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1、,%ofNFIBParticipants,Dec-75,Dec-77,Dec-79,Dec-81,Dec-83,Dec-85,Dec-87,Dec-89,Dec-91,Dec-93,Dec-95,Dec-97,Dec-99,Dec-01,Dec-03,Dec-05,Dec-07,Dec-09,Dec-11,Dec-13,Dec-15,高盛集团,25,2012 年 11 月 8 日美国,标普 500 黄皮书,证券研究报告,三季度业绩电话会议的三个主题(1)鉴于实体经济面临的不确定性和“财政悬崖”带来的短期政策风险，管理层推迟了资本投资和员工招募并制定了更保守的目标；(2)企业面临全球增长放缓的前
2、景：美国增长停滞、欧洲陷入衰退、中国政策不明；(3)许多企业已采取强有力的行动来维持高利润率以应对收入增长平淡、原材料成本上升和客户支出缩减的局面。主要节选内容请参阅本报告的第 4-10 页。,主题 1：不确定性推动企业制定保守的规划由于美国复苏形势和持续时间存在不确定性、且“财政悬崖”即将到来，企业管理层减少了增长投资并提出了更保守的目标。消费类企业强调，若形势恶化，消费者的信心可能进一步回落。主题 2：全球增长前景严峻企业预计 2012 年低于趋势水平的国内经济增速将在 2013 年持续、欧元区将陷入衰退、中国经济增速在政策支持不明朗的背景下将进一步放缓。房地产市场的走强是一个明显例外。企
3、业仍重点关注于新兴市场的结构性承诺。主题 3：企业利润率处于历史峰值附近企业竭尽全力保持高利润率，以抵御收入增速放缓、消费者价格敏感性较高、劳动力和原材料成本上涨以及政府支出放缓等多项挑战。三季度标普 500 指数成份股的收入较去年同期仅增长了 1%。20%的企业将政府需求列为最重要的挑战30Percent of National Federation of Independent Businesseslisting government requirements as the most important challenge20,高思庭(212)902-6781 Stuart Kaiser,
4、CFA(212)357-6308 高盛集团Amanda Sneider,CFA(212)357-9860 高盛集团Ben Snider(212)357-1744 高盛集团Peter Lewis(212)902-9693 高盛集团Rima Reddy(801)884-4794 高盛集团,151050资料来源：NFIB、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分
5、析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。,高盛集团,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,11,56,V,T,D,2,2012 年 11 月 8 日Table of ContentsKey takeaways from S&P 500 third-quarter 2012 conference callsConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrialsInformation TechnologyMaterialsTelecom ServicesUtilitiesDisclosure A
6、ppendixCompanies mentioned in this report listed alphabetically,by sectorCompanies appear in order listed,202834424861687073,美国,Consumer Discretionary,Energy,Health Care,Information Technology,Bed Bath&BeyondCoach Inc.Darden RestaurantsFamily Dollar StoresGannett Inc.Genuine PartsMarriott IntlMcDona
7、lds Corp.Nike Inc.,BBBYCOHDRIFDOGCIGPCMARMCDNKE,Anadarko PetroleumBaker HughesConocoPhillipsDiamond Offshore DrillingExxon Mobil Corp.Noble Corp.Occidental PetroleumPeabody EnergySchlumberger Ltd.,APCBHICOPDOXOMNEOXYBTUSLB,Abbott LaboratoriesAetna Inc.Baxter IntlCigna Corp.Johnson&JohnsonMerck&Co In
8、cPfizer Inc.Thermo Fisher ScientificUnitedHealth Group,ABTAETBAXCIJNJMRKPFETMOUNH,Apple Inc.eBay Inc.EMC Corp.Google Inc.Intel Corp.International Bus.MachinesMicrosoft Corp.Oracle Corp.Visa Inc.,AAPLEBAYEMCGOOGINTCIBMMSFTORCL,Omnicom Group,OMC,Whirlpool Corp.,WHR,Financials,Industrials,Materials,Yum
9、!Brands,YUM,American ExpressBank of America,AXPBAC,3M Co.Boeing Co.,MMMBA,Air Products&ChemicalsAlcoa Inc.,APDAA,Consumer Staples,BlackRock Inc.,BLK,Caterpillar,CAT,Dow Chemical,DOW,Coca-Cola Co.Colgate-PalmoliveConAgra FoodsConstellation BrandsCostco WholesaleGeneral MillsKimberly-Clark,KOCLCAGSTZC
10、OSTGISKMB,Citigroup Inc.Host Hotels&ResortsJPMorgan ChaseMorgan StanleyTravelers Cos.U.S.BancorpWells Fargo&Co.,CHSTJPMMSTRVUSBWFC,CSX Corp.Danaher Corp.FedEx Corp.General ElectricHoneywell IntlIngersoll-RandRobert Half Intl,CSXDHRFDXGEHONIRRHI,E.I.DuPontFreeport-McMoRan Cp&GldMeadWestvaco Corp.Mons
11、anto Co.Mosaic Co.Nucor Corp.Owens-Illinois,DDFCXMWVMONMOSNUEOI,McCormick&Co.,MKC,Southwest Airlines,LUV,Philip Morris IntlProcter&GambleSafeway Inc.,PMPGSWY,Union Pacific Corp.,UNP,Telecommunication ServicesAT&T Inc.Verizon CommunicationsVZ,Walgreen Co.,WAG,UtilitiesDominion ResourcesSource:Goldman
12、 Sachs Global ECS Research.*Denotes membership on the Americas Conviction List高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2012 年 11 月 8 日,美国,Key takeaways from S&P 500 third-quarter 2012 conference callsThe Summary of Commentary on Economic Conditions,commonly known as the“Beige Book,”is published by the Federal Reserve eight
13、 times per year.In it,the 12regional Reserve branches offer anecdotal evidence on the current economic environment in theirrespective regions based on interviews with key business contacts,economists,market experts,and other sources.In our quarterly Beige Book publication,we review the earnings tran
14、scripts ofcompanies in the S&P 500 to monitor the anecdotal evidence of fundamental andthematic trends.This quarters report contains excerpts from 86 companies that account for36%of total S&P 500 revenues and comprise 47%of the S&P 500 equity capitalization.Allmanagement comments on the following pa
15、ges were taken verbatim from company transcripts asrecorded by Call Street and accessed via FactSet.All company data are as of November 5,2012.We highlight three major themes from 3Q 2012 earnings commentary:Theme 1:Uncertainty drives conservative planningManagements stressed hesitancy to invest in
16、light of both policy and growthuncertainty.A lack of clarity about the path and duration of the US recovery and the loomingFiscal Cliff led managements to curtail capital spending and offer more conservative guidance.Consumer facing firms highlighted the risk of a possible retrenchment in sentiment
17、if conditionsdeteriorate.While some managements focused on the proximate risks through year end,othersargued that uncertainty is likely to persist in 2013.Several contended that a reduction inuncertainty would benefit business activity.Selected examples:AA,BHI,C,COST,DO,DRI,EMC,GCI,GE,GPC,HON,JPM,MC
18、D,MWV,RHI,T,and VZ.Theme 2:Challenged global growth outlookMost firms expect 2012s sub-trend domestic growth will continue in 2013.Recessionary conditions in the euro area were recognized as was the long dated nature of reform,leading some firms to modify operations in the region or sharply reduce p
19、erformance expectations.In contrast,views on Chinese growth were more mixed.Some firms highlighted the benefits of anorderly slowdown in growth while others raised concerns about the lack of clarity in governmentpolicy.Managements reiterated their belief in the importance of high growth markets to o
20、verallgrowth strategies.Selected examples:ABT,BTU,CAT,DD,DOW,FCX,FDX,IBM,INTC,JNJ,KMB,KO,MAR,MKC,MMM,NKE,OI,OMC,OXY,SLB,TRV,UNP,and WHR.Theme 3:Companies buttress margins near peak levelsMargins remain at historically high levels near 9%.Companies aggressively defend marginsagainst a variety of chal
21、lenges including:slow revenue growth,price conscious consumers,higher labor and input costs,and slower government spending.S&P 500 3Q 2012 revenuesincreased just 1%vs.3Q 2011 and we forecast government spending will be a 150 bp drag onUS GDP growth in 2013.Selected examples:ABT,BBBY,BTU,CAG,CL,COH,D
22、RI,FDO,FDX,GIS,HST,INTC,IR,JPM,LUV,MAR,MCD,MRK,ORCL,TRV,UNP,and WHR.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,2012 年 11 月 8 日,美国,Theme 1:Uncertainty drives conservative planningUncertainty about the path and duration of the US recovery and the looming FiscalCliff led managements to curtail growth investments and offer more
23、conservativeguidance.Consumer-facing firms highlighted the risk of a further retrenchment in sentiment ifconditions deteriorate.,Honeywell Intl(HON)Darden Restaurants(DRI)General Electric(GE)EMC Corp.(EMC)MeadWestvaco Corp.(MWV)Genuine Parts(GPC)Verizon Communications(VZ)Gannett Inc.(GCI),Honeywell
24、Intl(HON)cites the defensive posture of its customers and its own planningTurning to 2013,the clarity on the macro side is still murky.Theres nothing out there to suggestanything but continued conservative planning at bestI do believe theres the potential in the U.S.and maybe even in the world for a
25、 good economicrecovery if government would resolve the fiscal cliff and the debt.By the same token,theres apotential disaster if they handle it poorly Were going to look at it as if its just more of the same,and you cant count on these guysDarden Restaurants(DRI)plans with downside risk in mind for
26、2013On the consumer side,as we talked about FY2013 back in June.I think what we said was wethought it would look a lot from a macroeconomic environment like our FY2012.And to the extentthat there was as you looked at the balance of risk,2013 vs.2012,it was probably to the downside.And so thats how w
27、e established our plans.Nothing has really changed from thatperspective.General Electric(GE)emphasizes that pervasive uncertainty is hampering spendingIts the uncertainty.Its people not willing to spend until they have a more certain environmentaround whether its taxes or healthcare or social costs
28、or things like that,and just the generalbackdrop in terms of confidence.EMC Corp.(EMC)sees hesitation by customers to invest in future growthThe environment in Q3 turned out to be more cautious than we had expected.There were severalissues weighing on customers minds including uncertain global econo
29、mic growth and the U.S.Presidential election.The macro challenges translated into more spending scrutiny,longer dealcycles,additional approval requirements and the resulting delay in IT deals.MeadWestvaco Corp.(MWV)observes tightly managed supply chainsIn terms of our outlook,there are no near-term
30、catalysts for growth We expect to see continueduneven demand and order trends,as our customers tightly manage their supply chains throughthe end of the year.Genuine Parts(GPC)sees customers desiring greater clarity before spendingSo there are people out there that are sitting,waiting to make some Ca
31、pEx decisions dependentupon how things develop over the next quarter or so thats what were hearing from ourcustomer set.Verizon Communications(VZ)notes reluctance to invest in communication infrastructureDomestically,we are seeing new contracts and investment decisions being delayed as EnterpriseCIO
32、s continue to be cautious with regard to uncertainties involving the election outcome,thepending fiscal cliff,potential tax reform and other policy changes that may take place.Collectively,these uncertainties have created a wait-and-see approachGannett Inc.(GCI)stresses the risk to consumer spending
33、 from heightened uncertainty,And let me begin by saying that its early in Q4 and in a quarter where holiday spending is goingto be extremely important.And,as we all know,when we look out there,theres uncertaintyaround the economy and,certainly,uncertainty around where the election is going to take u
34、s withthe debt cliff高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2012 年 11 月 8 日Baker Hughes(BHI)Robert Half Intl(RHI)AT&T Inc.(T)McDonalds Corp.(MCD)JPMorgan Chase(JPM)Citigroup Inc.(C)Alcoa Inc.(AA)Diamond OffshoreDrilling(DO)Costco Wholesale(COST),美国Baker Hughes(BHI)notes the commodities outlook is impeding investmentSome o
35、f our customers are postponing activity,especially midcap North America operators,for anumber of reasons,including budgetary issues,over-leveraged balance sheets and uncertaintyover future commodity prices.Robert Half Intl(RHI)highlights the increasing use of flexible labor by clientsIn our staffing
36、 operations,our U.S.offices are seeing rising demand for professional staffing andconsulting services Demand for flexible staffing solutions also has remained strong.AT its never good for themarkets.And at some point,its not about what happens to the cliff,it is leading up to the cliff thatcan have
37、an impact as well.Alcoa Inc.(AA)stresses uncertainty is not limited to the USBut when we took a little bit of a deeper look,we saw that particularly the smaller and the mediumsized operators are concerned.The message is fiscal cliff,Euro news,China,all of thatinfluences their sentiment.And I guess t
38、hat makes them push their orders out in anticipation ofpotentially worry about the future.Diamond Offshore Drilling(DO)likewise highlights sources of risk outside the USWe are looking for a solution to the Brazilian problem,so the continuing escalation of cost and theuncertain regulatory environment
39、 and conflicting regulations,taxes,import taxes.Costco Wholesale(COST)deems the uncertain costs of healthcare reform manageableSo we dont think its going have a big impact to us like it may to others But its fair to say from,our perspective,its kind of been built into our numbers and weve been able
40、to handle it.Theme 2:Challenged global growthThe global growth environment remains challenged.Firms expect a continuation of 2012sbelow trend domestic growth in 2013,recessionary conditions in the euro area,and more modestChinese growth with unclear policy support.Housing strength represents a notab
41、le exception.Companies still emphasized the structural promise of emerging markets.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,2012 年 11 月 8 日E.I.DuPont(DD)Caterpillar(CAT)Marriott Intl(MAR)Union Pacific Corp.(UNP)Travelers Cos.(TRV)Whirlpool Corp.(WHR)Johnson&Johnson(JNJ)Intel Corp.(INTC)Dow Chemical(DOW)Omnicom Group(OMC),美
42、国E.I.DuPont(DD)has a tepid outlook for 2013So if you talk to our economists,they are projecting it to be,GDP to be a little lower in 2013 thanit is this year.Western Europe,zero.Asia growth,everybody pegs it comparable to 2012,but Ithink its very different depending on sector.Caterpillar(CAT)sees li
43、ttle change in the year aheadYou can boil down what were thinking about 2013 to steady as she goes,not much changefrom 2012.On the positive side,in many countries around the world,monetary and credit policies haveeased over the past year,and we do expect that to continue into 2013.However,economicgr
44、owth has been slow to respond,and were not expecting any improvement in world economicgrowth until maybe H2 2013.Marriott Intl(MAR)has downgraded its growth viewsWere a bit more cautious about the rest of the world than we were in the summer Were nowsort of thinking 2%-ish GDP growth for next year t
45、hats implicit in this model.I dont remember offthe top of my head but I suspect we were more than 2.5%.Union Pacific Corp.(UNP)stresses that slow growth is better than no growthSo were in all likelihood going to have a record performance again this year.That says that atthis point in time that consu
46、mers arent really pulling their horns in and that the overall economicactivity is slow growth,which is what we expected going into the year.Travelers Cos.(TRV)sees macro weakness in micro dataWere measuring payroll,were measuring projected sales,were measuring trucks on the road,were measuring real
47、estate square feet.And our data suggests sluggish is what youd seeWhirlpool Corp.(WHR)believes housing may portend of better things to comeWe continue to see some early but consistent signs of housing recovery which makes usincreasingly optimistic about a more structural demand recovery.Johnson&John
48、son(JNJ)sees a less hesitant consumer by way of medical expendituresTurning to market conditions,in the U.S.,healthcare utilization rates,primarily hospitaladmissions and surgeries,show early signs of stabilization,and U.S.joint reconstruction volumesappear to have improved in the latest data that w
49、e have.While some positive signs can be seen,these signs are still too early to signal any meaningful recovery.Intel Corp.(INTC)positions itself for continued weakness in end marketsWe significantly cut factory loadings at the end of the quarter and will maintain low factoryutilization rates through
50、out the fourth quarter.We expect these factory adjustments to help bringdown our total inventory levels by approximately$0.5 billion.Dow Chemical(DOW)notes the improving relative position of US exportersAnd I would just add that the U.S.low-cost position cant be understated,or overstated,I guess,eno
