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1、,Ecological Footprint&Ecological Carrying Capacity,1,“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors,we borrow it from our children”Haida proverb(with Kenyan,Chinese,&other Amerindian variants),一、两个关键术语,生态足迹Ecological footprint 生态承载力Ecological carrying capacity,Population/Environment principles,I=P
2、x A x T Impact=Population x Affluence x(/)Technology(Ehrlich and Holdren)Affluence includes consumption,waste and pollutionTechnology includes systems of providing water,food,shelter,energy,etc.Overpopulation occurs when:Too many people,at a given level of affluence and technology,deplete the resour
3、ces that support life and economies,andWhen they introduce more wastes than the environment can handle.When people exceed the carrying capacity of an area.,What is the Ecological Footprint?,The ecological footprint is an environmental accounting tool that is comprehensive,yet as an indicator relativ
4、ely simple and easy to understandThe Ecological Footprint measures how much nature we have,how much we use,and who uses it.It shows us how much biologically productive land and water a population(an individual,an organization,a city,a country,or all of humanity)requires to support current levels of
5、consumption and waste production,using prevailing technology.it translates data for the consumption of energy and material resources into the equivalent area of biologically productive habitat that would be required to offset their useit reveals the relative environmental effect of lifestyle choices
6、,Bioproductive segments,18%Biologically Productive Land,11%Deserts,Ice Caps and Barren Land,67%Low-ProductivityOcean,4%BiologicallyProductive Ocean,22%,Carrying Capacity,The maximum population of a given organism that a particular environment can sustain indefinitely,at a given level of resource ava
7、ilability,affluence and technology.May change,up or down,in response to changes of affluence(consumption,waste and pollution)or of technology(mechanisms that provide and use resources).Assumes stability without environmental damage.May be modified to improve environmental potential,or may be damaged
8、 by unwise resource or pollution practices.,二、生态足迹,Why calculate your Footprint?,Measuring our Ecological Footprint can help us identify what contributes the most to our Footprint,and how resources could be used more efficiently in order to secure our own wellbeing,as well as that of the rest of hum
9、ankind and the planet-both now and in the future.Calculating the Ecological Footprint for yourself,your household,office,school,shop or event helps to identify the environmental impacts of everyday activities and capture progress towards more sustainable practices.The results of your Ecological Foot
10、print may even motivate you to make a few changes to your lifestyle that will help to achieve reduced Ecological Footprints.,你的生态足迹是多少？,消费与生活质量？吃多少？吃什么？中国食物消费和请客习惯，日本？出行，轿车OR公共交通？自行车？你能为可持续发展做什么？学术研究可持续消费,小轿车、公共汽车、自行车所需面积对比,National Footprints,The size of a national ecological footprint depends upon
11、 four major factors:Population sizeStandard of living per capita consumption of energy and material resources,and of manufactured goods,food,and spaceper capita production of wasteTechnology being used this affects the efficiency of energy and material usageIssues related to social equityinequities
12、among social groups in lifestyle intensity(and poverty)aspirations of people to have a higher intensity of lifestyle,Ecological Footprints of Countries,ecological footprint(Gha/person),中国环境与发展国际合作委员会和WWF日前共同发布了中国生态足迹报告指出，自从二十世纪60年代以来，中国的人均生态足迹持续增长了约两倍。作为一个国家，中国消耗了全球生物承载力的15%，中国消耗的资源已超过自身生态系统所能提供资源的两
13、倍。报告指出，中国的人均生态足迹是1.6全球公顷，也就是说，平均每人需要1.6公顷具有生态生产力的土地来满足其生活方式的需要。中国的人均生态足迹在147个国家中列第69位。,data for 34 countries ranging in GDP and footprint from relatively low(e.g.,Bangladesh)to high(e.g.,Canada,U.S.A.),Per Capita Footprint and GDP,The per capita ecological footprint is closely related,in a statistic
14、al sense,to the per-capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)of a national economy,ecological footprint(Gha/person),GDP($US),2010年GDP中国:6.05万亿美美国：14.1万亿美元日本:5.5万亿美元,data for 34 countries ranging in energy use from relatively low(e.g.,Bangladesh)to high(e.g.,Canada,U.S.A.),The per capita ecological footprin
15、t is also closely related to the per capita energy consumption,including both non-renewable and potentially renewable sources,Per Capita Footprint and Energy Consumption,ecological footprint(Gha/person),energy use(tons oe/person.yr),data for 34 countries ranging in food consumption and ecological fo
16、otprint,The per capita ecological footprint is not so closely related to per-capita food consumption,which has a much greater subsistence basis than does either GDP or energy usage.Because food consumption is a basic human demand,it is relatively similar among countries.,Per Capita Footprint and Foo
17、d Consumption,food(kcal/person.day),ecological footprint(Gha/person),三、Ecological Carrying Capacity,The maximum population of a given organism that a particular environment can sustain indefinitely,at a given level of resource availability,affluence and technology.May change,up or down,in response t
18、o changes of affluence(consumption,waste and pollution)or of technology(mechanisms that provide and use resources).Assumes stability without environmental damage.May be modified to improve environmental potential,or may be damaged by unwise resource or pollution practices.,Eco-capacity,The ability o
19、f a country to satisfy the demands of its ecological footprint,also known as its eco-capacity,depends upon:the national area of accessible,ecologically productive land and waterthe relative productivity of that habitatthe intensity of management activities used in agriculture,forestry,hunting,and ot
20、her resource-related sectorshow much natural habitat is protected in ways that preclude its intensive use by humans(e.g.,in parks)resource degradation caused by over-harvesting,pollution,climate change,and other factorsresource and economic instabilities associated with natural disasters and societa
21、l conflicts,including war,地球上每一秒发生什么？What happens every second on earth?,2.4 个新生儿Two new-born babies28.6 吨金属、4 台电视、1.3 辆汽车-商品贸易额US$240,000二氧化碳排放 762 吨消失的森林面积0.6 公顷增加的沙漠面积78 m2,1900,2100,2003,2050,outcome：four earths in 2100,S shaped population curve-SUSTAINABLE,Starts small Accelerates to rapid grow
22、th phase Levels off to approach carrying capacity May fluctuate,but remains stable indefinitely,or until variables change to establish new carrying capacity,Pop.,Time,Carrying capacity,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,Developed countries,especially in Europe approach it Some US states are exceptions,far
23、exceeding carrying capacity Can change to unsustainable for a time due to any of the adverse factors characteristic of“J”nations and regions,BUT can be put back on sustainable course by sound policies,sound choices,sound practices,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,S shaped population curve-SUSTAINABLE 温哥华
24、的移民政策,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,Starts small Accelerates exponentially Peaks far above carrying capacity Collapses to new,much lower carrying capacity,Pop.,Time,Original carrying capacity,New carrying capacity,J shaped population curve UNSUSTAINABLE,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,Typical of many unde
25、veloped countriesOften occurs regionally due to:agricultural system collapse,food shortage persistent natural disasters poor environmental management(desertification,deforestation,soil erosion,pollution,etc.)rapid shift of population from rural to urban areaspoor choices for urban life,J shaped popu
26、lation curve UNSUSTAINABLE,Chinas Development Constraints,Population PressureDiminishing ResourcesIncreasing PollutionCompetitiveness in global marketsI=P*A*T,沙漠化中的中国 Disertization in China,煤矸石山,尾矿成灾,矸石山、尾矿河Gangue,金属废弃物Metal wastes,建筑垃圾Construction wastes,建筑垃圾与金属废弃物,河流、空气污染与固体废物境,中国式的毁田烧砖把生存的土地都破坏了,
27、毁田烧砖的景象Crop field,北京Beijing,水污染,return,思考？,中国的人口承载力应该为多少？如何看独生子女政策？你的建议？,四、Ecological Overshoot,The average global Ecological Footprint is 2.7 global hectares per person,while there are only 2.1 hectares of biologically productive area per person available on the planet.This is called overshoot.Much
28、 like spending more money than you earn,it is possible to exceed ecological limits for a while,but this deficit spending leads to the destruction of ecological assets on which our economy depends,such as depleted groundwater,collapsing fisheries,Carbon dioxide(CO2),accumulation in the atmosphere,and
29、 deforestation.,Ecological Capacity Available Per Capita,current bio-capacity(ha/person),Earth and Its Biosphere,ultimately,bio-capacity is set by the limits of the biosphere to support the human enterpriseEarths surface area is 51 billion haonly 15 B ha are terrestrialonly 10 B ha are economically“
30、productive”at the current human population,there is only 1.6 ha of bio-productive space available per global citizen(but without any reservation of habitat for nature)this space must service all biospheric needs,including those of other species and natural ecosystems,Ecological Overshoot,Global Foot
31、print Global Bio-capacityAn enormous human population(6.5 billion)+Intensive resource consumption=Resource depletion+Environmental degradation(pollution,damage to biodiversity,societal inequities)=Ecological Overshoot,In 2008,the Earth went into Overshoot on Tuesday 23 September the day we started u
32、sing all the resources nature will generate this year.,Ecological Overshoot,Global Footprint Global Bio-capacityecological overshoot has been the case since at least 1980at the global level,there is a 40%overshootbut it is 62%,if 12%of global space is used to conserve biodiversityan overshoot can on
33、ly be temporarily maintained,because natural capital becomes depleted and degradedclearly,Earth is being over-used by humansexamples supporting this view include:deforestation,erosion,exhaustion of fish stocks,increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases,groundwater depletion,and extinctions&endangerm
34、entecological overshoot is dangerous,particularly if it is used to try to maintain continued economic growththere are,however,sustainable alternatives to the potential catastrophes associated with ecological overshoot,Ecological Overshoot,The main contributor to overshoot is carbon dioxide emissions
35、.We are emitting this greenhouse gas faster than the planet can re-absorb it,so it is building up in the atmosphere contributing to climate change.While climate change may represent the most alarming symptom of overshoot,it also offers the greatest opportunity for change;virtually every action we ta
36、ke to reduce climate change also reduces overshoot,and vice versa.,Ecological Overshoot,Earth Overshoot means that we are reducing the ability of the earths land and water to support humans and other species into the future.If we conquer climate change without depleting other natural assets,we can r
37、ebalance our Earth budget.,Sustainability and Overshoot,The ecological footprint of a country may exceed the eco-capacity available within its boundaries,resulting in a national“ecological deficit”the country may suffer a degradation of its resource stocks and of environmental qualitymore commonly,t
38、here is an attempt to offset the national overshoot by importing goods and services from other countriesthis may be considered equivalent to“exporting”the resource depletion and environmental damage,ecological footprint and bio-capacity(ha/person),Countries with an Ecological Deficit,ecological foot
39、print and bio-capacity(ha/person),Countries with an Ecological“Surplus,A Canadian Footprint,Examining the factors contributing to the ecological footprint of an“average”Canadian helps to clarify the degree to which our lifestyle choices affect the environment.These data(ha/person)are based on a stud
40、y of the Canadian footprint by Wackernagel and Rees(1996).,1988-2007年辽宁省人均生态足迹(EF)、人均生态承载力(EC)、生态赤字(ED)变化趋势,张晶晶,胡晓钧*,杨继松.辽宁省生态足迹动态变化分析，安徽农业科学,2010,38(29):16407-16409,16494,1998-2007年辽宁省人均生态足迹构成,1998-2007年辽宁省万元GDP生态足迹变化趋势,丁祖荣，李 静，杭州市生态足迹计算模型与生态足迹分析，中国城市经济,2010年 10期,杭州市人均生态足迹构成变化情况,杭州市人均生态承载力构成变化情况,杭州
41、市人均生态赤字,The Canadian and China Footprint,Canada:the calculated footprint of an“average”Canadian is 6.4 Gha/personthe eco-capacity within the borders of Canada affords 14.4 ha/personthis leaves an ecological“surplus”of 8.0 ha/person,assuming the current population and lifestyle are maintainedGlobal:t
42、he global average footprint is 2.2 ha/personthe global bio-capacity affords 1.8 ha/personand so,there is an ecological“deficit”of 0.4 ha/personthis suggests that humans are living beyond the bio-capacity of Earth and its biosphere,China:1.6 Gha/person0.8Gha/personthis leaves an ecological“deficit”of
43、 0.8 ha/person,1900,2100,2003,2050,outcome：We need four earths in 2100,“A person should live in harmony with nature”Proverb of the Greek Stoic philosopher,Zeno(ca.336-265 BCE),Footprint calculator,http:/www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/calculators/http:/www.epa.vic.gov.au/ecologicalfootprint/calculators/default.asp,课后思考,什么是生态足迹和生态承载力？你能做什么？你应该做什么？如何看中国的人口政策？技术对生态足迹和生态承载力的影响？,中国的关键低碳技术28种关键技术,
