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1、,2012 年 9 月 3 日中国：投资组合策略研究企业盈利压力重重（摘要）证券研究报告,中期业绩弱于预期.中国上市公司最新的业绩表现疲软2012 年上半年 MSCI 中国指数每股盈利同比增长 2%（2011 年上半年/下半年增幅分别为 28%/9%），2012 年二季度沪深300 指数每股盈利同比增长也放缓至 2%（2011 年四季度/2012 年一季度增幅分,刘陈杰+86(10)6627-3324 北京高华证券有限责任公司执业证书编号:S1420511070002,别为-0.5%/4%）。剔除金融股后，上半年 MSCI 中国指数和二季度沪深 300 指数的盈利增长更差，分别为-14%和-1
2、7%，均差于前一阶段的表现。MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数盈利占到了市场全年预测的 49%/52%盈利进度均低于全年增长 4%/5%的市场预测。多个行业面临压力在我们所覆盖的公司中，A 股和 H 股板块趋势类似。周期性行业的盈利格外疲软，盈利增长显著低于全年市场预期，受到销售均价疲软和利润率下滑的双重影响。与之相反，银行和公用事业行业更为稳健。我们分析了 2000 多家 A 股上市企业，发现应收账款周转天数和库存周转天数正在上升，趋向于 09 年一季度水平。尽管毛利率和息税前利润率迄今为止仍较稳定，但融资成本的上升正在侵蚀企业盈利能力。盈利预测可能进一步下调，不过步伐放缓市场 GDP
3、预测继续下调，同时也伴随着盈利预测的下调。以国家统计局工业企业利润（一些行业 7 月份盈利增长进一步回落）等领先指标来衡量并考虑到净息差压力可能抑制银行业下半年盈利增长，我们认为三季度尽管比较基数较低，但盈利增长可能不会出现拐点。我们预计未来几个月盈利预测将进一步下调，不过步伐将有所放缓，因为当前市场情绪已经十分悲观。我们下调自上而下的股指盈利预测我们将 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数 2012/2013 年盈利增速预测从 6%/12%和4%/11%分别下调至 2%/9%和 1%/8%。新预测低于当前自下而上的市场预测（分别为 4%/9%和 5%/15%）。我们的分析表明，由于经营杠杆
4、逐渐抑制了利润率，企业盈利能力对 GDP 增长放缓高度敏感。我们预计大宗商品、油气、汽车、保险和工业板块的市场预测将下调，而公用事业和日用消费品板块的市场预测可能上调。*全文翻译随后提供北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。北京高华证券有限责任公司,2,2012 年 9 月 3 日Results overall earnings are still slow
5、ingChina equities posted a weak set of results the effects of the slowing economy clearly weighedon earnings.Both MXCN and CSI300 earnings for 1H12 and 2Q12 respectively barely rose yoy.Exclusive of the financials(where banks in particular were very robust),index earnings weredown double digits yoy
6、clearly trending well below the full year consensus estimates.Exhibit 1:MXCN companies 1H results were generally weak,especially non-financials,GS Sector,No.ofco.,1H earnings as%ofFY1H11A 1H12E,1H11A,Earnings growth(yoy)2H11A 2011A 1H12A,2012E,2013E,AutosBanksBuilding materialsChemicalsComputer hard
7、wareConsumer staplesMetals/miningIndustrialsInsuranceHealth careOil and gasPropertyRetailSemiconductorsSoftware and servicesSteel,aluminiumTelecomTransportationUtilitiesMSCI ChinaMSCI China ex financials,696421151984915121144107137105,50%53%50%72%54%55%60%55%60%36%51%46%51%83%51%171%50%92%56%53%53%,
8、47%56%32%11%18%47%37%45%44%51%44%49%37%-31%47%-113%49%1%45%49%43%,-10%40%185%72%-2%-11%91%27%15%49%20%45%45%350%47%-34%11%-31%9%28%19%,23%28%43%-34%-49%-8%-10%4%-32%165%3%27%11%-78%20%NM11%-96%-21%9%-3%,4%34%90%19%-31%-6%32%16%-9%107%11%34%26%6%33%-72%11%-70%-7%18%7%,4%20%-47%-87%-56%4%-38%-18%-10%1
9、0%-9%0%-16%NM20%NM5%-99%29%2%-14%,8%10%-31%-33%20%6%-9%-7%20%24%-5%9%-2%NM28%-91%3%31%47%4%-2%,16%2%26%43%21%22%3%8%24%19%9%12%18%NM24%1689%4%41%16%9%13%,Note:Non-December fiscal year end companies are excluded from this analysis.Earnings growth are calculated in USDSource:I/B/E/S,MSCI,GS Global ECS
10、 Research高华证券策略研究,3,2,800,3,2012 年 9 月 3 日Exhibit 2:CSI300 companies 2Q12 results were clearly weak slowing further vs 1Q12,CSI300 Index Sector,No.ofcompany,1H earnings as%of FY,Earnings growth(yoy),1H 11A,1H 12E,3Q2011,4Q2011,1Q2012,2Q2012,1H2012,2012E,2013E,Basic MaterialsConsumer DiscretionaryCon
11、sumer StapleEnergyBanksSecurities&OthersInsurancePropertyHealth CareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyTelecommunication ServicesUtilitiesOverallOverall(ex.Financials),4936182416141722741212300250,60.4%47.9%49.1%52.3%52.7%50.2%64.6%33.9%53.5%57.3%26.1%61.9%43.6%52.6%52.8%,40.2%55.6%50.3%52.0%53.9%50.2
12、%56.3%35.7%56.6%44.3%20.2%125.3%45.7%51.8%49.3%,59.0%6.1%32.0%7.8%26.8%-76.9%-25.9%14.1%21.4%-11.6%-59.7%117.8%-6.3%14.3%8.0%,-52.2%-6.4%94.7%-14.4%19.5%-24.1%-46.3%25.4%-16.7%-28.8%140.5%-93.3%12.3%-0.5%-14.2%,-53.0%-8.3%47.7%-3.4%19.8%-27.5%-19.1%3.7%-0.5%-28.4%7.8%407.9%-10.0%4.1%-11.5%,-40.8%-10
13、.3%31.0%-19.7%16.6%0.1%9.0%19.7%-4.8%-17.6%-29.2%-0.9%13.4%1.6%-17.3%,-46.0%-9.3%39.6%-11.2%18.1%-14.8%-6.3%13.6%-2.7%-22.7%-21.5%30.6%3.8%2.8%-14.5%,-18.9%-21.7%36.1%-10.7%15.7%-14.9%7.5%7.9%-8.0%-0.1%1.6%-35.5%-1.1%4.5%-8.4%,26.1%16.0%32.8%13.4%10.5%21.7%22.8%23.6%21.5%22.0%41.8%79.0%14.4%14.5%19.
14、0%,Source:Wind,GS Global ECS ResearchPlotting the growth trends against past quarters,we can see that the latest results show furtherdeceleration vs previous periods.Earnings have yet to find a clear inflection point,although therate of deceleration is a bit better than the prior period.,Exhibit 3:M
15、XCN earnings growth has seen furtherdeceleration,Exhibit 4:CSI300 profit growth dipped again after slightlyrecovering in 1Q12,MXCN earnings(RHS),MXCN,MXCN ex Financials,RHS,150%,(%),CSI300 profit growth YoY,(RMB bn),500,80%,Profit growth(yoy),1000,Quarterly Earnings(RHS),450,60%,900,100%,Earnings gr
16、owth for Overall,400,Earnings growth for Overall(ex.Financials)35070040%,600,50%,300,20%,500,250,0%-20%,400300200100,0%-50%,200150100,-40%,0,-100%,500,Mar-03,Sep-04,Mar-06,Sep-07,Mar-09,Sep-10,Mar-12,Source:MSCI,Bloomberg,GS Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究,Source:Wind,GS Global ECS Research,g,X,X,X,X,X,
17、X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,4,2012 年 9 月 3 日Sifting through the details more signs of stressCyclical sectors were clearly hit hardest and trending poorlyExhibits 1 and 2 clearly show that cyclical sectors suffered the most earnings pressures earnings declined across alm
18、ost all cyclical areas across the board.Industrials and materialscompanies had the largest concentration of earnings misses.As we dig through our coverageuniverse,we see that most earnings misses were due to both softer revenue(dragged down byfalling ASPs)as well as margin pressure.Exhibit 5:Earning
19、s misses were mainly due to revenue misses or gross margin squeezeList of GS covered offshore Chinese companies whose 1H12 earnings missed expectations,GS covered offshore Chinese companies whose 1H12 result missed expectation,Key item of beat/missnon-,Top line Gross,operatin operatin,Ticker2238 HK3
20、368 HK2331 HK1068 HK857 HK386 HK267 HK1138 HK1072 HK,Company nameGuangzhou Automobile Group CoParkson Retail GroupLi Ning CompanyChina Yurun Food GroupPetroChina(H)China Petroleum and Chemical(H)CITIC PacificChina Shipping Development(H)Dongfang Electrical Corporation(H),GICS sectorConsumer Discreti
21、onaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyEnergyIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrials,revenue margin g exp,Miss detailsweak JVMiss on sales&marginSales and GM missDelayed oil product pricing reformsDelayed oil product pricing reformsSteel price drop,property contract sales d
22、ownMiss on volumesMargin erosion and reduced outputs,1133 HK1101 HK368 HK1919 HK3808 HK3339 HK1211 HK144 HK2342 HK2038 HK2628 HK2233 HK1313 HK2600 HK3983 HK323 HK358 HK1393 HK1777 HK941 HK958 HK3800 HK,Harbin ElectricChina RongshengSinotrans ShippingChina COSCO Holdings(H)Sinotruk(Hong Kong)Lonking
23、HoldingsBYD CompanyChina Merchants HoldingsComba Telecom SystemsFoxconn International HoldingsChina Life Insurance CompanyWest China CementChina Resources Cement HoldingsAluminum Corporation of China(H)China BlueChemicalMaanshan Iron&Steel(H)Jiangxi Copper(H)Hidili IndustryFantasia Holding Group Co.
24、China Mobile(HK)Huaneng Renewables CorporationGCL-Poly Energy Holdings,IndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsInformation TechnologyInformation TechnologyInsuranceMaterialsMaterialsMaterialsMaterialsMaterialsMaterialsMaterialsReal EstateTelecommunicat
25、ion ServicesUtilitiesUtilities,XX,X,X,significant vessel delivery delaysLower costweak dry bulk segmentWeak HDT salesGM erosion and higher finance costhigher depreciation and low car salesLower container sales and ASPNegative GMLarge equity impairment lossesCement ASP decline and effective tax rate
26、riseCement ASP decline and effective tax rate risesharply lower realized ASP4ppt GM dropweaker solar farm business,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimatesDefensives generally fared a bit betterIn contrast,defensive sectors delivered stronger numbers
27、.Sectors that beat our expectationswere largely banks,consumption,energy,property and utilities.Airlines also fared well.Earningsbeats vs our estimates were due to a variety of reasons,such as falling coal price supporting IPPmargins,more aggressive cost cutting by the staples,etc.高华证券策略研究,g,X,X,X,X
28、,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,X,1),2),-,5,2012 年 9 月 3 日Exhibit 6:Majority of the better than expected earnings are from top line revenue and better cost controlList of GS covered offshore Chinese companies whose 1H12 earning
29、s beat expectations,GS covered offshore Chinese companies whose 1H12 result beat expectation,Key item of beat/missnon-,Top line Gross,operatin operatin,Ticker1988 HK3968 HK3618 HK939 HK3328 HK210 HK848 HKHTHT USVIPS USXUE US175 HK425 HK1114 HK322 HK506 HK151 HK220 HK135 HK2883 HK1898 HK1171 HK1088 H
30、K2607 HK3933 HK316 HK2357 HK753 HK1055 HK670 HK1157 HKBIDU USSina USSFUN US2018 HK3993 HK297 HK1109 HK1918 HK813 HK119 HK817 HK2380 HK1193 HK270 HK,Company nameChina Minsheng Banking(H)China Merchants Bank(H)Chongqing Rural Commercial BankChina Construction Bank(H)Bank of Communications(H)Daphne Int
31、ernational HoldingsMaoye International HoldingsChina Lodging Group,Ltd.Vipshop Holdings LimitedXueda Education GroupGeely Automobile HoldingsMinth GroupBrilliance China AutomotiveTingyi(Cayman Islands)HoldingsChina FoodsWant Want China HoldingsUni-President China Holdings Ltd.Kunlun Energy CompanyCh
32、ina Oilfield Services(H)China Coal Energy(H)Yanzhou Coal Mining(H)China Shenhua Energy(H)Shanghai Pharmaceuticals(H)The United LaboratoriesOrient Overseas InternationalAviChinaAir China(H)China Southern Airlines(H)China Eastern Airlines(H)Zoomlion(H)B,Inc.SINA CorporationSouFun Holdings LimitedAAC T
33、echnologiesChina Molybdenum Co.Sinofert HoldingsChina Resources LandSunac China HoldingsShimao PropertyPoly(Hong Kong)InvestmentsFranshion Properties(China)China Power InternationalChina Resources Gas GroupGuangdong Investment,GICS sectorBanksBanksBanksBanksBanksConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer Discre
34、tionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesConsumer StaplesConsumer StaplesConsumer StaplesEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergyHealth CareHealth CareIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsIndustrialsI
35、ndustrialsIndustrialsInformation TechnologyInformation TechnologyInformation TechnologyInformation TechnologyMaterialsMaterialsReal EstateReal EstateReal EstateReal EstateReal EstateUtilitiesUtilitiesUtilities,revenue margin g exp,Beat detailsnon-interest income and trading gain,cost controlhealthy
36、NII/credit costbeat on cost/provisionsSales and GM beatfast RevPAR growthimprovement on course hours and hourly feeHigher gov subsidies,higher GPM on product mixLower SG&A and FX/financial product gainbeat on JV growthBetter than expected GPMBetter SG&A controlBetter cost controlHigher associate inc
37、ome and lower effective taxE&P costs reducedLower cost rise and ASP riselower tax rateone-time revaluation gainCost controlBetter margin on cost disciplineConcrete machinery boost marginStrong eCommerce performanceTax reversal,govt grantStronger sales volume and lower costGPM up 5ppt and rental rev
38、upStrong core margin and presalesHigher than expected ASPMargin improvement and hydro power growthPipeline Gas salesHigher property revenue and property fair value gain,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimates,Gao Hua Securities Research estimatesKey trends from the A-share listed univer
39、se:working capitalstresses;rising financial chargesWe utilize the A-share listed companies data(approx 2400 companies)from Wind to analyze2Q12 corporate trends in China.The A-share data has two advantages over the H-share data:Available quarterly rather than by interimEasily downloadable across a va
40、riety of line items with better data qualityThe data shows us:Working capital strains are intensifying:AR days and inventory days are at highlevels,with strains more meaningful for private companies and smaller companies.Strains are particularly prominent in sectors such as capital goods,equipment a
41、ndconstruction services.Inventory levels have made new highs particularly for propertyand cyclical/industrial sectors.高华证券策略研究,Oct-07,Jul-06,Dec-06,Jul-11,Aug-03,Aug-08,Nov-04,Jun-09,Nov-09,Sep-05,Sep-10,Mar-03,May-07,Mar-08,Dec-11,Jun-04,Jan-04,Apr-05,Feb-06,Jan-09,Apr-10,Feb-11,Sep-05,Mar-03,Mar-0
42、8,Sep-10,Jan-04,Apr-05,Feb-06,Jul-06,Jan-09,Apr-10,Feb-11,May-07,Jul-11,May-12,Jun-04,Dec-06,Oct-07,Jun-09,Aug-03,Aug-08,Nov-04,Nov-09,Dec-11,May-12,-,-,75,80,65,70,55,60,90,90,80,6,2012 年 9 月 3 日Gross margin pressure is significant,though slightly better at the EBIT level:Particularly for larger ca
43、p,SOEs,gross margin deterioration is fairly clear off a higherbase(stresses centered on sectors such as steel,metals etc.).EBIT margin looks a bitmore resilient in comparison,probably partly helped by lower capex/revenue in therecent past.EBIT margins for SOEs are seeing more strain than for private
44、 companies,likely due to a larger component of costs being fixed(such as less flexibility to cutheadcount etc.).Financial charges/revenue has risen across the board,putting pressure onnet margins.Smaller cap companies have,not surprisingly,struggled more in this area.,Exhibit 7:A-share AR days rose
45、meaningfully in 2Q12,especially for private enterprises,Exhibit 8:A-share AR days for smaller caps also rosemore than that for large caps,(days),A-share Account receivable daysSOEs(ex.Financials)Private enterprise(ex.Financials)Total(ex.Financials),(days),A-share Account receivable daysLarge caps(ex
46、.Financials)Mid caps(ex.Financials)Small caps(ex.Financials),504540,3525,3020,15Mar-02,Mar-04,Mar-06,Mar-08,Mar-10,Mar-12,10Mar-02,Mar-04,Mar-06,Mar-08,Mar-10,Mar-12,Source:Wind,GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 9:A-share Inventory turnover days have alsobeen rising meaningfully,esp for private enterpri
47、ses,Source:Wind,GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 10:A-share inventory turnover days for small andmidcaps are far higher than for large caps,110,(days),Inventory turnover days,100,(days),Inventory turnover days,100,Overall(ex.Financials)SOEs(ex.Financials),Large caps(ex.Financials)Mid caps(ex.Financials
48、),80706050,Private enterprises(ex.Financials),70605040,Small caps(ex.Financials),3040,Source:Wind,GS Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究,Source:Wind,GS Global ECS Research,Telecom,Shipping,Retailing,Steel,Media,Overall(ex.Financials),Hotel&tourism,Construction,HealthCare,Airlines,Chemical,Property,Utilities
49、,Coal,TransportationInfrastructure,ConsumerDurables,Oil,gas&petrochemical,ConstructionMaterials,HouseholdProducts,Non-ferrousmetal,Food&beverage,Textile&Apparel,CapitalGoods,Auto&parts,Overall,IT,Airlines,Telecom,Coal,TransportationInfrastructure,Oil,gas&petrochemical,Shipping,Auto&parts,Utilities,C
50、onsumerDurables,Retailing,Chemical,Non-ferrousmetal,Steel,Overall(ex.Financials),HealthCare,IT&equipment/components,Overall,Food&beverage,Household&Personal,CapitalGoods,ConstructionMaterials,Construction,Textile&Apparel,Hotel&tourism&Others,Media,Property,Sep-05,Mar-03,Mar-08,Sep-10,Jan-04,Feb-06,A
