《美股行业观点：标普500各板块前景0116.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美股行业观点：标普500各板块前景0116.ppt（30页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、,高盛集团,高盛集团,25,27,2013 年 1 月 16 日美国,美股行业观点,证券研究报告,2013 年标普 500 各板块前景全球经济增长的改善（2014 年美国 GDP 增速预测在趋势水平之上）使得更具周期性的配置策略更加有利。但政策与增长风险仍然存在（虽然程度较 2012 年更为缓和），因此我们建议避免纯周期性的配置。高配：原材料、工业和 IT 板块；低配：日常消费品、医疗保健和电信服务板块。我们尤其看好原材料板块，因其对增长的敏感性较高、市场预期下降，且股息收益率为 2.4%。,商业周期动态利好更加周期性的配置ISM 指数依然停滞在 50 附近的水平，但由于该指数已从长达三个月之
2、久的收缩状态复苏，且 2013 年初政策风险缓解，目前经济周期已经变得更为乐观。我们预计 2013 年各板块的表现将类似于经济扩张周期早期，在这一阶段 ISM 指数将升至 50 以上并向峰值靠近。,Stuart Kaiser,CFA(212)357-6308 高思庭(212)902-6781,高盛集团高配市场预期下降的周期性板块,我们建议高配原材料、工业和 IT 板块。分析师对这些板块的盈利预测调整信心一直较弱，而这三个板块的估值都不高。原材料板块尤其具有吸引力，因为它是对增长最为敏感的板块，表现明显落后于大市且股息收益率高于市场水平。低配估值较高的防御性板块我们建议低配日常消费品、医疗保健和
3、电信服务板块。这些板块都曾受益于经济的不确定性和投资者对股息收益率的偏好，因此这些板块目前的高估值可能会在增长与政策环境好转之时走低。基本面、估值和市场情绪利好我们高配的板块,Amanda Sneider,CFA(212)357-9860 高盛集团Ben Snider(212)357-1744 Peter Lewis(212)902-9693 高盛集团Rima Reddy(801)884-4794 高盛集团,Con.StaplesUtilitiesTelecom SvcsEnergyHealthcareCon.DiscretionaryFinancialsMaterialsIndustrial
4、sTechnology,16,17,19,GS S&P 500 Sector Factor Scores24UnderweightNeutralOverweight31333637,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,资料来源：高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。,高盛集团,高盛全球经济、
5、商品和策略研究,GStop-down2013EPSgrowth(%),TelecomSvcs,Con.,Discretionary,InfoTech,S&Pex-Fin,Energy,Con.Staples,HealthCare,Industrials,Materials,Financials,S&P500,Utilities,2,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美国,Sector overview:moderately cyclical as economy improvesRecent stability in reported US economic data along with ou
6、r US Economistsforecast for steady improvement in real GDP growth favors a cyclical bias in USsector allocation.However,some concerns about the vitality of peak margins andimportant,but less intense,policy and growth risks keep our recommended sectorweights short of outright cyclical.We recommend in
7、vestors position Overweight Materials,Info Tech and Industrials;Underweight Consumer Staples,Health Care and Telecom Services;and NeutralFinancials,Energy,Utilities and Consumer Discretionary.Exhibit 1:Goldman Sachs recommended sector weightsas of January 9,2013.Last rebalanced on November 28,2012.,
8、Sector Weightings,Alpha,Return,Goldman Sachs,Current,GS,GS,Recommended,S&P 500,Overweight/,Alpha,Total Return,SectorsInformation TechnologyIndustrialsMaterialsEnergyConsumer DiscretionaryFinancialsUtilitiesTelecom ServicesHealth CareConsumer StaplesS&P 500,Sector WeightingsOverweightNeutralUnderweig
9、ht,Weight19%104111116331211100%,Underweight300 bp2002000000(100)(300)(300)0 bp,YTD(3)bp1200000(4)1(2)bp,YTD2%3422312422%,3M(2)%66(1)57(3)(4)3(0)2%,6M4%1213101319(2)21149%,Source:FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.To inform our sector allocation decisions we incorporate our top-down foreca
10、sts for(1)earningsgrowth and(2)valuation,along with the markets(3)analyst sentiment and(4)option put-callskew.All factors are taken in the broader context of the US business cycle.Raw earnings growth favors Materials,Telecom Services,and Financials where weforecast at least 10%EPS growth in 2013.How
11、ever,strong Telecom performance suggestsinvestors already expect strong fundamentals and we recommend Underweight allocation.Exhibit 2:We forecast highest EPS growth in Materials and lowest for Staples in 20132013 Goldman Sachs forecast sector operating EPS growth as of January 9,201325,20,19,1615,1
12、05,10,9,7,7,6,5,4,4,3,2,0Source:FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,P/E,3,2013 年 1 月 16 日Exhibit 3:Goldman Sachs top-down and consensus bottom-up S&P 500 EPS forecasts,2011A-2014Eas of January 9,2013,美国,Contribution to EPS,Annual earnings growth rates,GS Top-Down EPS,Bottom-
13、up,GS Top-Down,Bottom-Up,2011A,2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2012E,2013E,2014E,2012E,2013E,2014E,Information TechnologyEnergyHealth CareIndustrialsConsumer StaplesConsumer DiscretionaryMaterialsUtilitiesTelecom ServicesS&P 500 ex-FinancialsFinancialsS&P 500 Operating EPS,$18141210993328116$96,
14、$20141211993328317$100,$2214131110104338819$107,$2315141210104339321$114,$191312109103328217$99,$2314141110114339320$113,$26151512111354310422$126,9%(5)3112(0)(7)(1)4394%,9%37425194166107%,7%564346195116%,6%(7)3714(3)(3)10283%,20%618781426712132114%,13%9812101615321111011%,Source:Compustat,FirstCall
15、,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Investors assign a relative valuation premium to the more defensive areas of themarket:Utilities,Consumer Staples and Telecom Services.Information Technology valuationappears lowest on a relative basis and screens below historical average on all six valuationme
16、trics.All other major S&P sectors with valuations below their 10-year average relative to themarket are within one standard deviation.That split supports a more cyclical bias in sectorallocation particularly in an improving US growth environment.The primary risk to being underweight those more defen
17、sive areas of the market is yield.Utilities(4.3%)and Telecom Services(4.8%)are the only sectors with dividend yields above 4%andConsumer Staples is the third highest at 3.0%.,Exhibit 4:Aggregate valuation metricsBottom-up consensus valuation,as of January 9,2013,Exhibit 5:Standard deviation vs.10-yr
18、 history(Z-Score)Bottom-up consensus,as of January 9,2013,EV/,EV/,Price/FCF PEG Div,NTM,EV/,EV/,Price/FCF,PEG Median,Sales EBITDA Book Yield Ratio Yield,Sales EBITDA Book Yield P/E Ratio Z-Score,S&P 500,1.5x,7.8x,2.2x,5.5%,1.3x 2.2%,13.2x,S&P 500,(0.2),(1.0),(0.8),(0.1)(0.7),0.2,(0.4),Telecom Servic
19、es,1.9,6.9,2.2,10.1,2.0,4.8,18.3,Info Tech,(1.2),(1.3),(0.3),(2.2)(1.4)(1.3),(1.3),Consumer Discretionary,1.5,8.0,3.6,5.5,1.1,1.6,15.8,Financials,NM,NM,(1.0),NM,0.0,(1.0),(1.0),Consumer Staples,1.3,9.9,3.8,5.3,1.8,3.0,15.6,Health Care,(0.8),(0.3),(0.4),(0.8)(0.3),1.1,(0.4),UtilitiesMaterials,NM1.5,8
20、.28.7,1.62.7,(0.6)3.8,4.31.9,4.32.4,14.514.1,EnergyIndustrials,(1.2)(0.6),(0.6)0.3,(1.0)1.5,1.41.2,0.40.0,0.5(0.4),(0.1)0.2,Industrials,1.8,9.7,2.8,5.5,1.2,2.4,13.9,Consumer Discretionary,2.1,0.5,2.3,(0.3)0.2,(0.7),0.3,Health Care,1.4,8.3,2.8,7.3,1.6,2.2,13.0,Utilities,NM,1.0,0.1,0.6,0.6,1.4,0.6,Inf
21、o TechFinancialsEnergy,2.2NM1.0,7.9NM5.2,3.41.11.9,8.0NM0.7,1.01.01.5,1.71.82.2,12.311.811.3,Telecom ServicesMaterialsConsumer Staples,(0.2)0.72.1,2.10.51.7,2.10.90.4,(0.1)1.61.5 0.2(0.5)1.6,(0.5)1.81.4,0.70.81.5,Source:Compustat,FirstCall,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,Source:Compustat,First
22、Call,and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,Our sector allocation views are based on a combination of earnings,valuation,forecast returnsand volatility.We also incorporate analyst sentiment as a proxy for expectations and positioning.In addition to those macro factors,below we highlight key industry
23、and micro themesidentified by our equity analysts that are likely to influence sector returns anddetermine relative performance of stocks within each sector.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Overweight,Neutral,Underweight,N/A,4,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美国,SectorInformationTechnologyMaterials,Themes to WatchConsumer Desktop to
24、MobileTransitionLean Semiconductor SupplyPlatform Dominance:Mobile&DataGlobal GrowthNon-Residential Construction,Favorite Sub-SectorsSemiconductors&Equipmente-CommerceChemicals,Goldman Sachs S&P 500 StockViewsConviction Buys:AAPL,ALTR,CSCO,EBAY,ORCL,QCOM,V,YHOOSells:ADBE,ADSK,INTC,KLAC,SYMC,WUConvic
25、tion Buys:EMN,MONSells:BMS,CLF,CF,X,Input Cost Benefits,IndustrialsConsumerDiscretionaryFinancialsUtilities,China GrowthNon-Residential ConstructionInventory Re-stockingPayroll Tax Impact on SpendingResilient Big-Ticket Spending PowerStronger Growth Outside USLow Interest Rates and NIMRegulatory Cla
26、rityBusiness Model Restructuring andReturn of Shareholder CapitalWeather Trends2013 Rate Cases(1H 2013),TransportationAerospaceAutomobiles&ComponentsHomebuildersLife InsuranceCredit CardsAlternative AssetManagersIndependent PowerProducers,Conviction Buys:BA,EXPD,PCP,RSGSells:COL,GD,RTNConviction Buy
27、s:CMCSA,DIS,DLTR,F,SBUX,WYNSells:COH,CVC,DISCA,GPC,GRMN,HAS,IGT,SPLSConviction Buys:AMT,C,DFS,PRU,RF,SPGSells:BK,CMA,CME,EQR,PGR,TMK,ZIONConviction Buys:NRG,NUSells:ED,FE,PNW,SCG,SO,Demand Outlook,Energy,US Oil Infrastructure Build:Brent WTI Price SpreadCompetitive Shale Oil/Gas PositioningCash Retu
28、rn to Shareholders,Refiners(Mid-Continent)Servicers(N.America),Conviction Buys:EOG,HAL,NBL,PXD,WMBSells:DO,FTI,VLO,“Advantaged”E&P,Health CareConsumerStaplesTelecomServices,Regulatory Reform:ConsolidationNew Product Cycle VisibilityM&A and Strategic RestructuringM&A and Capital DeploymentErosion of“
29、Defensive Premium”Global Growth ExposureUS Wireless Competition&CapitalIntensity,Pharma&BiotechN/A,Conviction Buys:BIIB,BMY,PKI,PFESells:BSX,HSP,HUM,JNJ,LH,LIFE,PDCO,PRGO,UHCO,VARConviction Buys:HSY,MDLZ,PM,WAGSells:BF.B,GIS,HNZ,KR,RAI,SWY,SYYConviction Buys:Sells:FTR,WIN,Spectrum Scarcity and Regul
30、ationProgramming Cost Inflation高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Technology,Financials,Industrials,Healthcare,Telecom,Svcs,Energy,Con.,Discretionary,Materials,Utilities,Con.Staples,35,5,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美国Our sector allocation framework is based on earnings,valuation,and forecast returns.Each of those factors is analyz
31、ed on two axes:our forecast and the past relationship between thesectors.In addition we incorporate analyst sentiment and options put-call skew as proxies forexpectations and positioning.Sectors are ranked 1 10 on each metric.This approach helps us judge the level of EPS growth,how likely it is base
32、d on history,and therelative attractiveness of one sector vs.another.For instance,8%Health Care earnings growthmay be more attractive than 10%Materials earnings growth based on their respective variabilityand correlation with one another.The stage of the business cycle also frames sector selection(E
33、xhibit 6).Our Overweight sectors screen the best across those metrics in aggregate,though thatwill not always be the case.However,those sectors are not as attractive on every metric.InfoTech has the lowest level of sentiment(a positive in our view)but is average in terms of earningsgrowth and foreca
34、st return.Valuation favors the Financials sector while our price return forecastis most positive for Industrials.Those conclusions are consistent with sector sensitivities asFinancials have the highest beta to the Fama-French(FF3)value factor while Industrials are thesecond most sensitive to growth
35、expectations after Materials.Exhibit 6:Earnings,valuation and sentiment favor our Overweight sectors but each sectorhas a different mix across our five metricsas of January 9,2013Factor Rank(10=best),Sector,P/E,Return Earnings Sentiment Volatility,Total Biz Cycle,GS View,TechnologyIndustrialsMateria
36、lsFinancialsCon.DiscretionaryHealthcareEnergyTelecom SvcsUtilitiesCon.Staples,89610754321,51069748321,53941821076,10981467352,9547823NA16,37363331272524191716,+-+-+,OverweightOverweightOverweightNeutralNeutralUnderweightNeutralUnderweightNeutralUnderweight,40,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,S&P 500 Sector Factor Sco
37、res302520151050Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.,VolatilitySentimentEarningsReturnP/E,6,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美国,Sector positioning:mutual and hedge fundsLarge cap core mutual fund allocations differ from our sector recommendations in a number ofkey areas.Those funds are underweight Technology sto
38、cks versus our overweight view and holdoverweight positions in Health Care and Consumer Staples against our underweightrecommendations in those areas.Hedge funds share our views in Materials,Health Care,Telecom Services and Consumer Staplesbut are underweight Info Tech relative to the Russell 3000.E
39、xhibit 7:Large Cap Mutual Funds Weightingsas of December 31,201245%Average Fund Weight,40%,S&P Weight,Goldman Sachs Weighting35%30%25%,20%15%10%5%0%,75th%ile25th%ile,Information,Consumer,Telecom,Consumer,S&P Weight,-5%,Technology19.0,Industrials10.1,Materials3.6,Financials15.6,Discretionary11.5,Ener
40、gy11.0,Utilities3.4,Services3.1,Health Care12.0,Staples10.6,Average MutualFund Weight,-10%,17.4,10.4,3.9,16.6,12.6,10.0,1.5,1.8,13.6,12.1,Goldman Sachs WeightingGoldman Sachs vs S&P 500Overweight/(Underweight)Percent difference OW/(UW),22.0300 bp16%,12.1200 bp20%,5.6200 bp55%,15.60 bp0%,11.50 bp0%,1
41、1.00 bp0%,3.40 bp0%,2.1(100)bp(33)%,9.0(300)bp(25)%,7.6(300)bp(28)%,Overweight/UnderweightSource:Lipper,Lionshares via FactSet and Goldman Sachs ECS Research.Exhibit 8:Estimated hedge fund positioning:long,short and net vs.the Russell 3000as of September 30,2012,Aggregate Asset Allocation,vs.Russell
42、 3000,vs.Mutual Funds,Long,Short,Net,Mutual,Net,Portfolio,Portfolio,Allocation,Net,Russell 3000,Sector,Fund,Sector,Sector,($834 bil),($434 bil),Difference Weighting,Weighting,Tilt,Weighting,Tilt,Consumer Discretionary 19.5%,17.6%,191 bp,21.5%,12.8%,879 bp,12.5%,906 bp,Information TechnologyFinancial
43、sEnergyIndustrialsMaterialsHealth CareConsumer StaplesTelecom ServicesUtilitiesTotal,18.113.510.810.66.710.95.92.21.8100.0,18.614.09.410.44.713.27.02.52.4100.0,(56)(54)13721198(236)(111)(33)(56)0,17.512.912.310.98.88.34.71.81.2100.0,18.916.49.610.93.911.69.62.83.5100.0,(141)(347)267(3)493(332)(489)(
44、96)(232)0,17.017.810.210.66.011.68.63.42.4100.0,52(487)21325281(329)(384)(154)(122)0,Source:Lipper,Lionshares via FactSet,IDC and Goldman Sachs ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,2013 年 1 月 16 日,美国,Historical perspectives on sector performanceSince 1974 extended periods of sector outperformance(winning s
45、treaks)of more than5 years have been rare.Consumer Discretionary posted strong risk-adjusted returnsin 2012 but five straight years outperforming the market may be a hurdle in 2013.Consumer Discretionary shares outperformed the S&P 500 for the fifth year in a row by nearly800 bp in 2012.Last year al
46、so marked the end of a five-year run of under-performance for theFinancials sector,which beat the S&P by 1280 bp.Financials,Consumer Discretionary and Health Care produced the best risk-adjustedperformance in 2012 with Sharpe ratios above 1.5.The drivers of returns were fairly consistentacross secto
47、rs:nine of ten sectors benefitted from P/E multiple expansion while seven sectorshad positive earnings revisions(Materials,Consumer Staples and Energy all suffered fromreduced earnings expectations).Exhibit 9:Each sector had positive total return in 2012 but risk-adjusted returns were notas consiste
48、ntly positiveas of January 9,2013Contribution,Total Return Price Return Dividends Valuation Earnings,Volatility,Sharpe Ratio,FinancialsCon.DiscretionaryTelecom SvcsHealth CareS&P 500IndustrialsMaterialsInfo.TechnologyCon.StaplesEnergyUtilities,28.8%23.918.317.916.015.315.014.810.84.61.3,26.3%21.912.
49、515.213.412.512.213.17.52.3(2.9),2.6%2.15.82.72.62.92.71.73.22.34.2,18.4%13.75.712.110.07.316.62.412.910.0(5.6),7.9%8.16.83.13.45.1(4.4)10.7(5.3)(7.7)2.7,17.913.912.710.912.815.117.716.39.217.59.9,1.61.71.41.61.31.00.80.91.20.30.1,Source:Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Extended winning and losing
50、streaks are relatively rare at the sector level and thatprecedent could be a headwind for Discretionary and Telecom Services stocks in 2013.Since 1975 there have been six cases each of a sector beating the market for five ormore consecutive years and five cases of a sector lagging the S&P 500 for th
