《ASEAN_PERSPECTIVES：THE_CHINA_CHANNEL-2013-01-18.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ASEAN_PERSPECTIVES：THE_CHINA_CHANNEL-2013-01-18.ppt（20页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、,EconomicsEmerging AsiaASEAN PerspectivesThe China channel18 January 2013Leif EskesenEconomistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branch,abcGlobal Research Trade between the ASEAN-5 and Chinahas exploded,and it flows both ways Cross-border investments are also onthe rise,
2、and tourists are flying in This interdependence will grow,and thebenefits will be enjoyed by allTwo-way flows,two-way benefitsChinas continued expansion has brought great benefits tothe ASEAN-5(Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailandand Vietnam)as well as to their giant neighbour.This two-way winnin
3、g engagement will get better still as theseeconomies continue to charge ahead.Trade in goods between ASEAN-5 and China has enjoyed afive-fold rise as a share of GDP over the past 15 years,andnow totals more than USD200bn a year.Its flowing in bothdirections,and contrary to popular belief three of th
4、eASEAN-5 Indonesia,Thailand,and Vietnam actuallyhave trade deficits with China.The goods traded are alsonow higher value-added in nature.Although China is a relatively small investor in the fivecompared with Singapore and Japan,investment flows haverisen significantly too,with a promise of more to c
5、ome.So far only Malaysia has made much of an impact in theother direction.Chinese tourist visits to the five countries more than doubledover the past five years.Its not just the headcount.Chinesevisitors spend more in Thailand,for example,than Japanese,Americans and Germans together.However,only Tha
6、ilandand Vietnam run a tourist surplus with China as more and,+65 6658 8962,.sg,more ASEAN-5 holiday-makers head north.These trade,investment,and tourist flows between the,View HSBC Global Research at:http:/Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai BankingCorporation Limited Singapore BranchMICA(P)
7、038/04/2012MICA(P)063/04/2012MICA(P)206/01/2012Disclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix,and with theDisclaimer,which forms part of it,ASEAN-5 and China will increase in coming years as theireconomies continue to climb
8、 the global economic ladder andproduction bases shift around regionally.Benefits will flow inboth directions,but a significant rebalancing of growth inChina could swing the relationship in favour of the ASEAN-5as Chinese consumerism reaches new highs in coming years.,40,30,20,10,0,EconomicsEmerging
9、Asia18 January 2013Together we trade The Asean-5 countries are trading more with China,but contraryto common assumptions,three are doing so at a deficit Exports to China are mostly intermediaries and capital goods,withrelatively few consumption goods Imports from China are mostly machinery and elect
10、ricalequipment,but textiles also command a big share,abc,Two-way tradeChinas rise on the global economic stage shouldnot distract us from whats going on closer tohome.Not only has their big neighbour broughteconomic benefits to other Asian countries,Chinahas also benefitted from their growing econom
11、icimportance and thirst for imports.Trade flows between China and the ASEAN-5,for example,have risen to more than USD200bnannually.This is thanks to these countries owneconomic rise,Chinas growing role as a globalassembly plant,and further trade integration,including through trade agreements such as
12、 theChina-ASEAN Free Trade Area.Between 1995 and today,total trade of goodsbetween China and Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam has risenmore than fivefold as a share of GDP,fromaround 2%to 11%.Vietnam has done best during this period trade with China has risenalmost nine times as a
13、 share of GDP(Chart 1).China is also a much bigger trading partner forVietnam than it is for the other countries,withtotal goods trade between the two countries wortharound 29%of Vietnams GDP.2,Chart 1.China has become a big trading partnerGoods trade with China(%of GDP)1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
14、 2007 2009 2011Indonesia Malay sia PhilippinesThailand VietnamSource:CEIC,HSBC estimatesHowever,trade has also risen notably for theother countries since 1995,ranging from fourtimes as a share of GDP for Indonesia to seventimes for Thailand.Contrary to popular belief,however,the rising tradeinterdep
15、endence has not just been driven by a jumpin ASEAN-5 exports to China(Charts 2-7).TheASEAN-5 countries have also significantly rampedup their imports of Chinese produced goods.,60,50,40,30,20,10,25,20,15,10,5,60,50,40,30,20,10,25,20,15,10,5,EconomicsEmerging Asia18 January 2013Chart 2.Exports to Chi
16、na have risen ever faster Exports of goods to China(Annual percentage change)0,Chart 3.which has lifted Chinas share of total exportsChina export share(%of total exports)0,abc,1995-99,2000-05,2006-11,2010-11,2000,2005,2011,IndonesiaThailand,Malay siaVietnam,Philippines,IndonesiaThailand,Malay siaVie
17、tnam,Philippines,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChart 4.Imports from China have also been firm Imports of goods from China(Annual percentage change)0,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChart 5.and this has lifted the import share significantlyI mport share(Percent of total import)0,1995-99Indonesia,2000-05Malay s
18、ia,2006-11Philippines,2010-11,2000Indonesia,2005Malay sia,2011Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,Thailand,Vietnam,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChart 6.Some countries are running trade deficits with China,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChart 7.and Vietnams deficit is particularly large,1050-5-10-15,Trade balance(U
19、S$billion),50-5-10-15,Trade balance(%of GDP),2000IndonesiaThailand,2005Malay siaVietnam,2011Philippines,2000IndonesiaThailand,2005Malay siaVietnam,2011Philippines,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimates,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimates,3,EconomicsEmerging Asia18 January 2013As Charts 6 and 7 show,Indonesia,Thailand an
20、d,Table 1.Top 3 exports to China in 1995,abc,Vietnam have trade deficits vis-vis China.In,No.1 export,No.2 export,No.3 export,Vietnams case this is quite substantial at close to11%of GDP.Malaysia,on the other hand,has beenrunning a trade surplus with China since 2009.The types of goods flowing to an
21、d from Chinadiffer significantly across the ASEAN-5 countries.,IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam,MineralsAnimal/veggieoil/fatMineralsVegetablesMinerals,Wood articlesWood articlesVegetablesPrepared foodVegetables,Pulp ofwood/paperMachinery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equipPlastic/r
22、ubberPlastic/rubber,In the case of Indonesia,minerals account for more,Source:CEIC,than 50%of exports to China and is their clearNo.1 export to China(Tables 1-2 and Charts 8-9).,Table 2.Top 3 exports to China todayNo.1 export No.2 export,No.3 export,The exports of the other four countries are morehe
23、avily concentrated on machinery and electricalequipment,supplying Chinese assembly lines aspart of the global supply chain.For example,machinery and electrical equipmentaccount for two-thirds of Malaysias exports to,IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam,MineralsMachinery/electrical equipMachin
24、ery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equip,Animal/veggie oil/fatMineralsMineralsPlastic/rubberMinerals,Plastic/rubberPlastic/rubberBase metalsChemicalsVegetables,China whereas minerals,which are the second-most important export,account for just 10%.The goods exported fr
25、om ASEAN-5 to Chinatoday,however,differ a lot from the low added-value products shipped north 15-20 years ago.Back then,Indonesia exported wood articles,pulps of wood and paper in addition to its mineralproducts.In Malaysias case,exports to Chinaprimarily consisted of animal and vegetable oilsas wel
26、l as wood products.Thailand mostlyshipped food products,while Vietnam primarilyexported minerals and vegetables.Whats also interesting is that ASEAN-5 exportstoday are much more concentrated on their No.1item than they were in 1995 as globalisation hasencouraged them to concentrate on their comparat
27、iveadvantages.The vertical integration of trade andChinas role as a global assembly hub has alsocontributed to the increased specialization.4,Source:CEICLooking at how ASEAN-5 exports to China haveevolved across broader categories of use(Charts10-13),we can see how the emergence of Chinaas an assemb
28、ly hub for global electronics and otherfinal products has meant a significant rise in theshare of intermediates exported to China.The gainwas most significant for Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand,with Vietnam the notable exception.Investment led growth in China also meant thatASEAN-5 exports of
29、 capital goods gained inprominence across the board,with Thailandexperiencing the biggest jump in Chinas exportshare.However,exports of consumer goods toChina have not risen as significantly,and Chinasshare on this front is generally quite lowcompared with that of the big consumer marketsin the West
30、.,Indonesia,Indonesia,Malaysia,Malaysia,Philippines,Philippines,Thailand,Thailand,Vietnam,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,Vietnam,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,100,80,60,
31、40,20,0,100,80,60,40,20,0,20,15,20,15,10,8,60,50,EconomicsEmerging Asia18 January 2013Chart 8.Top 3 exports were more diversified in the 1990sExport share:1995 top 3 China exports(%of total exports to China),Chart 9.In the 2000s exports became more specialisedExport share:2012 top 3 China exports(%o
32、f total exports to China),abc,#1 ex port,#2 ex port,#3 ex port,#1 ex port,#2 ex port,#3 ex port,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChart 10.Chinas assembly lines craved intermediatesChinas share of intermediate exports(%of total exports of intermediates)1998-2000 2007-20091050Source:IMFChart 12.Consumer good
33、s exports have risen Chinas share of consumer exports(%of total consumer goods exports)1998-2000 2007-20096420Source:IMF,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChart 11.Investment in China lifted capital goods exportsChinas share of capital goods exports(%of total capital goods exports)1998-2000 2007-20091050Sou
34、rce:IMFChart 13.but remain low compared with Western marketsShares of consumer goods exports(%of total consumer goods exports)China Japan Euro area USA403020100Source:IMF,5,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,80,80,EconomicsEmerging Asia18
35、January 2013Table 3.Top 3 imports from China in 1995,Imports from China have also gone through an,abc,No.1 import,No.2 import,No.3 import,evolution,beyond simply increasing in leaps and,IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippines,Machinery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equipPrepared foodstuff,Base metalsBas
36、e metalsMachinery/electrical equip,ChemicalsChemicalsBase metals,bounds(Tables 3-4 and Charts 14-15).In the mid-1990s,the Top 3 imports from China weretypically machinery and electrical equipment,base metals,and chemicals.In the Philippines,ThailandVietnamSource:CEIC,Base metals Machinery/electrical
37、 equipTransport equip Machinery/electrical equip,ChemicalsMinerals,food products were also a key import from China,and Vietnam imported transport equipment suchas aircraft and motor vehicles.,Machinery and electrical equipment as well as,Table 4.Top 3 imports from China today,base metals continue to
38、 dominate imports from,No.1 import,No.2 import,No.3 import,China today.However,textiles have become a big,IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam,Machinery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equipMachinery/electrical equipMachinery/,TextilesTextilesTextilesBase metals
39、Textiles,Base metalsBase metalsBase metalsChemicalsBase metals,import too,generally bumping chemicals off theTop 3 list.As with exports,imports haveincreasingly been concentrated on the Top 1 itemfor all five economies,again an indication of thetendency towards more specialisation based oncomparativ
40、e advantages.,electrical equipSource:CEIC,Chart 14.Top three imports were more diversified in the 1990sI mport share:1995 top 3 China imports(%of total imports from China)6040200,Chart 15.In the 2000s imports became more specializedI mport share:2012 top 3 China imports(%of total imports from China)
41、6040200,#1 import,#2 import,#3 import,#1 import,#2 import,#3 import,6,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimates,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimates,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam,1500,1000,500,EconomicsEmerging Asia18 January 2013Investing in the future Investment flows between China and ASEAN-5,while rela
42、tivelysmall,are becoming more important The direction is primarily from China to ASEAN-5,but most ofChinas investment goes elsewhere Japan and Singapore are still the biggest investors to the five,abc,Investment flows on the riseCross-border investments between ASEAN-5 andChina have increased consid
43、erably over the pastdecade,especially the past few years.,Chart 16.China has invested around USD4bn since 2008Cumlative FDI since 2008(US$million),This has brought higher employment,risingincomes,and,in some cases,knowledge/technological transfers to the countries receivingthe investments.The invest
44、ing countries havebenefitted from tapping into the strong domesticgrowth stories in the host country and increasing,0-500-1000-1500,FDI in ChinaFDI by China,the return on capital by taking advantage of host-country comparative advantages such as cheaplabour,resource wealth,etc.China has generally be
45、en more active investing inASEAN-5,rather than the other way around;thenotable exception being Malaysia(Chart 16).Cumulatively,China has ploughed more thanUSD4bn in FDI into the ASEAN-5 economiessince 2008,outstripping the USD2.5bn flowing inthe other direction.The main beneficiaries of Chinese FDI
46、have beenIndonesia,Thailand,and Vietnam,which accountfor around 75%of Chinas FDI into the ASEAN-,Source:CEIC,HSBC estimatesChinas outward FDIs have generallyconcentrated on resources,manufacturing(metalsand mineral products),wholesale&retailservices,banking&insurance,and leasing&commercial business.
47、These are also typically the sectors in whichChina has invested across the ASEAN-5economies,although Indonesia has receivedproportionately more in resource industries,Vietnam and the Philippines in labour-intensivemanufacturing,Thailand in agriculture,andMalaysia in secondary and tertiary industries
48、.,5 since 2008.7,2.0%,Island,EconomicsEmerging Asia18 January 2013Chart 17.Chinas FDI in Thailand,by sector(2006-11),Chart 18.2011 FDI inflows to China in 2011,by sector,abc,Chemicals13%,Services14%,Agriculture28%,Transp.storage/3%,Rest15%,Manuf.,Electric/electronics4%Metalproducts/machinery20%,Mine
49、rals17%LightIndustries/textiles4%,Leasing/comm.7%Wholesale/retail7%,Real estate23%,45%,Source:Thailand Board of InvestmentThe distribution of investments received by Thailandserves as a good example of the sectors gettingChinese investors attention(Chart 17).Between2006 and 2011,the agricultural and
50、 metal products/machinery sectors were the biggest beneficiaries.However,minerals and chemical products werenot far behind,nor was the services sector.Despite the pickup in FDI flows over the past fewyears,China is a relatively small investor in theASEAN-5 economies(Charts 20-25,next page).Itsshare
