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1、中国苹果汁、梨汁产业状况及2008产情预测 Chinese AJC&PJC Industryand New Crop Forecast,张健Jian Zhang 国投中鲁果汁股份有限公司SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Co.,Ltd.,1991-2007年度苹果、梨种植面积/产量介绍1991-2007 Apple&Pear plantation acreage/production2003-2007年度苹果汁出口情况2003-2007 AJC export by country2003-2007年度国内果汁消费情况2003-2007 domestic juice consum
2、ption 目前果汁行业状况及规模 Juice concentrate industry and processing capacity 2008/09榨季苹果、梨果情预测 2008/09 crop Apple&Pear output forecast 2008/09榨季苹果汁、梨汁产量预测2008/09 crop AJC&PJC production forecast,中国与世界苹果种植面积Apple Plantation Acreage:World Vs China,Source:世界粮农组织FAO,Unit:1000Ha,中国与世界苹果产量Apple Production:World V
3、s China,27,500,000MT,Source:世界粮农组织FAO&中国农业部MOA,Unit:1000MT,中国与世界梨种植面积Pear Plantation Acreage:World Vs China,Source:世界粮农组织FAO,Unit:1000Ha,中国与世界梨产量Pear Production:World Vs China,Source:世界粮农组织FAO&中国农业部MOA,Unit:1000MT,12,895,000MT,2007/08中国榨季苹果/梨汁产量2007/08 AJC/PJC Production in China,Total Production of
4、 Apple:27,360,000MTTotal Production of AJC:1,040,000MTProportion for processing:30%,Total Production of Pear:12,895,000MTTotal Production of PJC:60,000MTProportion for processing:5%,Source:中国食土商会CFNA&中国农业部MOA,中国苹果汁出口数量及单价 AJC Export by Quantity/Unit Price,Source:中国海关GAC,-,200,000,400,000,600,000,800
5、,000,1,000,000,1,200,000,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008 Jan-,Jul,Quantity:MT,-,Quantity,Unit Price,中国苹果汁分国别出口比例AJC Export Proportion by Country,Source:中国海关GAC,07与06榨季苹果汁出口量对比AJC Export:2007/08 Vs 2006/07 Crop,Unit:MT,Source:中国海关GAC,国内果汁消费情况Domestic Juice Consumption,果汁饮料发展迅速，5年内果汁产量从310万吨增加到1080万吨。Ju
6、ice&Juice drink industry develops rapidly，the total production increased from 3.1 million tons to 10.8 million tons in the past 5 years.果汁饮料销售量已超过碳酸饮料。Juice&Juice drink sale volume exceeds CSD.未来市场潜力巨大，占全国人口总数四分之三的农村市场仍待开发，同时，青少年也逐步成为果汁消费的主力军。Juice&Juice drink has a huge potential market.The rural m
7、arket,which accounts for 75%of total population is waiting for development.Youth and children are becoming major consumers of juice&juice drink.,2003-2007年中国饮料产量2003-2007 Beverage Production Volume in China,Unit:1000MT,Source:中国饮料协会CBIA,Juice/juice drink production increased from 3,108,000 tons to 1
8、0,786,000 tons in the past 5 years.,果汁行业状况及规模 Juice Concentrate Industry and Processing Capacity,产品质量稳步提升，保证措施明确有力Product quality improves steadily and effective measures are taken.行业一直非常关注产品质量，在食品安全倍受关注的今天，我们又把产品质量安全摆到行业生存的高度。行业制订了苹果浓缩汁（浆）加工用苹果标准，在今年7月召开果汁行业大会上通过并开始执行。Nowadays product quality and s
9、afety are the major focus in the food industry.To ensure the quality and satisfaction of our product has been our first priority,we also look on them as the most important industrial criteria.Therefore,The Standard of Apple Juice Concentrate was established and carried out by the industry during the
10、 Juice conference held in July,2008.国家质量监督检验检疫总局为加强食品安全管理，出台了一系列政策法规，特别是加强了对加工用农产品原料的控制，从源头开始把关，确保食品安全。A series of policies and regulations are initiated by Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the PRC,to strengthen the control of raw material for processing,to make sur
11、e food safety from the beginning stages.,果汁行业状况及规模 Juice Concentrate Industry and Processing Capacity,行业布局合理，设备水平先进Reasonable industrial distribution and advanced equipment行业的工厂分布在苹果、梨的主产区，资源越多的省份加工能力越大，行业总生产规模已达到4885吨/小时。Juice concentrate plants are located in main apple&pear growing areas.The prov
12、inces with richer resources have much bigger processing capacity.Total processing capacity in China has reached to 4885MT/H.行业各工厂设备的平均水平为世界一流，在保证品质的同时，降低了原料及能源的消耗，提高了产品的竞争能力。Worlds top class plant equipments in the industry not only guaranteed product quality,but also lowered raw material usage,and
13、enhanced product competitiveness.,中国苹果/梨加工能力分布图 Apple&Pear Processing Capacity by Province,Total 4885MT/H,Source:中国食土商会CFNA,2008/09榨季苹果、梨产情预测2008/09 Crop Apple&Pear Output Forecast,中国中国苹果种植面积在1996年达到峰顶为299万公顷，随后逐年下降，到2004年的谷底为188万公顷；从2005年开始，苹果种植面积再次出现增加，2007年恢复到200万公顷。In 1996,chinese apple plantati
14、on acreage reached a record high 2.99 million hectares,but declined in the forward years to the bottom 1.88 million hectares in 2004.Since 2005,apple plantation acreage rebounded,and came back to 2million hectares.中国苹果产量自1999年突破2000万吨后，保持逐年增长态势，除2005年遭遇大自然灾害减产外，到2007年已超过2700万吨。Chinese apple crop rea
15、ched 20million metric tons since 1999,and increased steadily in the following years except 2005,when climate disaster damaged crop heavily.In 2007,apple crop has exceeded 27million metric tons.,2008/09榨季苹果、梨产情预测2008/09 Crop Apple&Pear Output Forecast,今年中国虽然部分苹果种植区域出现的灾害，但由于种植面积的增加，预计今年的苹果产量将与去年持平或略高
16、。Although disasters in part of apple growing areas,its predicted the total apple crop in 2008/09 season would be same or higher than last season due to increased plantation acreage.同样，梨的种植面积自2000年超过100万公顷后，逐年增加，2007年超过120万公顷；产量也在逐年增加，2007年超过1200万吨，预计今年产量与去年相仿。Like apple,plantation acreage of pear re
17、ached 1million hectares and increased year by year to1.2 million hectares in 2007.Pear crop also increased steadily up to 12 million metric tons in 2007.Its predicted the crop in 2008/09 season would be similar with last year.,2008/09榨季苹果汁、梨汁产量预测2008/09 Crop AJC/PJC Production Forecast,本榨季中国果汁行业将根据市
18、场需求来决定苹果汁的产量，行业已经初步达成了比去年减产35%的共识。同时，行业随时会根据市场变化调整产量。同样，梨汁产量也会随市场需求来调整。The industry had agreed to reduce the production by 35%from last year according to market demand.Meanwhile,production may vary by the actual market need.Likewise,pear juice concentrate production quantity will also vary depending
19、 on the demand.今年，行业开始生产时间比去年晚了一个半月，现已生产的果汁同比去年减少25万吨。而且行业大规模的正式生产将在大会后才正式开始。Due to the delay of production by one and half months in 2008,the total quantity of juice concentrate is estimated about 250,000 metric tons less than the same period of last year.The mass production through out the Chinese
20、 AJC industry could be expected to a time when 2008 juice conference finishes.,2008/09榨季苹果汁、梨汁产量预测2008/09 Crop AJC/PJC Production Forecast,行业内企业的市场意识、自律意识、全局意识越来越强，通过控制生产时间来控制行业总产量得到共同认可和执行，这一措施已得到了较好的实施，产生了良好的效果。Market awareness,self-regulatory ability and the sense of the overall situation of the
21、membership corporations are all getting stronger.Manipulating of production timing in order to control the industrys overall production received mutual recognition and execution,and this measure already received relatively better implementation,and caused excellent outcome.行业更加理性对待市场，果汁价格稳定在合理区间，兼顾好行业、消费者、农民三者利益。The industry is treating the market more rationally.Juice price is stabilized in a reasonable scope to balance the interests of the industry,consumers and the farmers.,Thank You!,
