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1、,高盛集团,高盛集团,16,14,12,10,2012 年 11 月 29 日2013 年美股前景：有选择性的寻求增长点证券研究报告越过短期政治风险，关注增长前景改善,2013 年美国经济增势加速2012 年美国跌宕起伏的政治局势限制了企业的风险意愿，这一状况即将告一段,高思庭(212)902-6781,落。全面的“财政悬崖”将不会出现，但增税和联邦支出削减难以避免。我们预计 2013/14 年美国经济将增长 1.9%/2.9%。Stuart Kaiser,CFA,企业基本面支撑利润周期持续扩张我们预计 2013/14 年标普 500 企业收入增幅将超过 4%，利润率将徘徊在当前水平（8.8%
2、-9.0%）、盈利增幅超过 6%、市盈率将从 13.2 倍小幅扩张至 2013 年底的 13.8 倍。估值：12 个月目标点位 1575 点，潜在回报率 12%我们的 3/6/12 个月点位预测分别 1450/1500/1575 点。我们使用了六种估值方法，包括股息贴现模型、基于不确定性的市盈率、经周期调整的市盈率、市净率与净资产回报率的比较。把握增长的投资策略：市场、板块和股票(1)股票表现将领先国债；(2)股票回报率将超出债券收益率，但经风险因素调整后表现落后；(3)周期性板块表现将领先防御性板块（原材料、工业、IT 表现领先日常消费品、电信和医疗保健）；(4)选择经风险因素调整后的盈利增
3、长和预期回报率较高的双夏普比率股票(彭博代码：)；(6)金砖国家业务占比较高的股票表现将超过国内业务比重较高的股票()。我们的 2013 年标普 500 总回报率预测超出其他美国资产类别,(212)357-6308 Amanda Sneider,CFA(212)357-9860 高盛集团Krag Gregory,Ph.D.(212)357-3770 高盛集团Ben Snider(212)357-1744 高盛集团Peter Lewis(212)902-9693 高盛集团,14.2%,Goldman Sachs 2013 Total Return Forecasts7.9%,Rima Reddy
4、(801)884-4794 高盛集团,86,11.8,3.4,Risk/Price,420(2),2.4,5.7(1.1),YieldRates,1.6%1.41.4(1.1),(1.1)%0.6(1.7),S&P 500,High Yield,Investment Grade,5-year UST,资料来源：Compustat、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附
5、属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。本报告仅供分发给高盛机构客户。高盛集团,3,4,6,10,13,16,20,22,26,28,30,32,36,40,44,45,46,2,2012 年 11 月 29 日Table of ContentsOur 2013 equity market outlook:Target,path,risks,and strategiesPortfolio manager summaryInvestment recommendations:Our best ideas for 2013Stocks vs.bonds:Compelling
6、risk/rewardCredit vs.equity:Risk premiums reflect strong fundamentalsMoney flow:We forecast$200 billion of potential net equity inflowCash uses:How the S&P 500 will spend money in 2013 and 2014Sector allocation:Moderately cyclical with growth on the horizonRisk-reward in action:EPS and price Sharpe
7、ratios()US equities in a global context:Seek BRICs revenue exposureUS economic backdrop for 2013 and 2014Earnings,sales,and marginsValuation:Not demanding but not“cheap”Risks:Fiscal policy and politics top the listOur 2012 scorecardAppendix A:US Portfolio Strategy baskets on BloombergAppendix B:Grow
8、th&valuation for thematic and sector basketsAppendix C:Our recommended US Portfolio Strategy basketsDisclosure Appendix高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4248,美国,th,3,2012 年 11 月 29 日,美国,Our 2013 equity market outlook:Target,path,risks,and strategiesTarget:Our year-end 2013 S&P 500 target of 1575 suggests a potential p
9、rice gain of 12%and atotal return of roughly 14%including dividends.The market now trades at 13.2x our 2013 EPSforecast of$107,consistent with the average forward P/E multiple over the past five years.Ourvaluation models forecast that by year-end 2013 the forward multiple will have expanded by 5%to
10、13.8x our anticipated 2014 EPS of$114.If our target forecast is realized,it would rank in the59 percentile of annual returns since 1928.Path:We expect the forward path of the market will be highly uneven.S&P 500 drawdownequaled 16%in 2010 and 20%in 2011 and in 2012 the drawdown YTD has been 10%.The
11、highdrawdown during the past few years spurred risk-averse retail investors to shift assets into bondfunds and away from equities.This pattern will not reverse until ten-year US Treasury yields riseto 3%,in our view.Assuming the political/fiscal/debt ceiling drama is addressed by the end of 1Q,the 2
12、013 US equity market story will be one of steady acceleration in business activityaccompanied by increased CEO confidence which will lead to a 15%jump in cash M&A volumeand 11%hike in dividends.Looking further ahead,we anticipate the US economy will expand at anearly 3%rate in 2014 and earnings will
13、 rise by 6%.The prospect of continued economic andprofit growth in 2014 will lift the S&P 500 index in the second-half of 2013 to our year-end targetof 1575.Assumptions:Our 2013 outlook for the US stock market assumes the fiscal cliff is averted.Mostlikely,either late this year or early next a Congr
14、essional compromise will be reached to increasetaxes,reduce spending,and raise the federal debt ceiling.Stocks will rally if the White House andCongress establish a framework to address long-term fiscal imbalances.However,achievingcompromise in Washington,DC is difficult.The crisis may not be resolv
15、ed by year-end whichexplains our view that downside risk exists through December.Forecasts:S&P 500 sales,which are measured in nominal terms,will rise by 4.4%in 2013 and4.7%in 2014.We forecast net margins will remain static as they have for the past 18 months,hovering in the 8.8%-9.0%band through th
16、e end of 2014.Given this environment,S&P 500 EPSwill rise from$100 in 2012 to$107 in 2013 and$114 in 2014.Information Technology,Financials,and Energy will generate more than 50%of aggregate S&P 500 earnings.We estimate US realGDP grows by 1.9%next year and 2.9%in 2014(assuming 1.4%and 2.5%fiscal co
17、ntraction,respectively).Inflation remains subdued.Fed Funds rate is unchanged.Ten-year Treasury yieldsclimb to 2.2%next year and 2.8%by year-end 2014.Risks:The greatest positive catalyst that might lead us to raise our index forecast would be a“grand bargain”addressing the nations long-term fiscal i
18、mbalances along the lines of theSimpson-Bowles report.It would spark a P/E multiple expansion and a higher target.Downsiderisks include political discord in US or Europe,the effectiveness of the Feds QE policy,higher USTreasury yields,and the sustainability of record high profit margins.Strategies t
19、o selectively seek growth:1.Buy stocks/sell bonds:We strongly recommend asset re-allocation away from Treasuries andinto equities for investors with both an intermediate and long-term horizon.2.Equities should outperform credit,but not on a risk-adjusted basis:The US economy isslowly improving and g
20、rowth will be rewarded.Both stocks and high yield will benefit.3.Overweight some cyclicals(Industrials,Information Technology and Materials)andUnderweight some defensive sectors(Consumer Staples,Health Care,and Telecom).4.Own Double Sharpe Ratio stocks:We identify 30 companies with high risk-adjuste
21、d earningsgrowth and risk-adjusted expected price return(Bloomberg ticker:).5.BRICs vs.US sales exposure.Size,liquidity,balance sheet strength,high margins,andtransparent accounting benefit those US-domiciled stocks that sell to emerging markets.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1.,2.,3.,4.,5.,4,2012 年 11 月 29 日,美国,Po
22、rtfolio manager summaryFive investment strategies for 2013Growth,rather than yield and value,will drive equity returns in 2013.The turbulentpolitical environment that curtailed corporate risk-taking in 2012 will end.The full fiscal cliff willbe averted yet taxes will rise and federal spending will b
23、e reduced.Monetary policy will remainaccommodative.The pace of US economic growth will strengthen as 2013 progresses.Corporatesales will rise,margins will hover at current levels,earnings will climb and the P/E multiple willexpand modestly.This report focuses on five strategies we believe will drive
24、 portfolio managerperformance in 2013.Stocks will outperform Treasuries;Equities will beat credit returns in 2013,although not on a risk-adjusted basis;Cyclical sectors will beat defensive sectors(Tech,Materials,and Industrialswill outperform Consumer Staples,Telecom,and Health Care);Stocks with the
25、 highest combined earnings and price Sharpe ratios have highrisk-adjusted earnings visibility and risk-adjusted return prospects andshould outperform the SStocks with high BRICs revenue exposure will beat domestic-facing firms(vs.).Economic and policy backdrop for 2012The US economy is slowly healin
26、g.Goldman Sachs Economics forecasts real GDP growth willaccelerate from 1.9%in 2013 to 2.9%in 2014.Consensus estimates are similar at 2.0%and 2.8%,respectively.The FOMC central tendency of 2013 annual average GDP growth equals 2.3-2.8%.CoreCPI inflation will remain low at roughly 1.8%during each of
27、the next two years.Goldman Sachs Economics projects the unemployment rate will fall from the current 7.9%to 7.7%atyear-end 2013 and reach 7.0%by the end of 2014.Our forecast is roughly in line with the FOMC centraltendency.Accelerating growth and resolution of fiscal uncertainty will support job cre
28、ation and a steadyparticipation rate.Monetary policy will remain accommodative as the Fed continues to focus on growth and inflationremains benign.Goldman Sachs Economics expects a rate hike will not occur until early 2016(behindconsensus).We forecast ten-year Treasury yields will rise to 2.2%by the
29、 end of 2013,2.75%in 2014,3.25%in 2015 and 3.75%in 2016.The Euro Area will remain in recession for most of 2013 and reach just 1%growth in 2014.However,reduction of tail risk from the sovereign debt crisis will support a rebound in euro strength.Our 12-monthEUR/$forecast is 1.40 versus 1.30 spot.We
30、forecast Brent oil will remain relatively stable,reaching$110 by end-2013 before moving to$105 in2014.We expect gold will rise by over 10%by the end of 2013 to$1940/troy oz.S&P 500 earnings:$107 per share in 2013 and$107 in 2014We expect S&P 500 operating EPS of$100 in 2012,$107(+7%)in 2013 and$114(
31、+6%)in 2014.Information Technology,Financials,and Energy will collectively generate 51%of S&P 500 EPS in 2013.Our top-down estimates compare with bottom-up consensus of$100,$113 and$126,respectively.We forecast S&P 500 revenue will increase by 4.4%in 2013 and by 4.7%in 2014.Our sales estimatesare ro
32、ughly in-line with consensus.Every 100 bp shift in 2013 US GDP growth rate translates intoroughly$5 per share in 2013 EPS.Our profit margin forecast is the source of the greatest investable gap relative to consensus expectations.We expect margins will return to the previous high of 8.9%in 2013 and r
33、each 9.0%in 2014.Bottom-upconsensus expects margins to establish a new record high of 9.5%next year and reach 10.1%in 2014.Every 50 bp swing in net margins translates into roughly$5 per share in 2013 EPS.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2012 年 11 月 29 日,美国,Valuation:Our year-end 2013 price target for the S&P 500 is
34、 1575Our year-end 2013 estimate of fair value for the S&P 500 equals 1575,or 12%above the current level.We use our dividend discount model(DDM)as a guide for fair value.We also use an uncertainty-basedimplied P/E multiple,a macroeconomic valuation model,a cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple,and conside
35、rthe future implied price/book ratio that stems from our forecast ROE.S&P 500 currently trades about 13.2x our top-down 2013 EPS estimate.Our year-end 2013 targetreflects a roughly 5%multiple expansion to a P/E of 13.8x forward EPS.Our uncertainty-based P/E model suggests 10%downside and is far belo
36、w the valuations implied byboth our DDM and other models.Other macro or top-down approaches suggest 3-22%upside to S&P500 fair value.The unusually low interest rate environment means the Fed model implies the mostupside to share prices.Our ROE forecast of 17.3%in 2013 implies 21%upside to P/B valuat
37、ion given the historical relationshipbetween ROE and price-to-book valuation.Although this forecast represents a slight decline from ourforecast of a cycle peak at 17.5%in 2012,the level of ROE remains well above long-run averages andsupports a higher index valuation.Money flow:$200 billion will flo
38、w into US equities in 2013We forecast the US equity market will receive roughly$200 billion of net equity inflow from individuals,institutional investors,and companies in 2013.We expect net outflows of$475 billion from retail and individual owners in 2013,following the pattern ofthe past decade with
39、 direct ownership declining and indirect ownership rising.We expect$75 billion ofnet inflows into US equity ETFs.We forecast net equity inflows of$75 billion from mutual funds,retirement funds and life insurancecompanies.This amount includes contributions to,and asset re-allocation within defined be
40、nefit pensionfunds,defined contribution pension funds,and government retirement funds.In recent years,retirementfund assets have shifted out of direct equity allocations into indirect equity ownership through mutualfunds.Inflows from international investors should total$75 billion,consistent with th
41、e 10-year average.International investors own 13%of the US equity market,the highest percentage in the 67-year history ofthe data series.S&P 500 non-Financials firms hold almost$1.2 trillion in aggregate cash balances.We forecast totalcapital usage by S&P 500 firms will rise by 5%to$1.9 trillion in
42、2013.We expect S&P 500 firms willallocate 61%of capital spending for growth(cap-ex,R&D,and cash M&A)and return 39%toshareholders(buybacks and dividends).高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,trade.,6,2012 年 11 月 29 日,美国,Investment recommendations:Our best ideas for 2013Our best ideas for 2013 emphasize the outperformance
43、of equities relative to fixedincome and the idea that growth will be a key attribute of superior stock returns.Welook for exposure to growth in selective ways such as some,but not all,cyclical sectors,stockswith the best risk-adjusted earnings growth and potential return,and firms with high revenues
44、from BRICs as a sub-set of companies with large non-US revenues.1.Stocks will outperform Treasuries(see page 10)Stocks will outperform Treasuries.Mixed-asset investors must raise their equity allocationsgiven dim return prospects for Treasuries that currently yield 1.7%.In 2013,we forecast the 5-yea
45、r US Treasury note will return-1.1%compared with+14%for the S Telecom,and Health Care).An improving USeconomy should tilt investors towards growth-oriented sectors.We expect InformationTechnology and Materials will grow sales by 8%,2x the broad market.A pick-up in activity inChina will benefit the I
46、ndustrials sector.In contrast,Health Care has performed strongly for thepast two years and Telecom has a 76%dividend payout ratio which raises concerns.4.Earnings&price Sharpe Ratio stocks should outperform(p.26)We believe stocks with a high visibility of earnings growth coupled with strong risk-adj
47、usted return potential will perform well in an improving yet still uncertaineconomic environment.We recommend stocks with the highest combined earnings and priceSharpe ratios.We identify 30 stocks that offer the best combination of high risk-adjusted EPSgrowth and risk-adjusted price gains based on
48、consensus estimates.The median stock in ourbasket offers above average EPS growth through 2014 with half the earnings growth uncertaintyof the typical S&P 500 stock,while also offering superior risk adjusted potential return to theconsensus price target after adjusting for implied volatility.(Bloomb
49、erg ticker:).5.High BRICs sales()vs.high US sales()vs.the most domestic-facing firms().Our economists expect the BRICs will post strong and accelerating GDP growth in 2013 and2014,and the region also represents the largest gap in expectations between our forecasts and,Note:The ability to trade these
50、baskets will depend upon marketconditions,including liquidity andborrow constraints at the time of,consensus.At the same time,Europe remains in recession,US GDP growth is below trend,andmany US firms have struggled to grow revenues.Superior growth prospects,combined with in-line valuation and recent
