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1、Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-11,Apr-11,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Dec-12,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,20%,10%,-30%,-40%,-50%,600,Sector Report:Coal Sector行业报告：煤炭行业,Leo Wu 吴逸超+86 755 23976871,26 December 2012Excess New Capacity to Suppress Coal Price,“Neutral”过多新增产能仍将压制煤价，“中性”,Based on expect
2、ation of single digits major industrial production growth,weexpect total electricity consumption to increase 7.5%YoY and thermalelectricity generation to increase 7.9%YoY in 2013.Raw coal consumption volume is expected to reach 4 billion tons in 2013.During 2012-2013,the raw coal consumption increas
3、es are,Rating:评级：,NeutralDowngraded中性(下调),approximately 476Mt/a,while the new raw coal capacity in the sameperiod is estimated to amount to approximately 900Mt/a,about 1.9x theconsumption increase.,1 Year Coal Sector Stocks Performance1 年煤炭行业个股股价表现50%,Based on the excess supply capacity of raw coal
4、in 2012 and 2013,we expectthat the QHD 5,500 Kcal thermal coal price in 2013 will maintain relativelyweak at a range between RMB600-700/t,with average of RMB675/t,down4.3%YoY.The abolishment of key-contract-coal system and dual-coal-price system isconsidered to have a long-term influence on domestic
5、 coal market rather thansignificant short-term shocks.We expect the benchmark contract coal,40%30%0%-10%-20%,price(QHD 5,500Kcal basis)to increase approximately 3%YoY in 2013.,Dec-11,Feb-12,Apr-12,Jun-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Combining the changes of both spot price and contract price,we expect theaverage r
6、ealised coal price for major Chinese coal miners to decrease YoY in2013,and the margins of coal miners are estimated to remain at low levels.,HSIYanzhou Coal-HSource:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.,China Shenhua-HChina Coal-H,We revise down the rating for coal sector to“Neutral”.Our top pick i
7、sChina Shenhua(01088 HK),with“Accumulate”rating and TP of,2 Year QHD 5,500Kcal Coal Price2 年秦皇岛 5,500 大卡煤价,HK$36.00,representing 12.0 x/11.6x/10.9x FY12/13/14 PER.,900,RMB/t,QHD Spot Price(5,500Kcal),Annual QHD 5,500 Avg,基于主要工业产品产量单位数增速的预期，我们预计 2013 年全社会用电量同比增长 7.5%，火电发电量同比增长 7.9%。2013 年原煤消费量预计达到 40
8、 亿吨。2012-2013 年间，原煤消费增量总计约 4.76 亿吨/年，而同期新增原煤产能预计达到 9 亿吨/年，相当于 1.9 倍的消费增量。基于 2012 和 2013 年过剩的供应能力，我们预期 2013 年秦皇岛 5,500 大卡动力煤价将维,850800750700650,818.2,706.0,持相对疲弱，幅度区间在人民币 600-700 元/吨，均价预期为 675 元/吨，同比降 4.3%。550,我们认为重点合同煤制度以及煤价双轨制的取消对国内煤炭市场的影响是长期而非短期的显著冲击。我们预计 2013 年合同煤基准价（秦皇岛 5,500 大卡标准）同比上涨约 3%。结合现货煤
9、价与合同煤价的变化，我们预计 2013 年中国大型煤炭企业的煤炭平均销售单价仍将同比下跌，煤企利润率水平预计维持在低位。我们下调煤炭行业评级至“中性”。我们首选为中国神华（01088 HK），评级为“收集”，目标价为 36.00 港元，相当于 12.0倍/11.6 倍/10.9 倍的 12/13/14 财年市盈率。,500Source:CCTD,Guotai Junan International.,Company Name公司名称,Code编号,Price股价,Rating投资评级,12PER市盈率,13 PER市盈率,14 PER市盈率,12 ROE净资产收益率,12 P/B市净率,12
10、Yield股息率,(HK$),(x),(x),(x),(%),(x),(%),ShenhuaChina CoalYanzhou CoalWeighted Average.市值加权平均,01088 HK01898 HK01171 HK,33.558.2612.72,AccumulateNeutralNeutralNeutral,11.210.89.311.0,10.810.011.910.8,10.29.610.110.1,19.99.612.318.0,2.11.01.11.7,3.5%2.6%3.2%3.4%,Source:the Companies,Guotai Junan Interna
11、tional,Bloomberg.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 10,2004A,2005A,2006A,2007A,2008A,2010A,2009A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2004A,2005A,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2004A,2005A,2006A,2007A,2008A,2010A,2009A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2004A,2005A,2006A,2007A,2008A,2010A,2009A,2011A,2012F,20
12、13F,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,26December2012,Coal Consumption Outlook for 2013Production volumes of major industrial products are expected to realize single digit growth in 2012.For the first 11months in 2012,the growths of the major 4 high energy-consuming industrial products,synthesis ammonia,ce
13、ment,pig ironand ten non-ferrous metals,are 6.4%,6.2%,4.5%,and 8.3%respectively.The growths are relatively slow compared with theCAGR for the period from 2004 to 2011 except for the synthesis ammonia(CAGRs of 2.6%,11.7%,13.2%and 13.2%during2004-2011 for synthesis ammonia,cement,pig iron and ten non-
14、ferrous metals respectively).We believe the slowdowns ofthe growths of cement,pig iron and non-ferrous metals in 2012 were mainly due to the slowdown of Chinas investmentgrowth(FAI up 20.7%YoY for the first 11 months in 2012 vs.26.6%CAGR in 2003-2011)and the weak overseas demand.For 2013,we expect t
15、he growth of cement,pig iron and non-ferrous metals to continue stepping down further whilesynthesis ammonia increases stably.According to our steel and cement analyst,the cement and pig iron production areboth expected to grow at only 3.0%YoY in 2013.We further assume that the synthesis ammonia and
16、 ten non-ferrous metalsto grow at 5.0%YoY and 6.5%YoY in 2013 respectively.,Figure-1:Synthesis ammonia to maintain stable growth,Figure-2:Cement to only up 3%in 2013,60,Mt,Synthesis ammonia,YoY,14%,Mt2,500,Cement,YoY,25%,504030,11.4%,8.1%,7.0%,5.4%,3.9%,6.0%,6.5%,5.0%,12%10%8%6%,2,0001,500,12.2%11.6
17、%,19.1%,13.5%,17.9%,15.5%16.1%,20%15%,4%,1,000,10%,20,2%,5.2%,6.5%,10,-1.9%,-2.4%,0%,500,3.0%,5%,-2%,0,-4%,0,0%,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Figure-3:Pig iron to only up 3%in 2013,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Fig
18、ure-4:Non-ferrous metals to increase 6.5%in 2013,Mt800,28.2%,Pig iron,YoY,30%,Mt45,Ten Non-Ferrous Metals,YoY,30%,25.6%,700,25%,40,24.4%,25%,600500,19.8%,15.2%,15.9%,20%15%,3530 17.4%25,15.5%,18.5%,17.3%,20%,400,15%,7.4%,8.4%,10%,20,10.6%,300200100,-0.2%,4.5%,3.0%,5%0%,15105,8.2%,5.8%,8.5%,6.5%,10%5
19、%,0,-5%,0,0%,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Page 2 of 10,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,26December2012,3,500,Based on the growth of major industrial produc
20、ts,we estimate the electricity consumption of the fourhigh-energy-consuming industries(Chemicals,Cement,Ferrous,and Non-ferrous)and heavy industry respectively.According to historical relationships and assumptions between the production volumes and electricity consumptions,weestimate the electricity
21、 consumptions of Chemicals industry,Cement industry,Ferrous industry and Non-ferrous industry willincrease by 5.4%,4.1%,6.9%and 5.5%respectively.As a result,we estimate that the 4 high-energy-consuming will increaseby 2.9%YoY in 2012,and may increase by 5.7%YoY in 2013.We expect the ratio of electri
22、city consumption of the 4high-energy-consuming industries to heavy industry to maintain at the level of 52-53%,which results in 6.1%YoYgrowth of heavy industry electricity consumption in 2013.,Figure-5:Estimated electricity consumptions of the 4high-energy-consuming industries,Figure-6:The electrici
23、ty consumption of the 4high-energy-consuming industries to grow 5.7%YoY in2013,MMWh1,800,The 4 high-energy-consumingCementNon-ferrous,ChemicalsFerrous,35%,The 4 high-energy-consumingCementNon-ferrous,ChemicalsFerrous,1,6001,400,30%25%,1,2001,000800,20%15%10%,21.5%,18.2%,12.8%,600400,5%0%,4.0%,0.4%,2
24、.9%,5.7%,2000,-5%-10%,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,Source:Guotai Junan International.Figure-7:The electricity consumption ratio of the 4high-energy-consuming industries to heavy industry todecrease slightly in 2013,Source:Guotai Junan Inte
25、rnational.Figure-8:Heavy industry electricity consumption toincrease 6.1%YoY in 2013,100%90%,The 4 high-energy-consuming industries power consumption/Heavyindustry power consumption,MMWh18.5%18.3%3,000,Heavy industry16.6%,YoY,20.0%18.0%,80%,16.0%,70%,2,500,12.1%,14.0%,60%,53.1%,54.6%,54.4%,52.0%,52.
26、7%,53.1%,52.7%,52.5%,2,000,12.0%,50%,10.0%,40%,1,500,6.1%,8.0%,30%,1,000,4.2%,5.1%,3.6%,6.0%,20%,4.0%,10%0%,5000,2.0%0.0%,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F,Source:Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,Source:China El
27、ectricity Council,Guotai Junan International.,Page 3 of 10,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,26December2012,Based on following 2013 electricity consumption growths assumptions:1)Tertiary industry and residential sector grow at 11.5%YoY in 2013(12.5%and 11.7%CAGRs for tertiary industry and residential sect
28、or in 2006-2011);2)Light industry electricityconsumption increase by 6.5%YoY in 2013(7.1%CAGR in 2006-2011)and 3)Primary industry electricity consumptionincrease 3.0%YoY(4.1%CAGR in 2006-2011),we estimate the secondary industry electricity consumption and totalelectricity consumption to increase 6.3
29、%and 7.5%YoY in 2013 respectively.Based on 7.5%total electricityconsumption growth,the total electricity generation and thermal electricity generation are expected to increase 7.5%and 7.9%YoY,respectively.,Figure-9:Secondary industry electricity consumption togrow 6.3%YoY in 2013,Figure-10:Total ele
30、ctricity consumption to grow 7.5%YoY in 2013,MMWh,Secondary Industry,YoY,MMWh,Total electricity consumption,YoY,4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000,13.4%,14.3%,16.0%,3.8%4.2%,16.0%,11.9%,4.0%,6.3%,18.0%16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%,6,0005,0004,0003,0002,000,13.5%2,469,14.2%2,825,14.8%3,257,3
31、,4275.2%,3,6436.0%,15.1%4,192,4,69311.7%,4,9505.5%,5,3207.5%,16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%,5000,2.0%0.0%,1,0000,2.0%0.0%,2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013FSource:China Electricity Council,Guotai Junan International.Figure-11:Thermal electricity generation still dominatesin Chin
32、a,2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013FSource:China Electricity Council,Guotai Junan International.Figure-12:Thermal electricity generation to increase7.9%YoY in 2013,MMWh,Total,Thermal,Hydro,Nuclear,Wind,16%,Total,Thermal,6,0005,000,4,207,4,713,4,970,5,342,14%12%,14.6%,11.7%,13.9%,4
33、,0003,000 2,756,3,209,3,405,3,651,10%8%,7.2%,7.9%,6%2,0004%,1,0000,2%0%,3.0%,2.6%,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,Source:National Bureau
34、 of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Page 4 of 10,2009A,2010A,2008A,2011A,2012F,2008A,2009A,2011A,2010A,2012F,2013F,2013F,1995A,1997A,2000A,2002A,2004A,2007A,2009A,1994A,1996A,1998A,1999A,2001A,2003A,2005A,2006A,2008A,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,26December2012,M
35、t,Mt,Raw coal consumption of electricity industry had been highly correlated to the thermal electricity generation.The unit raw coalconsumption by the electricity industry had been approximately 2.05t/MWh based on historical data.After further assumingthe raw coal consumption ratio of electricity in
36、dustry to maintain at 52%in 2012-13,we estimate that the raw coalconsumption in 2012-13 will reach 3.7 and 4.0 billion tons,respectively,up from approximately 3.5 billion tons in2011.,Figure-13:Raw coal consumption of electricity industryto reach approximately 2.1 billion tonsRaw coal consumption of
37、 electricity industry2,5002,081,Figure-14:Electricity industry raw coal consumptionratio assumed to maintain 52%in 2012-13Electricity industry raw coal consumption ratio100%90%,2,000,1,615,1,869,1,928,80%70%,1,500,1,365,1,461,60%,48.6%,49.4%,51.7%,53.0%,52.0%,52.0%,50%,1,0005000Source:Wind,Guotai Ju
38、nan International.,40%30%20%10%0%Source:Guotai Junan International.,(*):Estimated data for 2011AFigure-15:Raw coal consumption to reach 4 billion tons in 2013,4,500,Raw coal consumption,Raw coal consumption YoY,4,002,25.0%,4,000,3,526,3,708,20.0%,3,5003,0002,500,2,167,2,392,2,586,2,811,2,958,3,122,1
39、5.0%10.0%,2,000,1,692,1,936,5.0%,1,500,1,285 1,377,1,447 1,392,1,295 1,264 1,320 1,350,1,416,0.0%1,000,5000Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.(*):Estimated data for 2011ASee the last page for disclaimer,-5.0%-10.0%Page 5 of 10,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A
40、,2003A,2004A,2005A,2004A,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2003A,2005A,2012F,1995A,1997A,2000A,2002A,2005A,2007A,2010A,1992A,1993A,1994A,1996A,1998A,1999A,2001A,2003A,2004A,2006A,2008A,2009A,2011A,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,2013F,2012F,2013F,26December2012,Mt,Coal Production Capacity Outlook for
41、2013FAI for coal mining sector soared for the last decade.Coal mining FAI increased from RMB44 billion to RMB491 billionduring 2003 to 2011,representing a CAGR of 35.3%.For the first 11 months in 2012,the coal mining FAI still increased by 8.7%YoY to RMB465.5 billion,and we expect it to reach RMB521
42、 billion for 2012,up 6.1%YoY.As a result,the new raw coalcapacity increased from 74Mt/a in 2003 to 413Mt/a in 2011,representing a CAGR of 23.9%.The downturn of Chinese coal market is expected to impact the FAI growth of coal mining sector in 2013,and weexpect it to decline by 15%to RMB443 billion in
43、 2013 due to the decreased return profile of coal mining investment.Assuming a lag of one-year from FAI to new capacity,we estimate the new raw coal capacity to peak at 467Mt/a in2012 followed by 434Mt/a in 2013,amounting to approximately 900Mt/a for the period.,Figure-16:Coal mining FAI to peak in
44、2012,Figure-17:New raw coal capacity to amount 900Mt/aduring 2012-13,RMB Bn,Coal mining FAI,Coal Mining FAI YoY,Mt/a,New raw coal capacity,New raw coal capacity YoY,600500,491,521,443,70.0%60.0%50.0%,500450400,387,413,467,434,140.0%120.0%100.0%,400,378,40.0%,350,320,80.0%,300200100,44,70,116,146,180
45、,240,306,30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%,30025020015010050,74,154,184,226,270,231,60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%,0,-20.0%,0,-40.0%,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.,Figure-18:Raw coal production vo
46、lume almost doubled from 2003 to 2011,4,000,Raw coal production,Raw coal Production YoY,3,520,20.0%,3,5003,0002,500,2,123,2,350,2,529,2,692,2,802,2,973,3,235,15.0%10.0%,2,000,1,835,5.0%,1,500,1,116 1,151,1,240,1,361 1,397 1,388 1,332 1,364 1,384,1,472 1,550,0.0%,1,000,5000Source:National Bureau of S
47、tatistics of China,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,-5.0%-10.0%Page 6 of 10,2004A,2005A,2007A,2008A,2010A,2011A,2006A,2009A,2012F,2006A,2007A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2008A,2013F,2012F,2013F,SectorReport,CoalSector煤炭行业,26December2012,to,Thermal Coal Price Outlook for 2013Based on
48、 our estimation,the raw coal consumption increases in 2012-13 are approximately 476Mt/a,while the newraw coal capacity in the same period is estimated to amount to approximately 900Mt/a,about 1.9x of theconsumption increase.During 2009 and 2010,the new raw coal capacity was also significantly above
49、the raw coalconsumption increase,and the QHD coal price had been relatively weak compared with the peak in 2008.Nevertheless,weagree that the excess new raw coal capacity is not the only important factor that impacts the coal price(other important factorsinclude:1)railway transportation capacity,2)s
50、afety issues of coal mines,3)production volume control by local governments,4)overseas coal import volume),but we still think it is the dominating factor that would suppress coal price in 2013.Based on the excess supply capacity of raw coal in 2012 and 2013,we expect that the QHD 5,500 Kcal thermal
