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1、Executive 3G Training Workshop,Scanning the MVNO Opportunity,Business Model versus Reality,Riadh MarrakchiBonn,9/7/2006,Member of,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,2.,3.,5.,6.,Content,1.4.,IntroductionMVNO DefinitionBusiness ModelMarket RealityDifferentiation PoolsRecommendationsPage 1,SCANNINGTHEMVNOO
2、PPORTUNITY.PPT,1,2,3,4,Introduction,Key Questions to be Answered,Objective of the presentation is to provide suitable answers to predefined key questions.,Key Questions,What is an MVNO?,Which boundaries shall be considered within the mobile Telco value chain?,What is the essence of the business mode
3、l?,How do you to target a market and design a competitive strategy?,What is the reality on the MVNO global market?,What are the lessons learned from respective success stories and pitfalls?,What are the recommendations for different players?,What are the leads for business growth and service differe
4、ntiation?,Page 2,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,2.,Content,MVNO Defintion,Page 3,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,MVNO Definition,The Gray Zone,An MVNO does not own a mobile spectrum license but sells mobile services under its ownbrand name,network code and SIM cards using a licensed mobile radio netw
5、ork.,Clarification,However,this broad definition is not always applicable to all MVNO business models deployed in diversecountries with different regulatory systems.,The first approach focuses on players which simply repackage network operators services and issuetheir own SIM cards by relying almost
6、 on the hosts facilities with a little product differentiation.,While the second approach consists of providers which have and operate their own core networkinfrastructure including switching,home location register,billing,customer care,value added servicesplatforms and intelligent network systems.,
7、In essence,most MVNOs fall somewhere between this Gray zone according to their technologicalimplementation choices,market strategies and the respective regulatory framework.,Page 4,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Partner,MVNO DefinitionMVNO WorthWith regards into the mobile Telco value chain,the MVNO
8、 worth is swiftly clear.Illustration,Sales*)for the MNOs account*)SalesBranding AdvertisementEnd User ContractCustomer CareBilling PlatformEnd user devicesSIM CardService Delivery PlatformsCore Network(MSC,HLR,GGSN,IN)Numbering Range(IMSI,MSISDN)Radio Network,Reseller&BillingSystem,ClassicServicePro
9、vider,EnhancedServiceProvider,NetworkServiceProvider,MVNO,MobileNetworkOperator,Page 5,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,3.,Content,Business Model,Page 6,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,1,2,3,4,Business ModelTargeting a MarketIt is more important to do what is strategically right than what is immediatel
10、y profitable.Modus Operandi,Regulatory Openness,Market Size,Local MVNO Definition Transparent Framework Decision-making Process,Influence of politicaland lobbying forces,Lead for marketentry strategy,Market Share Segmentation Competition Level,Market,Mobile Penetration Cost Equity per Subscriber Dem
11、and Forecast Churn RatePage 7,Indicator to futuregrowth potential,Driver or Inhibitorfor aspiring MVNO,GDP Per Capita Expected ARPU Planned MoU Pricing Strategy,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Business ModelCornerstonesSignificant grounding points for the compilation of a MVNO business model are theW
12、holesale strategy,the ARPU level and the MVNE perspective.,Wholesale Stratagem Balance between the rateoffered and the pricing forend-users(40-50%Margin)Nationwide network coverageof the mobile carrier partner Technological compatibilitywith the planned serviceoffering Suitable SLA in terms ofdurati
13、on,reliability andreaction patternsPage 8,ARPU Level With respect to subscriberforecast scenario Simulation of expected ChurnRate and Minutes of Use Statement on current ARPUas well as identified customersegments Awareness to existing tariffspackages and service offeringportfolio,MVNE Perspective Op
14、portunity for non-carriers,established service providers Strengths of an outsourcingdeal in terms of infrastructuremanagement,time to market,risk assessment,etc.Sound check of the MVNEbusiness uncertainty on thelong term prospect Best scenario with a MobileNetwork Operator playingalso the MVNE role,
15、SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Business ModelCompetitive StrategiesFunding requirements,service offering and customer segmentation are not just garden-variety“rudiments,but decisive dynamics determining the MVNO competitive strategy.Competitive Strategies,Market LeaderMarket ChallengerMarket Followe
16、rMarket NicherPage 9,“Value-added MVNOs”with largest marketshare and offering innovative data andapplications packages“Budget MVNOs”attack leaders for futuremarket share,prepaid services focus,nohandsets“Convenience MVNOs”claiming productimitation advantages as product innovationstrategy,rely on exi
17、sting customer baseand brand“Affinity MVNOs”with portfolio appealingindividual lifestyles,usage patterns orspecial interests,Virgin Mobile in UK Tele 2 in Sweden Sense Communications in Norway Telemore in Denmark Simyo in Germany Revolution Telecom in Australia 7-eleven in USA Jeans in Ukraine M6 in
18、 France Trident Telecom in Hong Kong RCSC Mobile in Belgium VOX mobile in Luxemburg,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Business ModelEstablishment ProcedureThe modus operandi for a suitable MVNO establishment consists of three basic stepssuch as targeting a market,mastering cornerstones and designing th
19、e strategy.MVNO Establishment Procedure,Targeting a MarketGDP Per CAPITA Minutes of Use Demand ForecastMobile Penetration Potential Cost Equity Per Subscriber Cost Equity per PopulationMarket Size Competition Level Market Share Innovation GradeRegulator Openness MVNO Definition Legal Transparency De
20、cision-Making Process1.AssessmentPage 10,Mastering CornerstonesWholesale Rate Nationwide Network Reach End-user pricing Technological Compatibility Service Level AgreementARPU Level Subscriber Forecast Revenues EBIDTAMVNE Perspective Cost cutting via Outsourcing Competence Consolidation Economy of S
21、cale Rapid Time to Market2.Feasibility,Designing the StrategyScenarios Market Leader Market Follower Market Challenger Market NicherTools Customer Segmentation Service Portfolio Device Offering Brand Approach3.Consolidation,ProductQuality,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Medium,Business ModelPricing S
22、trategy1 percent increase in price boosts profits two to three times much as a 1 percent increasein sales volume.,Nine Price Quality StrategiesPrice,Reasoning,High,Medium,Low,Diagonal strategies 1,5,9 can allcoexist in the same market as,long as related three group ofbuyers are present.,High,1.Premi
23、umStrategy,2.High-value 3.Super valuestrategy strategy,Strategies 2,3 and 6 are the way,to attack the diagonal positions byconvincing quality sensitive,4.Overcharging 5.Medium-6.Good Valuestrategy value strategy strategy,customers to buy from them andsave moneyPositioning strategies 4,7 and 8,Low,7.
24、Rip-offstrategy,8.Falseeconomystrategy,9.Economystrategy,amount to overpricing the productin relation to its quality with therisk to spread bad word of mouthabout the company,Page 11,Freecashflow,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Business ModelRisk/Sensitivity AnalysisThe risk sensitivity analysis is a
25、 decisive exercise by designing the MVNO business case.,Illustrative,Rationale The scenario analysis focuses on,Scenario analysisScenario determination and impact:,Sensitivity analysisSelection of value influencing,market potentials of best,base andworst cases.,Best casedefinitione.g.risingsales,Bas
26、e casedefinitione.g.stablesalesBest caseBase case,Worst casedefinitione.g.fallingsales,parameters:DiscountrateSalesgrowth,CapitalstructureEquityvalueInvestmentcosts,ExchangeratechangesWorkingcapitalchange,The sensitivity analysisof the base case includes keyvariables and clarifies thesignificance on
27、 equity value.The sensitivity analysis shows theimpact of identified risks on thekey financial indicators and ratios.It also provides transparencybetween the risk level and,Worst caseProbabilityEquity value bandPage 12,Impact quantification:Quantifying the impact of selectedparameters on equity valu
28、e,profitability,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Content,4.,Market RealityPage 13,Awareness,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Market RealityMVNO Hype CycleAfter the uninformed optimisms and consumed pessimism,we are moving to the realisticoptimisms.MVNO Hype Cycle,Regulatory issues clarification First MV
29、NO players in Europe Innovative market strategiesEarly adopters:Virgin Mobile UK1999,RSL ComFinland 1999,etc.Kick-Off PhaseTimePage 14,Pan-continental MVNOs No frills brand MVNOs“Wait and see”strategiesMarket followers:Virgin Mobile USA2002,Happy ManyBelgium 2004,etc.TodayTransition Phase,Global dep
30、loyment of MVNOs Market saturationConsolidation strategiesNiche players:Affinity groups,Media brands,City carriers,Retailers,etc.Saturation Phase,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Market RealityMVNO Landscape Attractive MarketsMVNO“Sweet Spots”aka attractive markets include for instance USA,Japan,Norwa
31、y,Switzerland,and Canada.Attractive MarketsGermany Large population with,Canada Mid 2004 almost 43%of Canadians had accessto mobile services Capex continues todecrease from big pendingyear 2000 and 2001 down,high GDP per Capita Transparent regulatorysystem with opportunitiesfor niche playersJapan Ea
32、rly-adopter customers,USA Verizon wireless as largestmobile carrier has only23%market share Semi-rural and urban areaswith digital coverageremain green fieldsSource:DETECON Research and AnalysisPage 15,Switzerland European commissionpressure on regulatorto boost the scope ofTelco competitive service
33、s One of the highest GDPper Capita in Europe,for innovative services Transparent regulatoryframework,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Market RealityMVNO Landscape Promising MarketsPromising markets,in terms of future MVNOs deployment,include for instance China,France,United Arab Emirates,India and Sou
34、th Africa.Promising Markets,United Arab Emirates Major star performer inMiddle East,10%growthin 2005 Early adopter market withvery high ARPUFrance Fourth largest mobilemarket in Europe andfine regulatory openness,China 269 Mio subscribers in2004,i.e.only 20%ofthe population GDP is continuouslygrowin
35、g since 2000India 35 Mio new subscribersforecasted for 2005,69%mobile penetrationversus 86%westernEuropean average,South Africa Fastest Compound AnnualGrowth Rates for theperiod 1998-2003,30%mobile users arelooking for better operators Average per minute chargedeclined by 58%in 2004,Green fields for
36、 MVNOplayersSource:DETECON Research and AnalysisPage 16,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Market RealityLessons Learned Success StoriesGlobal and pan continental players are performing well and continue to expand.Selected CasesVirgin Mobile UK:equity investments with established,Joint venture between V
37、irgin Groupand network partner One 2 One,MVNO,brands with high growth consumer segments can bearout extremely powerful.Tele2:experienced carrier can leverage on its internal,Fixed carrier which launchedTele2mobile as alternative brandFocus on Value Added Servicesfor business travelers in Hong KongPa
38、ge 17,SuccessStories,telecom skills,market footprint and image to realizebusiness development.Trident Telecom:“Niche MVNO”in early-adoptercustomer-based markets could achieve businessdevelopment by offering bundled services.,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Market RealityLessons Learned PitfallsTechno
39、logical advances are pushing for a double edged sword with which businessopportunities are created and destroyed.Selected CasesSense in Norwayworlds first MVNO launched late 1998and flop in early 1999,-Unfamiliarity of the concept andfinancial difficulties-MNO resistances to negotiateaccess to their
40、 network,MVNO,Sense in Norway:In short,market maturity,partnerscooperation and funding strengths are vital for thesuccessful outcome.,Imagine in Irelandlaunched in April 2000 and closedoperations one year later-wrong Volume Discount Agreement-legal uncertainty over its right tooperatePage 18,Pitfall
41、s,Imagine in Ireland:smart selection of the host network,suitable choice of the target market and prompt check ofthe regulatory support are vital for a successful MVNOestablishment.,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,5.,Content,Differentiation Pools,Page 19,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Differentiation
42、 PoolsCustomer CentricityFixed Mobile Convergence and Quadruple Play are offerings which embrace and fosterthe customer centricity trend.Customer Centricity,Convenience,Cost Savings,Performance,Security,one stop shop,discounts,speed and quality,data security,one contractone deviceone numberone bill/
43、tariffone customer careservice,value for money shared fixed-mobileminutes free home zone,of service control oncommunication mobility/ubiquitousaccess Seamless applications,service securitypredictability of bill,High mobility,Metro-Zone Neighborhood-Zone,Home/Office-ZonePage 20,High,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOP
44、PORTUNITY.PPT,Low,1,2,3,4,Differentiation PoolsMarket Offering PositioningDont watch the product life cycle:Watch the market life cycle.Illustrative Use Case,Efficiency,1ChannelAccessibilityOrdering easeDelivery3Customer educationCustomer feedbackCustomer service,2Value perceptionPackagingImageAdver
45、tising4Quality of serviceFeaturesReliabilityWarranty,PoolSalesDistributionCustomer careProduct,Impact4453,RationaleCommunicationand competenceReadiness andcoverageCompetitiveadvantageValue proposition,HighPage 21,Importance,Low,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Differentiation PoolsEnd-User DevicesInte
46、grated Mobile Device Management and Peer to Peer applications will revolutionizethe perception of end-user devices and therefore the mobile communication industry.,Wireless Subscribers Growth 2005-2011(Millions)3.5003.156,Mobile Computing Devices Growth 2003-2008(Millions)1.800,3.000,2.764,2.968,1.6
47、00,305,320,340,2.5002.000,1.851,2.085,2.320,2.547,1.4001.2001.000,205195,220210,240225,245,260,265,1.500,800,420,440,455,470,475,480,1.000,600,500,400200,500,560,595,630,655,680,0,0,2005,2006,2007,2006,2007,2009,2011,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,Asia/Pacific,Europe,North America,Rest of World,Page
48、22,Source:Insight Research 2006,Source:Insight Research 2006,SCANNINGTHEMVNOOPPORTUNITY.PPT,Differentiation PoolsMobile Broadband TechnologiesFuture wireless broadband technology develops along two directions:one evolutionarypath from W-CDMA to HSDPA and one revolutionary path comprising WiFi and Wi
49、MAX.,Mobile Broadband Technologies Grid,Reasoning,WiFi,WiMAX,To assess future wirelessbroadband technologies not only,RoamingSecurity,Price per Bit43210,CoverageMobility,RoamingSecurity,Price per Bit43210,CoverageMobility,data rates are important.Depending on the intendedapplication,factors such asc
50、overage,mobility,security,qualityof service and roaming have to be,considered.,Data Rate,Quality of Service,Data Rate,Quality of Service,One major aspect,which should,W-CDMARoaming,Price per Bit432,Coverage,HSDPARoaming,Price per Bit432,Coverage,not be neglected is the regulatorysituation and the sp
