《3Q12EARNINGSROUNDUP1120.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《3Q12EARNINGSROUNDUP1120.ppt（15页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、May-12,May-12,Nov-12,Aug-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Sep-12,Mar-12,Feb-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jun-12,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Oct-12,Apr-12,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jul-12,Jul-12,Jul-12,19 November 2012,30.0,25.0,20.0,10.0,-5.0,5.0,0.0,79.42,Thailand,Market UpdateForeign/Institutional Research Unit,SNC Former(SNC3Q12 Earnin
2、gs Round Up,Maria LapizMaria.Lmaybank-ke.co.th(66 2)257 0250Pongrat RatanatavananandaPongrat.Rmaybank-ke.co.th(662)658 6300 ext 1398Nalinee Praman(Database)Nalinee.Pmaybank-ke.co.thKELIVE Research TeamSukit.Umaybank-ke.co.thSuttatip.Pmaybank-ke.co.thSutthichai.Wmaybank-ke.co.thWoraphon.Wmaybank-ke.c
3、o.thTermporn.Tmaybank-ke.co.thJaroonpan.Wmaybank-ke.co.thChatchai.Jmaybank-ke.co.thSectors Performers Rel to SET Index40.035.0,Catch up in 3Q12=mild earnings upgrade in 4Q123Q12 rebound was commodities-linked driven:The SET100 posteda very strong rebound in profit growth 88%QoQ,33%YoY reflecting the
4、positive base effect of the flood-related disruption last year and strongearnings recovery in the Commodities-linked sector due to the absenceof inventory/stock losses.Excluding the Energy 11%if weexclude the Energy/Petrochem sectorsGrowth in SET100 Property,Electronics(ETRON)and Autosappears more s
5、ustainable:Banking,Commerce&ICT sectors thatwere performers in 2Q12 posted 20%YoY growth in 3Q12 but themomentum is slowing.Among the big sectors,the Property,Petrochemand Energy/Utilities reported stellar growth ranging 59%-579%QoQ andpositive momentum as earnings rose 42-98%YoY.However,we thinktha
6、t the earnings trend in the Property Sector is more sustainable asthe earnings in the other two sectors could be distorted by inventory&stock losses.In the smaller sectors the AUTOS excelled,posting60%QoQ,26%YoY along with the ETRON whose aggregate earningsrose 99%QoQ,116%YoY.The base effect in the
7、ETRON Sector isstronger than in the Autos because the 2H11 flooding hit the former,earlier.The Auto sector continues to benefit from the Thai governmentsFirst Car Policy program.15.0The worst performing sector was the F&B,posting 8%QoQ drop inearnings and 28%YoY mainly because of very weak performan
8、ce fromCPFs(livestock)and KBS(sugar).-10.0SMID-biased coverage underperformed in 3Q12 but still ahead on,PropertySource:Bloomberg,Commerce,Banking,Auto,9M12 basis:The MBKET/KELIVE universe(“the Portfolio”),which haspreponderance of medium&small capitalization stocks(SMIDs)postedgrowth of 44%YoY,outp
9、erforming the SET100 growth.However,Top 10 Stocks-High Earnings Upgrade PotentialStock 9M12 FY12E%of FY12ECPN 5,079 4,088 124.25,excluding Energy/Petrochem sectors the Portfolios earnings posted a5%decline QoQ but 12%growth YoY.Companies in the Services-Related Sectors were the main drag.For the 9M1
10、2,the Portfolio posted,RATCHTOPCPFKTBPTTGCTHAIBCPCPALL,6,87510,39518,55222,66023,6133,8683,1268,261,7,22511,33920,35225,47328,1754,6803,81610,391,95.1691.6791.1688.9683.8182.6581.9179.50,a 16%YoY growth;excluding the Energy&Petrochem sectors growthwas 20%YoY-overall still better than SET100s.Earning
11、s upgrade likely in the short term:The favorable base effectheightening the 4Q12 will provide a strong finish for 2012.While thiswould likely be in the forecast already there is now a scope for an,PTTEP 43,548 54,830Source:MBKET and KELIVE estimatesTop 10 BUY-Rated Stocks in SET50 with Upside to PT,
12、earnings upgrade,in our view.The 50%run rate for the Portfolioearnings in 2Q12 was pulled up by the strong catch up in 3Q bringing9M12 earnings to 75%of the FY12 forecast;77%if we exclude the,StockHEMRAJMAKROTOPBJCBIGCCPFBBLTCAPSCBBTS,RatingBUYBUYHOLDHOLDHOLDBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY,Price(Bt)3.12434.0062.255
13、8.50179.0033.50176.0035.25157.506.15,Target(Bt)4.00478.0067.7563.50193.0036.00188.5037.75168.506.55,Upside(%)28.210.18.88.57.87.57.17.17.06.5,Energy referto side tables for Top 10 with upgrade potentials and Top 10 Stocks(SET50 based only)with upside to price.SAT,an autoplay,is aSET100 stock and it
14、has over 30%upside to our price target.,Source:MBKET and KELIVE estimatesSEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,HighlightsSET100 Winners:PROPERTY,ETRON,HEALTHCARE,AUTOShe SET posted 3Q12 earnings of THB196b,up 33%QoQ and 88%YoYdue to the solid profit growth of ENERGY,PET
15、ROCHEM andPROPERTY sectors.Excluding the ENERGY and PETROCHEMsectors,earnings were THB102b,up 5%QoQ and 16%YoY driven byagribusiness(STA),automotive(SAT),Electronics(DELTA,HANA,SVI),finance(ASP and KTC),healthcare(BH and BGH)and propertysectors(AMATA,CPN,HEMRAJ,LH,QH,STEC,STPI,TTCL andROJNA).On 9M12
16、 basis,the profit was THB483b,up 3%YoY.Excluding theENERGY and the PETROCHEM sectors,earnings reached THB303b,up 11%YoY.The number of performing sectors in 1H12 particularly inthe 2Q became laggards in 3Q,and vice versa so that the 9M12 growthwould show a broad based contribution.However,we note tha
17、t an11%YoY growth is not particularly exciting.Table 1:SET100 The 3Q/9M12 Earnings by Sectors,Net Profit,%Ch,9M Net Profit,%Ch,Sector,3Q12,3Q11,2Q12,QoQ YoY,2012,2011,9M,AgribusinessAutomotive,763258,304205,-458161,nm60%,151%26%,689626,2,939505,-77%24%,Banking,44,395 36,131 44,239,0%,23%,129,691,109
18、,449,18%,Commerce,6,599,5,292,6,589,0%,25%,20,711,16,056,29%,Construction Materials,7,742 16,076,5,240,48%,-52%,20,952,38,410,-45%,Electronic Components,3,130,1,452,1,570,99%,116%,5,993,4,469,34%,Energy&Utilities,78,700 39,487 13,328,490%,99%,151,691,176,684,-14%,Finance and SecuritiesFood and Bever
19、ageHealth Care Services,4356,4553,191,3428,8771,727,2437,1521,794,79%-10%78%,27%-27%85%,81329,5448,794,1,05222,7144,709,-23%30%87%,ICT,14,322 10,840 13,790,4%,32%,44,144,45,354,-3%,InsuranceMedia&PublishingPackaging,8441,944241,1,0631,560347,8081,906142,4%2%69%,-21%25%-31%,2,5655,541422,3,3424,7671,
20、802,-23%16%-77%,Petrochemicals&Chemicals,14,476 10,198,2,077,597%,42%,28,096,17,678,59%,Property DevelopmentSteelTourism&LeisureTransportation&Logistics,10,9012501041,265,7,645-837326,963,6,839-1,688164383,59%nm-37%230%,43%nm225%-82%,25,339-2,0198338,642,17,852-1,6114751,128,42%-%75%666%,Grand Total
21、Ex Energy/Petrochem,196,014 147,704 104,279102,838 98,018 88,873,88%16%,33%5%,483,068303,280,467,774273,412,3%11%,Source:SET,MBKET calculationsNonetheless,if we sift through the QoQ,YoY and the 9M12performance of the SET100 the sector winners are AUTOS(SAT-Buy),ELECTRONICS(DELTA-Not Rated and SVI-Bu
22、y),HEALTHCARE(BHand BGH both Not Rated)and PROPERTY(AMATA,CPN,HEMRAJ,QH,RML,STEC,STPI,ROJNA and TTCL all are ratedBUYs).The key performance drivers on 9M12 and our thoughts on thesector as we look to 2013:AUTOS the Thai govt First Car Policy has been a very powerfuldriver,shoring up the auto sector
23、and potentially bringing in between500-650K new car purchased this YE12.Domestic auto sales are likelyto reach 1.1-1.2mn units by YE12.That the exports of Thai autos didnot collapse as expected late last year when the measure wasconsidered despite weak external economies but instead rose 17%YoYdurin
24、g 9M12 and the fact that the sector recovery from the flooddamage has been much faster than expected we have a sector boomin auto production.While the prime beneficiaries here are the FDI auto companiesespecially the Japanese auto principals,some listed auto parts,19 November 2012,Page 2 of 15,compa
25、nies benefit SAT(casting,disc/brakes and safety part axleshafts),AH(stamping metal and plastic parts&jigs)and STANLY(lighting only).On valuation reasons and positive company specificdriver in 2013 SAT is our favorite 12 months out.While our baseline assumption is for growth to continue in 2013 fromt
26、he high base of 2012 there increasingly appears a downside risk to thisview.The First Car Policy is a non-equitable measure and has a strongforeign bias as profits flow to the auto principals rather than the locallyowned companies(some flow to the local banks&hire purchasecompanies,a little flow to
27、the autoparts sector and some as earnings tolocal labor the sector employs nearly 8%of the labor force)so thesubsidy program,budgeted for THB50b in 2012,could very difficult tosustain.We conclude that if new car purchases in 2013 go back to the5-yr average annual volume of 660K the sector could regi
28、ster acontraction in volume.However,we cant give a 100%vote on thisoutcome because the Thai government may come up with somescheme to shore up volume if it deems necessary to maintain goodwillto attract potential FDI.This is why we like SAT(BUY)the best in thesector because its earnings could ride t
29、he high volumes but sans that itcould still grow via margin enhancement as its ICP 2 facility hits 100%utilization.Electronics Thailand is a big producer in a number of low-valueadded electronics components and a very marginal player on hi-techcomponents.The sector or at least the listed electronics
30、 companieswere hit hardest by the flooding in 2011 primarily because thendproduction facilities are mostly located in the north of Bangkok,the 2area after Samut Prakarn that was the focus of the industrializationprogram in the 1990s.(This is also the area where many universitiesare located.)The earn
31、ings rebound in 2Q and 3Q captures in part thenormalization of the production facilities and in 3Q the sector was ridingpiggy back on the rebound in global demand for tech products.Theoutlook on the sector remains hostage to the vagaries of the globaldemand for gadgets.We have thin coverage on this
32、sector but SVI(BUY)we like because of its relative hi-tech orientation,arguably thefaster growing segment.Healthcare Our coverage in the sector is limited to the newly-listedVIH,which is a small player and reported a 27%YoY decline in 3Q12earnings.Property The SET100 Property Sector posted growth of
33、 59%YoY,43%QoQ in 3Q12 and 42%YoY in 9M12.The Portfolio Property Sectorposted growth of 57%YoY,92%QoQ and 45%YoY in the 9M12.Tosome extent the Property story is well known,the 9M12 profitsaccounting for 71%of the FY12 forecast.There are two major drivers inthe Property Developers segment:project lau
34、nches,+34%YoY during10M12,and affordability ie access to mortgage financing.As for the industrial estate segment of the sector the driver is strongland sales and increased utilities related income pertaining to HEMRAJ(BUY)and ROJNA(BUY).However,we focused our discussion onProperty Developers because
35、 this is the biggest component of thesector,accounting for 53%of the reported profits in 3Q12 based on thePortfolio.Table 2:The Portfolio Property Sector Earnings Composition,%breakdown,3Q12,3Q11,Chg YoY,2Q12,Chg QoQ,Industrial EstatesContractorsCommercialProperty developerSector Total,12%8%27%53%,1
36、,3518342,9805,78710,952,2982936144,5075,712,353%185%385%28%92%,9895491,3094,1326,979,37%52%128%40%57%,Note:The Portfolio refers to MBKET/KELIVE coverage Source:SET,MBKET and KELIVE estimates,19 November 2012,Page 3 of 15,As presales maintained the strong momentum in 3Q12 visibility remainsvery high
37、especially for the 4Q12(and potentially a record quarter if thecondo projects in the pipeline are completed on time)and extendingwell onto 2014.As the year 2013 unfolds we could see intra-sectordynamics playing between micro strategies of each company butoverall every player,especially the top devel
38、opers,will benefit from thepositive trend.Of late the pre-build strategy has become the“strategy ofthe season”along with the advantage of having a sizeable land bank.Our sector picks are AP,QH,PS with PS being particularly attractive in2013 because of its land bank and the implementation of its REMs
39、trategy.The increasing attraction to these two strategies,land banking and pre-building,stems from 1)the issue of increasingly tightening labor marketpotentially causing delays in completion,and 2)appreciation of landprices after the recent adjustment in the benchmark prices as well asrising demand
40、for the assets as alternative investment as real interestrate in Thailand has been in the negative territory for the most part of2012.Based on management updates two big developers are alreadyexperiencing delays in their condo projects due to labor shortage although both maintains that they can stil
41、l met their FY12 target.Theshortage of labor is an interesting development especially that this isthe sector that has a big shadow labor market,in our observation.Based on the discussions with various companies,this analystconcludes that the shortage stems from the overall high demand for lowskilled
42、 labor and that the subcontractors or brokers are the lowestpayers of labor.Various aspects of labor issues are likely to feature in the headlines inearly 2013 and though these issues may appear marginal but theycould still hit the supply of labor at the low end of the pay scale.Thiscould create a n
43、egative overhang in the sector a minor hiccup could beblown out of proportion causing poor share price performance.Thus,the risk of execution delays bears close watch starting 2013.thOne recent example,in 30 Oct the Minister of Labor signed anamendment to the Ministerial Regulation to improve the em
44、ploymentterms of domestic helpers to include paid leave,vacation,mandatedholiday in a week,sick leave entitlements.Unaudited data estimatesthat there are about 4.0m people working in this sector and yet thereare anecdotal evidences of chronic shortages.Betterment of theemployment conditions could pu
45、ll women workers away fromconstruction works.Thailand is one of the few countries where womenwork alongside men in heavy,manual labor.,19 November 2012,Page 4 of 15,Chart 1:Monthly Ages of private sector construction is just marginallyhigher than agriculture(Baht)Note:minimum wage adjustment in 2012
46、 and 2013 will affect the wages across the boardSource:Labor Force SurveyProperty companies are becoming cognizant of the potential riskassociated to labor shortage and medium sized contractors liquiditysituation.For example,SPALI(HOLD)one of the property companieskeen in growing revenues from provi
47、nces has joined with KBANK in aprogram to help its access to financing without collateral at lowerinterest rate.SPALI will recommend to KBANK those contractors thathave served them for at least two years and have never abandoned aproject partway through.KBANK,in turn will grant financial credit to a
48、contractor up to THB3mn with interest at the minimum retail rate(MRR)plus 3 percentage points per annum for two years,says VasinVanichvoranun,KBANKs executive vice president.KBANK expects tofinance at least 100 SPALI contractors.Access to funding will allow thecontractor to bid competitively in the
49、tight labor market.A few losers in 3Q12:QoQ and YoY loser 3Q12 is F&B which wasmainly CPF-Buy while on 9M12 the losers are AGRIBUS(GFPT-NotRated and STA-Sell),CONSMAT(DCC-Hold,SCC-Buy,SCCC-UnderReview,TASCO-Not Rated and TPIPL-Not Rated),FINANCE(KGI-NotRated and KTC-Not Rated),INSURE(BLA-Not Rated)a
50、ndPACKAGING(AJ and PTL both Not Rated).Among the losers group we highlight F&B and CONSMAT becausewe have virtually no coverage on the other sectors.F&B especially CPF:The decline of 40%YoY,63%QoQ in 3Q12 isbasically a highlighting that despite acquisitions,geographicalexpansion and increasing focus
