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1、Jun-10,Jun-11,Sep-10,Sep-11,Jun-12,Dec-10,Dec-11,Feb-10,Mar-10,Feb-11,Mar-11,Aug-10,Aug-11,Mar-12,Nov-10,May-10,May-11,Nov-11,May-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Feb-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jul-12,4wk avg.,flow as,%of,-0.1,0.6,0.1,0.4,86,60,3,2,Deutsche BankMarkets
2、Research,Europe,PeriodicalWeekly Fund Flows,Date28 September 2012Lars Slomka,DVFAJan Rabe,Normalizing flows into Equity fundsvs.ongoing strength of Bond fundsThis weekly publication provides an overview of the latest flows in and out offunds on an international basis.,Strategist Strategist(+49)69 91
3、0-31942(+49)69 910-Flow data on funds(all including ETFs)Totalassets in 4-weekthe EPFR avg.,sample,flow,total,All central bank intervention could not keep investors risk appetite alive beyondtwo weeks as enthusiasm for equities observed over the past two weeks priorto last weeks report evaporated ag
4、ain and inflow momentum normalized overthe past one week.In contrast,bonds got broad based support with most fundcategories posting inflows.It appears as if investors are reluctant to furtherclimb up the risk ladder and seem contempt being over-proportionally exposedto EM as well as to Corporate HY
5、debt rather than DM equities(see chartbelow).YTD,Total equity funds witnessed negligible flows at+0.4%of theirassets vs.+8.5%into Total bond funds vs.outflows for MM funds at-2.7%.Over the past week(Wednesday close to Wednesday close),flows to Totalequity funds were broadly balanced.This follows two
6、 weeks of significantflows into this category.US equity funds witnessed marginal outflows.However,Western European equity funds held up relatively well with inflowsat 0.1%of their assets but clearly lost momentum compared to flows over thepast 2 weeks triggered by central bank intervention.Japan equ
7、ity funds alsosaw inflows at 0.4%of their assets.On the whole,flows into developed market,Total Equity FundsTotal Developed Market Equity FundsInternational Equity FundsUS Equity FundsWestern Europe Equity FundsJapan Equity FundsPacific Equity FundsTotal Emerging Market Equity FundsGlobal Emerging M
8、arket Equity FundsEMEA Equity fundsLatin America Equity FundsAsia ex-Japan FundsTotal Bond FundsInternational Bond FundsCorporate High Yield FundsUS Bond FundsWestern Europe Bond fundsGermany Bond fundsSwitzerland Bond fundsUnited Kingdom Bond fundsEmerging Markets Bond FundsAsia ex-Japan Bond funds
9、Emerging Europe Bond fundsLat-Am Bond funds,($bn)5,1084,4131,1692,564564783969438239412322,4876133151,253481226271721632,($mn)4,6773,8411,0582,214644-20-55836667-8278-1015,8903862,2002,31773-127-105-341,18651-3313,assets0.10.10.10.10.10.0-0.10.10.20.00.70.00.20.10.70.20.1-1.0-0.4-0.10.70.3-1.10.7,eq
10、uity funds were netted off.The situation was similar in emerging markets.Asia ex-JP,EMEA and Lat-Am(mainly driven by ETFs;compare Figure 11 andFigure 115)equity funds posted inflows at 0.3%,0.5%and 0.4%of their,Money Market FundsGlobal Sector FundsCommodities/Materials Sector FundsConsumer Goods Sec
11、tor FundsEnergy Sector Funds,3,150-3,063274 1,71025 11372 101,respective assets.However,diversified GEM equity funds,which contribute asignificant amount of AuMs to the overall EM equity fund category,registeredoutflows at 0.2%of their assets.Thus,EM equity flows were also balanced.Total bond funds
12、recorded another week of strong inflows at 0.3%of their totalassets supported by inflows to all major bond fund categories.Last week,EMbond funds as well as Corporate HY bonds funds both registered inflows forthe 16th consecutive week adding 0.7%and 0.5%to their assets respectively.Asia ex-JP and La
13、t-Am bond funds observed inflows at 0.5%and 0.7%of theirassets.In contrast,Emerging Europe bond funds witnessed outflows at 1.0%of their assets.US bond funds added another 0.3%to their assets.WesternEuropean regional bond funds posted modest inflows at 0.1%of their assets.,Financials Sector FundsHea
14、lthcare&Biotech Sector FundsReal Estate Sector FundsTechnology Sector FundsTelecom Sector FundsUtilities Sector FundsEuropean country fundsUKGermanyFranceItalySwitzerlandNetherlandsThematic FundsInflation Protected Bond FundsConvertible Bond FundsCurrency Funds,4436155456311146229326,500-1454138-6-8
15、8-122-193-1131-84-2118-2222,1.10.00.30.3-0.1-0.3-0.1-0.30.01.0-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.4,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Calculations,Flow momentum:Investors are reluctant to further climb up the risk ladder,Pan-European Equity Strategy Research Team,Investors moving up the risk ladder.,.but reluctant to own DM e
16、quities.,Lars SlomkaStrategist(+49)69 910-Jan RabeStrategist+49(69)910-,Michael BiggsStrategist(+44)20 754-Gareth EvansStrategist(+44)20 754-,MM,Government Bond,Corp.IG Bond,Corp.HY Bond,EM Bond,EM equities,DM equities,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are thos
17、e current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research re
18、ports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P
19、)072/04/2012.,28 September 2012Weekly Fund FlowsFlows into all fund classes(allincluding ETFs)a time seriesFigure 1:Heat map*showing the flows as%of total assets into various fund classes,Fund Category,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011 2012 YTD,Total Equity FundsTotal Developed Market Equity F
20、undsInternational Equity FundsUS Equity FundsWestern Europe Equity FundsJapan Equity FundsPacific Equity FundsTotal Emerging Market Equity FundsGlobal Emerging Market Equity FundsEMEA Equity fundsLatin America Equity FundsAsia Pacific Ex-Japan FundsTotal Bond FundsInternational Bond FundsCorporate H
21、igh Yield Bond FundsUS Bond FundsWestern Europe Bond fundsGermany Bond fundsSwitzerland Bond fundsUnited Kingdom Bond fundsEmerging Markets Debt FundsAsia ex-Japan Bond fundsEmerging Europe Bond fundsLat-Am Bond fundsMoney Market Funds,4%4%8%1%1%52%7%3%-10%27%10%21%14%12%NANANANANANA12%NANANANA,3%2%
22、6%-1%-1%44%-3%16%3%40%81%22%4%12%-18%-17%1%NANA22%24%4%40%-28%NA,3%2%7%-1%7%0%12%11%4%-6%27%27%8%10%-2%-9%58%NANA-17%18%3%-12%-22%NA,1%-1%6%0%-13%-27%-1%12%10%-2%46%14%-2%-2%-4%4%-8%NANA-141%9%16%-18%-33%NA,-3%-3%-4%0%-12%-18%-16%-7%-4%-8%-12%-9%-10%-24%-5%-2%-46%NANA-26%-21%-10%-37%-30%31%,2%-1%4%-
23、4%1%-19%17%27%32%11%48%21%24%25%40%23%29%NANA64%19%2%-19%19%-17%,2%0%1%0%-3%-3%8%16%23%20%4%10%16%23%15%10%-7%29%-65%8%54%71%-8%46%-15%,-1%0%1%0%-2%5%-8%-5%-1%-11%-12%-7%4%3%4%6%-28%25%-19%-3%7%25%-39%38%-4%,0.4%0.0%1.0%0.0%-3.0%7.9%-0.3%3.2%7.9%-1.9%-3.0%-1.9%8.5%3.5%17.4%9.2%-0.9%-10.0%-5.1%1.7%17
24、.2%8.7%-12.1%53.9%-2.7%,Colour Legend:,13%10%,8%5%to 10%,3%0%to 5%,-3%-5%to 0%,-8%-10%to-5%,-13%-10%,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,Page2,Deutsche Bank AG/London,28 September 2012Weekly Fund FlowsFlows by asset class funds(all including ETFs)Figure 2:Funds by asset classes-1 week,4week avera
25、ge and year-to-date flows,1.6%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.0%-0.4%-0.8%,Money Market Total Equity funds US Bond Funds Total Bond funds Emerging Market Corporate High,18.0%15.0%12.0%9.0%6.0%3.0%0.0%-3.0%-6.0%-9.0%,Funds,Debt funds,Yield funds,1-week flow(%of NAV)(LHS),4-week moving average(%of NAV)(LHS),YTD flows a
26、s a%of NAV(RHS),Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculationsFlows by regional equity funds(all including ETFs)Figure 3:Equity funds by region-1 week,4week average and year-to-date flows,0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.4%,10.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%-5.0%,Asia Pacific Ex-Ja
27、pan Funds,Japan EquityFunds,EMEA Equityfunds,US Equity Funds Western EuropeEquity Funds,Latin AmericaEquity Funds,1-week flow(%of NAV)(LHS)Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculationsDeutsche Bank AG/London,4-week moving average(%of NAV)(LHS),YTD flows as a%of NAV(RHS),Page3,Page4,DeutscheBankAG/London,We
28、eklyFundFlows,28September2012,Figure 4:Thematic map showing the 3 month flows(as%of total assets)into equity funds(including ETFs)by Geographic focus,Colour Legend25.0%,12.5%to 25.0%0.0%to 12.5%-12.5%to 0.0%,-25.0%to-12.5%-25.0%,Data Not Available,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Equity Strategy,Netherland
29、s,Switzerland,Germany,UK,France,Italy,28 September 2012Weekly Fund FlowsFlows by Global equity sector funds(all including ETFs)Figure 5:Equity funds by sector-1 week,4week average and year-to-date flows,1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.8%-1.0%-1.2%-1.4%,15.0%12.0%9.0%6.0%3.0%0.0%-3.
30、0%-6.0%-9.0%-12.0%-15.0%,Utilities,Telecom,HC&,Energy,Real Estate,Tech.,Consumer Comms./Financials,Biotech1-week flow(%of NAV)(LHS),4-week moving average(%of NAV)(LHS),Goods,MaterialsYTD flows as a%of NAV(RHS),Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculationsFlows by European country funds(all including ETFs)F
31、igure 6:Equity funds by European country-1 week,4week average and year-to-date flows,1.2%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.0%-0.3%-0.6%-0.9%,20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%,1-week flow(%of NAV)(LHS)Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculationsDeutsche Bank AG/London,4-week moving average(%of NAV)(LHS),YTD flows as a%
32、of NAV(RHS),Page5,Jun-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Jul-12,Aug-12,Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Mar-12,Nov-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,May-12,Mar-12,Aug-12,Dec-11,Sep-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Oct-11,Jul-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,May-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Fe
33、b-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Mar-12,Nov-11,Aug-12,Dec-11,Jun-12,Jul-12,Oct-11,Feb-12,Sep-11,Apr-12,May-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Sep-12,Jan-12,Oct-11,Nov-11,Jan-12,Dec-11,Jan-12,Apr-12,Sep-11,Sep-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Mar-12,Oct-11,May-12,Mar-12,May-12,Feb-12,Jul-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,28 September 2012Weekly Fund Flows,F
34、lows and PerformanceFigure 7:Cumulative 12M flow by assets(%of assets)30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%,page 1 of 1Figure 8:Cumulative 12-month total return of assets20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%,MSCI AC World,DB USD Aggregate Bond index,Total EquityCorp.High Yield bondsUS bonds,International bondsMoney Market
35、bondsEmerging bonds,DB Global High Yield Bond IndexJP Morgan EM Bond Index,iBoxx Treasuries 1-3 index,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Equity StrategyFigure 9:Cumulative 12M flow by equity regions(%ofassets)10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Equity StrategyFigure 10:Cumulative 12-month total retu
36、rn of equityregions25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%,US,Western Europe,Japan,Pacific,EM,MSCI USAMSCI Japan,MSCI EuropeMSCI Pacific,MSCI EM(Emerging Markets),Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Equity StrategyFigure 11:Cumulative 12M flow by EM equity regions(%of assets)0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-12%-14%,Source:EPFR
37、/Deutsche Bank Equity StrategyFigure 12:Cumulative 12-month total return of EM equityregions10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%,Lat-Am,EMEA,Asia-ex-Japan,MSCI EM Latin America,MSCI EM EMEA,MSCI EM Asia,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Equity StrategyPage6,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank Equity Strategy,Deutsche Bank AG/L
38、ondon,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Feb-12,Jan-12,Apr-12,Sep-11,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Aug-12,Dec-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Sep-11,Apr-12,Mar-12,Jan-12,May-12,Mar-12,Oct-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jul-12,Aug-12,Nov-11,Sep-12,Apr-12,May-12,Jun-12,Nov-11,Jul-12,Dec-11,Aug-12,
39、Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Mar-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Feb-12,Apr-12,Sep-11,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Jan-12,May-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jun-12,Jan-12,Jul-12,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,3,2,28 September 2012Weekly Fund Flows,Flows int
40、o Equity funds(all including ETFs)Figure 13:Flow into Total Equity Funds(%of assets)0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%,page 1 of 4Figure 14:Total Equity Market Liquidity PulseLiquidity Momentum Expanding210-1,-0.4%-0.5%,-2-3,Liquidity Momentum Contracting,Weekly flows as a%of NAVSource:EPFR/Deutsch
41、e Bank calculations,4-week average flows as a%of NAV,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,Figure 15:Flow into Total Developed Market EquityFunds(%of assets)0.4%,Figure 16:Total Developed Equity Market Liquidity Pulse3,0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.2%-0.3%-0.4%-0.5%,210-1-2-3,Liquidity Momentum Contracti
42、ng,Liquidity Momentum Expanding,Weekly flows as a%of NAVSource:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,4-week average flows as a%of NAV,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,Figure 17:Flow into Intl.Equity Funds(%of assets)0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%-0.1%,Figure 18:International Equity Market Liquidity Pulse3
43、Liquidity Momentum Expanding10-1,-0.2%-0.3%,-2-3,Liquidity Momentum Contracting,Weekly flows as a%of NAVSource:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculationsDeutsche Bank AG/London,4-week average flows as a%of NAV,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,Page7,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Feb-12,Jan-12,Sep-11,
44、Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jun-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Jul-12,Aug-12,Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Nov-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Mar-12,Dec-11,May-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Oct-11,Jul-12,May-12,Mar-12,Jun-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Jul-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12
45、,Jan-12,Apr-12,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Nov-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,May-12,Mar-12,Dec-11,Mar-12,May-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Jan-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Oct-11,Jul-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,3,2,28 September 2012Weekly Fund Flows,Flows into Equity funds(all including ETFs)Figure 19:Flow into US Equit
46、y Funds(%of assets)0.8%0.6%,page 2 of 4Figure 20:US Equity Market Liquidity PulseLiquidity Momentum Expanding2,0.4%10.2%,0.0%-0.2%-0.4%,0-1,-0.6%,-2-3,Liquidity Momentum Contracting,Weekly flows as a%of NAVSource:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,4-week average flows as a%of NAV,Source:EPFR/Deutsche B
47、ank calculations,Figure 21:Flow into Western Europe Equity Funds(%ofassets)0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%,Figure 22:Western Europe Equity Market Liquidity Pulse3Liquidity Momentum Expanding210-1,-0.8%,-2,Liquidity Momentum Contracting,-1.0%-3,Weekly flows as a%of NAVSource:EPFR/Deutsche Bank ca
48、lculations,4-week average flows as a%of NAV,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,Figure 23:Flow into Japan Equity Funds(%of assets)2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%,Figure 24:Japan Equity Market Liquidity Pulse3Liquidity Momentum Expanding10-1,-1.5%-2.0%,-2-3,Liquidity Momentum Contracting,Weekly flo
49、ws as a%of NAVSource:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculationsPage8,4-week average flows as a%of NAV,Source:EPFR/Deutsche Bank calculations,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Jun-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jul-12,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,Nov-11,Aug-12,Aug-12,Jun-12,Dec-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12
50、,Jul-12,Mar-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Jul-12,Aug-12,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,May-12,Mar-12,Sep-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,May-12,Jun-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Feb-12,Jan-12,Jul-12,Mar-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Feb-12,Sep-11,Mar-12,May-12,Sep-12,Jan-12,Oct-11,Apr-12,May-12,Jun-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Aug-12,Feb-1
