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1、,Company,GlobalMarketsResearch,Asia ChinaTechnology Software&Services,23 August 2010China InternetInsightsChina e-commerce:Logistically speaking,FITT ResearchFundamental,Industry,Thematic,Thought LeadingDeutsche Bank Company ResearchsInvestment Policy Committee hasdeemed this work F.I.T.T.for invest
2、orsseeking differentiated ideas.Our ChinaInternet insights series is designed toprovide timely identification of emergingtrends that are likely to drive furthergrowth and change.In this report,we notonly evaluate the importance oflogistics specific to e-commercefulfillment,but also the logisticalcha
3、llenges that traditional players face ingoing online.Fundamental:Consumer-focused e-commerce the next major chapter inChinas Internet growth storyIndustry:Logistics a determinant in usersatisfaction,e-commerce successThematic:Defining days for logistics;achievement of e-commerce dominanceever more d
4、ifficultThought-Leading:Verticals to deepenand broaden;market to consolidateSector strategy:Downgrading Baidu,Tencent e-commerce as a bolt-onservice,not idealPEG-based valuations;risks related tomacro,policy,network deployment,Alan Hellawell IIIResearch Analyst(+852)2203,Alex YaoResearch Analyst(+86
5、)21 3896,Jeetil PatelResearch Analyst(+1)415 617-,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject
6、 companies.DeutscheBank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firmmay have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making the
7、ir investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)007/05/2010,2011E,2011E,Hold,25.2,34.3,23.6,Buy,Buy,7.8,Defining days,Thematic:ever more difficult for,Asia ChinaTechnology Software&Services23 August 2010,China Internet InsightsChina e-commerce:Logistica
8、lly speakingAlan Hellawell III Alex Yao Jeetil PatelResearch Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst(+852)2203 6240(+86)21 3896 2831(+1)415 617-,FITT ResearchTop picksA Limited(1688.HK),HKD15.20Companies featuredA Limited(1688.HK),HKD15.202009A 2010EP/E(x)58.4 45.5EV/EBITDA(x)47.8 35.3Price/book(x
9、)15.9 10.9Tencent(0700.HK),HKD148.102009A 2010EP/E(x)30.4 30.2,EV/EBITDA(x),22.1,20.9,16.0,Fundamental,Industry,Thematic,Thought LeadingDeutsche Bank Company Researchs Investment Policy Committee has deemedthis work F.I.T.T.for investors seeking differentiated ideas.Our China Internetinsights series
10、 is designed to provide timely identification of emerging trends thatare likely to drive further growth and change.In this report,we not only evaluatethe importance of logistics specific to e-commerce fulfillment,but also thelogistical challenges that traditional players face in going online.Fundame
11、ntal:Consumer-focused e-commerce the next major chapter inChinas Internet growth storyChinese consumers are in the midst of a major behavioral shift,migrating an ever-increasing amount of their buying(and selling)online.We expect B2C and C2Ctransaction volumes to grow at a 42%CAGR from 2009-14,hitti
12、ng RMB1,523bni.e.7.2%of total domestic retail sales.Industry:Logistics a determinant in user satisfaction,e-commerce successLogistics is a key element in e-commerce and will necessitate deep investmentand expertise,even from Chinas most dominant Internet names.E-commercenames are adopting one of two
13、 approaches to address logistics:platform or self-build.We prefer platform(in which logistics are largely outsourced)as it is morecost-efficient and scalable,allowing players to gain business scale quickly.logistics;achievement of e-commercedominanceTaobaos large scale has allowed it to define the r
14、ecent evolution of Chinasdelivery system to its own benefit.Other B2Cs major self-build cycles also putpressure on Baidu and Tencent to commit further to their e-commerce initiatives.Thought-Leading:Verticals to deepen and broaden;market to consolidateWe expect several emerging B2C verticals(profile
15、d herein)to aggressively expandtheir product categories to become comprehensive online shopping centers as themarket consolidates.We believe logistics will help determine future beneficiaries.,Price/book(x)23.0Baidu(BIDU.OQ),USD82.172009AP/E(x)46.3EV/EBITDA(x)33.5Price/book(x)20.5Ctrip(CTRP.OQ),USD4
16、2.102009AP/E(x)32.2EV/EBITDA(x)24.2Price/book(x)11.8,12.42010E57.143.023.82010E46.433.311.4,8.3Hold2011E37.527.614.6Hold2011E34.622.68.8,Sector strategy:Downgrading Baidu,Tencent e-commerce as a bolt-onservice,not idealJudging from other markets,from the US to Japan,the most successful e-commerce en
17、tities are pure-play e-commerce companies.Baidu(downgraded toHold)is positioned at the gateway to this growing economy as SMEs purchasekeywords to build profiles.We are,however,cautious on its own e-commerceinitiatives(Youa and Le Ku Tian).We also downgrade Tencent to Hold.Although e-commerce is int
18、egral to Tencents“one-stop Internet service platform”strategy,we think Tencents e-commerce business suffers from 1)a lack of brandrecognition,leading to insufficient traffic needed to attract a large number ofsellers,2)Taobaos first-mover advantage,and 3)a lack of managementresources,likely due to t
19、he relatively low-margin profile of e-commerce.PEG-based valuations;risks related to macro,policy,network deploymentWe value our Internet universe by applying a PEG ratio to a three-year EPS CAGR,as this balances the valuation multiple against normalized growth.Upside/downside risks include a strong
20、er-/weaker-than-expected macro,tightened/loosened policies and more/less ambitious network deployment.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other ve
21、ndors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.DeutscheBank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firmmay have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consi
22、der this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)007/05/2010,23 August 2010Page 2,Software&Services China Internet InsightsTable of ContentsExecutive summary.3Outlook.3Valuation.4Risks.4Introduction to
23、B2C,C2C.5A discussion of growth prospects,a look at logistics,and a comparison of models.5China e-commerce in a nutshell.7First,a quick review of the Chinese Internet.7Implications for listed players.7Worlds largest Internet population,but under-penetrated and under-monetized.8E-commerce:rapid growt
24、h,structural change.9China e-commerce in context:a comparison with the US experience.15Applying the US experience to China.17China C2C and B2C e-commerce players.18New e-commerce directions:group-buy.20Focus:logistics as competitive advantage.22Key takeaways.22Implications for listed players.22Logis
25、tics:an integral part of the e-commerce value chain.23Logistics:not a bottleneck to e-commerce.26Logistics:a major determinant of future beneficiaries.28Platform and self-build:two approaches to solving the logistics issue.30Content delivery networks an important element in e-commerce logistics.31Fo
26、cus:the logistics of going click-and-mortar.33Key takeaways.33Implications for listed players.33China retail market in context and motivation behind selling online.34Learning from the US precedent.35Applying US learning to the Chinese example.40Click-and-mortar a growing threat to e-tailers in China
27、?.41Company Section.49A Limited.50Baidu.56Ctrip.68Tencent.76This report changes ratings,price targets,and/or estimates for several companiesunder coverage.For a detailed listing of these changes,see page 7,figure 3.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,23 August 2010,Software and 2)market consolidation.We beli
28、eve logisticswill play an important role in both trends.We view the e-commerce initiatives of some companies in our listed universe with greaterskepticism.Only those companies with a mastery of logistics as part of their core valueproposition will succeed in Chinas e-commerce race,in our view.Both B
29、aidu and Tencent have adopted an asset-light marketplace approach to their directexposure to e-commerce(they host and organize an online marketplace where third-partysellers conduct business from their virtual storefronts).Both companies have minimalinvolvement in logistics.We believe the key to suc
30、cess of this approach is achievingmeaningful scale,which neither company so far has been able to do.Having seen limited success in winning business from Taobao,we expect Baidu and Tencentmoreover to face increasing competitive pressure from pure-play e-commerce platforms(360buy,Vancl,Taobao,etc).As
31、a result,we believe it will be difficult for either company toachieve a meaningful scale and monetize traffic.We do not expect either company tomaterially benefit from its direct exposure to e-commerce in the next three years.We believe Alibaba has the greatest potential in Chinas fast-growing e-com
32、merce market.We think the enormous transaction volume on Taobao paves the way for A tocreate a linkage between Taobao sellers and Alibaba members.The linkage is likely to bemonetized at a later stage,in our view.We believe traditional Chinese retailers are still at an early stage of transitioning fr
33、om brick-and-mortar to click-and-mortar and are unlikely to pose a significant threat to pure-play onlineretailers.,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page 3,23 August 2010Page 4,Software&Services China Internet InsightsValuationOur basket of Chinese non-gaming Internet companies is currently trading at 0.9
34、-1.1x PEGand 22-41x 2011E PE.We believe Chinas Internet sector is fairly valued at current levels,compared to its historical trading range.Although we maintain our pre-existing PEG multiples on both bames,we downgrade Tencentand Baidu to Hold as we believe:The unique forces that substantially reacce
35、lerated revenue growth for both companies inthe past few quarters are unlikely to recur.E-commerce is not likely to become a revenue driver for either company in the next twoto three years,partly due to their lack of involvement in logistics.We believe that,in the short term,both companies revenue g
36、rowth should once again bedriven by regular fundamental drivers(traffic,usage,number of users,etc)and the growthpatterns of both companies should revert to their historical trajectories.As such,we believethe valuations of Tencent and Baidu should revert to 2006-07 multiples on a PE basis.We utilize
37、PEG as our primary valuation methodology to value Chinese Internet companies aswe believe it best balances valuation multiples against normalized growth.We value theInternet universe presented in this report by applying a PEG ratio of 1.0-1.1x to a three-yearEPS CAGR.In addition,we cross check our i
38、mplied PE multiples by referencing the companiescompetitive positioning,future earnings potential,historical forward PE valuations,comparable peer PE valuations and DCF.RisksWe believe investors need to be aware of the following key risks when investing in Chinesenon-gaming Internet names:Change of
39、macro environmentGovernment policiesE-commerce user adoptionMonetization of e-commerce productsDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,23 August 2010,Software e-commerce is less of a core activity for to Tencent,so we downgrade onvaluationAcross our listed universe,we find the greatest relative potential in A.Al
40、thoughthis listed part of the Alibaba Group is more focused on business-to-business(B2B)e-commerce,its increasingly intimate integration with unlisted sister company Taobao brings itinto a more crucial upstream role for B2C and C2C.We present evidence of Alibaba Groupsdominance in e-commerce in Figu
41、re 1.Figure 1:Key products market share matrix(2009),Baidu,Alibaba Group,Tencent,C2C+B2CB2BOnline paymentIMBrand adsSearch adsOnline games,0.3%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%70.8%0.0%,83.8%64.3%49.6%10.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%,9.9%0.0%20.0%70.7%10.9%0.6%27.6%,Source:Deutsche Bank with input from iResearch,Analysys Internati
42、onalMeanwhile,we have relatively muted expectations for Baidus e-commerce efforts in Youaand Le Ku Tian per se.We instead believe that as e-commerce grows as part of the Internet,Baidus reliance upon small and medium-sized enterprises will benefit the company as these,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page
43、 5,23 August 2010,Software&Services China Internet Insightscompanies spend more aggressively to show more prominently in online search results.These assumptions,however,are largely subsumed in our valuation of Baidu,which wedowngrade to Hold.Meanwhile,we downgrade Tencent on both valuation grounds a
44、nd inthe belief that,while the company has a promising future in areas such as social networking,games and other forms of communications,e-commerce is unlikely to become a meaningfulpart of the companys revenues.In Figure 2 we compare the positioning of Chinas threeInternet powerhouses,both within a
45、n e-commerce context and more broadly.Figure 2:Key products matrix(2010),Baidu,Alibaba Group,Tencent,C2CB2CB2BOnline PaymentIMBrand ads,YouaLe Ku TianBaifubaoBaidu HiBaidu News,Baidu,TaobaoTaobao MAlipayAli WangwangYahoo China,Taobao Tianxia,PaipaiQQ MallTenpayQQ,Entertainment,Baidu Finance,Search a
46、dsOnline VideoCommunitySafety serviceBrowserDirectory siteChinese Input Method,BaiduQiyiBaidu Postbar,Baidu ZhidaoUnder developmentUnder,Baidu IME,Yahoo ChinaTaojianghu,KoubeiTao Directory,SosoQqliveQzoneQQ DoctorTT BrowserQQ DirectoryQQ IME,Editor(IME),Mobile InternetOnline games,Mobile search,mobi
47、le IMECooperation in MMO,ACG,Mobile Taobao,mobile Alipay Mobile QQ portal,mobile QQ,mobile Qzone,mobile game,mobile mini-blog,mobileTenpay,mobile IME,etcMMO,ACG,mini casual,mini casualSource:Deutsche Bank,company dataWe summarize in Figure 3 major changes in recommendation,price target,etc.,that we
48、areintroducing with the launch of this report:Figure 3:Major changes in recommendations and price targets,Company,Ticker,OLD rec,New rec,Old 2010,New 2010,Old 2011,New 2011,Old TP,New TP,EPS,EPS,EPS,EPS,TencentBaiduAlibabaCtrip,0700.HKBIDU.OQ1688.HKCTRP.OQ,BuyBuyBuyHold,HoldHoldBuyHold,RMB4.29RMB8.8
49、9RMB0.29RMB6.18,RMB4.28RMB9.76RMB0.29RMB6.16,RMB5.59RMB13.45RMB0.38RMB8.58,RMB5.48RMB14.87RMB0.39RMB8.26,HK$160US$80HK$19.79US$40,HK$155US$86HK$20.39US$39,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,Page 6,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,23 August 2010,Software&Services China Internet InsightsChina e-commerce in anut
50、shellFirst,a quick review of the Chinese InternetMany investors have already seen various versions of the impressive growth statisticssurrounding the rise of the Internet in China enumerated below.Within this still-vibrantgrowth environment,we see particularly dynamic growth and change within the e-
