Clinton promised a more activist approach helpe
32、d restore business and consumer confidence.,Restored ConfidenceWhat is per,At the same time,Congressional passage of Clintons deficit reduction legislation in 1993 sent Wall Street a clear signal that his Administration was serious about budget balance.Together,these factors helped accelerate a reco
33、very that had already begun by the end of Bushs term.These factors also set the stage for Clintons remarkably easy re-election in 1996 as well as the longest economic recovery in peace time history.,At the same time,Congressiona,On the Bright Side,As we enter a new millennium千年,the nations macroecon
34、omic magicians appear to be able to keep the unemployment rate within a relatively narrow band of tolerance容忍.,On the Bright SideAs we enter,Note how the amplitude 振幅of the business cycle has been considerably reduced since the wide-scale application of macroeconomic policies after World War II.,Not
35、e how the amplitude 振幅of th,Macroeconomics Big Questions,Is there any way to simultaneously stimulate economic growth,boost real income,and balance both the budget and trade deficits using the traditional tools of macroeconomics?Or will macroeconomics have to once more evolve to successfully solve t
36、he increasingly complex problems before us?,Macroeconomics Big QuestionsI,Towards the 21st Century,These are the major macroeconomic issues now faced by leaders around the globe.We will help you try to understand these important questions by teaching you the science-and art-of macroeconomics.,Towards the 21st CenturyThese,Economics is not something to be memorized but rather something to conceptualize使概念化.So as you study it,think about it too.Your job and your business might just depend upon it.,In The Meantime,Economics is not something to,
