《ASIAEQUITYINSIGHTSQUARTERLY：PREFERVALUEOVERGROWTH1213.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ASIAEQUITYINSIGHTSQUARTERLY：PREFERVALUEOVERGROWTH1213.ppt（44页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、,Market,First Quarter 2013,Equity StrategyAsia,abcGlobal Research,Asia Equity Insights QuarterlyPrefer value over growth Global growth remains modest.We expect low double-digitAsian earnings growth,slightly higher than last years 9%We also expect Asian equities to rise 15-20%and value tooutperform g
2、rowth in 2013 We are overweight China,Korea and Indonesia andunderweight the Philippines,Thailand and Hong KongModest growth.We believe 2013 will be more or less the same as 2012,with low globalgrowth and continued implementation of quantitative easing by global central banks,possibly also in Japan,
3、later in 2013.15-20%potential upside in Asian equities driven by:1)10-12%EPS growth in Asia ex-Japan,slightly higher than 9%in 2012,2)a 4-5%rerating and 3)a 3-4%dividend yield.,Herald van der Linde*Head of Equity Strategy,Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited+852 2996.hkDe
4、vendra Joshi*Equity Strategist,Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited+852 2996.hkView HSBC Global Research at:http:/,Not cyclicals,but value investing.Against a backdrop of weak growth,we argueinvestors should adopt a value bias in their portfolios.Asias best value markets
5、are Chinaand Korea while Consumer discretionary is the key value sector.Stock-picking themes.Aside from preferring value over growth,our other key themesfocus on companies that 1)can grow on the back of market consolidation,2)have marginpower and can effectively control costs and 3)enjoy structural
6、growth.Markets and sectors.We are overweight China,Korea,Indonesia as well as Consumerdiscretionary,Energy and IT.This note is accompanied by Asia Super Ten:An equityportfolio reflecting our best ideas in Asia(13 December),where we make changes to ourSuper Ten portfolio.HSBC Asia ex-Japan Equity Str
7、ategy recommendations,*Employed by a non-US affiliate of,HSBC weighting(previous)Sector,HSBC weighting(previous),HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is notregistered/qualified pursuant to FINRAregulationsIssuer of report:The Hongkong andShanghai BankingCorporation LimitedDisclaimer&DisclosuresThis report mu
8、st be readwith the disclosures andthe analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it,ChinaIndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaSingaporeTaiwanIndiaThailandHong KongPhilippinesSource:HSBC,OverOverOver(Neutral)Neutral(Over)NeutralNeutral(Under)Neutral(Under)Under(Over
9、)Under(Neutral)Under,Consumer discretionaryEnergyITHealthcareFinancialsIndustrialsUtilitiesTelecomsConsumer staplesMaterials,OverOverOver(Neutral)Neutral(Over)NeutralNeutral(Under)Neutral(Under)Under(Neutral)Under(Neutral)Under,2,EquityStrategy,Asia,FirstQuarter2013,abc,serve as rerating,associated
10、key,events could,and the,Country snapshot,CountryWeight in MSCI AsiaCountry weightingCurrentPreviousADTV(USDbn)Market cap(USDbn)Key sub-sectors,China24%OverweightOverweight14.52,324Financials(39%),Energy,Korea20%OverweightNeutral3.61,024Technology(37%),Cons,Taiwan14%NeutralUnderweight3.1719Technolog
11、y(55%),Hong Kong12%UnderweightNeutral8.62,624Financials(62%),Utilities,India9%NeutralUnderweight2.81,253Financials(32%),Singapore7%NeutralNeutral1.1670Financials(51%),Malaysia5%NeutralOverweight0.4292Financials(31%),Indonesia4%OverweightOverweight0.4422Financials(32%),Cons,Thailand3%UnderweightOverw
12、eight1.1365Financials(40%),Energy,Philippines1%UnderweightNeutral0.2222Financials(38%),Asia ex Japan36.89,916Financials(32%),(18%),Telecom,Disc(18%),Financials,(14%),Cons,Technology,Industrials,Industrials,Disc(16%),(25%),Materials,Industrials,Technology,(12%)Industrials(13%)(15%),Materials(13%),Dis
13、c(12%),(16%),Energy(24%),Telecom(14%),Telecom(13%)(12%)(13%),Telecom(13%),(13%),(35%),Telecom(12%),(18%),Industrials(9%),Three largest stocks,China Mobile,Samsung TSMC,Hon Hai,AIA Group,Sun HDFC,Reliance,DBS Group,May Bank,CIMB,Astra Intl,Bank,Siam SM Investments,Samsung,CCB,ICBC,Electronics,MediaTe
14、k,Hung Kai,Indus,HDFC,Singapore,Group,SIME,Central Asia,Commercial,Ayala Land,Electronics,Hyundai Motor,Hutchison,Bank Telecom,OCBC,Darby,Telekomunikasi,Bank,PTT,PLDT,TSMC,China,POSCO,Whampoa,Indo,Advanced Info,Mobile,4Q12 performance,Absolute(USD terms)Relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan,10.1%6.4%,2.2%-
15、1.5%,0.8%-2.9%,4.4%0.7%,0.7%-3.0%,1.0%-2.7%,-0.3%-4.0%,-0.6%-4.3%,1.2%-2.5%,10.4%6.7%,3.7%,Key statistics,12-month forward PE(x)12-month forward PB(x)12-month forward DY(x)12-month forward ROE(%)EPS growth 2012e(%)EPS growth 2013e(%)Earnings momentum(%),9.71.43.214.41.09.5-3.6,8.51.11.212.833.617.32
16、.9,14.41.73.411.55.624.9-3.5,15.01.33.08.4-14.811.43.2,14.02.21.615.79.014.72.6,13.61.43.610.36.44.8-1.5,14.01.93.613.510.07.60.4,13.32.92.921.86.113.2-2.7,11.12.03.817.713.217.70.6,16.92.62.315.513.711.55.2,11.31.42.712.88.513.62.5,Reasons for country weighting,Reasons:,Further upsidefrom stable,At
17、tractive Tech-dominated Our relatively Govt is makingvaluation even export-oriented cautious stance attempts to rein,Stable,low betamarket with high,No catalyst for Probability ofthe market but positive growth,Growth is We like thenormalising,macro story,but,growth,after huge,equity market.on Hong K
18、ong is,in fiscal deficit,dividend yield.,funds are,surprises,the chances of rate,investors have,structural,foreign inflows.Also an unloved mainly based on,and pass,Valuations are,underweight lack of optimism hike next year.It already priced in,adjustment and,Exports likely to,market that its rich va
19、luation,important,reasonable,Malaysian among investors also has political,this story and,benign inflation.,recover from,offers a high and well-owned,reforms.,earnings growth,equities.2013,&the sell side risks.However,it,equity markets,Reform agenda,domestic,dividend yield.,positions,Economic,expecta
20、tions are earnings growth following recent remains a good are expensive.It,demand,and Taiwan is one of indicated by the growth is atimprovement in the most mutual fund inflection pointChinas underweight holdings and expected toeconomy.Large markets in the bounce back to,low,but realistic.expectation
21、s at underperformanc long-term story is the most over-There may be 8%are realistic e relative to owned market innegative news ASEAN,and a Asia.We expectflow about the domestic the central bank,catalysts forChineseequities.China isalso the,cap globalbrands continueto gain marketshare;there is,region,
22、above 6%.Corporateearningsmomentum is,labour market,demand-led,high ROE growthstory,to starttighteningliquidity by2Q13,which is,cheapest marketin the region,much potential togrow institutional,also turningpositive,again a risk forequities,assets as wellSource:Bloomberg,Thomson Reuters Datastream,Exc
23、hange websites,MSCI,HSBCWe acknowledge the contribution of Anurag Dayal,Associate in our Bangalore office,to the production of this report.,EquityStrategy,Asia,FirstQuarter2013,abc,3,term positive,story.,Sector snapshot,Sector,Financials,Technology,Industrials,Consumer,Energy,Telecom,Materials,Consu
24、mer,Utilities,Healthcare,Asia ex Japan,Discretionary,Staples,Weight in MSCI Asia ex JapanKey sub-sectors,32%Banks,RealEstate and,18%Hardware,Software,9%Transport,Shipbuilding,9%KR and CH,Autos,Retailers,7%Oil Refiners,Distributors,7%Telecom,Internet,Media,7%Steel,Coal,6%4%Food&Electric and GasBevera
25、gesUtilities,1%Generics,Hospitals,Financials(32%),Insurance,Technology,(18%),Industrials(9%),Sector weighting,CurrentPrevious,neutralneutral,overweightneutral,neutralunderweight,overweightoverweight,overweightoverweight,underweightneutral,underweightunderweight,underweightneutral,neutralunderweight,
26、neutraloverweight,Trading data,ADTV(USDm),3,073,2,496,1,324,1,326,726,677,864,640,314,118,11,558,Aggregated market cap(USDbn),915.8,521.6,260.8,262.5,202.7,186.0,186.0,157.0,106.4,30.8,2,829,Performance 4Q12,AbsoluteRelative to MSCI Asia,5.9%2.2%,5.1%1.4%,1.3%-2.4%,2.1%-1.6%,4.0%0.3%,1.4%-2.3%,-1.3%
27、-5.0%,2.3%-1.4%,4.0%0.3%,1.6%-2.1%,3.7%,Key statistics,12-month forward PE(x)12-month forward PB(x)12-month forward DY(x)12-month forward ROE(%)EPS growth 2012e(%)EPS growth 2013e(%)Earnings momentum(%),10.11.13.311.44.86.12.2,11.21.82.116.240.326.312.3,11.51.22.610.1-2.914.90.7,9.61.72.317.438.413.
28、65.8,9.61.43.114.3-9.69.6-8.0,13.21.94.614.52.67.83.0,11.11.22.610.7-24.227.8-11.6,18.92.72.214.41.118.00.1,14.11.42.99.951.725.011.1,20.12.50.912.412.616.04.4,11.01.42.412.88.513.62.5,Reasons for sector weighting:,Sector remains a,Second most Cyclical sector;Among the least,Defensive sector,Valuati
29、ons are For aluminium,High valuation Mutual funds are Valuations have,macro call;,under-owned,benefits from owned sectors in,with cheap expensive at 12-global production and over owned.,overweight but,become too,positive long-,sector.Expect,improving,Asia by mutual,valuations.,month forward levels r
30、emain too,The sector is,benign coal expensive and it,term story and upside surprise,economic funds.It is very,Earnings,PE of 20.1x;high.We expect trading at a 12-,prices,limited is the most over-,attractive to 2013 earnings,outlook.Some cheap compared,expectations,second most copper prices to,month
31、forward,tariff pressure owned sector but,valuations.,expectations.,countries,to consumer,might have some owned sector in decline in 2013,PE of 18.7x,and recovering we still like it on a,Central banks,Unit growth in,prospects for staples,should,negative,the region and,driven by an,which is way power
32、demand,fundamental,have cut rates,tech will remain,industrials benefit from an,surprises but,we expect,increased,above its own create a positive basis and long-,loan growth is concentrated in remain lacklustre expectedslowing and smartphones.in 2013 owing to recovery incompetition for We remain weak
33、 demand China demand in,mutual fund negative news surplus.Drivers historical outlook in 2013holdings suggest flow.The key risk of the previous average.Manythat investors are is pricing global upcycle-commodity,deposits hasbecome more,bullish on thethemes of size,and a lack ofmarket,2013.Therecould b
34、e some,overly bearishand,as such,the,regulation loose monetary prices havepolicy and 2009 softened,which,evident.Asset,migration and,consolidation.upside surprises,risk of a surprise,fiscal stimulus in,should help,quality risks are,increased,Transport is,on earnings in,is on the upside.,China,debt,m
35、argins and,relatively benign,resolution for the expected to see the discretionary,We expect oil,accumulation in,provide some,non-interestincome remainskey,LCD market,a recovery indemand in 2013,led by air cargo,space,majors tocontinue toengage in,the West are no earnings surpriselonger prevalent,ove
36、rseas M&ANote:The trading data and market cap are for MSCI Indices.Source:Bloomberg,Thomson Reuters Datastream,MSCI,HSBC,Equity StrategyAsiaFirst Quarter 2013HSBC Asia ex-Japan Equity Strategy recommendationsMarket recommendations,abc,MarketChinaKoreaTaiwanHong KongIndiaSingaporeMalaysiaIndonesiaTha
37、ilandPhilippines,HSBC recommendationOverOverNeutralUnderNeutralNeutralNeutralOverUnderUnder,Previous quarterOverNeutralUnderNeutralUnderNeutralOverOverOverNeutral,Relative performance 3M6.2%-1.5%-3.0%0.8%3.7%-5.7%-7.0%-7.5%-3.1%5.2%,End-2013 target702,3008,30024,00021,7003,4701,8305,0001,4756,240,Cu
38、rrent index611,9577,61022,27719,4103,1141,6324,3031,3355,758,Change(%)14.1%17.5%9.1%7.7%11.8%11.4%12.1%16.2%10.5%8.4%,Source:HSBC,data as of 10 Dec 2012Sector recommendations,SectorFinancialsIndustrialsITConsumer discretionaryMaterialsConsumer staplesTelecomsUtilitiesEnergyHealthcare,HSBC recommenda
39、tionNeutralNeutralOverOverUnderUnderUnderNeutralOverNeutral,Previous quarterNeutralUnderNeutralOverUnderNeutralNeutralUnderOverOver,Relative performance 3M2.8%-4.0%2.5%-2.8%-3.8%-4.2%-3.5%-0.1%1.4%-2.7%,Source:HSBC,data as of 10 Dec 20124,6,6,6,9,12,31,13,33,15,18,20,37,37,20,25,25,Equity StrategyAs
40、iaFirst Quarter 2013Contents,abc,Investment strategyMuch the sameA key differenceValue search,Malaysia(neutral)Why we downgrade to neutralSingapore(neutral),272729,Four themesJapanWhat could go wrong?Market and sectorrecommendations,111113,Why we are neutralTaiwan(neutral)Why we upgrade to neutralIn
41、dia(neutral),293133,Asian equity scorecardCountry views,14,Why we upgrade to neutral,Sector viewsScorecard methodologyChina(overweight)and HongKong(underweight)Why we are overweight China and downgradeHong Kong to underweight,The Philippines(underweight)Why we are underweightThailand(underweight)Why
42、 we downgrade to underweightDisclosure appendix,353541,Korea(overweight)Why we upgrade to overweight,2323,Disclaimer,43,Indonesia(overweight)Why we are overweight5,Equity StrategyAsiaFirst Quarter 2013Investment strategy We see 15-20%potential upside in Asian equities in 2013 Although the growth out
43、look remains subdued,risks to this growthare falling We identify four key themes that drive stock allocation:A keytheme is value outperforming growth across Asia,abc,Much the sameEquities in a subdued growthenvironmentAgainst a very subdued growth environment,Asian equity markets were able to eke ou
44、t double-digit returns in 2012 on the back of high single-digit earnings growth,a slight rerating and adividend yield of 3%.We think it will be a similar story in 2013.Economic growth in the region is likely to remainsubdued but the combination of some earningsgrowth,a slight rerating and dividend y
45、ieldsshould allow Asia to generate similar total returnsin 2013.We expect Asian earnings to grow 10-12%in2013,a little higher than 2012(currentlyestimated at 8.6%)and not far off currentconsensus estimates of 13.6%.This recovery in earnings growth comes againstsome pretty conservative estimates for
46、thecurrent year.In China,analysts see virtually noearnings growth in 2012 and have penned in 9.5%EPS growth in 2013,which seems modestagainst an 8.9%sales growth assumption and8.1%GDP growth.,And even in Korea where analysts typicallykick off the year with highly optimistic forecastsonly to then cut
47、 them when the actual results rollin the 17%consensus forecasts are probablyfairly realistic.This is important,as a low base in 2012 sets thetone for growth in 2013.Add to this a low double-digit earnings growth scenario for the comingcalendar year,a further slight rerating(say 4-5%)and 3-4%dividend
48、 yields,and this should allowfor another year of double-digit returns in Asianequities.We see Asian markets some 15-20%higher by the end of 2013.A key differenceNot cyclical growth,but lower riskA marked difference with 12 months ago is thatsome issues are now much clearer.Part of thecredit for this
49、 decline in risk goes to central banksin Europe and the US which have removed tailrisks from equities by rolling out various easingpolicies.Japan could join the club if it changes itsmonetary stance in April.Regionally,the fog surrounding Asian earningsforecasts is also slowly clearing.Last year,the
50、uncertainty regarding a Chinese recovery,weaker,US growth and the situation in Europe added6,75,65,55,45,35,25,40,30,20,10,0,-20,Equity StrategyAsiaFirst Quarter 2013significant risks to Asian corporates,both in termsof their ability to grow as well as financing risks,customers.Receivables have move
