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1、,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,高盛集团,55%,2013 年 2 月 16 日美国,标普 500 黄皮书,证券研究报告,四季度业绩电话会议的四个主题(1)公司试图通过将利润率增长、而非收入增长放在优先位置来克服增长缓慢的问题；(2)公司致力于运用强劲的资产负债表并以多种方式管理过剩现金；(3)面对日趋稳定但仍存不确定性的经济环境，管理层态度谨慎；(4)政治不确定性促使部分公司持观望态度，尤其在税法问题上。主要节选内容请参阅本报告的第 4-11 页。,主题 1：维护高利润率的策略公司的关注点是不惜付出收入增长的代价以维护利润率。公司计
2、划控制成本、改善产品结构并扩大高利润率业务。主题 2：以多种方式利用现金,高思庭(212)902-6781 高盛集团Stuart Kaiser,CFA(212)357-6308,管理层以多种方式利用自由现金流和较高的现金余额。最引人注目的是，公司为养老金提供资金；加大广告和技术基建支出；以及向股东派发现金。Amanda Sneider,CFA,主题 3：对经济的看法喜忧参半一些公司表示经济出现复苏迹象，而另一些公司则表示挑战持续、信心不足。经济复苏仍存在不确定性使得许多公司在作出决策之前采取观望态度。主题 4：政治不确定性的影响，尤其是税收方面政治仍是企业面临的巨大障碍。美国和世界其他国家的的
3、大选及换届，加之财政悬崖、工资税上调以及潜在的企业税改革为各行各业的公司带来了不确定性。,(212)357-9860 高盛集团Ben Snider(212)357-1744 高盛集团Peter Lewis(212)902-9693,高盛集团美国企业税的法定和有效税率,60%,US Corporate Income Tax Rate,Rima Reddy(801)884-4794 高盛集团,50%,48%,45%40%,44%,Statutory,39%,35%,30%,Median S&P 500 Effective,30%,25%20%资料来源：OECD、Compustat、高盛全球经济、商
4、品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。,高盛集团,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,4,6,8,10,12,51,F,C,T,D,2,2013 年 2 月 16 日Table of ContentsKey takeaways from S&P 500 fourth-quarter 2012 conference call
5、sTheme 1:Strategizing for improved marginsTheme 2:Varied uses of cashTheme 3:Mixed views on the economyTheme 4:Impact of political uncertainty,particularly with taxesConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyMaterialsTelecom ServicesUtilitiesCo
6、mpanies mentioned in this report listed alphabetically,by sectorCompanies appear in order listed,1624273441566567,美国,Consumer Discretionary,Energy,Health Care,Information Technology,ABed Bath&BeyondFamily Dollar StoresFord Motor Co.McDonalds Corp.Nike Inc.Starbucks Corp.,AMZNBBBYFDOMCDNKESBUX,Camero
7、n IntlChevron Corp.Exxon Mobil Corp.Phillips 66Schlumberger Ltd.Financials,CAMCVXXOMPSXSLB,Aetna Inc.Baxter IntlCigna Corp.CovidienJohnson&JohnsonMerck&Co IncPfizer Inc.,AETBAXCICOVJNJMRKPFE,Apple Inc.Google Inc.International Bus.MachinesIntel Corp.Microsoft Corp.Oracle Corp.Paychex Inc.,AAPLGOOGIBM
8、INTCMSFTORCLPAYX,Starwood Hotels&Resorts HOT,ACE Ltd.,ACE,Thermo Fisher Scientific,TMO,Yum!Brands,YUM,American Express,AXP,UnitedHealth Group,UNH,Materials,BlackRock Inc.,BLK,Air Products&Chemicals,APD,Consumer Staples,Boston Properties,BXP,Industrials,Alcoa Inc.,AA,Coca-Cola Co.,KO,Citigroup Inc.,3
9、M Co.,MMM,Dow Chemical,DOW,ConAgra FoodsColgate-PalmoliveConstellation BrandsCostco WholesaleGeneral MillsHershey Co.Kimberly-Clark,CAGCLSTZCOSTGISHSYKMB,JPMorgan ChaseMorgan StanleySimon Property GroupState Street Corp.Travelers Cos.U.S.BancorpWells Fargo&Co.,JPMMSSPGSTTTRVUSBWFC,Cintas Corp.Dover
10、Corp.Fastenal Co.FedEx Corp.General ElectricHoneywell IntlIngersoll-Rand,CTASDOVFASTFDXGEHONIR,E.I.DuPontFreeport-McMoRan Cp&GldLyondellBasell Industries N.V.Monsanto Co.Owens-IllinoisPPG IndustriesSherwin-Williams,DDFCXLYBMONOIPPGSHW,Sysco Corp.,SYY,Lockheed Martin,LMT,Tyson FoodsWalgreen Co.,TSNWA
11、G,Norfolk SouthernParker-Hannifin CorpRobert Half Intl,NSCPHRHI,Telecommunication ServicesAT&T Inc.Verizon CommunicationsVZ,Southwest Airlines,LUV,UtilitiesDominion Resources,Southern Co.Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Prices in the body of this document are as of the market close of Februa
12、ry 12,2013.Stocks with ratings marked with an asterisk*are on the Americas Conviction List.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,SO,3,2013 年 2 月 16 日,美国,Key takeaways from S&P 500 fourth-quarter 2012 conference callsThe Summary of Commentary on Economic Conditions,commonly known as the“Beige Book,”is published by the Fede
13、ral Reserve eight times per year.In it,the 12regional Reserve branches offer anecdotal evidence on the current economic environment in theirrespective regions based on interviews with key business contacts,economists,market experts,and other sources.In our quarterly Beige Book publication,we review
14、the earnings transcripts ofcompanies in the S&P 500 to monitor the anecdotal evidence of fundamental andthematic trends.This quarters report contains excerpts from 80 companies that account for36%of total S&P 500 revenues and comprise 41%of the S&P 500 equity capitalization.Allmanagement comments on
15、 the following pages were taken verbatim from company transcripts asrecorded by Call Street and accessed via FactSet.All company data are as of February 12,2013.We highlight three major themes from 4Q 2012 earnings commentary:Theme 1:Strategies to protect high marginsCompanies are focused on ways to
16、 protect profitability as margins have fallen modestly fromhistorically high levels.Some companies are prioritizing margins over revenue growth whileothers are increasing growth in high margin segments and paying special attention to controllingcosts as well as product mix.Selected examples:AET,APD,
17、AAPL,BBBY,CAG,GE,HSY,KO,MS,NKE,ORCL,SLB,STZ,SYY,T,WAG,and YUM.Theme 2:Varied uses of cashCompanies discussed the variety of ways they are deploying strong balance sheets and largecash balances.Managements are increasing spending in capex,keeping cash overseas,buildinginfrastructure,being opportunist
18、ic about M&A,borrowing at low yields,and funding pension plans.There was little evidence of increased hiring.Selected examples:AAPL,BAX,BLK,BXP,CL,COST,GOOG,HON,HOT,HSY,IBM,JPM,LMT,LYB,MMM,SO,STZ,T,TSN,and XOM.Theme 3:Mixed views on the economyUncertainty persists,and companies continue to tread lig
19、htly in a slowly recoveringeconomy.By and large,corporate management remains cautious due to slow GDP growth,lowconsumer confidence,and a mixed holiday season.However,these challenges are wellunderstood by now and recent stability alongside a steady recovery in housing is generatingsome optimism.Sel
20、ected examples:APD,AXP,BLK,C,CTAS,DD,FDO,GE,JPM,LUV,MMM,RHI,SLB,SO,SYY,TMO,VZ,and WFC.Theme 4:Impact of political uncertainty,particularly with taxesPolitics both in the U.S.and internationally increased uncertainty.In the U.S.,theelection,a temporary resolution to the fiscal cliff,and increased pay
21、roll taxes left managementsfrustrated.In addition,concerns about the debt ceiling,sequestration,corporate tax reform andhealth care legislation are still hotly debated.Companies are cautiously optimistic about theleadership transition underway in China.Selected examples:AA,BLK,C,FDX,HON,HOT,KO,SO,ST
22、Z,T,TMO,TSN,and VZ.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,2013 年 2 月 16 日,美国,Theme 1:Strategizing for improved marginsCompanies are focused on ways to protect profitability as margins have fallenmodestly from historically high levels.Some companies are prioritizing margins overrevenue growth while others are increasing g
23、rowth in high margin segments and paying specialattention to controlling costs as well as product mix.,Aetna Inc.(AET)ConAgra Foods(CAG)General Electric(GE)Sysco Corp.(SYY)Air Products&Chemicals(APD)Apple Inc.(AAPL)Morgan Stanley(MS),Aetna Inc.(AET)We believe we can continue to generate revenue and
24、profit growth in 2013 inthis business as we price to medical cost trend and manage to our target margin.We remain committed to our disciplined pricing model,and when faced with achoice,we will continue to favor achieving target margins over membershipgrowth.ConAgra Foods(CAG)We have been very discip
25、lined with our pricing architecture,and in some cases,wevedeliberately chosen to improve profit margin instead of growing volume.General Electric(GE)We have every one of our teams working on lowering their structure,so having a moreconsolidated higher level P&Ls.We have everybody participating and p
26、utting their back officesinto centers of excellence and more shared services across the company.And we have acommon IT initiative across the company to reduce our general ledger and enterprise resourceplanning systems that is pretty much across the portfolio.So everybody is participating,everybody h
27、as cost targets and its pretty broadly based.Sysco Corp.(SYY)The relative improvement youre seeing on the margin trends is a combination of twothingstrying to strike the right balance in terms of growth and being responsive to ourcustomers and secondly is because the inflation has subsided.So were c
28、ontinuing to try togrow the business aggressively but be smart about it,and we need to continue to improve on themargin side.Air Products&Chemicals(APD)Ill also say that were focused on additional cost reductions beyond simply people reductions inEurope.Weve got a lot of initiatives going on from a
29、supply chain perspective as well as trying topush price.Apple Inc.(AAPL)We believe that there are two primary factors that will benefit gross margins sequentially.Firstand the largest of the two,our teams have made meaningful progress in reductions in productand transitory costs from the actions tha
30、t they have been working on to get down the costcurve.And second,we expect a more typical level of deferred revenue from device sales.Morgan Stanley(MS),Weve been operating so much under the basis that there wont be increased revenues.Obviously,the world is going to evolve so at some point thats not
31、 true.But,our approach hasbeen what can we control,how do we drive up margins in a flat revenue environment,andobviously through the expense line is how were doing that.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2013 年 2 月 16 日AT&T Inc.(T)Constellation Brands(STZ)Hershey Co.(HSY)Nike Inc.(NKE)Oracle Corp.(ORCL)Walgreen Co.(W
32、AG)Bed Bath&Beyond(BBBY)Yum!Brands(YUM)Schlumberger Ltd.(SLB)Coca-Cola Co.(KO),美国AT&T Inc.(T)As you know,the investments weve made to drive record smartphones sales impacted margins.While we continue to make progress in improving our margins,we also are more than willing toinvest in smartphones beca
33、use of the benefits they bring.Were doing a lot of work in terms of just margin expansion expect to expand our margins againthis year,and so our objective is to get our margins comparable to our competitors and alsoequalize share.Constellation Brands(STZ)And I would just point out that the pricing t
34、hat we took was sort of significantly below just thegeneral level of pricing thats been taken in the beer industry.So our pricing was below 2%overall,whereas the industry as a general proposition has taken more pricing than that.So thatcould be the reason why were really not seeing any slowdown or i
35、mpact of our pricing thus far,because it was a pretty modest increase.Hershey Co.(HSY)Weve seen moderation in some of our key commodities is also expected to really benefit itnext year.So that does play an important part.Nike Inc.(NKE)Although there continues to be a great deal of volatility in the
36、components of gross margin,we areseeing some encouraging trends.The pricing actions weve taken over the last five seasons,combined with easing raw material costs,are now more than offsetting the impact of ongoinglabor cost inflation.Oracle Corp.(ORCL)Selling systems loaded with Oracle intellectual p
37、roperty along with deemphasizing the selling oflow-margin,undifferentiated products like commodity x86 servers and LSI disk storage systems,products that contain no Oracle intellectual property,those two things have reshaped anddownsized our hardware business while making that business much more pro
38、fitable.Walgreen Co.(WAG)We achieved stable margins in a very promotional environment.Well continue to work to strikethe right optimal balance between sales and profitable growth.The key to retail is trying tobalance price and promotion in the right wayBed Bath&Beyond(BBBY)These decreases in the gro
39、ss profit margin as a percentage of net sales were primarily attributedto an increase in coupons,due to increases in both the redemptions,and the average couponamount as well as a shift in the mix of merchandise sold to lower margin categories.Yum!Brands(YUM)The biggest driver of margin pressure is
40、the same-store transaction decline.That weighed heavilyon us in the fourth quarter and we see that continuing into 2013.Schlumberger Ltd.(SLB)All the customers in North America that Im talking to are still looking for us to help them drivemore cost out of the system,whether that is efficiency or tec
41、hnologyCoca-Cola Co.(KO),We anticipate a more moderate year of commodity inflation with incremental costs related toour big four commodities.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,2013 年 2 月 16 日,美国,Theme 2:Varied uses of cashCompanies discussed the variety of ways they are deploying strong balance sheetsand large cash b
42、alances.Managements are increasing spending in capex,keeping cashoverseas,building infrastructure,being opportunistic about M&A,borrowing at low yields,andfunding pension plans.There was little evidence of increased hiring.,Starwood Hotels&Resorts(HOT)Colgate-Palmolive(CL)Constellation Brands(STZ)Co
43、stco Wholesale(COST)Hershey Co.(HSY)Tyson Foods(TSN)Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM)BlackRock Inc.(BLK)Boston Properties(BXP)JPMorgan Chase(JPM)高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Starwood Hotels using dividends and sharebuybacks to return cash to shareholders.Colgate-Palmolive(CL)We have taken advantage of a low interest rate en
44、vironment here in the U.S.to structure debtat very low coupon levels located some of our cash in overseas markets where we seedeployment opportunities and with that cash there,the investment returns we are getting are quiteelevated.Constellation Brands(STZ)We anticipate no change in how weve been ma
45、rketing the brands and or really the levels ofinvestment behind our marketing.Costco Wholesale(COST)The big culprit there is something Ive mentioned in the past few quarters that just continued toincrease is the IT modernization costs.We are now in full swing and that represented y-over-y a 7basis p
46、oint hit to SG&A.When I look at IT costs as a percent of sales y-over-y,they were up seven basis points.Hershey Co.(HSY)Advertising spending increased 27%in Q4,slightly greater than our expectation of a 20%increase,as we took advantage of media buying opportunities to support our core brands.A great
47、er percentage of that capital spending is non-U.S.in 2013.Tyson Foods(TSN)It would get back to what we always say about our priorities for excess cash and thats to invest ingrowth through CapEx and acquisitionswhich is what were looking for,and asking ourbusiness leaders to relook at some projects a
48、nd see if some of those might need to beaccelerated.Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM)Uses included additions to plant,property and equipment or PP&E of$10.1B and shareholderdistributions of$7.6B.Additional financing and investing activities increased our cash by$300mm.BlackRock Inc.(BLK)We are investing a lot
49、of money in technology.Were actually investing a lot of money right now interms of making sure were compliant with all the regulatory issues,which I think is going to be aburdenBoston Properties(BXP)Although we have significant cash balances of$1B at quarter end,we have highly productiveuses for the
50、 cash over the next couple of years.We also have$600mm of debt that comes due in2013 Given our funding requirements,we anticipate that well tap the capital markets sometimein the first half of the year.JPMorgan Chase(JPM),7,2013 年 2 月 16 日Baxter Intl(BAX)3M Co.(MMM)Honeywell Intl(HON)Lockheed Martin
