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1、Worldwide FPD Market and Technology Outlooka special presentation for 2011中国（广州）平板显示产业发展高峰论坛,Bing ZhangResearch Director,DisplaySearch,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,FPD&LCD TV Panel Today Capacities&TechnologiesSupply-Demand,FPD&LCD TV Panel Today Four Key Initiatives,3,Market Emerg
2、ing market surpassing the developed market.,Technology,End User User-friendly interface(touch screen)Smart Devices(Smart Phone,Smart TV,Tablet PC.),New Momentum Replacement Cycle Green concept(LED,EnergyStar)New User Experience(3D)New Business Model(Alliance,Cell business),New Tech.,Cost&Premium,Use
3、r Acceptance,Yield&Stability,Source:Quarterly Worldwide FPD Shipment&Forecast Report,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,4,The Challenge:TFT LCD Profit Margins,In past cycles,panel makers earned 20%in net profits at the peak.In the last peak,earnings only reached 7%.Panel makers are now s
4、eeking ways to increase margins,including new technologies for high-end panels,more integration,new strategies,and new business models.,Source:Quarterly FPD Supply Demand and Capital Spending Report,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,Capacities&Technologies,6,Content remains the property
5、 of DisplaySearch.,LCD Capacities Shares,7,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,New a-Si TFT LCD Fab 2011-2013,The outlook for new a-Si fabs targeting large area LCDs is currently weak.The move to China by foreign makers continues to be delayed,this time due to weak macro conditions.Multip
6、le LCD makers have half full G8 fabs(e.g.LGD P9,AUO L8B,CMI Fab 8,Panasonic Himeji)that were planning on expanding in 2012,but now delayed.Some considering using the space for IGZO/AMOLED or LTPS rather than a-Si.,Source:Q211 DisplaySearch Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand&Capital Spending Report,all data
7、 available in Excel pivot tables.,Note:Only show New Fabs here,not showing expansion phases of current fabs.,8,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,New LTPS&IGZO Fab 2011-2013,In addition to Sharp Kameyama 2 and LGD potential P9 IGZO for AMOLED fabs,multiple other panel makers are Preparin
8、g IGZO capacity.Rather than dedicating a full line,some are developing IGZO and may run mass production IGZO in parallel on the same line with a-Si production.,Other Potential LTPS or IGZO Investments in the Planning Stage,Source:Q211 DisplaySearch Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand&Capital Spending Report
9、,all data available in Excel pivot tables.,Note:Only show New Fabs here,not showing expansion phases of current fabs.,9,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,New AMOLED Fab 2011-2013,SMD will account for 98%of AMOLED sales in 2011($2.57B)!SMD fiercely protecting its number 1 position by exp
10、anding capacity much faster than any competitors possibly could,expanding flexible small/med production and adopting LITI patterning for full RGB Super High Resolution AMOLEDs.The rumored Sony-Toshiba-Hitachi JV would have substantial AMOLED know-how,but would want a new fab for volume production.,S
11、ource:Q211 DisplaySearch Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand&Capital Spending Report,all data available in Excel pivot tables.,Note:Table shows backend,organic process fabs;not array fabs.Show all future forecast fabs 30%,but not currently running fabs or expansion phases of current fabs.AMOLED glass size i
12、s of backend process.In most cases shown,TFT mother glass is cut down to smaller size for evaporation in the OLED process.,4.3-8”,2.2-3.5”,15-23.6”,8.9-16.4”,26-37”,18.5-21.5”,16:10,26-55”,4.3-8”,2.2-3.5”,8.9-16.4”,8.9-16.4”,18.5-23.6”,26-55”,Touch ITO Sensor LTPS AMOLED,21:9,TFT LCD Maker Productio
13、n Strategy Changes,ProductionShift,10,Source:Quarterly TFT LCD Production Strategy Report,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,Copper(Cu)Array Process On Panel for TV,4K*2K(Pixel smaller and reliability stable)AUO 65”Lenticular QFHD 3D:QFHD for 2D(3840 x2160)HD for 3D(1360 x760)Low Cross T
14、alk Good for 3D Effective Date of Energy Star 5.3 will be Sep 30,2011 Better Transmittance Rate(Low Resistivity,around 60%of AI),11,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,Stereoscopic 3D Technology Comparison,12,Definition of a good 3D TV3D Technology Comparison,Reference:Q111 Quarterly LED
15、Backlight Report,Source:Quarterly TFT LCD Product Roadmap Report,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,3D LCD TV Panel Shipment Forecast,Copyright 2011 DisplaySearch All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential,13,PR:4%SG:6%,PR:10.9%SG:10%,Panel Makers 4Kx2K(UD:Ultra-High Resolution)Plan,Copy
16、right 2011 DisplaySearch All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential,14,High Resolution For Smart Phone&Tablet PC,15,For distribution to China FPD&HDTV Conference attendees only.Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,PPI=Pixel Per Inch,Low Cost Direct-Type LED,16,For distribution to China FPD
17、&HDTV Conference attendees only.Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,Concept:Replace CCFL Model by low cost LED models without changing current mechanical structure of CCFL TV Samsung:Co-development of Samsung LCD(Cell&Backlight),Samsung Cheil(Optical film),Samsung LED(LED).Target:break in
18、to 32”HD volume zone of CCFL,and make leverage to faster the LED penetration.,AMOLED Advantages&Issues,AMOLED Advantages Simple Structure/Slim type Low Power Consumption High contrast,high brightness Fast Response Time High Color Gamut Wider View Angle Bendable 3D image without sacrifices,AMOLED Pro
19、blems Backplane technology 10-12 Photomasks including backplane Huge investment:SMD AMOLED G5.572K/M=US$2.2B=TFT LCD Gen690K/M Unready Supply Chain Immature process&equipments High Resolution Difficulties,17,Source:Quarterly TFT LCD Product Roadmap Report,Content remains the property of DisplaySearc
20、h.,Supply&Demand,Annual Supply Growth v.s.Demand Growth,19,2008 Demand Crash due to financial storm,oversupply,Demand Growth=Supply Growth:1H06:Oversupply2H06:Shortage2006=Balance,Demand Growth Supply Growth:2005&2007 Shortage,2009:Demand Recovery.Shortage,2010-2011:Demand Recovery not strong enough
21、,over-supply happened and continue,Before 2009:Supply Capacity v.s.Demand Growth From 2010:Capacity Utilization v.s.Inventory Management,2010-2012:When mature,capacity utilization and inventory are keys,Source:Quarterly FPD Supply Demand and Capital Spending Report,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,B,Thank you!,Content remains the property of DisplaySearch.,
