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1、1,气候变化对草地畜牧业的影响,中国农业大学 潘学标,中国适应气候变化项目会议,The impact of Climate Change on Pasture Husbandry in China,Pan XuebiaoChina Agricultural University,2,提纲 Outline,1 气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响 Impacts of Climate change(CC)on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry2 气候年际变化牧草生物量的影响 CC on grass biomass3 气候对牧草
2、物候期的影响与动态模拟 CC on pasture and grass phenological period 4 基于SPACSYS模型的牧草生育模拟与情景分析 CC on feed crop development and growth with SPACSYS model5 结论 Conclusion,3,1气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响 Impacts of Climate change(CC)on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry,总体上变暖变干,中东部降水减少 Warmer and dryer,lower
3、precipitation in middle east农牧交错中段西部南界南移 The border of farming-pastoral ecotone moves southwards,4,内蒙古1961-1990年T0积温分布图Distribution of accumulative degree day in Inner Mongolia1961-1990 T0,全区有气候变暖趋势,5,内蒙古1991-2005年T0积温分布图,全区有气候变暖趋势,内蒙古1991-2005年T0积温分布图Distribution of accumulative degree day in Inner
4、 Mongolia1991-2005 T0,6,内蒙古1961-1990年T0期间降水量分布图Distribution of precipitation during T0 in Inner Mongolia1961-1990,7,东部降水减少,干旱带东移,内蒙古1991-2005年T0期间降水量分布图Distribution of precipitation during T0 in Inner Mongolia1991-2005,8,内蒙古1961-1990年湿润系数分布图Distribution of Coefficient of Humidity in Inner Mongolia19
5、61-1990,9,全区中东部变干,西部有所缓解,内蒙古1991-2005年湿润系数分布图Distribution of Coefficient of Humidity in Inner Mongolia1991-2005,10,图3-7 1971-2000年北方农牧交错带边界移动情况,北方农牧交错带地区边界移动情况 The moving of border of farming-pastoral ecotone,图3-8 1976-2005年北方农牧交错带边界移动情况,该分析中以1961-1990年划定的边界为基准，分别讨论1971-2000年与1976-2005年北方农牧交错带的边界移动情
6、况。,11,2 气候年际变化对牧草生物量的影响 Impact of CC on pasture and grass biomass,12,野外考察结果:Field Survey over 3years样地草地生物量年际差异大Biomass was very different,XilinhotSonid ZuoqiDarhan Muminggan qi,biomass,13,3 气候对牧草物候期的影响与动态模拟 Impacts of CC on phenological period of grass and its simulation,14,额尔古纳羊草和贝加尔针茅的返青期和枯黄期的相关性
7、 correlation of the period of seedling establishment and the brown period in two species(China Leymus and Needlegrass),Date of Leymus beginning growth,Date of Needlegrass beginning growth,Needlegrass,Leymus,Date of grass scorch,15,巴雅尔吐胡硕地区羊草、冰草和萎陵菜1995-2007年返青期和枯黄期的变化趋势 Change of the period of seedl
8、ing establishment and the brown period from 1995 to 2007 in three grass species,China Leymus,Wheatgrass,Cinquefoil,the brown period,period of seedling establishment,16,察右后旗羊草和克氏针茅的物候期变化趋势 Change of the phenological period in two grass species,China Leymus Needlegrass,China Leymus Needlegrass,China L
9、eymus,China Leymus,Needlegrass,Needlegrass,Maturity date,Flowering date,seedling establishment,the brown period,17,镶黄旗冰草返青期与温度、开花期与和降水的相关关系 correlation of the period of seedling establishment and temperature in spring(a);correlation of the period of flowering and precipitation(b)of Wheatgrass at Xia
10、nghuang Qi,Spring Temperature,Precipitation in July,18,冷蒿、糙隐子草和芦苇物候期与气候因子相关性分析 Correlation analysis of climatic factor and phenological period in three grass species,*：P0.05*:P0.01,19,建立天然草地模型,可分别对羊草,针茅进行模拟Development Grass simulation model To simulate development of Leymus and needlgrass et al,20,牧
11、草物候阶段划分及其形态指标 Phenological stage index system,21,天然牧草物候期基本模型Phenological period model,22,即每天的发育时期指数等于前一天的发育速率与当天发育速率的和，当发育时期指数累加到DSI时，则表示生育阶段模拟完成，得到的该生育阶段的天数。此时，牧草即将进入下一个生育阶段。并以此类推，即可模拟牧草整个物候期的变化。,每日发育时期指数可以表述为：,牧草物候模型的计算机模拟原理,23,温度和光照对发育的影响Impact of temperature and light on grass development,24,模型的
12、参数 Parameters,典型牧草物候模型主要参数列表,25,牧草不同物候阶段的温光指标范围 Range of index value for each phenological period,26,模型参数调试 Modelling test,不同牧草各物候阶段的模型参数及参数调试结果统计检验,27,牧草物候模型验证 Validation of Phenological period simulation,Observation,Observation,needlgrass,Leymus,Simulation,Simulation,28,察右后旗和鄂温克旗针茅返青期模拟值与实测值的比较 Co
13、mparison of simulated phenological period and measured phenological period,29,呼伦贝尔牧业试验站羊草产量变化(gm-2)Change of Chinese wildrye production in Hulunber trial station,30,呼伦贝尔牧业试验站牧草总产量变化(gm-2)Change of pasture production in Hulunber trial station,31,呼伦贝尔9月30日生物量与年降水量的关系Correlation of biomass production o
14、n 30th September and annual precipitation in Hulunber,32,小结 Brief summary,模型已能较好地模拟天然牧草物候期拟加入光合生产模型,以便能模拟草地生物量与气候变化结合,即可用于评估未来气候变化对草地物候和生物量的影响,33,4 基于SPACSYS模型的饲草作物生育模拟与情景分析 CC on pasture development and growth with SPACSYS model,模型简介 Introduction of SPACSYS model模型案例 Application；Case study基于典型区域气候情
15、景的模拟分析 Simulation of CC impact in typical climate sites,34,Lianhai WuCrop&Soil Systems Research GroupSottish Agricultural College,多层 multi-soil layers（用户设定土壤层数）田间尺度 field scale气候驱动 weather-driven日模拟 daily steps,作物生长和发育（包括地上和地下部分，可模拟单作或间作）plant growth and developmentN&C 循环 N&C cycling土壤水运动 soil water
16、 movement热量传递 heat conduction,SPACSYS模型作者及特点,35,Precipitation,Surface pool,Surface runoff,Groundwater,percolation,Evaporation,Runoff loss,N2O,NO,Transpiration,Soil water,Soil heat,Litter,manure,CO2,NO3,Microbial,NH4,CO2,CO2,Deposition,Fertiliser,CO2,leaching,leaching,Canopy storage,SPACSYS 模型框架 Fram
17、ework,36,leaves,stems,fresh OMpool,DOMpool,humuspool,manure,runoff,seeds,translocaton,microbepool,above ground litter,rootlitter,runoff,runoff,CO2,CO2,CO2,CO2,mortality,C 模块框架 C cycling,Photosynthate partitioning could be operated either by default equation or use-defined parameters,37,SPACSYS 数据支持
18、Dataset,气象数据 weather data（最高温度，最低温度，降水，风速，湿度，日照时数，总辐射，净辐射）土壤数据 soil information（土壤理化性质，土壤容重，孔隙度，萎蔫点，pH值等；土壤分层，及各层的水分含量，温度，C&N含量）作物参数 crop paremater（发育，光合，干物质分配，等；固氮，3D根系可选）作物管理等 plant management（播种，灌溉，施肥，翻耕等）SPACSYS模型数据运行与管理可通过MS SQL,MS Access or MySQL进行。,38,SPACSYS 数据输出 Output,作物模拟输出 Crop output土壤C
19、&N模拟输出 Soil C&N水热传输模拟输出 Water and heat根系模拟输出 Root system,发育期光合速率作物器官生长作物器官衰老作物呼吸叶面积,豆科作物固氮NO3-，NH4+吸收作物吸水作物各器官含氮量,39,SPACSYS在模拟牧草上的应用 Application,案例 Case 1：阿伯丁，苏格兰（Aberdeen,UK）2001-2003 大麦(barley),grass/clover mixed pasture案例 Case 2:欧洲气候背景下 1）Ris,Denmark 1984 2）Dijon,France 1999 3）Copenhagen,Denmark
20、 2000 豌豆（field pea)不同氮素肥料施用处理下的 N application treatments,40,SPACSYS模型验证对欧洲三个站点豌豆生长季内地上部分生物量模拟Comparison of simulated aboveground DM and measurement in all three sites横轴为实测值，纵轴为模拟值，()1:1 line,SPACSYS在欧洲气候背景下应用,41,SPACSYS模拟初步评估气候变化影响 CC on filed pea in Inner Mongolia based on scenario of SRES A2,地点：内蒙
21、古试验站 Inner Mongolia four sites(grids)格点 Central points of Grids 站名 纬度 经度 地形高度数据（单位：米）latitude longitude altitude(m)武川 Wuchuan 41.07 111.38 1529.77 四子王旗 Siziwangqi 41.51 111.41 1524.00 锡林浩特 Xilinhaote 43.89 116.42 1198.85 杭锦旗 Hangjinqi 39.82 108.44 1366.03,42,作物：豌豆（箭舌豌豆）Filed pea材料 Material 1:2008年内蒙
22、古武川粮草轮作试验 Experimental data in Wuchuan site 1）发育期观测 Development 2）开花期，结荚成熟期，成熟枯黄期，三个时期茎，叶，根，荚果干物重测定，最终产量 Biomass sampling 3）气候监测数据，土壤数据等 Weather and soil data 目的 Goal：作物参数调整 Crop parameter determination,43,情景分析 Weather data input SRES A2情景下HadAM3驱动的PRECIS第二组作业输出结果订正值及相应的气候基准时段订正值（其中风速为模式原始值）模拟 Model
23、ling 4月25日播种 sowing date 25th Apr.8月1日收获 harvest 1st Aug.1961-1990 2021-2050 输出 Output:豌豆的生育期，产量，生物量变化 development,seeds production,aboveground biomass,SPACSYS模拟案例,44,武川豌豆出苗期（自播种后日数）随气候变化趋势,Change of emergence in Wuchuan(days after sowing),45,武川豌豆开花期（自播种后日数）随气候变化趋势,Change of flowering in Wuchuan(day
24、s after sowing),46,武川豌豆成熟期（自播种后日数）随气候变化趋势,Change of mature in Wuchuan(days after sowing),47,武川豌豆发育期 development（自播种后天数 days after sowing）年代平均随气候变化趋势 in Wuchuan,48,武川豌豆籽粒产量（g/m2)随气候变化趋势,Change of seeds production at harvest in Wuchuan(g/m2),49,武川豌豆地上部生物量（g/m2)随气候变化趋势,Change of aboveground DM at harve
25、st in Wuchuan(g/m2),50,武川豌豆收获期生物量（g/m2）年代平均随气候变化趋势Change of biomass at harvest（g/m2）,51,锡林浩特地区,CC on field pea development in Xilinhaote发育期提早The whole growth length is shorten,52,利用气候情景模拟结果(锡林浩特地区)Simulation of CC on filed pea in Xilinhaote,成熟期提早接近10天,生物量减少,收获指数增加,53,四子王旗地区,CC on field pea developme
26、nt in SiIziwangqi发育期提早The whole growth length is shorten,54,四子王旗地区,55,利用气候情景模拟结果(四子王旗地区格点)Simulation of CC on filed pea in Siziwangqi,成熟期提早接近10天,地上总生物量减少,收获指数增加,56,杭锦旗地区格点,CC on field pea development in Hangjinqi发育期提早The whole growth length is shorten,H,H,H,57,杭锦旗地区格点,CC on field pea development in
27、Hangjinqi生物量下降Biomass declines,H,H,58,利用气候情景模拟结果(杭锦旗地区格点)Simulation of CC on filed pea in Hangjinqi,2030-2040年代,成熟期提早接近10天,地上总生物量减少,产量降低,收获指数增加,59,结论 Conclusion,气候变化使草地牧业的区域边界移动 Moving of pasture and husbandry border气候变化对草地牧草物候、生物量有影响 CC on pasture development and production利用模型可进行牧草发育期和生物量的模拟 Modelling pasture development and production与气候情景数据结合，加上土壤数据库，可模拟未来气候对牧草和饲料作物的影响 Modelling CC on pasture模拟工作刚开始，精细的工作有待今后进行。Potential works in future,60,谢谢!Thank you!,
