《YANTAIWANHUAPOLYURETHANES(600309)：IMPROVINGDEMANDCAPACITYRELEASEDRIVESGROWTH;REITERATECLBUY0130.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《YANTAIWANHUAPOLYURETHANES(600309)：IMPROVINGDEMANDCAPACITYRELEASEDRIVESGROWTH;REITERATECLBUY0130.ppt（14页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、19.66,January 30,2013ACTIONBuyYantai Wanhua Polyurethanes(600309.SS),Return Potential:21%,Equity Research,Improving demand,capacity release drives growth;reiterate CL-Buy,Source of opportunity,Investment Profile,We reiterate our Buy(CL)rating with a revised 12-month target price ofRmb19.66,implying
2、20%upside,based on the following:(1)We expectMDI demand to recover in 2013,growing about 7.4%.(2)Updatedinsulation fire standards allow for polyurethane materials;the opening of,LowGrowthReturns*MultipleVolatility,HighGrowthReturns*MultipleVolatility,the external wall insulation market should benefi
3、t MDI producers.(3),Percentile,20th,40th,60th,80th,100th,YTWH may gradually release capacity,driving revenue growth for severalyears.It plans to open 300k/600k MDI plants in 2013/14 and an acrylateplant in 4Q14.Its aniline self-supply ratio is also rising.(4)The valuationremains attractive,despite a
4、 25%rise in stock price since December.,Yantai Wanhua Polyurethanes(600309.SS)Asia Pacific Chemicals Peer Group Average*Returns=Return on Capital For a complete description of theinvestment profile measures please refer tothe disclosure section of this document.,Catalyst(1)Demand has improved in key
5、 downstream industries like fridges,freezers and cars.(2)YTWHs Ningbo Phase II plant will open in 2H13 andadd 300k tons of capacity;there will be no Chinese MDI capacity release in,Key dataPrice(Rmb)12 month price target(Rmb)Market cap(Rmb mn/US$mn)Foreign ownership(%),Current16.1935,008.2/5,626.0-,
6、1H13.MDI prices edged up in January and we expect prices to increase,12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,after the Chinese New Year as demand further improves and the spreadbetween MDI and aniline widens.(3)Polyurethane external wall insulationis in its infancy in China with strong prospects for development.
7、With thenew government emphasizing environmental issues,growth in thepolyurethane insulation market could exceed expectations.,EPS(Rmb)NewEPS revision(%)EPS growth(%)EPS(dil)(Rmb)NewP/E(X)P/B(X)EV/EBITDA(X)Dividend yield(%)ROE(%)CROCI(%),0.860.021.20.8618.94.811.81.927.620.0,1.08(0.1)26.41.0814.94.2
8、9.33.730.123.8,1.362.225.41.3611.93.37.92.031.223.0,1.570.415.41.5710.32.66.91.728.420.8,Valuation,We fine-tune our 2012/2013/2014 EPS estimates by-0.1%/2.2%/0.4%and,Price performance chart,consequently raise our 12-month target price by 3.4%to Rmb19.66,basedon 4.0 x 2013E PB and 31.2%ROE,implying 2
9、0%upside.Our target priceimplies 2013 PE of 14.5X,still below the three-year average.Key risksLower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand;greater-than-,17.016.516.015.515.014.514.013.513.012.5,3,0002,9002,8002,7002,6002,5002,4002,3002,2002,100,expected increase in raw material prices;lower-tha
10、n-expected marketpenetration for polyurethane insulation materials.,12.0Jan-12,May-12,Aug-12,Nov-12,2,000,INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP,Yantai Wanhua Polyurethanes(L),Shanghai SE A Share Index(R),Asia Pacific Buy ListAsia Pacific Conviction Buy List,Share price performance(%)Absolute,3 month18.8,6 mont
11、h 12 month24.9 14.9,Rel.to Shanghai SE A Share Index,3.7,12.8,13.1,Coverage View:CautiousTao Wei+86(21)2401-8923 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company LimitedThe Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,FactSet.Price as of 1/29/2013 close.Goldman Sachs does and seek
12、s to do business with companiescovered in its research reports.As a result,investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that couldaffect the objectivity of this report.Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision.For Reg AC
13、 certification and other importantdisclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,2,January 30,2013,Yantai Wanhua Polyurethanes(600309.SS),Yantai Wanhua Polyurethane
14、s:Summary Financials,Profit model(Rmb mn)Total revenueCost of goods soldSG&AR&DOther operating profit/(expense)EBITDADepreciation&amortizationEBITInterest incomeInterest expense,12/1113,662.3(9,549.2)(1,238.5)-671.13,545.7(671.1)2,874.626.4(176.0),12/12E16,440.0(11,190.2)(1,397.4)-810.94,663.2(810.9
15、)3,852.317.9(397.9),12/13E20,557.1(13,871.9)(1,685.7)-1,181.66,181.2(1,181.6)4,999.524.0(571.6),12/14E24,975.5(17,094.6)(1,998.0)-1,663.77,546.5(1,663.7)5,882.822.5(724.6),Balance sheet(Rmb mn)Cash&equivalentsAccounts receivableInventoryOther current assetsTotal current assetsNet PP&ENet intangibles
16、Total investmentsOther long-term assetsTotal assets,12/111,788.93,189.71,337.91,321.57,637.98,504.71,084.698.293.317,418.7,12/12E2,403.03,116.01,727.91,590.28,837.112,713.21,065.298.293.322,807.0,12/13E2,248.74,205.72,072.61,988.410,515.418,051.01,045.898.293.329,803.6,12/14E1,505.14,689.73,079.22,4
17、15.811,689.822,906.71,026.498.293.335,814.3,Income/(loss)from uncons.subs.,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,OthersPretax profitsIncome taxMinorities,89.92,814.9(419.5)(541.5),100.03,572.3(535.8)(692.3),100.04,552.0(682.8)(928.6),100.05,280.7(797.4)(1,089.4),Accounts payableShort-term debtOther current liabilitiesTot
18、al current liabilities,835.74,284.41,636.96,757.0,1,984.94,284.41,636.97,906.2,1,815.64,284.41,636.97,736.9,1,931.14,284.41,636.97,852.4,Long-term debt,2,423.7,4,923.7,8,923.7,10,923.7,Net income pre-preferred dividendsPreferred dividendsNet income(pre-exceptionals),1,853.90.01,853.9,2,344.20.02,344
19、.2,2,940.60.02,940.6,3,393.90.03,393.9,Other long-term liabilitiesTotal long-term liabilitiesTotal liabilities,22.42,446.19,203.1,22.44,946.112,852.3,22.48,946.116,683.0,22.410,946.118,798.5,Post-tax exceptionals,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,Net income,1,853.9,2,344.2,2,940.6,3,393.9,Preferred shares,0.0,0.0,0.0
20、,0.0,Total common equity,7,267.5,8,314.2,10,551.6,13,357.3,EPS(basic,pre-except)(Rmb),0.86,1.08,1.36,1.57,Minority interest,948.1,1,640.5,2,569.1,3,658.5,EPS(basic,post-except)(Rmb),0.86,1.08,1.36,1.57,EPS(diluted,post-except)(Rmb),0.86,1.08,1.36,1.57,Total liabilities&equity,17,418.7,22,807.0,29,80
21、3.6,35,814.3,DPS(Rmb),0.31,0.60,0.33,0.27,Dividend payout ratio(%),35.9,55.3,23.9,17.3,BVPS(Rmb),3.36,3.85,4.88,6.18,Free cash flow yield(%),(2.4),(1.6),(9.2),(5.6),Growth&margins(%)Sales growthEBITDA growthEBIT growthNet income growthEPS growthGross marginEBITDA marginEBIT margin,12/1144.989.485.32
22、1.221.230.126.021.0,12/12E20.331.534.026.426.431.928.423.4,12/13E25.032.629.825.425.432.530.124.3,12/14E21.522.117.715.415.431.630.223.6,RatiosCROCI(%)ROE(%)ROA(%)ROACE(%)Inventory daysReceivables daysPayable daysNet debt/equity(%),12/1120.027.612.221.047.971.135.159.9,12/12E23.830.111.722.550.070.0
23、46.068.4,12/13E23.031.211.221.250.065.050.083.5,12/14E20.828.410.318.555.065.040.080.5,Interest cover-EBIT(X),19.2,10.1,9.1,8.4,Cash flow statement(Rmb mn),12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,Valuation,12/11,12/12E,12/13E,12/14E,Net income pre-preferred dividends,1,853.9,2,344.2,2,940.6,3,393.9,D&A add-backM
24、inorities interests add-backNet(inc)/dec working capitalOther operating cash flowCash flow from operations,671.1541.5(624.6)(429.5)2,012.4,810.9692.3564.20.04,411.5,1,181.6928.6(2,001.8)0.03,049.0,1,663.71,089.4(1,802.5)0.04,344.5,P/E(analyst)(X)P/B(X)EV/EBITDA(X)EV/GCI(X)Dividend yield(%),18.94.811
25、.82.71.9,14.94.29.32.23.7,11.93.37.91.72.0,10.32.66.91.41.7,Capital expendituresAcquisitionsDivestituresOthersCash flow from investmentsDividends paid(common&pref)Inc/(dec)in debtCommon stock issuance(repurchase)Other financing cash flowsCash flow from financing,(2,895.9)0.00.026.1(2,869.8)(665.3)2,
26、233.00.0170.21,737.9,(5,000.0)0.00.00.0(5,000.0)(1,297.4)2,500.00.00.01,202.6,(6,500.0)0.00.00.0(6,500.0)(703.2)4,000.00.00.03,296.8,(6,500.0)0.00.00.0(6,500.0)(588.1)2,000.00.00.01,411.9,Total cash flow,880.5,614.1,(154.2),(743.6),Note:Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.,Sourc
27、e:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates.Analyst ContributorsTao WGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research,MDIdemand(000mt),3,2013 年 1 月 30 日,烟台万华(600309.SS),PIB market picking up,MDI demand likely to recover in 2013In 2012,macro decline led to a clear decrease in Chinese and global MDI deman
28、d growth.Production growth continued to fall yoy for refrigerators and freezers,the maindownstream demand sources for polymeric MDI,with refrigerator production down 2%yoy vs.15%growth yoy in 2011,the largest drop since 2008.As for other downstreamapplications,production remained flat for automotive
29、 and leather shoes and recoveredsignificantly for spandex and light leather.We estimate 2012 MDI demand growth inChina at 4.2%,a ten-year low.Looking ahead toward 2013,we believe traditional demand sources like refrigerators andfreezers will gradually improve against a wider backdrop of macro recove
30、ry,while thecancellation of Document 65(issued by the Fire Department of the Ministry of PublicSecurity)opens up the market for polyurethane insulation boards(PIB)use in externalwall insulation,making it a potential new long-term growth engine for polymeric MDI.Weestimate 2013 MDI demand growth in C
31、hina will recover to 7.4%.Exhibit 1:Our 2013E China MDI demand growth is 7.4%China MDI demand and growth estimates,2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000,40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,ChinaMDIdemand(000tons),yoychange(%),Source:China CC
32、M,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.Global MDI demand will improve from 2012Global MDI demand growth maintained its rapid pace in 2012 outside of Western Europeand China.Market growth in the US was driven by high property demand,while India,Southeast Asia,Eastern Europe and the Middle East are i
33、n a stage of economicdevelopment when spending on high-performance polyurethane materials is growingrapidly.However,with China and Western Europe accounting for around 52%of globalMDI demand,the declines in those regions had an effect on global MDI growth in 2012.Chinas economy is now beginning to r
34、ecover,and the key downstream industries ofhome appliances,automotive and textiles are improving to varying extents.Our ECSteam estimates economic growth in Europe will begin to recover in 4Q13,which webelieve will help 2013 global MDI demand to be stronger than 2012.高盛全球投资 研究,4,2013 年 1 月 30 日,烟台万华
35、(600309.SS),PIB market is starting over,which should benefit the MDI industryin the long termOn December 3,2012,the Fire Department of the Ministry of Public Security issued the“Notice regarding the fire management properties of external insulation materials(Document 350)”,which cancelled the implem
36、entation of the“Further clarification of thefire management requirements of external insulation materials(Document 65)”of March14,2011.The fire resistance standards of Document 65 acted as an effective ban onpolyurethane in the external insulation market,but Document 350 opens the door forpolyuretha
37、ne and other materials to enter the external wall insulation market.Organic materials used as external wall insulation materials have high insulation capacity,but poor fire resistance;non-organic materials are the reverse.Polyurethane insulationboards and polystyrene boards(EPS and XPS)are the main
38、organic materials used forexternal wall insulation.PIB outperforms polystyrene in insulation,fire resistance,waterresistance and product life,making it an ideal external wall insulation material.Thethermal conductivity of a PIB of a given thickness is around half that of a polystyreneboard of the sa
39、me thickness.After being treated for fire resistance,PIB can obtain a fireresistance grade of B1,meeting the requirements for use in external wall insulationmaterials.However,despite its advantages as an external insulation material,the highprice of PIB relative to polystyrene has made economics the
40、 main factor limiting thegrowth of PIB as an external insulating material.The energy consumption density of buildings in China is 3-5X that of developed countrieswith similar climactic conditions.Building-related energy consumption accounts for over40%of total energy consumption,making energy-saving
41、 in buildings a key component ofChinas energy efficiency and emissions reductions goals.Energy-efficient buildingsaccounts for only 23%of GFA under construction in Chinas cities and towns,whichmeans there is still significant room for further development.Since government energyconsumption restrictio
42、ns were not particularly strong before the 11th Five-Year Plan,andDocument 65 had restricted the use of organic materials like polyurethane,PIBs marketshare in China is less than 10%,vs.50%in the US,or over 30%in the UK and Japan.Given PIBs advantages as an insulation material and Chinas increasing
43、focus on energyefficiency,we are optimistic about the future development of PIB.We further believe thatPIB will become a major driver of MDI demand growth over the next several years.According to the“Special plan for energy efficient construction during the 12th Five-YearPlan”and the“Special plan fo
44、r green construction technology development during the12th Five-Year Plan”issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and theMinistry of Science and Technology in May 2012,and the“Green construction actionprogram”issued by the NDRC and MOHURD in January 2013,China has GFA underconstructi
45、on of approximately 44 bn sq m,with total new GFA built in cities and townsduring the 12th Five-Year Plan set to reach 4-5 bn sq m.During the 12th Five-Year Plan,GFA of 570 mn sq m will undergo energy efficiency remodeling(400 mn sq m ofresidential GFA in North China,50 mn sq m of residential GFA in
46、 South China,and 120mn sq m of public and public agency office space);at the same time,over 95%of newconstruction will be energy efficient.Not taking into account rural construction,andassuming external wall area is half of GFA,China will use 2.42 bn sq m of external wallinsulation panels during the
47、 12th Five-Year Plan.If PIB has a penetration rate of 20%,thiswill result in polymeric MDI demand of 407k tons during the 12th Five-Year Plan,anaverage of 81k tons per year,and 5.5%of our 2012E China MDI demand.高盛全球投资 研究,5,2013 年 1 月 30 日,烟台万华(600309.SS),Exhibit 2:Use of PIB as external wall insulat
48、ion will significantly increase MDI demand in ChinaIncreased MDI demand caused by PIB use in the 12th Five-Year Plan as a percentage of 2012 MDI demand,using variouspenetration rate assumptions,GFA-Existing buildings re-fit(100 mn sqm)GFA-new urban construction(100 mn sqm)Total GFA(100 mn sqm)Extern
49、al wall area(100 mn sqm)PIB penetration ratioPIB installation area(100 mn sqm)PIB thickness(cm)PIB density(kg/m3)PIB demand(10k ton)Implied poly MDI demand(10k ton)Annual poly MDI demand(10k ton)As of 2012 MDI demand(%),abc=a+b*0.95d=c*0.5ef=d*eghi=f*g*h*0.1j=i*0.6k=j*0.2l=k/149.2,5.74548.524.210%2.
50、443533.920.34.12.7%,5.74548.524.215%3.643550.930.56.14.1%,5.74548.524.220%4.843567.840.78.15.5%,5.74548.524.225%6.143584.850.910.26.8%,5.74548.524.230%7.3435101.761.012.28.2%,5.74548.524.235%8.5435118.771.214.29.5%,5.74548.524.240%9.7435135.781.416.310.9%,Note:1.Our estimates do not consider externa
