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1、Arthur Liao,1,Taiwan Equity|Annual Report,Fubon ResearchNovember 20,2012Market WeightSource:Company,Fubon ResearchPC sector vs.Taiex,PC sector 2013 outlookGoogle fights Apple,Windows 8 sits outside the ringInvestment summaryWith the rise of tablets and smartphones,consumers are spending less time on
2、 NBs.Mobility is becoming more important than stationary productivity.With the proliferationof wireless connectivity(3G,LTE),consumers preference for mobility is higher thanever.Basic tasks like e-mail,web browsing,social networking and media consumptionwhich were previously done on NBs have moved t
3、o mobile devices.This structural shiftin consumer behavior leads us to believe that the NB industry will not grow in 2013.Google and Apple the leading players,Windows 8 standing byGoogle has launched its Nexus series family of products,setting Nexus 4 vs.iPhone 5,80706050,x 1.41.21.00.8,Nexus 7 vs.i
4、Pad Mini and recently,Nexus 10 vs.iPad.We expect more intensecompetition between Google and Apple in mobile devices in the future.Bothcompanies want to dominate and grab maximum profit from mobile devices.However,we dont see any advantage for Windows 8 amid this trend.Googles best interest is ifthe
5、tablet market becomes a commodity market like the PC,which would help drive theadoption of Google Play,the alternative to iTunes.In Taiwan,we view only Asustek,11/11/14,12/2/14,12/5/14,12/8/14,12/11/14,(2353 TT,Add)as a Google play stock.,PC sector indexSource:Fubon Research(886-2)6600-Lynn Luo(886-
6、2)6600-,Sector/Taiex(RHS),Tablet substitution cannibalizing NBsWe expect PC(NB+DT)sales to decline 3%YoY in 2013 to 340mn from 349mn in 2012.With tablet substitution for NBs accelerating,we revise down our NB projection to194mn(down 4%YoY)and expect that the unit gap will be only 30mn units betweenN
7、Bs and tablets in 2013,with more tablets than NBs in 2014.Combined NB and tabletunits are expected to grow 12.2%in 2012,which will likely increase to 15.7%in 2013,suggesting that there is no real demand issue,but rather an issue of substitution(tablets substituting for NBs).Compal(2324 TT)and Wistro
8、n(3231 TT)will be victims ofthis trend,but Pegatron(4938 TT)is likely to come out a winner.,Will iTV launch in 4Q13?Limited TV content is an obstacle for the spread of smart TVs,and we believe it will takesome time before we see widespread sales.We believe the driving force will be fromdedicated TV
9、applications,user interface differentiation,and a shift to larger sizes(50”).We expect that Apple will launch its 60”iTV in 4Q13 because its ecosystem onthe iPhone and iPad is mature,there are enough applications,and the OS includes theuser-friendly Siri voice interface.Hon Hai(2317 TT)will likely b
10、enefit as the soleassembler.PC sector valuation summary,Company,Ticker,MktCap,Fubon,Price,TP,EPS(NT$),PE(X),PB(X),ROE(%),Yield(%),(US$mn),Rating,(NT$),(NT$),FY12F,FY13F,FY12F,FY13F,FY12F,FY13F,FY12F,FY13F,FY12F,FY13F,Hon HaiAsustekPegatronAcerQuantaSynnexWistronCompal,2317 TT2357 TT4938 TT2353 TT238
11、2 TT2347 TT3231 TT2324 TT,36,6698,0502,8472,2769,0103,0582,1272,807,AddAddAddNeutralNeutralNeutralReduceReduce,90311372368562819,107350442260612416,8.029.82.10.26.24.22.81.5,8.631.43.01.65.94.83.01.6,11.310.417.396.110.913.310.012.3,10.59.912.415.111.511.99.411.7,1.61.80.90.81.92.01.00.7,1.41.70.80.
12、81.81.90.90.7,13.618.45.10.918.315.49.76.1,13.717.96.85.516.016.610.05.7,2.06.33.0N.M.5.95.35.316.2,2.06.74.24.35.95.36.016.2,Source:Fubon Research estimates as of close on 2012/11/15See last page for disclaimer.,2,Taiwan Equity|Annual ReportGoogle and Apple the leading players,Windows 8 standing by
13、In our view,Google launched the Nexus 4,Nexus 7 and Nexus 10 to gain share for theAndroid ecosystem vs.the iOS.Google has a 95%share of mobile search,underscoring itsstrong mobile position.Some industry reports said that Google could be generatingaround US$9 per year per smartphone in the US and Wes
14、tern Europe through advertisingthrough Googles search engine.Long-term,it is probably in Googles best interest if the tablet market becomes more like acommodity market,similar to what happened historically in the PC space,which wouldhelp drive the adoption of Google Play,the alternative to iTunes.Fo
15、r example,the Nexus 7tablet with Android OS is optimized for consumer music,movies,games,books andmagazines through Google Play.In addition,we note that Google acquired Motorola Mobility in 3Q11 for US$12.5bn andadded over 17k patents to enhance the Android system.In the long term,Google will likely
16、work with top-tier mobile vendors to develop a high-end model to more directly competewith Apple,similar to Nexus 4 vs.iPhone 5,Nexus 7 vs.iPad Mini and Nexus 10 vs.iPad.Figure 1:Google vs.Apple product comparison,Nexus 4,iPhone 5,Nexus 7,iPad Mini,Nexus 10,iPad 4,Display,4.7 IPS LCD 1280 x768,318 p
17、pi,4.0 in-cell TFT1136x640,326ppi,7(1280 x768)IPS LCD,216ppi,7.9(1024x768)IPSLCD,162ppi,10.5(2560 x1600),300ppi,9.7(2048x1536)IPSLCD,264ppi,CPU,Qualcomm SnapdragonS4 Pro,Quad core,1.5GHz,Apple A6,Dual core,1.3GHz,Tegra 3 quad-core1.3GHz,Apple A5,Dual core,1GHz,Samsung Exynos 5,Dual Dual core,Apple A
18、6X,core,1.7GHz 1.4GHz,OSCameraMemory,Android 4.28MP/1.3MP2GB RAM,iOS 68MP,f2.4(AF;1080p)/1.2MP HD1GB RAM,Android 4.11.2MP front camera1GB RAM,iOS 65MP(1080p video)/1.2MP512 MB RAM,Android 4.25MP(1080p video)/1.9MP2GB RAM,iOS 65MP(1080p video)/1.2MP1GB RAM,Dimensions,133.9 x 68.7 x 9.1 mm,123.8 x 58.
19、6 x 7.6 mm 198.5 x 120 x 10.45 mm,200 x 134.7 x 7.2 mm,263.9 x 177.6 x 8.9 mm 241.2 x 185.7 x 9.4 mm,16.3-watt-hour,42.5-watt-hour,Battery,2100mAh,1440mAh,4325 mAh,rechargeable,9000mAh,rechargeable,lithium-polymer battery,lithium-polymer battery,Storage,8GB/16GB,16GB/32GB/64GB,8GB/16GB,16GB/32GB/64G
20、B,16GB/32GB,16GB/32GB/64GB,Source:Company,Fubon ResearchSee last page for disclaimer.,3,Taiwan Equity|Annual ReportApples business model hard to duplicateApples mobile device strategy can be defined as tight control over hardware,software andits distribution platform,coupled with continuous innovati
21、on and refinements both inhardware and software.After Apples success with the iPad and iPhone,an increasingnumber of industry participants have begun to adopt a similar strategy.However,wecontinue to believe that Apples mobile strategy will be difficult to replicate.Apple has designed its own CPU(AX
22、 series,system-on-chip),operating system(iOS)andis developing/maintaining its own software/media distribution platform(App Store,iTunesStore)and retail channel(Apple Store).This has historically led to limited fragmentation inthe ecosystem and higher profitability for Apple.Figure 2:IT business mode
23、l is changing,CPU,OS,Retailer,Source:Companies,Fubon ResearchOn the other hand,within the Wintel camp,the CPU,software and channel sales arecontrolled by Intel,Microsoft and several PC OEMs,respectively.Unfortunately,Microsoftand Intel garner 6070%of the profit,with PC OEMs only getting 1015%as they
24、 areproduct resellers.Now,the Android OS offers a good chance for PC and handset OEMs togenerate more profit in this evolving tech ecosystem.Also,we believe that PC OEMs willbecome more aggressive than smartphone vendors in the tablet market.See last page for disclaimer.,4,Taiwan Equity|Annual Repor
25、tFigure 3:Android and iOS redefine IT tempo,1998,2000,2001,2007,2009,2012,Cupcake,Honeycomb,Jelly Bean,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,iOS 1.0,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Companies,Fubon ResearchAs seen in Figure 2,Google Android and Apple iOS have updated a new version each yearsince the launch o
26、f Cupcake in 2009 and iOS in 2007.However,Windows released a newversion after a 45 year delay,and it is not entirely suitable for mobile devices.We knowthat mobile devices typically change hardware specifications(like panel resolution,APUperformance)and software/media development(new games,apps)each
27、 year,and we seethis as a disadvantage for Windows 8 in the fight with Apple and Google for the next fewyears.See last page for disclaimer.,5,Taiwan Equity|,Annual Report,Windows 8 a war Microsoft cannot afford to lose,Microsoft is being challenged by Apple and Google where end-users prefer a light
28、andeasy OS and are content with less powerful computing.Looking ahead,as user-interfaceintegration becomes more important,we think that Windows 8s new UI:Metro UI andWindows Store may give consumers a new experience.,There are several interesting key features,including:,1).Fast-launching apps from a
29、 tile-based Start screen,replacing the Windows Start menuwith a customizable,scalable full-screen view of apps.,2).Live tiles with up-to-date information from the apps,3).Touch-optimized browsing when using Internet Explorer 10.,Microsoft has adopted a touch-screen function for Windows 8,allowing fu
30、ll,touch-optimized browsing with any hardware including tablets,PCs and mobile devices.Windows 8 still lacks a sufficient number of apps,and developers are lukewarm due to itssmall market share.Thus,Microsoft needs to push its OEMs or its product lines to increasemarket share,which will then encoura
31、ge software companies to develop compatibleapplications in Windows 8 instead of iOS or Android.Otherwise,Windows 8 will onlydominate the PC market but lose share in mobile devices,which have twice the volume ofthe PC segment.,See last page for disclaimer.,work,No,6,Taiwan Equity|Annual ReportFigure
32、4:Smartphone OS comparison,Apple iOS 6,Google Android Jelly Bean,Microsoft Windows RT/Phone 8,Selection of appsCall features,650,000+Apps-decline a call with a canned SMS response-filter out calls from specified contacts,600,000+Apps-decline a call with a canned SMS response-filter out calls from sp
33、ecified contacts,100,000+Apps-filter out calls from specified contacts,-include a Do Not Disturb toggle,Voice command,-launch apps-pull data from various sources,-voice search and dictation-built-in speech recognition which supports offline,-place calls and send texts-search the web and launch apps,
34、-interface with car audio and navigation systems,Maps,-Apples own map-3D buildings-turn-by-turn navigation-traffic updates-points of interest,-Google maps-3D buildings-offline caching-turn-by-turn navigation-Street View and Compass Mode,-NAVTEQ maps-3D buildings-offline caching-turn-by-turn navigati
35、on-dynamic routing for public transit,Mobile payment,-Passbook in iOS6 will collect tickets,rewards cards,-Google Wallet includes mobile payments,deals,-Wallet allows users to store credit/debit cards,debit/credit cards,etc.into a single app.,rewards and offers.,and rewards/loyalty cards and to acce
36、ss deals.,-deliver updates and notifications,-limited mobile partners(Sprint in US,MasterCard)-It will make use of secure NFC elements stored,-limited devices with NFC,on SIM cards.,Browser sync,Browsing across all of iOS and OS X devices areunified by iCloud Tabs.,Tabs,bookmarks and search syncing
37、throughChrome Beta.,Media streamingSmarter Icons,-Airplay lets users stream music,photos,and videowirelessly from iOS devices to the Apple TV andAirPlay-enabled speakers.-only available within Apple product ecosystem-Badges would show up on an app when there arenew messages,emails or notifications.-
38、However,they dont display information.,-For Android devices,the hubs will be able to takeaudio and video streams,and split them out totelevisions and speakers.-Android employs widgets for real-time updates,which allows for a certain degree of customization.,-SmartGlass serves as the media streamingp
39、ortal to the Xbox and pushes content back andforth between the Xbox and Windows8/Windows Phone 8 devices.-Live Tiles display notifications and importantinformation.-Users are able to personalize the tiles into three,different sizes depending on how they want theinformation displayed.Source:Company,F
40、ubon ResearchSee last page for disclaimer.,7,Taiwan Equity|Annual ReportTablets a substitute,cannibalizing NBsWe are cutting our PC sales forecast again and now expect PC shipments to decline 3%in2013 to 340mn from 349mn in 2012.As tablet substitution over NBs is accelerating withcheaper Android tab
41、lets,Apple dropped the price level with the new iPad mini,andWindows 8 now supports the tablet form factor.We revise down our NB forecast to 194mn(down 4%YoY)and expect that the unit gap with tablets will be only 31mn units in 2013,and we expect tablets to outsell NBs by 2014.Combined NB and tablet
42、units are expectedto grow 12.2%in 2012 and 15.7%in 2013,suggesting that there is not a true demand issue,but rather an issue of substitution(tablets taking the place of NBs).Please see Figure 4Figure 5:Breakdown of global PC and tablet shipment forecasts(mn)500400300200100-,2010,2011DT,NB,2012 ETabl
43、et,2013 E,Source:Fubon ResearchWe forecast that the global tablet market size will reach 107mn units in 2012 and 163mnunits in 2013,up 62%and 52%YoY,respectively.We think that Apple will extend itsleadership in the tablet market in 201213.The companys sustained leadership in thetablet market is the
44、result of outstanding programming and form factor design.However,we think Windows 8 tablets will not directly compete with the moreconsumer-oriented tablets currently available,and Microsoft will create demand in thecommercial market.PC growth has slowed since the iPad and other tablets came onto th
45、emarket.See last page for disclaimer.,8,Taiwan Equity|Annual ReportWe expect to see several Windows 8-based PCs with tablet-like form factors in 2013.Weprefer form factor as a criteria,differentiating between X86-based clamshell NBs,andtablets as devices with detachable keyboards,which are ARM-based
46、.Figure 6:Breakdown of global PC and tablet shipment forecasts(mn)60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12 E,4Q12E,See last page for disclaimer.,Source:Fubon Research,NB,Tablet,9,Taiwan Equity|,Annual Report,iTV is coming in 4Q13?,iTV rumors have been circulating sinc
47、e 2010.However,we believe that Apples iTV willinclude Siri-powered voice control,the virtual assistant.It will also have gesturerecognition through a front-facing camera and suitable apps customized for thelarge-panel screen from the App Store.,Our panel analyst Calvin Shao projects that the main dr
48、iver for LCD TV panel demand interms of area will be size migration,and the increasing percentage of 50+TV panelshipments is driving the average TV size up.,Figure 7:iTV,Source:Companies,Fubon Research,Apple entered the living room with their long-awaited set-top box,code-named the iTV,in1Q07.The bo
49、x can stream video from a connected Mac/PC or directly from the internet.We believe that iTV will offer HD content because the components include a,high-definition panel,and according to industry sources,there are HDMI jacks on the backof the device.Other than that,there are rumored to be USB,Ethern
50、et,RCA and opticalaudio connectors on the unit.In addition,we expect 802.11 functionality,called“wirelesscomponent video,”to be included,so that users can watch movies,view photo slideshowsand play games all on HDTV through an iPhone or iPad,Furthermore,the iTV will be likely to offer apps through t
