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1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaStrategy,PeriodicalMade in China,Date3 January 2013Michael Tong,CFAJun Ma,Ph.D,Property:Price hikes more modest,Chief Economist Research Analyst(+852)2203 8308(+852)2203 6167,than reported;policy risk remain lowKEY POINTSChina Prop Weekly-Volume continued its s
2、trong momentum in the 4thweek of Dec(Jason Ching),Lin Li,Ph.DStrategist(+852)2203,China Property-Affordability continues to improve(Tony Tsang),Daily Market Statistics,02/01/2013,China Property-Inventory situations continue to improve(Tony TsangTHEME OF THE DAYChina Property-Actual price hikes more
3、modest than reported;policy riskremains low(Jason Ching)Headlines on developers hiking prices have sparked concerns of increasingpolicy risk.We have explicitly visited key cities and found that the situation has,PerformanceHSIH-shareA300VolumeHSIH-shareA300,Price23,31211,8982,523Price2,1292,5078,200
4、,1D%chg2.83.90.01D%chg67.869.40.0,1M%chg5.510.715.21M%chg14.114.555.6,been exaggerated,with ASP increases limited to city-center projects and in the3-5%range.While we expect prices to rise in 2013 on falling new supply,thiswill be moderate and gradual,on the back of purchase restrictions,mortgageres
5、trictions and restrictive lending towards developers.Moreover,as largedevelopers have a much bigger market share now and tend to be more,IndexesHSIEPSgPERPBR,CY20118.9%12.61.6,14/12/2012CY2012 CY20134.9%6.9%12.0 11.21.5 1.3,sensible in their pricing strategies,the excessive price increase witnessed
6、in,HSCEI,CY2011,CY2012,CY2013,2H09 is unlikely to be repeated.Thus,policy risk ahead is still low,in our view.(Jason Ching 852 2203 6205)http:/pull.db-,EPSgPERPBRMSCI HK,15.3%0.3%8.4 9.31.4 1.4CY2011 CY2012,3.9%9.01.3CY2013,EPSg,13.5%,-0.2%,9.1%,Asia Data Flash-China PMI:steady recovery continues(Ju
7、n Ma)Chinas official manufacturing PMI remained steady in December at 50.6.,PERPBRMSCI China,14.0 17.31.1 1.4CY2011 CY2012,15.91.3CY2013,Although slightly below the market consensus of 51.0,we still view this data,EPSg,13.4%,0.9%,8.8%,point positive as it reconfirmed the modest expansion seen in the
8、 past fewmonths and reported by HSBC PMI.(Jun Ma 852 2203 8308)http:/pull.db-,PER 9.5 11.0 10.1PBR 1.5 1.6 1.4Data for 2011 are calculated using members,weights and prices fromthe 31st of December of that yearDB Economic forecasts,China Prop Weekly-Strong sales momentum continues well into the year-
9、end,Hong KongGDP(%),2012F1.3,2013F 2014F2.5 4.5,(Jason Ching)Total volume in the 40 major cities was up 11.8%WoW to 8.014msqm during,Merch.Exp.(%)CPI(%),4.44.0,4.12.5,8.01.7,the week of 24-30 December,a return to the high levels last seen in earlyNovember.Despite the approach of the year-end,the str
10、ong momentum insales volume continued on the back of a better outlook in both the economyand the property market.Moreover,affordability and inventory levelscontinued to improve.Overall,four-week volume was up 81%YoY and 4%,China 2012FGDP(%)7.7Merch.Exp.(%)7.0CPI(%)2.6FX rate(eop)CNY/USD 6.22Source:D
11、eutsche Bank AG estimates,2013F 2014F8.2 8.910.0 15.03.0 3.56.06 5.91,MoM,and 5%higher than the October 2010 peak.(Jason Ching 852 22036205)http:/pull.db-Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the
12、 firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,3 January 2013Made in ChinaDB EQ
13、UITY RESEARCHChina Prop Weekly-Volume continued its strong momentum in the 4th week of Dec(Jason Ching)Total volume in the 40 major cities was up 8.7%WoW to 7.126msqm during the weekof 17-23 December and back to the high levels last seen at end-November.Despitethere being only one more week to go un
14、til year-end,the marked rebound in volume iswell within our expectations of a better outlook in both the economy and the propertymarket.Some buyers are reportedly buying before the year-end in anticipation of ASPincreases in 2013.Overall,4-week volume up 82%YoY and-2%MoM,and down 7%from October 2010
15、 peak.(Jason Ching 852 2203 6205)http:/pull.db-Property-Affordability continues to improve(Tony Tsang)Chinas national housing affordability,as measured by monthly mortgage burden,hasimproved from the latest peak in April 2011 to approximately 39.9%in November 2012,below the historical average of 46.
16、4%since January 2005.On a national average,housing affordability improves as disposable incomes continue to grow.In our view,investors should focus on the stable and resilient growth of household income in China,which has been growing at a faster pace than home prices in the last two years.(TonyTsan
17、g 852 2203 6256)http:/pull.db-Property-Inventory situations continue to improve(Tony Tsang)For the 23 key cities we monitor,the average number of months required to clear theavailable-for-sale supply(which includes completed but unsold inventory and unsoldproperties under construction with pre-sale
18、permits)has continued to decrease from apeak of 21.5 months in February 2012 to 10.4 months in November 2012,and isreaching the eight-month level from 2009 and 2010(when new supply in thecommodity residential market was tight and led to faster property price increases).(Tony Tsang 852 2203 6256)http
19、:/pull.db-Property-December sales stable as developers have achieved targets(TonyTsang)We have surveyed 19 key listed developers on their contracted sales in December MTD-most developers expect sales to be stable or slightly down.Among the 19,two expecta slightly positive MoM trend,seven expect slow
20、er sales as they have achieved theirannual targets already,and the other 10 developers see stable sales as year-endapproaches.With developers achieving a high percentage of their full-year sales targetsand Northern China entering its low season in property sales,we believe property salesin December
21、2012 are unlikely to show a significant pick-up.(Tony Tsang 852 22036256)http:/pull.db-Healthcare-China Edge P101:Monthly data tracker,December 2012(Jack Hu)Recent data suggest:1)government healthcare spending increased 2%YoY inNovember;2)patient monitor and ultrasound exports from Shenzhen customsr
22、emained flat in November;3)the 6-APA price and 7-ACA price were slightly lower thanin November;and 4)TCM raw material pricing rebounded slightly after a sharp declineover the past few months due to de-stocking.We advise investors to exercise cautionwhen interpreting these data points.(Jack Hu 852 22
23、03 6208)http:/pull.db-Edge P102-Growth momentum continues for hospital patient visits in October(Jack Hu)In October 2012,inpatient/outpatient volume growth rates were 17%/11%YoY,respectively,vs.7%/13%in October 2011 and 18%/10%in September 2012.On a YTD-October basis,inpatient/outpatient volume grow
24、th rates were 18%/11%,respectively,vs.4%/11%YoY for YTD-October 2011 and 8%/7.4%YoY for FY2011.On a 3Q12 basis,inpatient/outpatient volume growth rates were 18%/10%,vs.18%/12%in 2Q12 and,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,3 January 2013Made in China3%/11%in 3Q11,respectively.We strongly believe that
25、demand growth will translateinto drug/medical consumable sales,which is positive for manufacturers,such asShineway(2877.HK)and Sino Biopharma(1177.HK).(Jack Hu 852 2203 6208)http:/pull.db-Dec beats;Smoking ban a smooth transition on Day 1(Karen Tang)Gaming revenue set a new high of MOP28.2bn in Dec(
26、+20%yoy),beating Octs record(MOP27.7bn).Both VIP and mass markets were stronger than expected,and junketsconfirmed that VIPs are returning.Smoking ban became effective on Jan 1,and allcasinos we visited have set up clear signs.For example,we saw in Galaxy Macau thatsmoking is allowed on all the high
27、-limit tables in the Pavilion areas,while for theremaining mass floor,all tables on the left side are for non-smoking(right side forsmoking).While the smoking tables look slightly busier(80%occupied at 5pm),thenon-smoking tables are also reasonably busy(60%occupied).We expect limited impactfrom this
28、 rule.(Karen Tang 852 2203 6141)http:/pull.db-Dec HK property marketing takeaways(Jason Ching)We have just finished our China/HK property marketing trips in Korea,Hong Kong,Singapore,Shanghai and Beijing and have gathered good feedbacks from investors.Overall,investors are getting more positive on C
29、hina property given strong demand andstable policy environments,while remained cautious on HK property given rising policyoverhang and weak sales volume.(Jason Ching 852 2203 6205)http:/pull.db-December China property marketing takeaways(Jason Ching)We have just finished our China/HK property market
30、ing trips in Korea,Hong Kong,Singapore,Shanghai and Beijing and have gathered good feedbacks from investors.Overall,investors are getting more positive on China property given strong demand andstable policy environments,while remained cautious on HK property given rising policyoverhang and weak sale
31、s volume.(Jason Ching 852 2203 6205)http:/pull.db-Chongqing property tour takeaways(Jason Ching)We spent 2 days in Chongqing,visiting various residential and commercial projects ofdevelopers like COLI,C C Land,Longfor,Sunac,CR Land,Wharf,Hua Yu and Xie Xin.Overall,as in most other Tier-1/2 cities,re
32、sidential sales in Chongqing have continuedto pick up at a solid pace,while ASPs have shown some moderate increases.Also,wesee good traffic flows/consumer activities in key shopping areas like Guan Yin Qiao andJie Feng Bei.(Jason Ching 852 2203 6205)http:/pull.db-HK Prop:Nov decline in mortgage appl
33、ication reflects policy impact(JasonChing)According to Hong Kong Monetary Authoritys(HKMA)newly released November 2012mortgage statistics,new mortgage drawdown in November rose for fourth consecutivemonth to HK$21.16bn(+11.2%MoM).However,new mortgage applications dropped18.9%YoY.Meanwhile,new mortga
34、ge approved in November 2012 was down by 2.3%MoM to HK$24.15bn.A key reason for the decline was attributable to the decrease innew mortgages approved in secondary transactions following the extension of SpecialStamp Duty(SSD)and introduction of Buyer Stamp Duty(BSD)on 26 October,whichdropped 13.58%M
35、oM.However,new mortgage approved for primary property unittransactions rose 42.37%MoM to HK$5.614bn on the back of the numerous primarylaunches over the period.(Jason Ching 852 2203 6205)http:/pull.db-New household registration to stimulate investment opportunity(Tony Tsang)JRJ reported that Harbin
36、and Nanning municipal governments have recently announcednew measures and opinions on household registration.Specifically,Harbin governmentissued an opinion draft,stating that the city plans to launch a new householdregistration system to combine both urban and rural before 2015,replacing the curren
37、thousehold registration system.Meanwhile,Nanning also issued the measures for,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 3,3 January 2013Made in Chinaimplementation of further reforms of household registration system,stating that thecity will no longer separate its household into urban and rural,and that one c
38、ouldbecome a registered household if(1)buy a flat in the city,(2)work in the city for 4years,and(3)fulfilled certain investment amount.JRJ said this latest attempts ofhousehold registration reform in 2 of Chinas provincial city clearly indicated thegovernments determination to facilitate the next st
39、age of urbanization.(Tony Tsang 852 2203 6256)http:/pull.db-MLR to implement multiple measures to tackle Land Kings(Tony Tsang)JRJ reported from a recent press conference held by Liao Yonglin,head of the LandUse Management Bureau in the Ministry of Land and Resources(MLR),who had statedthat the MLR
40、will increase efforts on policy guidance and strengths,closely monitor andapply tightening controls where necessary,to stabilize the land market by ensuringadequate supply of land,and to dampen any abnormal price volatilities in land prices.All provinces will be required to implement various measure
41、s such as carving-out oflarger land lots,joint-bidding,applying additional bidding terms and increase paymentdifficulties,to avoid the emergence of land kings.At the same time,the ministry willimplement a system of closely monitoring large developers actions,and to initiateinvestigation on the recen
42、t land king transaction ie.Nanjing Xiaguang Area land lot#2,won by MCC Real Estate Group,which is 2012s most expensive land lot by totalvalue in China.(Tony Tsang 852 2203 6256)http:/pull.db-Materials-2012 cement price recap(Johnson Wan)After a disappointing 1H12,cement prices staged a mild rebound
43、in end Aug followinga recovery in infrastructure projects and a new round of production halts.However,therebound in cement prices was short-lived as cold weather and heavy rainfall reversedthe upward trajectory.Nationwide inventories as of Dec 28,2012 are currently high at72%of storage capacity and
44、the downtrend in cement prices is expected to continueover the next two months.Overall,national cement ASPs(low grade and high grade)declined from an average of RMB387/t to RMB336/t,down 13.3%YoY.This is a five-year low in cement prices,back to levels seen in 2008.High grade cement ASPs fellfrom RMB
45、407/t to RMB351/t,down 13.8%YoY while low grade cement ASPs fell fromRMB367/t to RMB321/t,down 12.6%YoY.(Johnson Wan 852 2203 6163)http:/pull.db-&Mining-China 2013 export tax cut on coke and copper(James Kan)The Finance Ministry posted on its website on Monday new export taxes for metalproducts in 2
46、013.Among the amendments,China will remove 40%export tax onmetallurgical coke and also abolish export tax for super high grade copper cathode withpurity over 99.9999%from its current 5%level.(James Kan 852 2203 6146)http:/pull.db-China IPPs:a Christmas gift received from the government(Michael Tong)
47、On Dec 25,State Council in China announced the Guideline of deepening the thermalcoal market reform which states the reimplementation of fuel cost tariff pass-throughmechanism”since it was lastly announced in 2004.key elements of the mechanisminclude 1)on-grid tariff adjustment will be trigged when
48、coal prices change over 5%over an 12-month period,2)90%of IPPs fuel cost change can be passed-throughthrough tariff adjustment(vs.70%previously stipulated).Although power tariff reformis not totally unexpected,we view the time of announcement is earlier than what wehave expected as of sometime in 20
49、13.This is a key positive to the sector in terms ofrectifying IPPs earnings vulnerability to coal price volatility,which bodes well for sectorvaluation multiple expansions.Meanwhile,we see the convergence of contract andspot coal supply as well-expected.Reiterate our Buy call on all the five HK-list
50、ed IPPs.(Michael Tong 852 2203 6167)http:/pull.db-New rules on sub-debt:LT positive for brokers,but limited ST impact(JudyZhang)CSRC has announced the new rules for sub-debt issuance by brokers and lowered theentry barriers to trade the sub-debt.Key measures include:1)allowing brokers to issue,Page
