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1、(,),(,),-20%,BDI,2013,2,2013,2,7,BDI,2013,BDI,10%,2013,010-S1010512050002,2.5,38%,CCBFI,2012,021-S1010511080004,2013,VLCC,-,1VLCC,TCE,1.79,20%10%,300,36%,45%EIA,0%-10%,3%,90,130,4%,2.1,2013,10/12 11/3 11/5 11/7 11/9 11/11 12/1 12/3 12/5 12/7 12/9 12/11 13/1-30%-40%,-50%,2013,-60%,2,2013,2013,1,12,20
2、1230%2012P/B=1.2,2013,ST,*ST,1.,2013,BDI,2012-12-12,2011,EPS2012E 2013E 2014E,2011,PE2012E,2013E,2014E,PB,2.624.984.384.262.68,-0.230.310.09-1.020.02,0.02-0.140.01-0.750.05,0.050.010.040.010.13,0.060.050.050.010.27,n.a.16.148.7n.a.134.0,131.0n.a.438.0n.a.53.6,52.4440.0109.5426.020.6,43.799.687.6426.
3、09.9,1.20.71.11.61.2,*ST,1.39,-0.23,-0.31,-0.11,0.01,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,139.0,1.0,2013,2,6,PB,2013,2,.1.1.2.3.5.5.5.6.7.9.9.9.10.11.12.12.12.13.14.14.15,1 BDI,2 BCI,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,24,25,26,27 1,31,32,33,34,35,2013,2,.1.1.1.1,PanamaxCapesize,TCE.2TCE.2.2.2,910,1PanamaxHandymax,.3.3.3,.4
4、.4.4.4.4.4,18 Capesize19 Panamax,FFAFFA,.5.5,20 BDTI2122232829 Brent,BCTIVLCCSuezmaxAframaxVLCC,.6TCE.6TCE.6TCE.6.7.7.7.7.7.8,30,OPEC,.8.8.8.8.8.9,36,38,39,40,41,43,44,46,48,49,50,1,2,2013,2,.10,37,-,.10,.10.11.11.11,42,1,.11.12.12,45,PMI,.12.12,47,PE,PB,.13,.14.14.14.5.15,/,/,2013,2,1,BDI,1,BDI,760
5、,61,8.7%1,BDI,771,26%,10%,CapesizeBPI,BCI719,144139%BSI,22%,726,9%,Panamax21%,1,Cape,TCE,8079,/,79.7%Panamax,TEC,2811,47%,Cape,12250,Panamax Handymax,Handysize,8125,/,8750,/,7250,/,1,1070.2,25,870.4,6.6,1173.2,22.5,718,12.2,1,-,0.9/,35.6,/,-,1.7,/,28.3/,1,BDI,2,BCI,3,Bloomberg,4,Bloomberg,1,2013,2,5
6、,Panamax,TCE,6,Capesize,TCE,Clarkson,Clarkson,1,147,10.3%,12,0.2%,Capesize,26,2013,1,44%,679.171,2012,332,10.3%,58.2%,2012,12,140,51.6%,3.7%,20.1%7,1Clarkson,136.21,8,Clarkson,2,2013,2,9,Clarkson,1,1012,Clarkson,Panamax,1,1,11,Clarkson,Handymax107.89,1040/,1025/,5,/,1,7000,201215.1,2012,7.11.3%,7.5,
7、3.6%,2.7%,8.5%,47%20124.5%2013,GDP,BJ,1,88.5,/,0.76,/,FOB,87.78,/,2012,3,2013,2,10,/,1,1,620,/,121416,2012BloombergBloombergBloomberg,2,2,2.5,131517,805BloombergBloombergBloomberg,38%,4,-,2013,2,1,2013,2,2013,10%,3,BDI,FFA4BDI,3,2013,1,2,18,Capesize,FFA,19,Panamax,FFA,25,000,2013/1/24,2013/1/31,10,0
8、00,2013/1/17,2013/1/25,20,00015,00010,0005,000,9,0008,0007,0006,000,0Feb-13 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13,2013,2014,2015,5,000Jan-Mar 13,Apr-Jun 13,Jul-Sep 13,Oct-Dec 13,2013,2014,2015,1,Bloomberg,Bloomberg,20083,209,20093,126,20103,518,20113,713,20123,846,2013E4,033,%Change%ChangeBDI,
9、3%4187%-4%6390,-3%455.249%-12%2616,13%530.2116%-4%2758,6%609.1315%-9%1549,4%677.711%-8%920,5%754.711%-6%1200,Clarkson,1,VLCC,2013,1,BDTI,647,12.2%BCTI,1,1,728,1,702,5.8%,-,VLCC,TCETCE,1.79,11369,36%,45%5%,1,5,/,2013,2,1,VLCC,500,2.1,/Aframax,Panamax,Suezmax,1.4,1.65,/,20,BDTI,BCTI,21,VLCC,TCE,Bloomb
10、erg,Bloomberg,22,Suezmax,TCE,23,Aframax,TCE,Bloomberg,Bloomberg,13.8%,492.67,10,112,500,40,2012,2%78%,10,2013,1,handy,30,58.9,12%6,/,/,/,2013,2,24,Clarkson,25,Clarkson,2628,ClarksonVLCC,27,1,Clarkson,240,2011,2012,2007,2008,2009,2010,2001601208040-,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,Clarkson,1,Brent,116.54,
11、/,113,/,1.8%,2.7%,2012,12,OPEC,30389,30636,247,OPEC,2013,1,835.4,0.67%,2012,2.7,8%,12,2357,11.6%,7,/,/,2013,2,29,Brent,/,30,OPEC,31,Bloomberg,32,Bloomberg,Bloomberg,10,0009,5009,0008,5008,0007,5007,000,Bloomberg,2,6002,4002,2002,0001,8001,6001,4001,200,33,Bloomberg,34,Bloomberg,8,2013,2,35,Bloomberg
12、,EIA,20132.1,90,IMF1302013100/,2013,3%,3.5%,2012,201312%20134%1,2013,1,2012,12,2,1,1142.43.0%1508.4,12,2.6%17.7%,1463.7,4.4%3.6%1114.7 1273.7,2013,1,7.3%,2,1,2475,/FEU,3630,/FEU,12,11.3%,7.9%,19,2013,2,3638,37,-,/,1,1537.5,TEU,0.4%,7.2%,8000TEU+,322.4,385.9TEU,TEU,0.4%,1.37%,23%3000-8000TEU4.28%2013
13、 1,59.6,TEU,1,12,9.04,TEU,1,2013,1,12,19,TEU,342.4,68.6%TEU,75.1%,21.1%10,2013,2,39,Clarkson,TEU,40,Clarkson,41,Clarkson,2013,1,42,Clarkson73.8,1,TEU,2012,12,95.4,35.7,2012,11,10.3,1,PMI,53.1,2.9,PMI,50,1.5,PMI,1,2013 1,Markit,(PMI),47.9,47.5,2012,12,46.1,1,50,PMI,50.4,4,50,2012,12,51.6,0.4,12,2012,
14、12,2013,1,12,10%11%,1212,14%1%,12,11,2013,2,43,Bloomberg,44,Bloomberg,45,PMIBloomberg,46,Bloomberg,TEU,2013,1,3,10,150,/TEU 300,/FEU,-,20,40,150,2013PB,1 12 3A,PB,12,2,12,Jan09,Jan05,Jan06,Jan08,Jan07,Jan10,Jan11,Jan13,Jan12,Jul10,Jul07,Jul05,Jul06,Jul08,Jul09,Jul11,Jul12,2013,2,2005A,PB,PB,1.2,2.7,
15、12.5,PB,1.1,2013,2,PB,0.44,PB,0.81PB,0.97,PB,1.13,A,47120100806040200,PE,PE,PB,PB,14121086420,Wind2013BDI2BDI2013,ST,*ST,BDI9,EPS,PE,X,PB X,11A,12E,13E,14E,11A,12E,13E,14E,12E,2.624.984.384.262.68,7.8%-14.5%6.9%-9.0%2.3%,-0.230.310.09-1.020.02,0.02-0.140.01-0.750.05,0.050.010.040.010.13,0.060.050.05
16、0.010.27,n.a.16.148.7n.a.134.0,131.0n.a.438.0n.a.53.6,52.4440.0109.5426.020.6,43.799.687.6426.09.9,1.20.71.11.61.2,*ST,1.39,-28.7%,-0.23,-0.31,-0.11,0.01,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,139.0,1.0,66.2,207.5,209.7,134.3,1.1,2013-2-613,9,5,2013,2,1,110.07,5.4%,56.61 72.80,9,19.5%,8.1%Diana,Shipping Eagle Bulk Dryships
17、 Quintana Maritime Excel Maritime Shipping CORP IndiaPrecious Kawasaki Kisen Pacific BasinTeekay Shipping OMI Overseas Shipping ShipFinance General Maritime Tsakos Enegry Knightsbridge Nordic Amer Tank Arlington TankerFrontline LTD,MAERSKB DAC,Hanjin,48,Bloomberg,2005,6,1,49,Bloomberg,100,50Bloomber
18、g14,2013,2,2013,22013,5,PE,52,2013,PB,PE0.44,120,PB2013,1.13,PE,2,18,PB,0.97,EPS,PE,PB,ROE,2011A,2012E,2013E,2011A,2012E,2013E,2012E,2012E,TEEKAY SHIPPINGFRONTLINE LTD,USDUSD,-5.25-6.80,-0.78-1.38,0.14-1.47,N.A.N.A.,N.A.N.A.,260.29N.A.,1.742.22,-2.31-59.52,OVERSEAS SHIPPING,USD,-7.20,-4.81,N.A.,N.A.
19、,-13.77,SHIP FINANCETSAKOS ENERGYKNIGHTSBRIDGE TANORDIC AMER TANK,USDUSDUSDUSD,1.66-1.941.34-1.53,1.65-0.640.54-1.14,1.48-0.150.07-0.97,5.77N.A.10.28N.A.,10.16N.A.11.96N.A.,11.35N.A.89.72N.A.,1.440.240.580.56,15.39-3.622.47-6.96,8.02,11.06,120.45,1.13,-9.76,DIANA SHIPPING,USD,1.33,0.69,-0.16,9.39,N.
20、A.,0.56,4.64,EAGLE BULK SHIPPGENCO SHIPPINGDRYSHIPS INCEXCEL MARITIMEPRECIOUS SHIPPINKAWASAKI KISENPACIFIC BASIN,USDUSDUSDUSDTHBJPYHKD,-0.960.72-0.21-2.510.6940.080.02,-5.87-3.22-0.34-1.510.13-64.28-0.04,-5.32-2.910.02-1.310.636.400.02,N.A.N.A.N.A.24.2712.79,N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.,N.A.N.A.N.A.26.0
21、976.92,0.070.110.240.031.120.530.85,-15.65-11.86-4.46-8.930.80-17.35-7.66,15.48,51.50,0.44,-7.56,TWDTWD,-3.33-0.89,-0.870.32,0.731.19,N.A.N.A.,N.A.10.56,15.499.60,1.280.99,-6.264.90,OOIL,HKD,0.29,0.44,0.53,7.98,7.77,6.80,0.96,6.18,DKK,3479,4191,4612,44.70,0.91,9.58,DANAOS CORPORATION,USD,0.12,0.53,0
22、.60,26.36,15.65,12.93,0.84,6.71,HKDHKD,-0.240.29,0.000.44,0.040.53,N.A.17.17,11.33,17.90,0.860.960.97,0.696.184.00,Bloomberg,2013,2,5,15,-,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the
23、views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch
24、report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securiti
25、es”,regulated by the China SecuritiesRegulatory Commission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securitiespursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6,and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.,“,”,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
