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1、,Market Forecast,Solar Power Advisory,ID#GS 655-100524,Global,ConcentratedSolar PowerForecasts:20102025,24 May 2010,Reese Tisdale,+1 617 551 8480,rtisdaleemerging-,2010 EMERGING ENERGY RESEARCH,LLC.All rights reserved.Reproduction of this publication inany form without prior written permission is st
2、rictlyforbidden.The information contained herein is fromsources considered reliable but its accuracy andcompleteness are not warranted,nor are the opinionsand analyses which are based upon it.,Photo:Bilfinger Berger,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025SummaryEER has outlined three fore
3、cast scenariosbase-case,high-growth,and low-growthto illustrate thetrajectory of global CSP market growth from 2010 through 2025 The base-case scenario assumes that basic regulatory and policy conditions will be met in the 25 countries analyzed.In the base-case,the CSP market will add a total of 22
4、GW through 2025,at an average of 1,354 MW net additions per year The high-growth scenario forecasts positive market changes beyond the current conditions(e.g.,improved policy mechanisms,successful technology demonstrations,and estimates that the global CSP market will grow from 612 MW at year-end 20
5、09 to 35 GWat year-end 2025.As such,the high-growth scenario is approximately 59%greater than total additions estimated for the base-caseforecast scenario The low-growth scenario reflects negative market changes(e.g.pullback from renewables policies,permitting challenges)and a failureto address cost
6、 challenges.The scenario estimates that the global CSP market will grow from 612 MW at year-end 2009 to 16 GW atyear-end 2025.As such,the low-growth scenario is approximately 30%lower than total additions estimated for the base-case forecastscenarioOver the last 12 months,the challenges facing the C
7、SP sector have increased significantly.As a result,EERhas reduced its base-case and high-case scenarios by 38%and 33%,respectively,from April 2009 Natural gas prices have declined to US$4/MMBtu to US$6/MMBtu,and are forecast to remain at similar price levels into the mediumterm,placing CSP at a grea
8、ter disadvantage during this time period The most proven and bankable parabolic trough technology has yet to demonstrate significant capital cost improvements,andemerging technologies(e.g.central receiver,dish engine)are still working toward proving out cost projections at a commercial scale.Increas
9、ed challenges to water utilization are expected to further undercut CSP cost declines in the near term Since 2008,the competitive landscape among renewable technologies(e.g.wind,solar PV)has increased significantly,including PVtechnologys significant cost declines,which are driving leading renewable
10、s developers and utilities to seek alternative solar options CSP technologys four-to-six year development timeline places it at a disadvantage in a rapidly evolving landscape,in which speed ofdeployment is critical to meeting renewables targets and capturing financing in the near term.Much of the CS
11、P activity forecasted by2020 has been shifted beyond 2020,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 2,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Summary(continued)The CSP epicenter has shifted to Spain until the US and second-tier markets gain traction At the end of 2009,Spain had 183 MW instal
12、led,compared with the 419 MW installed in the US,but Spain has quickly builtmomentum,with 1,618 MW currently under construction.Spains CSP activity is scaling rapidly in the near term,with 98%of projects utilizing parabolic trough.Spain is expected to have 533MW installed by year-end 2010 and 1,430
13、by year-end 2012 under EERs base-case scenarioStifled by the economic crisis and the near-term inability to fully leverage the federal investment tax credit(ITC),CSP development in the US has not scaled as quickly as previously forecast.The market has beengrappling with permitting challenges,water i
14、ssues,and economic constraints that have slowed its build-out Another 75 MW is in the construction phase in the US,but no significant build-out will be seen until 2012 With a more stable financial environment,by 2015 the US is expected to have 1.4 GW of CSP projects installed under the base-casescen
15、ario,and add another 4.1 GW through 2025 US annual additions under the high-growth scenario will average 515 MW per year through 2025.This figure suggests that projectsizes as large as 200 MW will result in 41 projects under the high-growth scenario and 18 projects under the low-growth scenarioBeyon
16、d the US and Spain,one-off projects are forecast to become a trend,with project cost declines,economic stabilization,and improved political supporting CSP The Middle East/Africa regions,while seeing near-term development totaling as much as 400 MW,will be challenged to scale in thenear to medium ter
17、m before CSP costs are driven down to more competitive prices with natural gas.EERs base-case scenario forthe Middle East/Africa region forecasts 3.9 GW of total installed capacity by 2025 With successful installations driven by regulatory transparency,government incentives,and improved CSP technolo
18、gy costs,momentum is expected to build in the Asia Pacific market to achieve a combined 7.4 GW of total installed capacity by 2025 The evolving DESERTEC initiative illustrates the significant potential of the region,but the obstacles remain significant into the longterm and will have no impact on th
19、e CSP sector before 2025,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 3,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Summary(continued)The solar CSP technology landscape is already shifting.Underpinned by parabolic trough systems,a rangeof innovative solutions are challenging the status quo Spains f
20、avorable FIT has limited the drive to reduce costs in the near term and has led to a greater reliance on parabolic troughtechnology,which will maintain a market share of at least 80%through 2012 Supported by the US Department of Energy Loan Guarantee program and increased adoption in India and China
21、,central receivertechnology is expected to transition into a viable technology,driving future growth after 2012 Outside of Spain,where the feed-in tariff(FIT)prevents its use beyond 12%to 15%,integrated solar combined cycle(ISCC)applications have opened another channel to market for CSP providers,in
22、cluding Florida Power&Lights 75 MW plant underconstruction in Florida,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 4,1,2,3,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Methodology,EER defines the current,Supply Potential of Existing Assets,Future Growth Requirements,market environment andgeneration
23、requirements basedon the potential for existingassets to continue to supplypower,and estimates of future,InstalledPowerPlants,Decomm-issioningSchedule,CapacityFactorAnalysis,ResourceAvailability,Supply/DemandBalance byCountry,Growth inConsum-ption,EfficiencyGains,Import/ExportBalance,ReserveMargins,
24、power demand growthEER considers short-term and long-term market drivers and inhibitors gathered from primary research,assessing relevant market participants on a bottom-up and top-down,country-by-country basis,Key Data,Short-Term Inputs:Year 15,Key Data,Long-Term Inputs:Year 515,Projects under cons
25、truction Signed PPAs Project financing secured Construction phase complete Fully permitted projects Local planning/siting issues,Projects entering permittingDeveloper CAPEX plansGovernment targets and plansPolicy incentivesExisting grid capacityAnnounced tenders,Long-term project pipeline Grid penet
26、ration Government targets Energy mix evolution Natural resources availability,Carbon policy Total technical potential Grid integration viability/storagetechnology Overall political will,Confirmed project tendersKey Assumptions by Country,EER establishes its globalconcentrated solar power forecast fr
27、om20102025SourcesSolar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Project execution probability Project delivery and completiontimelines Cost of energyEER utility/IPP ownership databaseEER project databasesEER cost of energy modelForecast modelPage 5,Energy mix evolution Renewables penetration level grid take-up
28、Competition Developers Utilities Project financebanks,Technology maturity Industrial/manufacturing build-out Carbon policy momentumGovernment agenciesPermitting authoritiesIEA,EIATransmission system operators(TSOs),Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Key Regional Factors Impacting EERs
29、 Renewables Growth Forecast,Base-Case,Low-Growth,High-Growth,Key GlobalTrend,Renewables become a key aspect ofglobal economic competition and policy,Policy uncertainty in an environment ofweak power demand,low gas prices,Climate change moves to the forefront ofenergy policy,Key Factors Influencing E
30、ERs Forecast,Assessed on a Regional BasisRenewables Policy,Renewables move to the forefront of,Weakened enforcement of renewables,government energy support Existing targets are enforced,although notachieved in all cases,policies in developed economies Lagging incentive for energy diversificationin e
31、merging economiesCarbon Policy,Enforcement of renewables policies as needfor new capacity and generation intensifies,GlobalCompetitiveMarketEnvironmentSummary,While carbon policies remain on the globalagenda,geographic dynamics prevent aninternational agreement including the US,China,and India Conti
32、nued evolution of moderate nationaland regional efforts in some markets,Economic concerns obstruct an internationalagreement Weakened enforcement and slowdown innational carbon policymaking,International agreement is enforced withbroadening national initiatives Carbon pricing takes hold,Clean and Re
33、newable Technology Supply Competition,China exports key renewable technology,Chinas role broadens to become a key,components,pushing toward low-cost limitsof existing technology US,Europe lead higher-tech areas(i.e.improved grid operation,next gen PV),Easing bottlenecks help foster incrementalcost r
34、eductions,but these are undermined bymuch lower gas pricing as subsidies wane,supplier of renewable energy systems inseveral global markets as early as 2015 Evolution of key technologies includingsuccessful CCS scale-up,floating offshore,wind turbines,and batteries after 2020EERs three scenarios ass
35、ess key market drivers,competitive and policy factors influencing overallrenewables growth,and their impact on CSP development at country and regional levels,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 6,risk,cost,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Global Forecast Assumptions,Base-Case,Lo
36、w-Growth,High-Growth,Key GlobalTrendGlobalCompetitiveMarketEnvironmentSummaryGlobal CSPCapacity Added 20102025,Renewables remain key aspect of globaleconomic competition and policyGlobal clean tech competition:A globalrace to capture key clean tech industrygrowth,with renewables a key focus ofindust
37、rial policy.Diversification:Emphasis on renewables askey source of long-term diversification andenergy security.Renewables becomecompetitive in emerging markets to a point.Slow resumption in growth:return to pre-crisis consumption levels after 2012 in OECDcountries and return to consumption growthle
38、vels by 2010 in non-OECD countriesNatural gas prices moderate:Modestdemand growth coupled with continuedadvancements in unconventional natural gasproduction see gas prices between US$4 andUS$6/MMBTU in the short-term,notexceeding US$8/MMBTU in the longer-term.21.6 GW,Policy uncertainty in an environ
39、ment ofweak power demand,low gas pricesSlow growth and uncertainty:Languishingglobal economic growth persists,constrainspolicy momentum impacting renewablesgrowth.Shift to natural gas:Natural gas remainsdominant source of new generation as lowestExisting fleet lingers:Aging coal andnuclear fleet lin
40、gers,with relatively slowdecommissioning of nuclear as plant lifetimesare extended in an environment of weakinvestment.Gas and coal prices remain weak:Relatively low economic growth and energydemand help sustain low energy prices in theUS$4-US$6/MMBTU range throughout theforecast period,with relativ
41、ely low energyprice volatility.14.9 GW,Climate change moves to forefront ofenergy policyClimate change risks:Sparked by scientificconsensus,or a major environmental event,aprice on carbon emissions is established inleading global power markets.Replacement priority:Renewables maintainexisting growth
42、trajectory,but there is a morerapid transition to nuclear and CCS(greenfieldand retrofitting)as drive to replace worldsexisting coal fleet takes precedent.Quick consumption growth rebound:Growth begins to accelerate by 2011 tocompensate for 2008 and 2009 slowdownEnergy price volatility remains an is
43、sue:Higher demand helps maintain modestupward pressure on energy prices.Naturalgas prices edge upwards over time,butremain below US$10/MMBTU throughout theentire forecast scenario.35.0 GW,EER has provided three forecasts for renewables growth in the context of varying competitive globalenergy market
44、 environments,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 7,MW,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Total Installed Capacity,40,00035,00030,000,High-Growth(2010)Base-Case(2010)Low-Growth(2010)High-Growth(2009)Base-Case(2009),Next GenerationTechnologiesCommercialize,Global Build-Out,25,00020
45、,00015,00010,0005,0000,Incentives Increased Globally,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,Estimated Industry Impacts by Year(not MW)The CSP sector is expected to scale significantly,with 1.7 GW under construction as of April 2010 andanother 14.9 G
46、W planned globally through 2014.However,delays in cost reductions,environmentalchallenges,and a more competitive landscape underpin a reduced base-case forecast from 2009,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 8,MW,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Annual Capacity Additions,4,500,Ba
47、se-Case(2010),High-Growth(2010),Global Build-Out,4,000,Low-Growth(2010)High-Growth(2009),3,500,Base-Case(2009),Next Generation,TechnologiesCommercialize3,000Incentives Increased Globally2,500Spain,2,000,Feed-InTariff,Adjusted1,5001,0005000,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,
48、2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,Estimated Industry Impacts by Year(not MW)Scaling annual additions will hinge largely on the successful commissioning of large-scale installationsand the deployment of emerging technologies that are currently in demonstration,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 9,MW
49、,Global Concentrated Solar Power Forecasts:20102025Spain Forecasts:Base-Case600500400300200100,0LowBaseHigh,2008505050,2009122122122,2010300350500,2011350450500,2012350450500,2013350450500,2014400450550,2015350400550,2016350400550,2017350400500,2018200350450,2019150300450,2020150300350,2021100300350
50、,2022100300350,2023100250300,2024100250300,2025100250300,Projects in Spain are leading the global CSP sector,with nearly 2.3 GW due to come online by the end of2013,but in the longer-term,annual growth is expected to slow,Solar Power Advisory GS 655-100524,Page 10,MW,Global Concentrated Solar Power
