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1、,34%,买入,中性,32%,19%,日,2012 年 11 月 22 日中国：机械证券研究报告中国铁路建设重新加速；因预计收入/利润率扩张将中国北车加入强力买入名单（摘要）,动车组业务收入有望到 2015 年翻一番,因收入/利润率扩张将中国北车加入强力买入名单,我们认为中国铁路建设在暂停了一年多之后已开始重新加速。鉴于 2012-2015 年间将新开通 1.3 万多公里,尽管中国南车和中国北车均将获益于动车组和城轨地铁车辆业务的增长，但我们预计中国北车的市场份额,我们研究范围内的铁路装备企业概览,高铁线路，加之主要受新开通线路和动车组维护需求,相对于中国南车将提高，因为前者的研发投入令其在,
2、股票代码,公司简称,评级,现价,12个月目标价,潜在上行/下行空间,的推动（每六年需要进行一次全面检修，即五级修，而现在已经进入了高铁通车以来的第六年），我们预,技术/定价方面具有更强的竞争力。我们预计中国北车的毛利率将从 2011 年的 13.4%上升至 2014 年的,601299.SS601766.SS1766.HK,中国北车中国南车(A)中国南车(H),买入*,Rmb4.11 Rmb 5.5Rmb4.61 Rmb 6.1HK$6.38 HK$7.6,计 2012-2015 年动车组业务收入的年均复合增速将达到 31%。尽管我们承认部分新高铁线路的上座率可能低于成熟线路，但需要指出这些线
3、路只是主干线上的孤立区段，而且通车时间早于相邻区段，因此在我们看来这些线路并不具代表性。城轨地铁车辆业务：多年增长格局根据中国政府的规划，全国地铁总里程到 2015 年将达到约 3,800 公里、到 2020 年将进一步增至约 9,000 公里。我们预计 2012-2015 年将总计交付 1.85 万节地铁车厢，年均复合增速达到 38%，创造的总收入将达到人民币 1,100 亿元。中国南车和中国北车目前在手的未交付城轨地铁车辆订单约为 400 亿元，是两家公司2011 年该部分业务收入之和的三倍以上。*全文翻译将随后提供,14.9%（仍低于中国南车约 19%的水平），得益于公司用自主研制的“北
4、车芯”牵引系统取代了外购牵引系统。我们认为中国北车目前被低估，该股当前对应9.4 倍的 2013 年预期市盈率，低于主要竞争对手中国南车 A/H 股的 12.1 倍/13.4 倍。我们维持对中国北车的买入评级并将其加入强力买入名单。重申对中国南车 A 股的买入评级我们重申对中国南车 A 股的买入评级，因为：1)公司在动车组产品的技术方面拥有相对优势，而且在快速发展的城轨地铁车辆市场上处于领先地位；2)我们预计随着机车交付触底反弹，中国南车的毛利率将从2013 年起复苏；3)中国南车 A/H 股当前股价对应 12.9倍/14.9 倍的 12 个月预期市盈率，低于/接近历史均值以下 1 个标准差的
5、水平。然而，我们维持对中国南车H 股的中性评级，因为我们认为该股较我们 12 个月目标价格的上行空间有限。我们将研究范围内铁路装备股的 2012-2014 年每股盈利预测最多上调了 5%，并将12 个月目标价格上调了 22%-33%。,股价截至 2012 年 11 月 21 日收盘价。资料来源：Datastream、高华证券研究预测相关研究3,800 公里地铁线、2 万亿元建设支出、1.85 万节新车；买入中国南车 A 股/中国北车，2012 年 9 月 24 日中国：机械：8,000 亿新项目投资推动铁路建设前景向好，2012年 9 月 6 日中国：机械：铁路装备订单有望在下半年加速增长；将
6、南车/北车纳入研究范围；基于估值因素建议买入南车(A)，2012 年 5 月 14,陆天,CFA(分析师)执业证书编号:S1420510120010+86(10)6627-3036 北京高华证券有限责任公司金戈(研究助理)+86(10)6627-3007 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司,北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究,3,4
7、,11,15,18,23,2,2012 年 11 月 22 日Table of contentsFrom suspension to reacceleration:Multi-year growth for MUs and metroWe expect MU demand to double by 2015,driven by new lines and maintenanceMetro/subway revenue to more than double by 2015We use Directors Cut(EV/GCI-basis)to derive our target priceCN
8、R:Buy,add to CL;top line expansion and margin improvementCSR:Suspension in locomotives temporary;good MU and RTV exposureDisclosure AppendixThe prices in this report are based on the market close of November 21,2012,unless otherwise indicated.Exhibit 1:Ratings,TPs and potential upside/downside for o
9、ur rolling stock coverage,31,中国：机械,Ticker,Company,Market cap($mn),Ratingold,Ratingnew,Currentprice,12-m 12-mTarget Target Changeprice old price new,Potentialupside/downside,601299.SS601766.SS1766.HK,China CNR CorporationChina South Locomotive&Rolling Stock(A)China South Locomotive&Rolling Stock(H),6
10、,80510,21011,363,BuyBuyNeutral,Buy*BuyNeutral,Rmb4.11Rmb4.61HK$6.38,Rmb 4.5Rmb 4.9HK$5.7,Rmb 5.5Rmb 6.1HK$7.6,22%24%33%,34%32%19%,*On our regional Conviction ListSource:Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.Exhibit 2:Our EPS forecasts for CSR/CNR are 10%/20%above consensus for 2013E/201
11、4EEPS forecasts for CSR and CNR vs consensus,Ticker,Company,EPScurrency,EPS forecast2012E 2013E,2014E,2012E,EPS-old2013E,2014E,2012E,Change2013E,2014E,EPS-Bloomberg/Wind2012E 2013E 2014E,%above(below)consensus2012E 2013E 2014E,601299.SS601766.SS1766.HK,China CNR CorporationChina South Locomotive&Rol
12、ling Stock(A)China South Locomotive&Rolling Stock(H),RmbRmbRmb,0.310.280.28,0.440.380.38,0.570.480.48,0.310.280.28,0.410.370.37,0.540.460.46,0%2%2%,5%3%3%,5%5%5%,0.320.300.31,0.370.350.36,0.420.400.41,-4%-5%-8%,19%10%8%,34%20%17%,Median,2%,3%,5%,-5%,10%,20%,Source:Company data,Bloomberg,Wind,Gao Hua
13、 Securities Research estimates.高华证券投资研究,th,3,2012 年 11 月 22 日,中国：机械,From suspension to reacceleration:Multi-year growth for MUs and metroAfter more than a year-long suspension,we believe Chinas railway build-out is reaccelerating.We see a 31%CAGR for MU revenue during2012E-2015E,driven by over 13,00
14、0km HSR completion as well as major maintenance services starting 2013.Including the latest NDRCmetro projects approvals in September,China is set to have c.3,800km by 2015(all lines approved),further growing to c.9,000km by 2020(certain planned lines to be completed after 2015 have not obtained NDR
15、C approval yet).We estimate a total delivery of 18,500 metro carsbetween 2012E-2015E,implying 38%CAGR.Maintain a positive outlook on the rolling stock segment.Reiterate Buy on CNR,add to Conviction ListCSR/CNR have a duopoly in Chinas rolling stock market;we believe both will benefit from railway co
16、nstruction reacceleration.While CNR has a lower internalization rate in terms of key power,control and signaling systems due to the allocation of CSR ZhuzhouElectric Locomotive Research Institute(ZELRI)to CSR in 2007,with the launch of its in-house“Beichexin”power system we expect itsgross margin to
17、 improve from 13.4%in 2011 to 14.9%in 2014E(vs CSR already at 19.1%in 2011).We raise our 2012E-2014E EPS by up to 5%to reflect higher MU revenue growth/margin assumptions.We raise our 12-m Directors Cutbased TP to Rmb5.5,from Rmb4.5 previously,mainly reflecting the higher EPS estimates,higher Valrat
18、io,and our roll over of thevaluation basis to 2013/2014 average(from 2013 previously).At 9.8X 12-months forward P/E,we believe the stock is significantly undervalued with 2013E/2014E EPS growth of 41%/30%.Reiterate Buy on CSR(A),maintain Neutral on CSR(H)We like CSRs marginal technology/pricing adva
19、ntage in MU products and leading position in the booming RTV market.We expect CSRs gross margin to recover from 2013 along with locomotive delivery bottoming out.We raise our 2012E-2014E EPS by 2%-5%to reflect higher MU revenue growth.We raise our 12-m Directors Cut based TP for A/Hshares to Rmb6.1/
20、HK$7.6,from Rmb4.9/HK$5.1 previously,to reflect higher EPS estimates,higher Valratio,and our roll over of thevaluation basis to 2013/2014 average(from 2013 previously).CSR(A)/(H)currently trade at 12-m forward P/E below/close to 1 std dev below historical average.While CSR(H)traded at a discount toC
21、SR(A)historically,the discount has narrowed in recent months.We maintain Neutral on CSR(H)as we see limited upside potential toour 12-m target price.Risks to our view:Slower-than-expected railway construction resumption;Longer-than-expected suspension for MUs/locomotive ordersfrom MOR.Catalysts:1)Ne
22、w MU contracts to be announced in the next few months;2)other locomotives/freight/passenger/RTV orders;and 3)total2013 MOR budget for railway investment to be announced in early 2013.We expect a total budget of over Rmb600bn to meet the new linesopening schedule during the 12 FYP.高华证券投资研究,4,2012 年 1
23、1 月 22 日,中国：机械,We expect MU demand to double by 2015,driven by new lines and maintenanceOver 13,000km new lines to drive total new car demand of c.10,600 from 2012-2015(vs.less than 1,900 in 2011)While we already have c.7,500km HSR lines operating by end-2011,MOR and various local governments have p
24、lanned c.5,400km4H4V lines,c.3,400 intercity lines and c.4,700km other lines(with a designed speed over 200km/hour and which could run MUs)to beopened by 2015.We acknowledge that some of the new lines may start with lower density than the mature lines and hence assume a lower HSR densityof 0.8 car/k
25、m vs 0.84 car/km in 2011.That still drives c.10,600 MU cars demand during 2012-2015E,vs c.1,900 new cars delivered in2011,implying a 30%CAGR during 2012-2015(28%CAGR in MUs installed base).We estimate a delivery of c.2,360 cars in 2013E,or 295 standard train sets.,Exhibit 3:Over 13,000 km of HSR are
26、 planned to be completed by 2015Total HSR length,including 4 horizontal 4 vertical,intercity and other lines with designedspeed over 200km/hour,in km,Exhibit 4:Even assuming a lower density on the new lines,we expect 10,600HSR cars(1,320 standard sets)demand during 2012-2015Total HSR car installed b
27、ase(LHS),and implied HSR density(RHS),25,000,Other,Intercity,4H4V,2011,18,00016,000,New delivery(LHS)Total HSR cars installed base(LHS)Total HSR length(km,RHS),Density=0.8car/km,25,000,20,000,14,00012,000,20,000,15,000,10,0008,000,28%CAGR,15,000,10,0005,000,6,0004,0002,000,Density=0.84car/km,10,0005
28、,000,0,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,0,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,0,Source:MOR(Ministry of Railways),Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.,Source:MOR(Ministry of Railways),Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.,Concerns over low HSR occupancy rate and hence new MU demand overdoneWhile we
29、 prefer to measure official occupancy rate by passenger-kilometer,there is no official available data.However,if we use asimple passenger/seats data to measure the load factor,then Chinas HSR trains demonstrated a higher load factor vs Japans TokaidoShinkansen in 2011.高华证券投资研究,2010,5,2012 年 11 月 22
30、日Exhibit 5:Chinas HSR trains vs.Japans Tokaido Shinkansen,中国：机械,HSR Line,Trains per day Passenger(mn),Average passenger/train,Average seats/train,Load factor,China 2011Tokaido Shinkansen 2011,1,668333,420143,6901,177,7091,323,97.3%88.9%,Source:MOR(Ministry of Railways),Company data,Gao Hua Securitie
31、s Research.We emphasize that demand for HSR is back-end loaded.Ridership tends to steadily pick up after launch as:1)travelers get used to anew transportation mode;and 2)urban transportation facility between the HSR station and city center develops.For example,Taiwanshigh speed railway also saw its
32、ridership more than double over 3 years,and Frances TGV recorded a 17%CAGR between 1981 and2009.Chinas own Beijing-Tianjin HSR was also perceived to be expensive and its load factor low initially,but it is now running at 76pairs a day,or less than 5 mins per departure.We acknowledge that certain iso
33、lated lines such as Zhengzhou-XiAn line have less frequent services than other HSR lines however,we argue that this is because Zhengzhou-Xian was opened earlier than adjacent sections such as Zhengzhou-Beijing,Zhengzhou-Shijiazhuang,and Xian-Chengdu,and therefore travelers were limited to local serv
34、ices rather than part of a network.Nevertheless,we still assume a lower density(0.8 car/km in 2015E vs 0.84 in 2011)to be on the conservative side.,Exhibit 6:Ridership on Taiwans HSR more than doubled between 2007 and,Exhibit 7:Currently,Chinas HSR has a lower density than the more matureHSR lines o
35、verseas,and also lower than its own statistics in 2007HSR MU density,Cars/km,2010 numbers for countries/regions other than China,40,mn,Taiwan,car/km3.00,35,3025,2.502.00,20151050,33%CAGR,1.501.000.500.00,2007,2008,2009,2010,Korean Germany,Japan,Eurostar Taiwan,China2007,China2011,Source:MOR(Ministry
36、 of Railways),Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,Source:CEIC,MOR(Ministry of Railways),Gao Hua Securities Research.,3,6,6,2012 年 11 月 22 日,中国：机械As HSR enters its 6th year,maintenance demand will start to accelerateHSR trains have a strict repair/maintenance schedule and tier 3,4 and 5 repairs norm
37、ally need to be performed by the manufacturers.Inparticular,the 90 standard train sets(720 cars)that became operational in 2007 are now entering the sixth year of service and hence tier5 repairs are needed according to the schedule.We estimate that in 2013-2015 repair costs will be equivalent to buy
38、ing 164 standard train sets.We expect total repair demand to be equivalent to c.380 new cars costs in 2013,and as the fleet gets older repair demand is set toaccelerate.Assuming an 18-year useful life,an HSR trains repair costs will amount to 105%of new car cost,or 5.8%of a new car costper year.Exhi
39、bit 8:We expect total repair demand equivalent to c.380 new cars cost in 2013,on top of c.2,360 new car demand in 2013Total repair and new car demand4,500,4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000,HSR repair(equivalent to new car units)HSR cars-new demand,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,Source:
40、Company data,Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.Exhibit 9:MOR requirements regarding HSR MU repair/maintenance services,Required repair service,Triggers of repair servicesThousand Kilometers Years,Repair cost/newcar cost,Tier 3Tier 4Tier 5,6001,2002,400,1.5,2.5%10.0%20.0%,Source:MOR(Ministry of R
41、ailways),Gao Hua Securities Research.高华证券投资研究,th,600,250,500,200,th,th,th th,7,2012 年 11 月 22 日Exhibit 10:Tier 5 repair/maintenance will kick in as HSR enters the 6 yearTotal repair/maintenance costs equivalent to new carsTier 5 repair(every 6 years,costing 20%of new car cost)Tier 4 repair(every 3 y
42、ears,costing 10%of new car cost),中国：机械Exhibit 11:Assuming 18 years of useful life,total maintenance costs could beas high as new car costTotal repair/maintenance costs over 18 years,indexed to 100Tier 5 repair(every 6 years,costing 20%of new car cost)Tier 4 repair(every 3 years,costing 10%of new car
43、 cost)Tier 3 repair(every 1.5 years,costing 2.5%of new car cost)New car cost,400300200100-,Tier 3 repair(every 1.5 years,costing 2.5%of new car cost),150100500,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,Source:MOR(Ministry of Railways),Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.,Source:MOR(Ministry of Railwa
44、ys),Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.,Not just short-term cyclical recovery,but structural long term growth railways remain underinvestedWe think railways is one area where China remains underinvested:Chinas comparatively sparse railway system carries 25%of globalrailway traffic on only 6%of th
45、e worlds rail network(World Bank report,2009).Between 1971 and 2011,Chinas GDP per capita expandedby 27.3X,while total railway length grew by only 106%,from 45,300 km to 93,250km.China plans to further expand the length of its railwaynetwork to 120,000 km by 2015 according to its 12 Five-Year Plan(F
46、YP),still less than half the 2010 total length in the US.96.8 km of railways per 10,000 sq km in China vs 192.7 for India and 955.8 for GermanyChinas railway density,measured in total length divided by area and population,is far below that of most developed countries.Forexample,on average China has
47、96.8 km of railway per 10,000 sq km in 2011(94.7km in 2010,124.6 km by 2015,assuming a total of120,000km length),less than half that of India in 2010(192.7 km)and only one tenth of Germany in 2010(955.8km),which has one ofthe worlds most advanced railway networks.Ministry of Railways(MOR)2012 budget
48、 was recently raised(the third time this year)from Rmb580bn to Rmb610 bn,and theinfrastructure part is now Rmb496 bn vs Rmb461 bn in 2011.While railways FAI has already accelerated,recording 30%/93%yoygrowth in August/September(vs.+8%in July and-36%in 1H),the new budget implies 50%yoy growth in the
49、remaining 3 months of2012.Chinas 12 FYP prioritizes railways over other transportation modes,suggesting governments firm stance on continuous investments inrailways.The railways length grew by 17,812km over 2005-2011,and needs to grow by another 26,750km,or a 50%growth in 2012-2015 over the previous
50、 6-year period in order to achieve the 12 FYP target of 120,000km.The implied growth under 12 FYP for roadsand waterways are-48%and-51%,and for airways at+44%.While there is no explicit target for the subway,we estimate a 96%growth高华证券投资研究,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-06,Jan-09,Jan-12,Jul-06,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-
