CONSUMER_&_MEDIA：A_BUYER'S_GUIDE-2013-01-14.ppt

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1、Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaConsumer,PeriodicalConsumer&Media,Date14 January 2013Anne LingLydia Ling,A buyers guideAgricultural commodity pricesRaw ingredients:global and PRC prices were mixed week-on-weekPRC price:small week-on-week changeGlobal prices:mixed price change wowC

2、ompany newsChow Tai Fook 3QFY13 operational updates(Anne Ling)LOccitane International Forever young;initiating with Buy(AnneLing)SA SA International Respectable 3Q performance,althoughDecember slowed(Anne Ling)C.P.Lotus closes one store in BeijingBesunyen Disposal of shares by controlling shareholde

3、rYashili Proposed establishment of manufacturing facility in NewZealand,Research Analyst Research Analyst(+852)2203 6177(+852)2203 Top picksHengan Intl.(1044.HK),HKD74.30Tsingtao Brewery(0168.HK),HKD46.45Belle Intl Holding(1880.HK),HKD16.92Focus Media(FMCN.OQ),USD25.94Companies FeaturedEsprit Holdin

4、gs Ltd(0330.HK),HKD11.26 Hold2012A 2013E 2014EP/E(x)107.5 28.6EV/EBITDA(x)20.0 46.3 9.8Price/book(x)0.8 1.1 1.1Li&Fung(0494.HK),HKD13.88 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)29.1 22.7 15.4EV/EBITDA(x)20.1 16.4 11.5,Tsui Wah Holdings Limited Monetizing the Hong Kong style;,Price/book(x),4.2,3.0,2.8,initiating w

5、ith Buy(Lydia Ling)Maoye Completes issue of the first tranche of the RMB800m NotesUni-President 4Q12 revenue missed on product line management¯o weakness(Joelian Tseng),Hengan Intl.(1044.HK),HKD74.30 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)30.4 26.0 20.7EV/EBITDA(x)23.7 18.6 14.8,Gudang Garam No surprises fro

6、m newly issued tobacco regulation,Price/book(x),7.8,7.1,6.2,(Reggy Susanto)Samsonite Grant of share options,China Mengniu Dairy(2319.HK),HKD23.75 Hold2011A 2012E 2013E,Li Ning Mr.Li Ning commented on channel revival plan and VivaChinas Shenyang projectYUM Brands,Inc.More bad news from China(Jason We

7、st),P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),22.811.92.3,23.210.32.7,18.77.62.4,Ajisen Grant of share optionsPCD Stores Preliminary discussions on potential acquisition are stillgoing onLuen Thai Acquisition of Ocean Sky GlobalBoshiwa Update on suspension of tradingCP All Positioned for Growth(Chalinee Congm

8、uang)Marico Limited Option to own only a higher RoE business post-restructuring;Buy(Gaurav Bhatia)Tiffany&Co.Alert Holiday sales due on 10 JanuaryLi Ning Connected transactionLifestyle Disposal of Tianjin companySector newsChina F&B General rule for nutrition labels of pre-packed food takeseffectChi

9、na F&B Unilever sells peanut butter brand Sijibao for USD0.7bnChina F&B 2012 Dairy Products Satisfaction Index declines forShanghai consumers_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the fi

10、rm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer&Med

11、iaChina F&B Yum apologizes to the publicChina Catering South Beauty may go public within 2013China F&B Wuliangye pre-announces business growth in FY12China F&B China agricultural product prices continue to rise for the10th week,with vegetable prices climbing the highestChina F&B Perpetual Treasure r

12、educes shareholding in Beingmate toless than 5%of the issued share capitalChina Retail China to have over 4,000 shopping malls by end-2015China Retail Walmart closes store in ZhengzhouChina F&B Wong Lo Kat invests RMB3.6bn in Shandong productionbaseChina F&B China Investment Crop vying for stake in

13、Australian dairycompany Van Diemens LandChina Catering Per capita consumption of Shanghai cateringcompanies is RMB90 in 2012Asia Catering McDonalds SSSg stood at negative 8.6%in Decemberin JapanChina Retail will not initiate IPO before 2015China Retail Metro opened 64th Chinese store in QingdaoChina

14、 Retail M&S opens Chinese e-commerce siteAsia F&B Kirin to sell headquarters buildings to ease debt pressureChina F&B Chengde LuLu added new production capacity of 60,000tons/year to ease bottleneckChina F&B New national pesticide residue standard to becomeeffective from 1 MarchChina Retail Rural CE

15、 subsidy program sales RMB215bn in 2012China Consumer Shanxi 2012 social consumer goods retail value tohit RMB437.7bnChina F&B McDonalds raises prices in 2013China F&B Huishan Dairy launches infant formula milk powderHK Catering Restaurants raise menu pricesChina Retail Jusco to expand in China with

16、 new business modelChina Retail Suguo to launch 100 stores in HubeiChina Retail Supermarkets in Tianjin achieved 0.48%yoy salesincrease in 2012China F&B Hormel Foods agrees to buy Skippy business fromUnilever PLC for USD700mChina F&B Langjiu 2012 sales revenue reached Rmb11bnChina F&B Beingmate wins

17、 Chinese Well-known Trademark title,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer&MediaAgricultural commodity pricesRaw ingredients:global and PRC prices were mixed week-on-weekGlobal agricultural commodities prices changes were mixed wow:corn+1.7%,soybeanflat,sugar-1.3%,OJ+0.5%a

18、nd wood pulp declined 0-1%wow.Prices of both crude oiland aluminium(which are relevant to the inputs of consumer staples companies)were-1%wow.Fonterra milk powder auction prices rose by 2-4%(for WMP and SMP)vs.lastauction.PRC agricultural commodity price changes were also mixed wow:corn-0.3%,soybean

19、+0.8%,soybean oil(retail)-0.2%wow,live hog+1.0,pork+1.1%,fruits-0.1%and vegetables+7.6%.PRC price:small week-on-week changeGrains/edible oil.Corn price edged down 0.3%wow.Rice wholesale price rose0.6%wow.Wheat wholesale prices advanced 1.6%wow.Soybean pricesincreased 0.8%wow.Soybean oil wholesale pr

20、ices inched down 0.1%wowwhereas soybean oil retail price declined 0.2%wow.Milk/milk powder.Retail prices for milk,and baby formula(both domestic andforeign)milk powder inched up 0.1%wow.The retail price of yoghurt rose 0.3%wow.The adult milk powder remained flat wow.Meat.The wholesale prices for bee

21、f and mutton further rose by 0.8%wow and0.6%wow due to rising demands ahead of Chinese New Year.The retail price ofboth chicken and eggs advanced 0.2%wow.The pork wholesale price acceleratedclimbing 1.1%wow on increasing demands.Live hog price rose 1.0%wow thanksto strong winter pork demand.Piglet p

22、rice surged 3.1%wow on tight supply andrising demands on reduced feed costs in December and strong hog prices.The pig-to-feedstuff ratio surged 2.1%wow to 6.88 on higher growth of live hog ex-factoryprice.Vegetables/fruits.Vegetable prices further climbed 7.6%wow,primarily pushed upby severe weather

23、 conditions in certain areas.Fruit prices edged down 0.1%wow,mainly dragged down by price decline of apple and banana.,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 3,A A,4.5,4.0,3.5,3.0,2.5,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer&Media,Figure 1:PRC second-grade yellow corn price(wholesale)(Rmb/t)2,5002,2001,900,Figure 2

24、:PRC corn future price(Rmb/t)2,8002,5002,200,1,6001,3001,000,J-06O-06J-07A-08J-09O-09J-10A-11J-12O-12,1,9001,6001,3001,000,D-04O-05-06J-07A-08F-09D-09O-10-11J-12,Source:Zhengzhou Wholesale Grain marketFigure 3:PRC rice price(wholesale),Source:MOFCOM.Figure 4:PRC small-packed milled rice price(retail

25、),(Rmb/t)5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000,Japo nica RiceEarly Indica Rice,(Rmb/kg)7654321,1,500,J-06O-06 J-07 A-08 J-09O-09 J-10 A-11 J-12O-12,0A-03,A-05,A-07,A-09,A-11,Source:Zhengzhou Wholesale Grain marketFigure 5:PRC second-graded wheat price(wholesale)(Rmb/t)2,4002,200,Source:MOFCOMFigure 6:

26、PRC small-packed flour price(retail)(Rmb/t)5.55.0,2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000,J-06O-06J-07A-08J-09O-09J-10A-11J-12O-12,A-03A-04A-05A-06A-07A-08A-09A-10A-11A-12,Source:Zhengzhou Wholesale Grain MarketPage 4,Source:MOFCOM,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,5,M,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer&Media,Figure 7

27、:PRC live hog price(wholesale)(Rmb/kg)21191715131197,Figure 8:PRC piglet price(wholesale)(Rmb/kg)2520151050,A-05J-06O-06J-07A-08J-09O-09J-10A-11J-12O-12M-05J-06N-06S-07J-08M-09-10J-11N-11S-12,Source:eFeedlinkFigure 9:PRC pork price(wholesale),Source:eFeedlinkFigure 10:PRC pig to feedstuff ratio,(Rmb

28、/kg)3025201510,1086420,Hog/C orn Ratio,WoW,8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%,5A-03J-04 J-05M-06A-07M-08F-09J-10D-10N-11O-12Source:MOFCOMDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,J-09 M-0 S-09 J-10 M-1 S-10 J-11 M-S-11 J-12 M-S-129 0 11 12Source:NDRC,Page 5,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer&MediaFigure 11:PRC

29、agricultural commodity pricesAverage monthly price,Commodity prices,Unit,Date,Last price,WoW chg MoM chg,YoY chg Sep-12,Oct 2012,Nov 2012,Grains/edible oil,Corn(wholesale)Corn(futures)Rice-Early Indica(wholesale)Rice-Late Indica(wholesale)Rice-Japonica(wholesale)Soybean(wholesale)Soybean I(futures)S

30、oybean II(futures)Soybean oil(wholesale)Soybean oil(futures)Soybean oil(retail)White sugar(retail)White sugar(futures)Wheat(wholesale),Rmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/tRmb/kgRmb/tRmb/t,16-Dec-1204-Jan-1316-Dec-1216-Dec-1216-Dec-1216-Dec-1204-Jan-1304-Jan-1316-Dec-1204-Jan-1304-

31、Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-1316-Dec-12,2,2362,3303,8434,1644,2004,7284,5905,0099,5339,09012.410.75,6592,327,-0.3%-0.4%0.9%1.0%0.0%0.8%-0.6%2.4%-0.1%5.6%-0.2%0.0%-0.3%1.6%,1%-2%1%1%-1%2%-1%2%2%17%0%0%3%6%,2%4%5%4%7%18%13%8%-1%5%2%4%-12%10%,2,3672,4244,3343,8054,1184,5394,8154,91910,2149,59912.4110.65,7072

32、,197,2,2852,3164,3333,8024,1154,5574,7344,9179,9949,18512.4210.75,5952,218,2,2312,2613,8143,8144,1334,6134,5674,8689,4908,44612.4010.75,7732,245,Dairy,Milk(Retail)Yogurt(Retail)Foreign infant milk powder,Rmb/lRmb/kgRmb/kg,04-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-13,9.312.5200.9,0.1%0.3%0.1%,1%1%0%,5%8%5%,9.112.3199

33、.1,9.112.3199.7,9.212.3200.1,(Retail),Domestic infant milk powder,Rmb/kg,04-Jan-13,153.8,0.1%,0%,8%,152.3,152.7,153.0,(Retail),Adult milk powder(Retail),Rmb/kg,04-Jan-13,84.6,0.0%,0%,6%,84.0,84.0,84.0,Meat/eggs,Beef(wholesale)Chicken(retail)Eggs(retail)Mutton(wholesale)Farm price:Live hogsPigletsPor

34、k(wholesale)Pig to feedstuff ratio,Rmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kg,04-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-1302-Jan-1303-Jan-1304-Jan-1302-Jan-13,48.118.710.452.116.413.622.46.88,0.8%0.2%0.2%0.6%1.0%3.1%1.1%2.1%,3%0%2%1%8%12%4%6%,31%1%6%13%-6%0%-6%-7%,42.618.910.248.514.713.920.66.0,43.81

35、8.910.348.914.713.620.86.1,45.218.710.150.414.612.320.86.2,Vegetables/fruits,Apple(wholesale)Banana(wholesale)Celery(wholesale)Cucumber(wholesale)Garlic(wholesale)Ginger(wholesale)Lettuce(wholesale)Onion(wholesale),Rmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kgRmb/kg,04-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-13

36、04-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-1304-Jan-13,6.83.93.95.07.44.65.63.9,-2.3%-2.3%6.9%6.9%1.0%9.9%12.6%6.3%,-3%-3%21%34%3%18%39%20%,-4%-22%67%14%88%19%38%173%,7.04.03.42.37.03.73.72.5,7.14.13.02.27.13.62.92.6,7.04.12.83.07.03.73.12.9,Source:Deutsche Bank,MoC,MoA,Zhengzhou Grain Market,CEIC.,Page 6,Deutsche Ba

37、nk AG/Hong Kong,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer and 2)promising data fromChina,top energy consumer.Aluminium(-1%wow):Aluminium prices remained flat wow.,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 7,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer&MediaFigure 12:Global commodity prices:key inputs for consumer staples companiesA

38、verage monthly price,Commodity prices,Unit,Date,Last,WoW chg MoM,YoY chg Oct-12,Nov-12,Dec-12,Agriculture,price,chg,US cocoa(futures)1st mthUS coffee(futures)1st mthUS corn(spot)US corn(futures)1st mthUS orange juice(futures)1stmth,US$/tUS$/lbUS cents/bushelUS$/bushelUS$/lb,10-Jan-1310-Jan-1310-Jan-

39、1310-Jan-1310-Jan-13,2,2691.56997.01.1,0.6%2.2%1.7%1.4%0.5%,-7%11%-3%-2%-19%,12%-32%10%9%-39%,2,3971.67567.61.1,2,4761.57387.41.2,2,3771.47167.11.3,US soybean(spot),UScents/bushel,10-Jan-1,39313,0.0%,-5%,18%,1,529,1,436.0,1,446.7,US soybean(futures)1st mth US$/bushel,10-Jan-14.213,1.0%,-4%,18%,15.5,

40、14.6,14.5,Raw Sugar-ISA Daily Pricec/lbUS sugar 11(futures)1stmthMalaysia palm oil(spot)Malaysia palm oil(futures)1mthFonterra whole milk powder,UScents/lbUS$/lbRM/tRM/tUS$/t,10-Jan-19.01310-Jan-0.21310-Jan-2,2141310-Jan-2,295132-Jan-13 3,199,-1.3%-0.7%-0.7%-2.9%2%,2%2%10%12%1%,-17%-18%-31%-28%-10%,

41、20.30.202,2772,3543,294,19.20.192,2042,2973,314,19.30.192,0602,1773,159,price,Fonterra skimmed milk,US$/t,2-Jan-13 3,572,4%,6%,9%,3,317,3,246,3,391,powder price,Pulp(NBSK)Pulp(BHKP)Pulp(FOEXCUS),US/tUS/tUS/t,8-Jan-13 8298-Jan-13 6498-Jan-13 562,-1%0%0%,-3%0%-1%,-13%-24%-24%,774752635,789.6764.6644.3

42、,806.6774.7642.6,Others,AluminumCrude oil-Brent dated FOBPET resinChina raw milk pricePRC sugar,US$/tUS$/barrelUS$/tRMB/kgRmb/kg,7-Jan-13 2,02910-Jan-113131-Jan-13 1,4694-Jan-13 37-Jan-13 5,705,-1%-1%na0.3%0.7%,-4%3%7%1%0%,2%1%1%4%-9%,1,9781121,381.03.35,992,1,9431091,367.036,120,2,0941091,469.035,8

43、81,Source:Deutsche Bank,DataStream,Bloomberg Finance LP.,Page 8,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer and 2)SSSg of3-7%over the same period.Our HK$30.66 target price implies 26.2x CY13EPE at a slight premium to HK/China staples and global cosmetic companies,but we view this as j

44、ustified due to its faster growth.We initiate with Buy.Please refer to full report:http:/LingSA SA International Respectable 3Q performance,althoughDecember slowed(0178.HK,HKD 6.77,Hold)Sales slowdown in December 2012 on a mix of factorsSa Sa International reported an increase of 20.4%in group sales

45、 for 3QFY13.Retail sales in HK and Macau grew 20.6%and SSSg was 14.2%.The companysaid that the growth momentum of 1HFY13 continued in October andNovember 2012 with SSSg of 13.3%and 20.2%,respectively.However,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 9,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer and 3)rainyweather(the hum

46、idity in December is much higher than other months).Thesefactors significantly affected the companys sales in the first half of December(only 10%growth).However,the situation improved in the second half ofDecember with 23%sales growth.SSSg in the first week of January 2013 wasnot strong,tracking a s

47、imilar trend as in December 2012,affected by a late CNYvs.last year.China operations reached breakeven in November 2012The company said that its China business reached breakeven in November2012 and was able to cover the overhead cost.SSSg in November was 3.5%.Total of 264 stores as of end-December 2

48、012The company net added nine stores(five in HK&Macau,one in mainland,onein Singapore,and two in Malaysia)and net closed three counters in 3Q12.Ithad a total of 264 stores including 12 single-brand counters as of end-December 2012.Deutsche Bank commentThe set of results is satisfactory.The slowdown

49、in December is attributable tomany factors,and thus we may need to monitor the companys performancefor the next few months.The company is well managed but this has beenpriced in,and thus we maintain Hold.Please refer to full report:http:/Ling,Page 10,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,14 January 2013Consume

50、rConsumer initiating with Buy(1314.HK,HKD 2.72,Buy),Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 11,14 January 2013ConsumerConsumer initiating with BuyTsui Wah is the largest player in the fast-growing Cha Chaan Teng(or HK-stylecaf)segment in HK,with 3.2%market share.Thanks to its efficient andstandardized model