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1、The Flying pleaseChina Dev,text colour to Korea 2013 economic outlook,-,-,-,-,-,04 January 2013,abcGlobal Research,First Light AsiaProduction:Dutchman,changeShippingheadlineIndia Pharmaceuticals,WHITE,change headline row height to 1pt exactly before publishWhats Changed,Research Focus,Todays Events,
2、Ticker,Company,Rating,was,Currency,Target,was,EPS 12e,EPS 13e,Price,Price At Close,Up,MCT SP,Mapletree Commercial Trust,N,UW,SGD,1.25,1.20,4.80(a),5.60,1.22,02 Jan,Down 1138 HK,China Shipping Dev,UW(V),OW(V),HKD,4.20,4.70,-0.10(CNY)-0.04(CNY),4.99,03 Jan,2319 HK,Mengniu Dairy,UW(V),HKD,19.40,19.70,0
3、.80,0.86,22.35,02 Jan,Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimatesClick on title to open reportsResearch Focus,The Flying Dutchman-Our 2013 views on Asia in a nutshell,Herald van der Linde*,We anticipate Asia equities will deliver a 15-20%potential return in 2013 We expect these returns to be driven by an estima
4、ted 10-12%earnings growth and a modest rerating of equities Focus on value:China,Korea,Consumer Discretionary,Tech,China Shipping Dev(1138 HK)-Downgrade to UW(V):Reality check to end hope trade,Shishir Singh*,Stock rebounds 76%off multi-year lows on stabilised consensus estimates,one-off gains and e
5、quity market rally But,dry bulk remains grim and will be hit again in 2013 Downgrade to UW(V)from OW(V)and cut TP to HKD4.20 from HKD4.70;consensus EPS to slide again after Feb,India Pharmaceuticals-2013:Year after patent cliff,Girish Bakhru*,After a blockbuster 2012,2013 projected to be a year of f
6、ewer US patent expiriesIndian generics aim to compensate from growth led by India,RoW,and limited competition products in US2013 to see further step up in R we expect more stable earnings for companies with lower US exposure,Korea 2013 economic outlook-Five key questions,Ronald Man,Korea remains on
7、track to a gradual export-led recovery;we expect GDP to grow 3.8%in 2013,which is above consensus Price pressures are expected to return around mid-year and impose an upward bias on the Bank of Koreas policy rate A new President,falling property prices,FTA talks and more will keep Korean watchers on
8、 their toes throughout the year,Ticker,Event,Rating,Target,Price,Ticker,Event,NI Bbg,N/A,MosaicMinutes of FOMC MeetingChange in Private PayrollsChange in Nonfarm PayrollsUnemployment RateFactory OrdersISM Non-Manf.Composite,MOS USUSUSUSUSUSUS,Q2-DecDecDecNovDec,55.6-,Source:Bloomberg,HSBC estimates,
9、Sunayana Daga*,Research Marketing,+852 2822 4393,.hk,*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations,Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,View HSBC Global Research at:http:/,Disclaimer&Disclosu
10、resThis report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix,and the Disclaimer,which forms part of itDisclosures for companies can be accessed via the hyperlinks to the original published research,which can befound in the title,First Light Asia04 January 2013RegionalA little better e
11、ach time-What the latest PMIs mean for Asia,abcFrederic Neumann,The world industrial cycle steadily improved through December China and the US are leading the way,but smaller economies like Korea and Taiwan are bouncing back,too Alas,Europe and Japan are still heading the other way.This means that t
12、rade is lagging the general pick-up in activityChina&Hong Kong,Mengniu Dairy(2319 HK)-UW(V):Margin risk in the new five-year plan,Christopher K Leung*,While the new five-year plan could improve sales network coverage and supply chain management,we believe it is a timelyand costly process Distributio
13、n channel reform requires additional spending,and lessons from Yili suggest margin downside risk Maintain Underweight(V)rating and lower our target price to HKD19.40(from HKD19.70)to reflect earnings changes andEPS rolloverKorea,Korea Auto-Tougher domestic market drives greater pricing risk Strong K
14、RW continues to favour pricing on imports from both US and Japan HMC cutting MSRP on 5 high-end models in Korea in order to win back lost market share In this regard,the previously highlighted pricing risk for HMC seems inevitable,in our viewCoway(021240 KS)-OW:Margins set to improve in 2013,Paul Ch
15、oi*Karen Choi*,With MBK Partners now the new owner of Coway,its corporate governance risk will diminish significantly Although we expect 4Q12 earnings to miss,we believe investors should focus on margin improvement in 2013e Reiterate OW with unchanged TP of KRW50,000Taiwan,Radiant Opto-Electronics(6
16、176 TT)-OW(V):Buy on near-term weaknessASEANMapletree Commercial Trust(MCT SP)-Upgrade to N:Announces maiden acquisitionIndiaIndia Oil&Gas-Latest report on gas pricing is positive for the sectorDr.Reddys Lab.(DRRD IN)-OW:Propecia launched in US,what next?,Jerry Tsai*David Choo*Kumar Manish*Girish Ba
17、khru*,GlobalDislocation barometer for luxury,sporting goods and spirits-Analysis of 2012 share performance vs,earnings revisionsPrecious Metals-Lowering 2013 gold forecast,introducing 2015 forecastsMarket data,Antoine Belge*James Steel,Markets,HSBC,Last,5d%,Forecast GDP(%Yr)Int Rate USD vs CCY,HSBC,
18、Last,5d%,Commodities,HSBC,Last,5d%,HSI,24,000,23,399,3.80,US,1.7,0-0.25 EUR,1.35,1.31,-0.95,Oil,90.0,93.1,2.45,SHCOMPTAIEXKOSPI,2,5008,3002,300,2,2697,8372,019,5.102.621.90,ChinaTaiw anKorea,8.64.23.8,6.002.3753.25,CNYTWDKRW,6.1828.61,030.0,6.2329.001062,0.070.130.99,GoldCoal(Thermal)Steel(HRC Asia)
19、,1,85090711,167591N/A,0.900.06N/A,TOPIX,780,860,2.53,Japan,0.2,0-0.10 JPY,74.0,87.0,-1.07,Aluminium,2,150,2094,2.85,BSE 30,21,700,19,765,2.28,India,5.7,7.50,INR,50.0,54.49,0.82,Copper,7,500,8085,4.07,Source:Bloomberg,Economics03 January 2013A little better each timeWhat the latest PMIs mean for Asia
20、The world industrial cycle steadily improved through December.China and the US are leading the way,but smallereconomies like Korea and Taiwan are bouncing back,too.Alas,Europe and Japan are still heading the other way.Thismeans that trade is lagging the general pick-up in activity.Local demand in Ch
21、ina and the US are the main pillars ofdemand currently.Thats good for now,but,ultimately,its not good enough for the world economy to break out of itsfunk.Things are lukewarm at the moment and for the temperature to rise,the world needs Europe and Japan to turn,too.Take a look at our first heatmap.T
22、he colors are starting to diverge.In the US and the UK,along with much of emergingAsia,the shades are now leaning towards red.Granted,in some cases,including the Global PMI,the readings are barelyabove break-even level.Still,this is progress.Our first chart shows that new orders have risen further r
23、elative to inventories,warranting a further pick-up in production in emerging Asia in the coming months.In Japan and the Eurozone,however,theslump has deepened.There is some hope that over the course of this year,these economies will at least stabilize;but,its aprecarious situation in both cases.New
24、 orders mirror the trend.In China and India,HSBCs measures revealed a strong rise.In Korea and Taiwan,new orders atlast rose above 50.The US,too,held its ground,with the Markit reading rising especially strongly.But,take a look at Japan:new orders tumbled to 40.7 from 45 in November,a level not seen
25、 since the tsunami struck the countrys coast in 2011.In theEurozone,too,including in the twin engines of France and Germany,new orders tumbled further last month.Our second heatmap shows new export orders.These still lag the improvement in new orders.In fact,both measures for Chinafell last month,wi
26、th Koreas plunging,too(Taiwan saw a nice pick-up,but the vagaries of the tech cycle mean that this seriescan at times be misleading).Only India(no export power-house)and the US showed a convincing rise in new export orders.Amid all the encouragement from the latest bounce in global PMIs,discouraging
27、 new export orders is a reminder that theglobal economy still faces severe headwinds going into 2013(see chart 2 for the divergence of new orders and new exportorders).Local demand,therefore,is the main driver of growth at the moment,whether in Asia or in the United States.In the latter,the mini-dea
28、l over the fiscal cliff removes some,though certainly not all,uncertainty(the real hurdles,arguably,will haveto be taken before March).Encouragingly,for the most part,employment is holding up.In China,both PMIs showed someimprovement,with Korean and Taiwanese firms adding jobs as well last month,and
29、 even in Japan things were not quite as badlast month).A stand-out is Indonesia,where the employment component fell again in December,stuck below 50 for the second month in arow.This,however,may reflect more local uncertainties surrounding wage settlements than an outright buckling in businessconfid
30、ence.For emerging Asia more generally,the improvement in labour market conditions suggests that retail sales-hugelyvolatile of late-should hold up nicely(chart 3).In short,itll take some time before trade roars back.For the moment,Asiangrowth is more of a local affair.,Frederic Neumann|+85228224556|
31、FREDERICNEUMANNHSBC.COM.HKView HSBC Global Research at:http:/,Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited,HSBC Global ResearchEconomics,03 January 2013,Frederic Neumann,Co-head of Asian Economics Research,Heatmap 1:Headline PMIs and New Orders(source:Markit,CEIC,HSBC),2,HSB
32、C Global ResearchEconomics,03 January 2013,Heatmap 2:New export orders and employment(source:Markit,CEIC,HSBC),Chart 1:Asia ex Japan:new orders minus inventories and IP growth,3,HSBC Global ResearchEconomics,03 January 2013,Chart 2:Asia ex Japan:new orders minus new export orders,Chart 3:Asia ex Jap
33、an:PMI employment and real retail sales growth,4,Equity StrategyAsia PacificThe Flying DutchmanOur 2013 views on Asia in a nutshell,abcGlobal Research We anticipate Asia equities will delivera 15-20%potential return in 2013 We expect these returns to be driven byan estimated 10-12%earnings growthand
34、 a modest rerating of equities,Market,HSBCweighting,End-2013 Sectorindex target,HSBCweighting,Focus on value:China,Korea,ChinaKorea,OverweightOverweight,702,300,IT OverweightCons Discretionary Overweight,Consumer Discretionary,Tech,IndonesiaTaiwanIndiaSingaporeMalaysiaHong KongThailand,OverweightNeu
35、tralNeutralNeutralNeutralUnderweightUnderweight,5,0008,30021,7003,4701,83024,0001,475,EnergyFinancialsIndustrialsUtilitiesHealthcareMaterialsTelecoms,OverweightNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralUnderweightUnderweight,Equities can perform in a weak growth environment.Against a backdrop of low valuations an
36、d rising expectationsfor an economic growth recovery,we estimate Asian equitieswill deliver a 15-20%potential return in 2013.This will,Philippines,Underweight,6,240,Consumer Staples Underweight,likely be driven by 10-12%earnings growth across the region,Source:HSBC4 January 2013Herald van der Linde*
37、Head of Equity Strategy,Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,in the coming year,along with a rerating of 4-55%in shareprices and an average dividend yield of 4%.Earnings visibility improving.Consensus earningsestimates have stabilised for now,and it increasingly looksas
38、if they have bottomed.Value versus growth.There is still uncertainty regardingglobal growth.Thus,its not just about positioning for cyclicalgrowth,but also for a lower risk premium.This is why webelieve investors should construct portfolios with a bias tovalue instead of growth.Stock-picking themes.
39、Aside from preferring value to growth,our key themes are companies that(1)can grow as theirmarkets consolidate,(2)have margin power and effectivecost controls,and(3)enjoy structural growth.,+852 2996 6575,.hk,Market and sector calls.We overweight key value markets,Devendra Joshi*Equity Strategist,As
40、ia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited+852 2996 6592.hkView HSBC Global Research at:http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsIssuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Lim
41、itedDisclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analystcertifications in the Disclosureappendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it,and sectors,such as China,Korea,and Consumer Discretionary.We also like markets and sectors that are under-owned,suchas Techno
42、logy and,to a lesser extent,Indonesia.Risks.Events in Europe and global growth remain key risks.We also think possible monetary policy shifts in Japan are arisk,especially after the Liberal Democratic Partys recentwin in the countrys general elections.,40,30,20,10,Equity StrategyAsia Pacific4 Januar
43、y 20132013 views in a nutshell We expect a 15-20%potential return from Asia equities in 2013 Asia is likely to see 10-12%earnings growth,with a modest re-rating of equities driving these returns Look for value:China,Korea,Consumer Discretionary,Tech,abc,Much the sameEquities in a subdued growthenvir
44、onmentAgainst a subdued growth environment,the Asianequity markets were able to eke out double-digitreturns in 2012.We think the story will be similarin 2013.We expect Asian earnings to grow 10-12%in2013,a little higher than in 2012(for which wenow estimate 8.6%growth)and not far off thecurrent cons
45、ensus estimate of 13.6%.Compared with 12 months ago,a marked differenceis that some issues are now much clearer.Part ofthe credit for this decline in risk goes to the centralbanks in Europe and the US,which have removedthe major tail risks from equities by rolling outvarious easing policies.Japan co
46、uld join the clubif it changes its monetary stance in April.Regionally,the fog surrounding Asian earningsforecasts is slowly clearing.China PMI readingssuggest that the economy is slowly recovering,sorisks to corporate earnings in China are also onthe decline.Some serious risks remain;we havepreviou
47、sly written about the low quality ofChinese earnings and onshore cash flow issues.2,However,consensus 2012 estimates have declinedto levels where we believe analysts might havebecome too conservative.As a result,earnings estimates have,for now,stabilised.When it comes to earnings estimates,itincreas
48、ingly looks as if they have reached a bottom.Earnings momentum chart0-10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-20-306 mth 3 mth-40Source:MSCI,Thomson Reuters Datastream,HSBCThis is illustrated in the chart for three-and six-month earnings momentum.Analysts have not cutnumbers for
49、some months now and,as visibilityhas improved,the premium for visibility hasdeclined.Market volatility has already declined inrecent months.,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,May-12,Nov-12,Equity StrategyAsia Pacific4 January 2013Value versus growthWe think it is too ear
50、ly to call for a cyclical recovery.Global deleveraging implies continued below-trendgrowth in most parts of the West,while Chinasrebalancing suggests emerging Asias growth islikely to involve a lower growth trajectory.Thus,when looking at Asian equities,we thinkthe best strategy is not to position f
