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1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Global Emerging MarketsLatin AmericaConsumer,PeriodicalLatam ConsumerMonthly,Date6 November 2012Jose Yordan,November 201254%of our coverage rose in USD in October(while 65%outperformed)In October,14 out of 26 stocks(54%)in our coverage universe had a positiveperformance
2、 in USD terms(compared with 100%in September);while 65%outperformed their respective market(versus 89%in September).Overall,foodstocks underperformed,falling 2.3%on average(Bimbos 6.3%decline waspartially offset by BRFSs+4.0%).Meanwhile,retail stocks were flat but withwide divergences across the var
3、ious names we cover(AMAR3 rose 18.1%while Cencosud and B2W fell 10.3%and 15.8%respectively).Beverages ekedout a small gain,rising 0.5%on average(led by AKObs+9.5%)while HPCstocks were once again the best performers as a group(up 1.9%on average).,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Renata CoutinhoResearch An
4、alyst(+55)11 2113-Rebeca Sanchez SarmientoResearch Associate(+1)212 250-,Grain prices continue their retreat as supply visibility improvesSince the end of June wheat,corn and soybean rallied as much as 27.6%,23.6%and 17%respectively(at their peak).But as the harvest winds down,the market is growing
5、more comfortable with availability(although we believedemand destruction within the livestock sector remains uncertain),and as aresult,most grains saw a noticeable(albeit small)correction in late Septemberand October.Although LatAm CSD producers have seen some relief fromfalling sugar prices,we cont
6、inue to believe the outlook for total sweetenercosts remains challenging.Macroeconomic trends are mix when it comes to the LatAm consumerConsumer confidence is up again in October in Brazil(consistent with a steadyunemployment rate)while retail sales figures indicate moderate recovery;nevertheless,t
7、he recent increase in food inflation continues to put in questionthe timing of a consumer recovery.The Mexican consumer remains inrelatively good shape,as evidenced by rising consumer confidence and robustretail sales but a sharp spike in food inflation combined with the disappearanceof pre-election
8、 spending by political parties and a deterioration in remittances(see below)raise some yellow flags,in our view.Mexican remittances in negative territory(for second straight month)For the second consecutive month,Mexicans with relatives abroad receivedfewer pesos than the comparable year-ago period.
9、October remittances fell20.2%in USD terms(or 20.9%in peso terms),a sizable step back versus thepositive growth seen in 1H12 but not surprising given the Mexican pesosrecent strength(while dollar remittances typically rise after above-averagepeso devaluation,as remitters see a good“trading”opportunit
10、y,the reverseholds true when the peso appreciates).Brazilian protein exports:poultry prices up in USD terms for first time this yearOctobers Secex(Brazils Secretariat of Foreign Trade)release points tocontinued softness in U.S.dollar pricing for Brazils export oriented proteincompanies.This is parti
11、cularly true for pork and beef exporters although it isworth highlighting that this months data point marks the first positive YoYincrease for Brazilian poultry export prices since December 2011.Meanwhile,export volumes remain fairly robust,especially for pork and beef exporters,thereby providing a
12、positive offset to the current weak pricing environment._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank a
13、nd subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor i
14、n making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,6 November 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyTable Of ContentsDB Recent Related Research.5We downgraded Concha y Toro to Hold.5DB downgraded Campari to Hold and Treasury Wine Estate
15、s to Sell.5DB LatAm Consumer Coverage Summaries.7Global Peer Valuation Tables.11Historical Valuation Multiples.17LatAm Food stocks.17LatAm Beverage stocks.19LatAm Household&Personal Care stocks.21LatAm Retail stocks.22Input Cost Tracker.26Beverage raw materials:sugar and PET continue to provide reli
16、ef,but corn syrupoutlook remains challenging.26Better supply side visibility has stabilized grain prices.27Other inputs still declining.29Brazil Protein Update.30Poultry export prices(in USD terms)finally up YoY in October.30Update on Brazilian,Mexican and Chilean Consumers.31Brazil:an improving pic
17、ture,but constrained by food inflation.31Mexican consumer in good shape,with some factors to monitor.33Chilean consumer also in good shape with some yellow flags.35,Page 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,6 November 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyTable of ExhibitsFigure 1:Recent LatAm Consumer Resea
18、rch.5Figure 2:Other Related Global Research.5Figure 3:Highlighted Stock ListDB-Covered LatAm Food and Beverage Companies.7Figure 4:Highlighted Stock ListDB-Covered LatAm Retail and HPC Companies.8Figure 5:DB-Covered LatAm Consumer Valuation Summary.9Figure 6:DB-Covered LatAm Consumer Share Price Per
19、formance Summary.10Figure 7:GLOBAL COMMODITY FOODValuation(LatAm names in bold).11Figure 8:GLOBAL PACKAGED FOODValuation(LatAm names in bold).12Figure 9:GLOBAL BEVERAGESValuation(LatAm names in bold).13Figure 10:GLOBAL FOOD RETAILValuation(LatAm names in bold).14Figure 11:GLOBAL NON-FOOD RETAILValua
20、tion(LatAm names in bold).15Figure 12:GLOBAL COSMETICS,HPCValuation(LatAm names in bold).16Figure 13:Brasil Foods 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.17Figure 14:Brasil Foods 12-Month Forward P/E.17Figure 15:Grupo Bimbo 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.17Figure 16:Grupo Bimbo 12-Month Forward P/E.17Figure 17:Gruma
21、 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.18Figure 18:Gruma:SOTP Analysis.18Figure 19:JBS SA 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.18Figure 20:JBS SA 12-Month Forward Price/BV.18Figure 21:Minerva 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.18Figure 22:Minerva 12-Month Forward Price/BV.18Figure 23:AmBev 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.19Figure 24
22、:AmBev 12-Month Forward P/E.19Figure 25:Andina 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.19Figure 26:Andina 12-Month Forward P/E.19Figure 27:Arca Continental 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.19Figure 28:Arca Continental 12-Month Forward P/E.19Figure 29:CCU 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.20Figure 30:CCU 12-Month Forward P/E.
23、20Figure 31:Coke Femsa 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.20Figure 32:Coke Femsa 12-Month Forward P/E.20Figure 33:Concha y Toro 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.20Figure 34:Concha y Toro 12-Month Forward P/E.20Figure 35:Femsa Stub 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.21Figure 36:Femsa SOTP Analysis.21Figure 37:Hypermarcas
24、12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.21Figure 38:Hypermarcas 12-Month Forward Price/BV.21Figure 39:KCM 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.21Figure 40:KCM 12-Month Forward P/E.21Figure 41:Natura 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.22Figure 42 Natura 12-Month Forward P/E.22Figure 43:B2W 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.22Figure 44:B2
25、W 12-Month Forward PBV.22Figure 45:CBD 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.22Figure 46:CBD-Pao de Acucar 12-Month Forward P/E.22Figure 47:Cencosud 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.23Figure 48:Cencosud 12-Month Forward P/E.23Figure 49:Cia Hering 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.23Figure 50:Cia Hering 12-Month Forward P/E
26、.23Figure 51:Liverpool 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.23Figure 52:Liverpool 12-Month Forward P/E.23Figure 53:Lojas Americanas 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.24Figure 54:Lojas Americanas 12-Month Forward P/E.24Figure 55:Lojas Renner 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.24Figure 56:Lojas Renner 12-Month Forward P/E.24F
27、igure 57:Magazine Luiza 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.24Figure 58:Magazine Luiza 12-Month Forward P/E.24Figure 59:Marisa Lojas 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.25Figure 60:Marisa Lojas 12-Month Forward P/E.25,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,6 November 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyTable of Exhibits(
28、Continued)Figure 61:Raia Drogasil 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.25Figure 62:Raia Drogasil 12-Month Forward P/E.25Figure 63:Walmex 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.25Figure 64:Walmex 12-Month Forward P/E.25Figure 65:Sugar#11(US/lb).26Figure 66:Mexican Sugar(US/lb).26Figure 67:LME Aluminium(US/lb).26Figure 68:
29、PET Bottle Resin(US/lb).26Figure 69:US Wheat(USD/bushel).27Figure 70:US Corn(USD/bushel).27Figure 71:US Soybeans(USD/bushel).27Figure 72:US Soybean Meal(USD/ton).27Figure 73:Brazilian Live Cattle Prices(R$/).28Figure 74:Brazil Corn(R$/60 Kg sack).28Figure 75:Brazil Soybeans(R$/60 Kg sack).28Figure 7
30、6:Brazil Soybean Meal(R$/ton).28Figure 77:NBSK Market Pulp(USD/Mt).29Figure 78:Cotton#2(USD/lb).29Figure 79:Brent Crude($/Bbl).29Figure 80:Brazilian Beef Exports.30Figure 81:Brazilian Poultry Exports.30Figure 82:Brazilian Pork Prices.30Figure 83:BrazilRetail Sales by Category.31Figure 84:BrazilConsu
31、mer Confidence(YoY change).31Figure 85:BrazilUnemployment Rate.31Figure 86:BrazilInflation.31Figure 87:BrazilYoY%Change in Consumer Credit.32Figure 88:BrazilCredit Default Rates.32Figure 89:BrazilLoan Spreads.32Figure 90:BrazilPersonal Loans(Interest Rate vs Maturity).32Figure 91:MexicoSSS by Catego
32、ry.33Figure 92:MexicoConsumer Confidence(YoY change).33Figure 93:MexicoRemittances YoY%Ch.(in Pesos,using monthly average FX).33Figure 94:MexicoRemittances YoY%Change(in USD).33Figure 95:MexicoUnemployment Rate.33Figure 96:MexicoInflation.33Figure 97:MexicoYoY%Change in Consumer Credit.34Figure 98:M
33、exico%of Consumer NPLs.34Figure 99:ChileRetail Durable vs.Non-Durable Sales Growth Rate.35Figure 100:ChileConsumer Confidence(YoY change).35Figure 101:ChileUnemployment Rate.35Figure 102:ChileInflation.35Figure 103:ChileYoY%Change in Consumer Credit.35Figure 104:ChileProvisions/Total Loans.35,Page 4
34、,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,6 November 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyDB Recent Related ResearchWe downgraded Concha y Toro to HoldFigure 1:Recent LatAm Consumer Research,Femsa:Trimming price target to reflect lower store growthKimberly Clark de Mexico:Earnings recovery confirmed in 3Q12,and s
35、hould extend to 4Q12Coca-Cola Femsa:Warning on Colombia but otherwiseuneventful conference callGruma:Sale of ADMs stake could be positive only in the longtermMinerva:Capital increase points to further de-leveraging andhigher share liquidityLatAm Consumer:Upcoming earnings season to put recent rallyt
36、o the test(3Q12 preview)Cencosud:Buying Carrefours Colombia unit LT positive,STdilutiveLojas Renner:Notes from CFO meetings;Riding tailwindsthrough 2H12 and into 2013Embotelladora Andina:Updating share count,estimates,PTafter Polar mergerConcha y Toro:Timing and magnitude of recovery in question(dow
37、ngrading to Hold)Ambev:Highlights of CEO presentation at NYSE,Jose YordanJose YordanJose YordanJose YordanRebeca SarmientoJose Yordan,Renata Coutinho,Rebeca SarmientoJose YordanRenata CoutinhoJose YordanJose YordanJose Yordan,Oct 26,2012Oct 25,2012Oct 24,2012Oct 23,2012Oct 22,2012Oct 19,2012Oct 18,2
38、012Oct 16,2012Oct 15,2012Oct 10,2012Oct 9,2012,Source:Deutsche BankDB downgraded Campari to Hold and Treasury Wine Estates toSellFigure 2:Other Related Global Research,Global Economic Perspectives-US Election,Fiscal Cliff,andUncertaintyBroadlines&Food Retail:Impact of Hurricane SandyNu Skin Enterpri
39、ses:Coming out swingingDean Foods:DF+WWAV=OpportunityThe Hershey Company:Will The Good Times Last?Campari Group:Time for a digestif-Downgrade to HoldCommodities Special Report-Agriculture:Demand Analysis bySectorProcter&Gamble:What doesnt kill you makes you strongerReckitt Benckiser:No Vanishing Act
40、Pernod-Ricard:A little trouble in big ChinaColgate-Palmolive:DigestingCoca-Cola Enterprises:Weathering the storm(s)Deutsche Bank Research:The House ViewUnilever:Growth engineDr Pepper Snapple Group:Hawaiian PunchedSource:Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Peter HooperCharles GromBill Schmitz
41、 JrEric KatzmanEric KatzmanJamie IsenwaterChristina McGloneBill Schmitz JrHarold ThompsonJamie IsenwaterBill Schmitz JrBill Schmitz JrHarold ThompsonBill Schmitz Jr,Oct 31,2012Oct 31,2012Oct 31,2012Oct 29,2012Oct 29,2012Oct 28,2012Oct 26,2012Oct 26,2012Oct 25,2012Oct 25,2012Oct 25,2012Oct 25,2012Oct
42、 25,2012Oct 25,2012Oct 24,2012,Page 5,6 November 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyFigure 2:Other Related Global Research(Continued),Heineken:Still on trackKimberly-Clark:Making hay in the EM/commodity sunTreasury Wine Estates:Disappointing trading update-Cut toSell after sharp multiple expansionGlo
43、bal Tobacco Monthly:October 2012Supermarket Macro Update:September May Be An InflectionPoint For Grocery InflationDollar Stores:Field Trip Notes:DG,FDO,DLTR+BIGGlobal Economic Perspectives-What the Fed didnt say:Payrolls at 160kDanone:Dairy deja-vuPepsiCo:PEP TalkCostco Wholesale:7%Pull-Back Since 4
44、Q EPS.CMon Man;Raising EPS/PT to$110EM Special Publication-Brazil Economic UpdateCoca-Cola:Still or sparkling?Grocery Pricing Study:Sept.12:Prices Rise Modestly;WMT&SWY See DeclinesCommodities Special Report-Agriculture&The US WASDEReportKicking the can down the road:Beverages,household andpersonal
45、care 3Q12 previewEM Monthly-Holding EM BackShiseido:Revising earnings forecasts:Awaiting firmrestructuring plan announcementMonday metrics:Economic returns relative to valuationWal-Mart:Bull=Bear,Analyst Day Preview,10 Questions ForMr.Duke&TeamSSS Awards:And The Winner Is.Jay-Z EditionTesco PLC:The
46、tail wont wag the dog(revised)Warehouse Club Pricing Study:COST Lowest:New IRC StrategyYielding Positive ResultsSABMiller:Margin calls-SABMiller gearing dynamicsKraft Foods:Yield Isnt Everything.Hold OpinionMondelez International:Sweet Enough.Hold OpinionCommodities Special Report-Agriculture:Harves
47、t PressureTakes Center StageKatzmans Kitchen:Fast Food FactsSodaStream:Survey says.Source:Deutsche BankPage 6,Jonathan FellBill Schmitz Jr.Michael SimotasAndrew Kieley,Jonathan Fell,Masashi Mori,Charles GromCharles GromPeter HooperJamie IsenwaterBill Schmitz Jr.Eric KatzmanCharles GromJose FariaBill
48、 Schmitz Jr.Charles GromChristinaMcGloneBill Schmitz Jr.Drausio GiacomelliMasashi MoriBill Schmitz Jr.Charles GromCharles GromJames-G CollinsCharles GromJonathan FellEric KatzmanEric KatzmanChristinaMcGloneEric KatzmanBill Schmitz Jr.,Oct 24,2012Oct 24,2012Oct 22,2012Oct 21,2012Oct 19,2012Oct 19,201
49、2Oct 18,2012Oct 17,2012Oct 17,2012Oct 17,2012Oct 16,2012Oct 16,2012Oct 15,2012Oct 12,2012Oct 12,2012Oct 12,2012Oct 9,2012Oct 8,2012Oct 5,2012Oct 4,2012Oct 3,2012Oct 2,2012Oct 2,2012Oct 2,2012Oct 2,2012Oct 2,2012Oct 1,2012Oct 1,2012,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.,Page7,Latam
50、ConsumerMonthly,Consumer,6November2012,(BUY),(Buy),36.00,(Buy),95.00,(Hold),(Hold),7.00,(Hold),38.50,(Hold),CCU,68.50,(Hold),37.50,(Hold),84.00,(Hold),114.00,(Hold),15.00,(Hold),DB LatAm Consumer Coverage SummariesFigure 3:Highlighted Stock ListDB-Covered LatAm Food and Beverage CompaniesBuy-Rated,C
