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1、December 5,2012The Old EconomyRenaissanceCommodities Research2013-2014 Issues and Outlook,A renaissance,not an endWith commodity supply constraints easing,Chinese growth slowing andproducer company returns normalizing,it is tempting to call an end to thecommodity super cycle.However,we believe that
2、the currentdevelopments are simply the next phase of a commodity investment cyclethat began in the late 1990s that will create new opportunities;we thereforeview the current transition as a“renaissance”rather than an end.,Jeffrey Currie(212)357-6801 Goldman,Sachs&Co.Damien Courvalin(212)902-3307 Gol
3、dman,Sachs&Co.Samantha Dart+44(20)7552-9350,Goldman Sachs InternationalLong-term stability does not prevent near-term shortages,Although supply responses across the complex have created a more stablelong-term price environment,this does not preclude near-term tightness.As economic growth improves in
4、to the latter half of 2013,we believe thatcurrent fundamentals are likely to remain tight,increasing the positivecarry in forward curves with near-term prices above long-term prices,which will likely create significant investment returns despite our view formore stable long-term prices.This means co
5、mmodity markets will returnto trading as in the 1980s and 1990s,which stands in contrast to the 2000swhen forward curves for many commodities had negative carry with near-term prices below long-term prices,which acted as a drag on returns.Super-cycle returns not so super owing to negative carryTotal
6、 returns on S&P GSCI indices50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%,Max Layton+44(20)7774-1105 Goldman Sachs InternationalStefan Wieler,CFA(212)357-7486 Goldman,Sachs&Co.Johan Spetz(212)357-9225 Goldman,Sachs&Co.Roger Yuan+852-2978-6128 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,1985,1989,1993,1997,2001,2005,2009,GSCI
7、 Total ReturnGSCI Total Return average,Enhanced GSCI Total ReturnEnhanced GSCI Total Return average,Source:S&P.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certificationand other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go t
8、o,The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs,3,4,5,7,18,23,31,34,35,37,40,2,December 5,2012,Global,Table of contentsCurrent trading recommendationsPrice actions,volatilities and forecastsExecutive Summary2013-2014 Issues and Outlook:The Old Economy RenaissanceOil:Cyclically tight but structurally st
9、ableNatural Gas:Beyond the recovery,a more sustainable price rangeCopper:Resilience to continue,significant upside on pick-up in global industrial production in 2013but 2014 much,tougher,27,Aluminium:Outlook relatively bearish,risks skewed to downsideZinc:Large stock overhang and Chinese supply prof
10、itable but should balance up into 2014 on slower global supply,growthNickel:Prices well above$17,000/t appear unsustainableGold:The cycle is set to turn on improving US recoveryAgriculture:Nothing solved yetAppendices:Global crude oil supply and demandDisclosure AppendixGoldman Sachs Global Economic
11、s,Commodities and Strategy Research,3342,3,December 5,2012Current trading recommendations,Global,Current trades,First recommended,Initial value,Current Value,Currentprofit/(loss)1,Opening:The Commodity Carry Basket:Crude,Corn and Base(CCB)Long the S&P GSCI Petroleum,Corn and Copper total return indi
12、ces,short the S&P GSCI F3 Aluminium total return index,equally weighted,December 5,2012-2013-2014 OutlookLong NYMEX natural gas one-by-two call spreadLong one Jul-13 NYMEX natural gas$3.85/mmBtu call,short two Jul-13 NYMEX natural gas$4.70/mmBtu calls,100.00,November 11,2012-Natural Gas Watch,$0.12/
13、mmBtu,$0.13/mmBtu,$0.01/mmBtu,Long Jun-13 NYMEX WTI crude vs.short Jun-13 ICE Brent crudeBuy 1 Jun-13 NYMEX WTI crude,sell 1 Jun-13 ICE Brent,August 21,2012-Energy Weekly,($12.33/bbl),($15.81/bbl),($3.48/bbl),Long S&P GSCI Brent crude oil total return indexLong S&P GSCI Brent crude oil total return
14、index at initial index value of 1,174.26,August 21,2012-Energy Weekly,1,174.26,1,151.18,(12.74%),Rolled from a long September 2012 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil position on 21-Aug-12,carrying forward a potential loss of 10.77%Long Mar-13 MATIF Wheat vs.short Mar-13 CBOT WheatBuy 1 Mar-13 MATIF Wheat,sell 1 Ma
15、r-13 CBOT Wheat,hedge EUR/$exposure on entry,August 7,2012-Agriculture Update,($17.47/MT),$32.91/MT,$50.38/MT,Long GoldBuy April 2013 COMEX Gold,sell$1,850/toz Apr-13 call,buy$1,575/toz Apr-13 put,October 11,2010-Precious Metals,$1,698.9/toz,$1,698.9/toz,$317.8/toz,Rolled from a long Dec-12 COMEX Go
16、ld future position on 4-Dec-12 with a potential gain of$317.8/tozAs of close on December 4,2012.Inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses.Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Goldman Sachs Global Economics,Commodities and Strategy Research,4,1,2,3,4,4,December 5,2012Price actions,volatili
17、ties and forecasts,Global,Prices and monthlychanges1,Volatilities(%)and monthly changes2,Historical Prices,Price Forecasts3,units,04 Dec Change Implied2 Change Realized2 Change 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12,3m,6m,12m,Energy,WTI Crude OilBrent Crude OilRBOB GasolineNYMEX Heating OilNYMEX Nat.Ga
18、sUK NBP Nat.Gas,$/bbl$/bbl$/gal$/gal$/mmBtup/th,88.50109.842.693.003.5469.39,3.644.160.120.06-0.013.70,29.927.027.725.135.521.3,-1.90-2.57-3.19-1.940.320.46,30.625.728.524.437.517.7,4.12.9-6.31.3-3.6-6.1,102.34 89.54 94.06 103.03 93.35 92.20 111.00 106.00 99.00116.99 112.09 109.02 118.45 108.76 109.
19、42 115.00 110.00 105.003.10 2.89 2.62 3.06 2.95 2.95 3.03 2.88 2.553.05 2.98 2.98 3.16 2.89 3.00 3.19 3.09 3.014.38 4.06 3.48 2.50 2.35 2.89 4.00 4.25 4.5058.04 57.03 61.56 57.46 55.89 56.92 75.30 73.20 76.20,Industrial Metals,LME AluminumLME CopperLME NickelLME Zinc,$/mt$/mt$/mt$/mt,2,0948,03217,50
20、52,022,1693671530148,19.722.426.422.4,-0.90-0.83-1.86-2.06,19.814.522.519.3,1.8-1.61.02.2,2,618 2,430 2,115 2,219 2,019 1,950 2,000 2,000 2,1009,163 8,993 7,530 8,329 7,829 7,721 8,000 9,000 8,00024,191 22,037 18,396 19,709 17,211 16,396 16,500 16,500 17,0002,271 2,247 1,917 2,042 1,932 1,905 1,950
21、2,000 2,100,Precious Metals,COMEX GoldCOMEX Silver,$/troy oz$/troy oz,1,69432.7,191.9,13.924.1,-1.05-2.59,16.031.0,3.87.3,1,50838.3,1,70438.8,1,68531.8,1,69332.7,1,61229.4,1,65429.9,1,82530.5,1,80530.1,1,80030.1,Agriculture,CBOT WheatCBOT SoybeanCBOT CornNYBOT CottonNYBOT CoffeeNYBOT CocoaNYBOT Suga
22、rCME Live CattleCME Lean Hog,Cent/buCent/buCent/buCent/lbCent/lb$/mtCent/lbCent/lbCent/lb,8571,417747731372,49119.4126.184.5,-8-3773-17440.00.76.7,26.019.823.622.528.226.622.111.015.9,-0.64-1.59-1.20-2.06-1.54-1.36-0.49-0.21-2.02,23.017.816.415.235.924.525.47.814.5,3.4-9.1-9.2-12.17.1-1.24.8-0.1-7.9
23、,7451,36173115627130432411194,6901,3566961062562,9622911594,6151,175620952292,3832512188,6431,272641932052,3082512587,6411,426618801702,2222111788,8711,677783731722,4382112283,9501,650825701752,30022.0115.079.0,9501,550825751752,30022.0120.076.0,8001,350650751752,45022.0130.095.0,Monthly change is d
24、ifference of close on last business day and close a month ago.Monthly volatility change is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month(3-mo ATM implied,1-mo realized).Price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-,6-,and 12-months time.Based on LM
25、E three month prices.Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.Goldman Sachs Global Economics,Commodities and Strategy Research,5,December 5,2012,Global,Executive SummaryCrude oil:We expect that the global oil market will remain cyclically tight and inventorieslow in the 2013-2014 period de
26、spite the fact that we expect a structurally much more stablemarket,where longer-term prices remain anchored around$90/bbl.We therefore maintainour average 2013 forecast for Brent crude oil at$110.00/bbl and introduce a 2014 forecastat$105.00/bbl.Further,we expect US Mid-Continent crude inventories
27、to reconnect to theglobal crude market and for Brent-WTI spreads to narrow sharply going forward astransportation bottlenecks ease and we maintain our average price forecast for WTI of$105.50/bbl for 2013 and introduce a price forecast of$99/bbl for 2014,reflecting anaverage Brent-WTI spread of$4.50
28、/bb and$6.00/bbl in 2013 and 2014,respectively.Natural gas:Despite the recent weather-driven pull-back,we expect US natural gas pricesto continue to recover in 2013-2014 as the need for price-induced coal-to-gas switching isfurther reduced and dry shale gas production will need to start growing agai
29、n.Beyond2014,we expect demand growth from coal-fired power plant retirements and LNG exportsagainst ample production potential to result in more range-bound prices in the medium tolong term.We introduce a 2014 average NYMEX natural gas price forecast of$4.25/mmBtu,in line with our 2013 forecast,and
30、expect NYMEX natural gas prices to establish a$4.00-5.00/mmBtu trading range in coming years.In contrast to the US market,global gasmarkets will likely remain in a deficit in the near to medium term.From 2015,however,theincremental liquefaction capacity expected to come online is likely to rebalance
31、 the marketand lead to lower spot LNG prices.This tightening trend in the global LNG market through2014 followed by a softening market in 2015 and beyond is likely to drive the Europeannatural gas balance and,accordingly,we reiterate our 2013 UK NBP forecast of 73.8p/th($11.50/mmBtu).Base metals:Cop
32、per is still our preferred base metal as we head into 2013.Its highexposure to continued strength in late cycle Chinese construction completions(c.50%ofChinese consumption),together with an anticipated rebound in underperforming sectors inChina(consumer appliances,manufacturing,machinery)and a pick-
33、up in ex-Chineseconsumption(US housing,general EM activity)are expected to underpin copperconsumption growth through mid-late 2013.While we also expect copper mine supplygrowth to accelerate to above trend rates in 2013,this is not expected to shift the marketinto a noticeable surplus until 2014.By
34、2014,above trend supply growth is expected tocontinue in the face of a sharp slowdown in Chinese construction completions,movingcopper into a surplus of at least 300,000t,and driving prices down from a peak of$9,000/tin 2013 to an average c.$7,000/t in 2014.Aluminium is expected to remain in surplus
35、 andtrade in contango in 2013,underperforming copper,with market specific price risks skewedthe downside.Specifically,the outlook for aluminium has deteriorated since we last wroteon the market on October 15,partly owing to lower cost support,and we downgrade our2013 price forecasts accordingly(we n
36、ow see$2,100/mt as fully priced).Overall theprospects for zinc are not particularly bullish for 2013,but should gradually improve in2014,as the market balances up on slower global supply growth following the closure of anumber of depleted mines.Meanwhile,we continue to be bearish on the nickel marke
37、tfundamentals with any significant rally above$17,000/t expected to be a good level tohedge/establish a short position over the short to medium term.Precious metals:We expect gold prices to peak in 2013 as US growth recovery takes hold.Gold prices have remained range-bound in 2012,despite a steady d
38、ecline in US real ratesand a rise in central bank holdings that would ordinarily be supportive.The key driver tothis dislocation is that gold prices“look through”easing that does not require Fed balancesheet expansion,like Operation Twist since September 2011.Looking forward,oureconomists forecast t
39、hat the US economic recovery will slow early in 2013 beforereaccelerating in the second half.They also expect additional expansion of the FedsGoldman Sachs Global Economics,Commodities and Strategy Research,6,December 5,2012,Global,balance sheet.Near term,the combination of more easing and weaker gr
40、owth shouldprove supportive to gold prices and our 3-mo forecast is$1,825/toz.Medium term however,the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradualincrease in US real rates on better US economic growth.Our expanded modeling suggeststhat the improving US growth o
41、utlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansionand that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013 with our 6-and 12-month gold priceforecasts of$1,805/toz and$1,800/toz and our 2014 forecast at$1,750/toz.Risks to ourgrowth outlook remain elevated however,especially given the uncerta
42、inty around the fiscalcliff,which makes calling the peak in gold prices a difficult exercise.Agriculture:Grain prices rallied sharply in 2012 on the back of droughts in the US,SouthAmerica and the Black Sea,the worlds major producing and exporting regions.Thesedroughts followed disappointing weather
43、 conditions in both 2010 and 2011,leaving theglobal or US corn,wheat and soybean markets in deficit for the past three years.Webelieve that the combination of downside risks to crop production and signs of resilientdemand will require higher crop prices in the coming months given already very lowinv
44、entories,especially for corn.The upside to soybean prices is potentially larger than forcorn but would require further deterioration in South American weather.While averageweather conditions in 2013 could bring a significant rebound in production and inventoriesand in turn push prices sharply lower,
45、weather conditions remain challenging across majorproducing regions and especially in the US where the drought persists.Given the growingrisk that crop production disappoints again in 2013,we expect that new-crop prices willremain high by historical standards until at least next spring.Recommending
46、CCB basket to benefit from positive carry:To take advantage of our viewof increasing carry in key commodity markets,we recommend opening an equally weightedposition in GSCI-style rolling front month indices in petroleum,corn and for base,copper lessaluminium(Commodity Carry Basket:Crude,Corn and Bas
47、e,or CCB).Near-termfundamentals still remain tight in crude oil,corn and copper,which reinforces our morepositive view on near-term prices.In oil it is the combination of Iranian sanctions,lowinventory cover and limited spare OPEC production capacity that drives the near-termtightness.In copper it i
48、s robust growth in Chinese construction completions,a pick-up inChinese property sales and a modest rebound in ex-Chinese demand that is expected tounderpin demand through mid-late 2013.While we also expect copper mine supply growthto accelerate to above trend growth in 2013,this is not expected to
49、shift the market into anoticeable surplus until 2014.For corn,our forecast for lower US production in the face ofresilient demand requires prices to rise further to avoid inventories from falling to criticallylow levels.While the upside potential for soybeans is greater should weather in SouthAmeric
50、a deteriorate further,we have a stronger conviction that corn prices are too low.Further corn prices should follow a rally in soybean prices as corn cannot afford to loseacreage ahead of next springs US planting season.Net,this near-term tightness in oil,cornand copper should support backwardation m
