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1、TOP MOBILE INTERNET TRENDS,Matt Murphy/Mary Meeker 2/10/11,http:/,Copyright 2011.All rights reserved.Duplication or redistribution of this presentation are prohibited without prior written authorization.,1,1.,3.,4.,5.,6.,7.,8.,9.,Mobile Trends Rapid Growth+DisruptionMobile Platforms Hit Critical Mas
2、s,2.10.,Mobile is GlobalSocial Networking Accelerating Growth of MobileTime Shifting to Mobile UsageMobile Advertising Growing Pains But Huge PromisemCommerce Changing Shopping BehaviorEmergence of Virtual Goods&In-App CommerceNot All Platforms Are Created EqualChange Will Accelerate,New Players Eme
3、rging RapidlySummary Trends to Watch,2,MOBILE PLATFORMS HITCRITICAL MASS,GlobalUnitShipments(000),iPods Changed the Media IndustryiPhones Ramped EvenFasteriPad Growth Leaves its“Siblings”in the DustFirst 3 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments,iPod vs.iPhone vs.iPad16,000,14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,
4、0002,0000,iPad,iPhone,iPod,0,1,2,3,Quarters After LaunchSource:Apple.4,#ofDownloads(B),iTunes Changed the Media IndustryApp StoreGrowth Leaves it in the DustCumulative Number of Downloads,iTunes Music/Video/Movie vs.Apps,First 10 Quarters10,86420,Apps,iTunes,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,Quarters After Lau
5、nchSource:Apple.5,GlobalCumulativeUnitShipments(MM),Android has Hit Critical MassFirst 9 Quarters Cumulative Android Unit Shipments80Android Global Units Shipped706050403020100,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,Quarters After LaunchSource:Gartner.6,GlobalUnitShipments(MM),Smartphone+Tablet PC Shipments Since CQ4:
6、10Global Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs+Notebook PCs vs.Smartphones+Tablets,2005-2013E,700,000,CQ4:10:Inflection Point,Smartphones+Tablets Total PCs600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011E,2012E,2013E,Desktop PCs,Notebook PCs,Smartphones,Tablets,Note:Notebook PC
7、s include Netbooks.Source:Katy Huberty,Ehud Gelblum,Morgan Stanley Research.Data and Estimates as of 2/117,MOBILE IS GLOBAL,Source:1)Internet user stats 2)time spent data per comScore global 12/09.,5 Countries=46%of Internet Users China,USA,Russia,Brazil,India2009 1.8B Global Internet Users,+13%Y/Y(
8、1);18.8T Minutes Spent,+21%Y/Y(2)Russia60MM users;+31%Y/Y42%penetration*USA,240MM users,+4%Y/Y76%penetration*Brazil76MM users,+17%Y/Y39%penetration*,China384MM users;+29%Y/Y29%penetration*India61MM users;+18%Y/Y5%penetration*,Note:*Penetration is per 100 inhabitants.Source:1)Internet user stats per
9、International Telecommunications Union;per International Telecommunications Union;2)time spent data per comScore global 12/09.9,35%Y/Y Global Mobile 3G Subscriber Growthto 726MM,CQ3,CQ3:10,3G,3G Sub,CQ3:10,3G,3G Sub,3G Subs Penetra-,Y/Y,3G Subs Penetra-,Y/Y,Rank Country,(MM),tion,Growth,Rank,Country
10、,(MM),tion,Growth,123456789101112131415,USAJapanKoreaItalyUKGermanySpainPolandIndonesiaFranceChinaBrazilAustraliaCanadaRussia,14110940343128272321212019181212,47%95794041284850113321066505,27%1212213228213554304581772914767,161718192021222324252627282930,TaiwanMalaysiaSaudi ArabiaSwedenSouth AfricaT
11、urkeyNetherlandsPhilippinesPortugalAustriaIsraelVietnamSingaporeEgyptGreece,1198776666655444,42%2618571510327354652459726,40%23504336160279883018707483428,Global 3G Stats:,Subscribers=726MM,Penetration=14%,Growth=35%,Note:*Informa reports a lower global 3G subscription#vs.Ovum due to the exclusion o
12、f 4G and the use of different sources.3G includes CDMA 1x EV-DO andRev.A/B,WCDMA,HSPA;Source:Informa WCIS+.10,SOCIAL NETWORKING,ACCELERATING GROWTH OFMOBILE,Different Types of Platforms=Facebook+Apple+GoogleiPhone/iTouch/iPad,SOCIAL,662MM users+41%Y/Y550K+apps500MM+downloads,130MM+users+103%Y/Y350K+
13、apps10B+downloads,MOBILE,*972MM users,SEARCH,+8%Y/Y,CQ4:CPCs+4%Q/Qpaid clicks+18%Y/YSource:Company data,comScore global 12/10.*Google Android momentum especially strong too.12,Emerging Types of Social NetworksMore to Come,INFORMATIONSHARING,253MMunique visitors+85%Y/Y,130MM+monthly active users+15%Y
14、/Y,GAMING,51MMsubscribers+25x Y/Y,Source:Groupon,Twitter,Zynga.,COMMERCE,13,DailyActiveUsers(MM),Zynga Proves that Great New Social Productsfor Old Users Can Ramp Extremely QuicklyDaily Active Users,FarmVille vs.CityVille,First 60 Days Since Product Launch20,161284-,FarmVille,CityVille,1,6,11,16,21
15、26 31 36 41,46,51,56,Days After LaunchSource:Zynga.Note that FarmVille launched in 6/09,CityVille launched in 12/10.14,Real-Time Social Features Accelerating Mobile UsageGrowth-Sharing+Location+Friending.,Location Sharing,Communication,Music Sharing,FourSquare,Whrrl,Twitter,TextPlus,TextFree,Shazam,
16、Spotify,FB Connect for Mobile Built in Friend Connectivity,Share,Virality,Invite Friends,Share,Feed,15,KPCBs John Doerr Calls It“SoLoMo”So Lo Mo,Social,Local,Mobile,16,TIME SHIFTING TO MOBILEUSAGE,17,MonthlyPageViews(MM),Japan Social Networking Trends Show Importance of Mobile Mixi Mobile Page Views
17、=85%vs.14%4.5 Years AgoMixis(Japans Leading Social Network)Monthly Page Views,Mobile vs.PC,CQ2:06-CQ4:10,30,000,Mobile Page ViewsDesktop Page Views,85%,25,000CQ3:09 Platform opened,20,00015,00010,0005,0000,14%86%,to 3rd-party developers,15%,2Q06,4Q06,2Q07,4Q07,2Q08,4Q08,2Q09,4Q09,2Q10,4Q10,Note:Mixi
18、 is one of Japans leading social networking sites on PC and mobile with 20MM registered users as of12/31/10.It monetizes mobile usage via sales of avatars,customized homepages and other premium services.Source:Company reports,Naoshi Nema,Morgan Stanley Research18,60%of Time Spent on Smartphonesis Ne
19、w Activity for Mobile UsersAverage Time Spent on Various Mobile Functions,1/1110 minutes(12%),27 minutes(32%)Telephony Phone Skype Messages,Web/Web Apps,NEW ACTIVITY40 minutes(47%)All Other Maps Games Social Networking Utilities,More7 minutes(9%)Mail AppSource:AppsFire,1/11.Note that Android users s
20、how a higher%browsing activity.19,TotalMobileDataTraffic(Tetabytepermonth),Global Mobile Data Traffic Should Grow 26xOver Next 5 Years,Global Mobile Data Traffic,by Type2008 2015E,2010-2015ECAGR,6,000,000,5%22%,TotalM2M*,92%109%,5,000,000,4,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,000,6%66%,DataFile SharingVi
21、deoVoIP,80%62%104%42%,0,2008,2009,2010,2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E,Source:Cisco Visual Networking Index(VNI)Global Data Traffic Forecast,2010-201520,Strong Mobile Trends for Leading Social Companies,200MM mobile active users vs.50M in 9/092x more active than desktop-only users,Mobile=50%of total a
22、ctive users,vs.25%Y/YMobile=40%of all tweets,Introduction of mobile product drove 2x conversionratio from free to paying subscribersMobile users=25-30%total users in mature markets100MM mobile users vs.,50MM Y/Y,Adding 3MM users per month50%of all users subscribe on mobile,21,MOBILE ADVERTISING,GROW
23、ING PAINS BUT HUGEPROMISE,So Far,Difficult to Build Consistent Mobile Ad RevenueOwing to Lumpy Buys,Need for More Premium Advertisers2010 Mobile eCPMs for 4 KPCB Portfolio Companies$43AB,2,C,D10Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource:KPCB Companies23,Yet the Efficacy of Mobile Ads vs.O
24、ther Media isCompellingRelative Efficacy of Mobile vs.Other Advertising Media,1/11,Reach,Targeting,Engagement,Viral,Transaction,MobileInternetTVPrintRadioOutdoor,1005050406020,101010,905030,708090204010,8040101010,80602010,Source:Chetan Sharma,January 201124,%ofTotalMediaConsumptionTime,orAdvertisin
25、gSpending,25,Media Time Spent vs.Ad Spend Still Out of WhackInternet/Mobile(upside)vs.Newspaper/Magazine/TV(downside)%of Time Spent in Media vs.%of Advertising Spending,USA 2009,Time Spent,Ad Spend,50%40%39%,30%20%,26%,31%,28%,$50BGlobalOpportunity,10%,12%,16%,9%,13%,0%,Print,Radio,TV,Internet,Note:
26、Time spent data per NA Technographics(2009),ad spend data per VSS,Internet advertising opportunityassumes online ad spend share matches time spent share,per Yahoo!.Source:Yahoo!Investor Day,5/10.25,26,Advertising$s Follow Eyeballs Ad Revenue per User=$46 in 2009E vs.$0 in 1994E,1995E,2009E,Global In
27、ternet Ad RevenueAd Revenue per UserGlobal Internet Users,$55MM$96MM,$54B$461.2B,Source:Global online ad revenue per Juniper Communications(1995),ZenithOptimedia(2009).Internet users perMorgan Stanley estimate(1995)and comScore(2009).We note that comScore reports a lower global Internet user#than In
28、ternational Telecommunications Union.Morgan Stanley Research.26,Google Paid Clicks&Cost-Per-Click Continue toAccelerateMobile Search as a Key Driver?,CQ4:09,CQ1:10,CQ2:10,CQ3:10,CQ4:10,Gross Advertising Revenue($MM)Y/Y GrowthQ/Q GrowthAggregate Paid Clicks(MM)Y/Y GrowthQ/Q GrowthCost per Click(CPC-$
29、)Y/Y GrowthQ/Q Growth,$6,46517%12%12,40113%9%$0.524%3%,$6,47521%0%12,90915%4%$0.506%(4%),$6,56223%1%12,65115%-2%$0.527%3%,$7,03222%7%13,15716%4%$0.536%3%,$8,16726%16%14,66918%11%$0.567%4%,27,New&More Powerful Ad Units are Rolling OutQuickly in Mobile,Disney Super Bowl Sunday takeover campaign-All pa
30、ges of textPlus,February 7,2010,28,And Many Brands are Testing,29,Branded Virtual Goods&Sponsorships areImpactful,Interstitial,Call to action click to,mobile site,app,call,location,add tocalendar,and moreSource:Booyah and Shazam.30,-,-,-,Smartphones Can Make TV Interactive,TV Action Via Mobile:,Get
31、coupons/offers,Learn more about,products,Share content with,friends,31,M-COMMERCE,CHANGING SHOPPINGBEHAVIOR,32,eCommerceas%ofTotalRetailSales,Online Commerce Gaining Share vs.Offline Online at 5%of USA Retail,Mobile Should Get to Same Level Much FasterUSA eCommerce%Share(1)of Total Retail Sales,CQ3:
32、00-CQ4:12E,7%6%5%4%3%,eCommercePenetration4%in CQ2:10,MobileeCommerce,Penetration?2%1%0%Q3:00 Q3:01 Q3:02 Q3:03 Q3:04 Q3:05 Q3:06 Q3:07 Q3:08 Q3:09 Q3:10 Q3:11 Q3:12,eCommerce Penetration,Linear Trendline(y=0.094x+0.9895,R2=0.9599),Note:(1)Adjusted for eBay by adding back eBay US gross merchandise v
33、olume;Source:US Dept.of Commerce(CQ2:10),Morgan Stanley Research.33,Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce With Constant Product Improvements Location-Based Services Enable real-time physical retail/service opportunities Transparent Pricing Instant local+online price comparison could disrupt retailers Disc
34、ounted Offers Deep discounts drive foot traffic to local retailers Immediate Gratification OTA(over-the-air)instant digital product+content delivery,Location-Based ServicesShopkick iPhone AppFinds deals and offersin your area,Transparent PricingShopSavvy Android AppComparison shopping amongonline+lo
35、cal stores,Discounted OffersGroupon iPhone AppLocal ServicesUp to 90%Off,Immediate GratificationiTunes Store on iPhoneMusic/video/appsdelivered wirelessly,Source:Company Reports,Morgan Stanley Research.34,#ofDailyWalk-Ins,Mobile Shopping Apps-Changing Behavior+Driving Revenue&ROI For Retail Partners
36、Shopkicks Daily Walk-Ins to Retail Partners,11/15/10 12/6/10,More shopkick walk-insto a retail partner onCyber Monday due tothe 3x kickbucks,3X,CyberMonday,promotion than onBlack FridayBlackFridayThese types ofexperiments havebeen repeated adozen times at 5different retailers:every time,50-100%incre
37、ase in foottraffic,11/15,11/18,11/21,11/24,11/27,11/30,12/3,12/6,Source:Shopkick.Note Shopkick has 750K users in five months since launch.35,-,Mobile Devices+Services Driving New Ways to Shop,Mobile is clearly becoming a new way people,shopeBay has nearly tripled mobile GMV(grossmerchandise value)ye
38、ar-over-year to nearly$2billion,with strong holiday shopping momentum inQ4.In 2011,we expect Mobile GMV to double to$4billion.,John Donahoe,President&CEO,eBay,CQ4:10 Earnings Call,36,EMERGENCE OF VIRTUAL,GOODS&IN-APP COMMERCE,U.S.VirtualGoodsRevenue,($MM),Virtual Goods=$2B Market in USAU.S.Virtual G
39、oods Revenue,2008 2011E$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0,2008,2009,2010,2011,Source:Inside Virtual Goods:The US Virtual Goods Market2010-2011.38,AverageMonthlyRevenueper,User,What Are Virtual Goods Anyway?Average#of Transactions&Annual Dollar Spent by Virtual Goods,9/09$60,$50,$50,#of Transactions,Gros
40、s Dollars Spent,$40,$30,$30,$20$10,7,5,5,$20,5,$20,5,$20,5,$12,5,$11,$0Source:Playspan survey of 1736 respondents in 9/09.39,Monetization Shift From Paid Downloads To Virtual GoodsHas Been Profound For Many Developers,Average Daily Revenue for a KPCB Portfolio Company,Virtual Goods Introduction Drov
41、e 5x Revenue Increase,Source:KP Portfolio Company,40,Powerful Shift to Ad&Virtual Good Monetization fromInitial Pay per Download ModelsRevenue Composition for Pinger a KPCB Portfolio Company,12/20095%,Paid Downloads,12/2010,30%,64%,Advertising,35%,63%,Affiliate2%Virtual GoodsSource:Pinger.41,Gaming
42、Elements=Key to Success For Many Mobile/Social Applications,Gamification of apps is the ultimate way toengage a new generation of audiences.,Bing Gordon,KPCB Partner,AIAS*Hall-of-Famer,Note:*AIAS is the Academy of Interactive Arts&Sciences.,42,NOT ALL PLATFORMSARE CREATED EQUAL,Global Smartphones Hu
43、ge Android+iPhone GrowthGlobal Smartphone Market Share-Q4:10 vs.Q4:09,Q4 2010,Q4 2009,Growth,OS vendorTotalGoogle*NokiaAppleRIMMicrosoftOthers,shipments(M)1013331161533,%share100%33%31%16%14%3%3%,shipments(M)5452491142,%share100%9%44%16%20%7%3%,Q410/Q40989%615%30%86%36%-20%65%,*Note:The Google numbe
44、rs in this table relate to Android,as well as the OMS and Taps platform variants.Source:Canalys estimates,Canalys 201144,InstalledBase(MM),AppDownloadsperDay(MM),Differences in Platform Engagement Internet+AppUsage Massively Higher on Android+iOSMobile Platform Installed Base vs.App Downloads per Da
45、y,1,2001,000,17,2016,800600,11,12,400200,4,5,1,2,84,0,Installed Base(MM),App Downloads per Day(MM),0,45,Platform Differences Can Significantly Impact Monetization-Built-in Billing&In-App Commerce are Key,%of Free Users Converting To Paid,iOS vs.Other,16%,14%,iPhone,12%,10%,8%,6%,4%,Other,2%,0%,Sourc
46、e:KPCB Portfolio Companies,46,CHANGE WILL ACCELERATE,NEW PLAYERS EMERGINGRAPIDLY,Global Public Internet Companies Reflection on Changes Over Last 6 YearsTop Global 15 Publicly Traded Internet Companiesby Market Value 2011 vs.2004,2011,2010,2004,Market,Revenue,Market,Revenue,Rank Company,Region,Value
47、($B),($MM),Rank Company,Region Value($B),($MM),123456789101112131415,AppleGoogleATencenteBayBaiduYahoo!JapanYahoo!PANetflixRakutenNHNExpedia*Netease,USAUSAUSACHNUSACHNJPNUSAUSACHNUSAJPNKORUSACHN,$32719883454242222222111111875,$76,28329,32134,2041,898*9,1561,207*2,995*6,3252,338*568*2,1623,204*1,0622
48、,955573,123456789101112131415,eBayYahoo!IAC/Interactive*Yahoo!JapanGoogleAAppleRakutenMonsterWebMDIndexShandaNCSoftNHNFor-,USAUSAUSAJPNUSAUSAUSAJPNUSAUSAJPNCHNKORKORJPN,$6245373630171483222211,$3,2713,5754,1881,1013,1896,9218,27944584613435715728025385,Total,$667B,$117B,Total,$262B,$33B,3 of 2009 To
49、p 15 Companies(Alibaba,Baidu,Expedia*)Went Public Post 2004Note:2011 data as of 2/8/2010;2004 data as of 9/17/2004.*2010 data not available,2009 revenue data shown instead.*Expediawas owned by IAC/Interactive in 2004 and later spun off.Source:FactSet,Google Finance.48,Devices/Users(MMinLogScale),1,N
50、ew Computing Cycle CharacteristicsReduce Usage Friction Via Better Processing Power+Improved User Interface+Smaller Form Factor+Lower Prices+Expanded Services=10 x More DevicesComputing Growth Drivers Over Time,1960-2020EMore thanJust Phones,1,000,000100,00010,000,DesktopInternet,MobileInternet,iPad
