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1、EquityResearchReport/A-shareStrategy/RegularReport,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Jan 2013Give top priority to the financial bluechips and cyclical blue chips8 January 2013,Investment HighlightsMarket review:strong rallies.Shanghai Composite slipped to athree-year low at 1949 points at the beginnin
2、g of Dec 2012,and thenpicked up strong rallies.As of 28 Dec,the CSI 300/Shanghai Compo-site/Shenzhen Component/the SME board/the ChiNext board added16%/13%/14%/14%/17%,respectively over the past month;andexcept the US stock index which ended the month with a slight drop,allthe other overseas equity
3、indices advanced.In the commodity market,most of the commodity prices plunged and fewer prices rose.The USdollar index retreated,with Japanese Yen depreciating significantlyrelative to the US dollar and RMB remaining relatively stable.Domestic:earnings improvement helps reduce the valuation pressure
4、.Play focus on the persistence of economic recovery and warming poli-cies in the new year.While the moderate recovery trend of economy isunlikely to change,we foresee a slim probability that the economicdata make any forecast-beating improvement in the next few months.Meanwhile,further improvement o
5、f the market expectations reliesheavily upon the policy fundamentals,especially the incremental poli-cies represented by investment plans.We upgrade the 4Q12E earn-ings growth rate forecast for non-financial listed companies,from-7.4%to 1.6%;and predict that the re-rating of late will be partly di-g
6、ested by earnings improvement.In respect of the reform policies,wesuggest keeping a close watch on 1)overall plan of the income distri-bution reform,and 2)framework of the urbanization-related reforms.Overseas:focus on the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling issues of the US.QE4 released by the US Federal
7、 Reserve and continued loosing poli-cies adopted by the Japanese central bank in Dec 2012 didnt imposeany material impact on the capital market and real economy.In our,CITIC Securities ResearchChangqing MaoTel:010-60838226Email:Practicing certificate no.:S1010510120004Haobo LiuTel:0755-23835395Email
8、:Practicing certificate no.:S1010510120038Peijing QinTel:021-68768323Email:Practicing certificate no.:S1010512050004Qun ZhangTel:010-60838299Email:Practicing certificate no.:S1010511090003Xin YangTel:010-60836755Email:Practicing certificate no.:S1010512060002Contact:Fang LiuTel:010-60836736Email:,vi
9、ew,focus of investors attentions will still lie in the fiscal cliff and debtceiling issues of the US during the upcoming month.We forecast par-ties concerned will reach a small-scale temporary agreement in thenear term to avoid sparking expectations of systemic risk exposure.Inour view,the fiscal cl
10、iff and debt ceiling issues are unlikely to arouseany systemic risks but they will disturb the capital market in the nearterm.We reiterate the forecast that the European debt crisis haspeaked off albeit continuing aftershocks.Investors concerns about theGreek debt problem have eased.Recommend to mon
11、itor the potentialrisks in Spain and Italy.Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Jan 2013,Liquidity in the stock market tightened relative to the beginning of Dec 2012 but remained looseoverall.Tightening macro liquidity and growing capital demand underm
12、ined liquidity in the stock market,leading to a slightly tighter liquidity in the stock market relative to the previous months.With the economicrecovery trend and the securities market reform policies gradually unfolding,risk appetite is expected tocontinue rising.On one hand,it means slower crowdin
13、g-off effect from the bond products,bank depositsand trust products on liquidity of the stock market,while expectations of positive policies(such as inflowof the pension fund and engagement of bond asset management companies in mutual fund business)will underpin the liquidity supply;and on the other
14、 hand,given the basic tone of securities market reform,the stockpile of IPO applications will be eased.Overall the stock market will likely remain under liquidityoversupply.,Sector comparison:earnings expectations for financial and early-cyclical sectors will turn around.Factoring in the macro funda
15、mentals,the policy fundamentals,price ratio of individual sectors and valu-ation difference,we believe the A-share market has basically met the essential conditions for a style shiftor sectoral rotation.But financial and cyclical blue chips will remain focus of the market style,and stockswith relati
16、vely smaller gains will likely see structural opportunities.Given increase of the valuation pre-mium of cyclical/consumer stocks,sectors with earnings support will be better positioned.We forecastearnings expectation of the banks and non-bank financials,the home appliance,auto,machinery sectorson th
17、e midstream,and the electronics and power generation sectors will trend upward.Of the sectoralevents,we recommend keeping an eye on the defense theme arising from instable regional situation andgeopolitical events in East Asia,as well as the handsome distribution theme arising from the approachingan
18、nual results disclosures.,Investment tips:give top priority to the financial blue chips and cyclical blue chips.In the near term,impact of the overseas fiscal cliff issue and the domestic liquidity pressure is not a dominant factor in theA-share market.Instead,the recent rallies were mainly driven b
19、y:(1)restoration of medium to long-termconfidence by new policies,which is still strengthening;(2)the return of macroeconomic recovery to theupward trajectory;(3)investment-oriented urbanization policies,which are expected to be further,strengthened around the regional“NPC and CPPCC meetings”in late
20、 Jan 2013E.Given that the threemajor factors wont be fundamentally changed,we predict a large probability that the broad market will,continue heading upwards amid volatilities.Focus of the market attentions will remain on the ear-ly-cyclical sectors.Meanwhile,we suggest keeping an eye on sectoral ro
21、tation.Financial blue chips andcyclical blue chips are still our best picks.Among the individual sectors,we recommend allocating to fi-nancial,real estate,construction engineering,construction materials and equipment(auto/constructionmachines)manufacturing,with keeping an eye on trading opportunitie
22、s due to expected diffusion of up-beat business climate to the midstream sectors and positive influence of holiday factors on restaurants,tourism and retail sectors.For thematic investment,place a focus on defense and handsome annualprofit distribution themes.,Please read the disclaimer at the end o
23、f the report,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Jan 2013,Contents,Market review:Strong rallies.1,Recovery of listed companies profitability justified the rise of their valuations;,the sustainability of economic recovery and policies issued in 2012 is worthattention.2,Pay attention to the sustainability
24、 of economic recovery and policies introduced in2012.2,Non-financial companies earnings may beat consensus and partially justify the,earlier rise in valuations.5,Overseas market:The focus is on the US fiscal cliff and debt ceiling.7,Stock market liquidity will remain loose,but will be slightly tight
25、er than it wasin Dec 2012.9,Sector comparison:earnings expectations for financial and early-cyclicalsectors will turn around.16,Market style:financial and cyclical sectors led the gains.16Sectoral climate:earnings growth for industrial enterprises continued to improve.21Sector valuation:seeking valu
26、ation re-rating supported by earnings.21Sectoral events:keep an eye on the defense theme and the profit distribution theme.24,Investment tips:give top priority to the financial blue chips and cyclical bluechips.28,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Ja
27、n 2013FiguresFig.1.Movement of Shanghai Composite Index in December.1Fig.2.Monthly gains of major indices in A-share market.1Fig.3.Monthly change of yields on government bonds and policy banks bonds.1Fig.4.Monthly gains/losses of major stock indices in the world.1Fig.5.Monthly gains/losses of major
28、commodities.2Fig.6.Monthly appreciation/depreciation of major currencies against the USD.2Fig.7.Number of FAI projects approved by the NDRC in 2012.4,Fig.8.MoM FAI growth after seasonal adjustment,.4,Fig.9.Monthly growth of Industrial value-added and market consensus forecast.5Fig.10.Chinas manufact
29、uring PMI.5Fig.11.Industrial enterprises key financial indicators.6Fig.12.Industrial enterprises monthly profit and YoY profit growth.6Fig.13.Quarterly YoY revenue growth.6Fig.14.Actual and forecast total net income growth of all A-share companies.6Fig.15.Volatility of major U.S.stock indices.8Fig.1
30、6.US business climate indices.8,Fig.17.Yield on 10-year Greek government bond,.9,Fig.18.Yields on 10-year Italian and Spanish government bonds,.9,Fig.19.No central bank bills will mature in Jan 2013.10Fig.20.More loans were issued at year-beginnings.10Fig.21.Pattern of net outflow of hot money will
31、remain in the short term.10,Fig.22.Trade surplus tends to fall in 1Q,.10,Fig.23.Risk-free rate may remain stable.11Fig.24.Interest rates may spike.11,Fig.25.Net fund supply in the stock market has been improving,.11,Fig.26.Funds positions in stocks has started to rise since Nov 2012.11Fig.27.Funds h
32、ave been flowing from banks to stock market since Nov 2012.12Fig.28.Net inflow of foreign funds are rising.12Fig.29.Growth of funds raised by WM products are negatively correlated with liquidity.12Fig.30.Returns on WM products are negatively correlated with liquidity.12Fig.32.Yields on government bo
33、nds are rising.13Fig.32.Risk appetite is increasing.13Fig.33:Expected return on trust products trends downward.14Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Jan 2013,Fig.34:Data of collective trusts newly-established in November.14,Fig.35:Expected return on co
34、llective trusts in November.14,Fig.36:The amount of divestment has increased as the market recovers.15,Fig.37:The amount of refinancing has increased as the market recovers.15,Fig.38:The ChiNext board will suffer from great pressures from the lift of ban in Jan 2013E15,Fig.39:Distribution of industr
35、ies that will see lift of trading ban on sales of restricted sharesin Jan 2013E.15,Fig.40:Monthly performance of CITIC Class I sector index.16,Fig.41:Monthly performance of CITIC composite sector indices.16,Fig.42:Monthly performance of style indices.17,Fig.43:Monthly performance of active concept s
36、ectors.17,Fig.44:Sector performance during the course of market rally from the bottom I.18,Fig.45:Sector performance during the course of market rally from the bottom II.18,Fig.46:Sector performance during the course of market rally from the bottom III.18,Fig.47:Sector performance during the course
37、of market rally from the bottom IV.18,Fig.48:The relationship between sector valuation(PETTM)gap and market trend.19,Fig.49:Forward PE of various sectors.20,Fig.50:Distribution of individual stock performance in Dec 2012.20,Fig.51:CSI 300 earnings expectation adjustments.22,Fig.52:Distribution of Cl
38、ass I sector earnings expectation adjustments.22,Fig.53:Valuation discount of cyclical/consumer stocks.22,Fig.54:Identify sectors with earnings support and lagging valuation re-rating.23,Fig.55:Sectors with the biggest reductions in holdings in the past month.23,Fig.56:The proportion of divestment d
39、ue to the lift of trading ban out of total reductions inholdings.23,Fig.57:Number of companies to be removed of trading ban in the next three months bysectors.24,Fig.58:Shares to be removed of trading ban in the next three months as a percentage oftotal free float capitalization.24,Fig.59:Abnormal r
40、eturn of stocks(bonus share ratio is 1)before and after theannouncement date of distribution plan.26,Fig.60:Abnormal return of stocks(bonus share ratio is between 0.5 and 1)before and afterthe announcement date of distribution plan.26,Fig.61:Top 5 sectors where individual stocks with a 0.5-plus bonu
41、s share ratio.26,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Jan 2013,Tables,Table 1:Historical data of and market consensus on major economic indicators.3,Table 2:Forecasts about listed companies earnings growth.7,Table 3:Macro fundamentals can still underpin
42、 the financial and cyclical sectors.20,Table 4:Profits,investment,exports and price changes of major industries.21,Table 5:Summary of public opinions regarding national defense security.25,Table 6:List of events for sector allocation(the bold part is updated this week).26,Table 7:Strategic events.29
43、,Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report,12/03,12/10,12/17,12/24,Nikkei225,DAX,BOVESPA,FTSE100,SENSEX,CAC40,MICEX,KOSPI,Dow,Jones,HSI,SSEC,上证综指 深成指,Index,Index,Gov-,Policy banks,3.32%,0,1,A-share Market Strategy Monthly-Jan 2013Market review:Strong ralliesThe A-share market bottomed out
44、in early December which was followed by strong rallies.By 28 Dec,CSI 300,Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index gained15.91%,12.78%and 14.22%,respectively,and the SME Index and ChiNext Index climbed13.94%and 16.63%respectively.During the period,the Shanghai Composite Index saw2%-plus
45、daily gains in three trading days,and it recorded the biggest rise of 4.32%on 14Dec.We explained the rationale for such strong rallies in our report,2013E Annual Invest-ment Strategy for A-share MarketBlue Chips Set to Perform as New Leadership TakesOver,which was published on 12 Dec.We believe that
46、 it was a)the new leadership,whichbolstered investors long-term confidence,b)economic recovery,and c)robust investmentdemand arising from the construction of“urbanization,industrialization,informatization andagricultural modernization”that triggered the recent rebound of the A-share market.How-ever,
47、in the bond market,yields on most government bonds and policy banks bonds rose inDecember,indicating tight liquidity.,Fig.1.Movement of Shanghai Composite In-dex in December(3-28 Dec 2012),Fig.2.Monthly gains of major indices inA-share market(3-28 Dec 2012),2300225022002150,18%16%14%,15.91%,12.78%,1
48、4.22%,13.94%,16.63%,2100205020001950,12%10%8%6%,19001850,MM/DD,4%,1800,2%0%,CSI 300 Shanghai Shenzhen SME沪深300 Composite Component 中小板,ChiNext创业板,Index,Index,Source:Wind,CITIC Securities ResearchFig.3.Monthly change of yields on governmentbonds and policy banks bonds,Source:Wind,CITIC Securities Res
49、earchFig.4.Monthly gains/losses of major stockindices in the world(3-28 Dec 2012),2015,国债ernmentbonds,政策性银行债 17.1bonds,14%12%10%,10.05%,12.78%,105,11.21.5,7.54.7,10.3,6.12.7,4.2,7.62.1,0.2,8%6%4%2%0%,2.79%1.77%1.00%,2.89%,6.15%5.37%0.54%,-2%-0.67%,-5,bp1Y,3Y,-3.05Y,7Y,10Y,15Y,-3.820Y,Source:Wind,CIT
50、IC Securities Research,Source:Wind,CITIC Securities Research,Most major overseas stock indices other than Dow Jones ended lower in Dec 2012,with theA-share market significantly outperforming other markets.The Nikkei 225 rose dramaticallyamid expectations for Bank of Japans loose monetary policy.Manw
