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1、Business Models,Steve BClean Tech Open Accelerator 2010,I Wrote This,I Write a Blog,It Starts With the“Idea”,Where are CleanTech Ideas Born?,Technology shiftsMarket changesSocietal changesDinosaur factorIrrational exuberance,Technology Driven Ideas,Is it buildable now?How much R,how much D?Does it d
2、epend on anything else?Are there IP issues?Does it solve an existing customer problem?Create a new market?How big a market and when?What do you need to turn the idea into a company?How do you test customer acceptance early?,Customer Driven Ideas,Is there an articulated customer need?How do you know?
3、How big a market and when?Are others trying to solve it?If so,why you?What do you need to turn the idea into a company?How do you test your idea early?,Opportunity Driven Ideas,Is there an opportunity no one sees but you do?How do you know its a vision not a hallucination?How do you test your idea e
4、arly?How big a market and when?Are others trying to solve it?If so,why you?What do you need to turn the idea into a company?,But an Idea By Itselfis Not a Company,Idea/Product Only a Start,Your Idea itself does not have valueIts fit with customer needs/demand is crucialThe other parts of the company
5、 make it a businessFirst-Mover Advantage is usually wrong,Technology Risk,Market Risk or Both?,Clean Tech Markets,Clean Tech Markets-Risk,Which markets have technology risk?Which markets have customer risk?Which have both?,Clean Tech Markets-Risk Definitions,Technology Risk risk is in development of
6、 the product(i.e.fuel cells,thin-film arrays,etc.)then customers automatically adoptCustomer riskrisk is in customer and market adoption Which have both?You spend your time differently depending on risk,Next,CleanTech Business Plan Hypothesis,Clean Tech Markets-Hypotheses,Your business plan is a set
7、 of untested hypothesisWhat are they?,Clean Tech Markets-Hypotheses,Size of OpportunityTAM,SAMCustomerWhos the end user?Economic buyer?Reimburser?Sales Whats the distribution channel?MarketingHow do you create end-user demandCustomer DevelopmentHow do you test your hypothesisBusiness ModelHow do all
8、 the parts work to create profits?FinancingWhat is the path to cash flow positive,Clean Tech Markets-Hypotheses,How do you test these hypotheses?How do you execute them?,How Big is It?,So if You Succeed Do I Care?,“Venture-Scale”Businesses,Solve a significant problem/want or need,for which someone i
9、s willing to pay a premiumA good fit with the founder(s)and teamCan grow large($100 million)for traditional VCsAttractive returns for type of investor,Total Available Market,Served Available Market,Target Market,21,Target Market,SAM=how many can I reach with my sales channel,TAM=how big is the unive
10、rse,Target Market(for a startup)=who will be the most likely buyers,Market Size:Summary,Market SizeHow big can this market be?How much of it can we get?Market growth rateMarket structure(Mature or in flux?)Most important:Talk to Customers and ChannelNext important:Market size by competitive approxim
11、ationWall Street analyst reports are greatMarket research firms,$4 Billion 18,500 MW(Worldwide Grid Tied),Based on lifetime value of all customers(20 yrs)Source:Amonix,Market Size for SunStream,$4 Billion 18,500 MW(Worldwide Grid Tied),$220 Million1,000 MW(US Grid Tied),Based on lifetime value of al
12、l customers(20 yrs)Source:Amonix,Market Size for SunStream,Based on lifetime value of all customers(20 yrs)Source:Amonix,Market Size for SunStream,33-500 Customers(25MW in sales=1-15 customers)Source:Heliotex,Plan versus Model,Im Confused,What is a Business Model?How does it differ from a Business P
13、lan?,Business Plan,A document your investors make you write that they dont readA useful place for you to collect your guesses about your businessSize of OpportunityCustomersChannelDemand CreationRevenue/Expenses/ProfitThe template to look like everyone else when you do present to VCs,Business Plan-S
14、um of Hypotheses,Business plan collects your hypothesisAdds facts as you know them todayA plan of how to turn hypothesis into factsExtrapolates results if hypothesis turn into facts,No Business Plan survives first contact with customers,So Search for a Business Model,Business Model,Start with the Pi
15、eces,What Is a Business Model?,A diagram that shows all the flows between your company and its customersIt describes the rationale of how an organization creates,delivers and captures valueAll on a single sheet of paper,*Alex Osterwalder,What Makes up a Business Model?,A series of building blocks wh
16、ich describe:The productCustomers/UsersDemand CreationMotivations/problemsBudget/ResourcesFlows of valueSupply chain,Users,Customers,Purchase Distribution,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Purchase Distribution,Demand Creation,
17、$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Purchase Distribution,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Purchase Distribution,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufactu
18、ring,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Distribution Channel,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Distribution Channel,Users,Custo
19、mers,DistributionChannel,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Distribution Channel,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Users,Customers,Distribution Channel,Demand Creation,$,P
20、roduct,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,Emphasis On Hypotheses Testing,Startups Continually Iterate&Pivot,VALUEPROPOSITION,COSTSTRUCTURE,CUSTOMERRELATIONSHIP,TARGETCUSTOMER,DISTRIBUTIONCHANNEL,VALUECONFIGURATION,CORECAPABILITIES,PARTNERNETWORK,REVENUESTREAMS,gives an
21、overall view of a companys bundle of products and services,portrays the network of cooperative agreements with other companies,describes the channels to communicate and get in touch with customers,describes the arrangement of activities and resources,explains the relationships a company establishes
22、with its customers,sums up the monetary consequences to run a business model,describes the revenue streams through which money is earned,describes the customers a company wants to offer value to,outlines the capabilities required to run a companys business model,INFRASTRUCTURE,CUSTOMER,OFFER,FINANCE
23、,Business Model=Keeping Score in a Startup,Business Model Generation Book,Business Model on Day One of Your Startup,Users,Customers,Distribution Channel,Demand Creation,$,Product,Resources,$,$,Assembly/Manufacturing,3rd Party Integration,$,$,$,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,Hypothesis Testing ProcessCustomer Devel
24、opment,CustomerDiscovery,CustomerValidation,Company Building,Customer Creation,Pivot,Stop selling,start listeningTest your hypothesesContinuous Discovery,Customer Discovery,CustomerDiscovery,CustomerValidation,CompanyBuilding,CustomerCreation,Customer Validation,CustomerDiscovery,CustomerValidation,
25、Customer Creation,CompanyBuilding,Repeatable and scalable business model?Passionate earlyvangelists?Pivot back to Discovery if no customers,Pivot,The Pivot,The heart of Customer Development Iteration without crisis Fast,agile and opportunistic,Customer Development Book,Putting It Together in A VC Pi
26、tch,What are VCs Really Asking?,Are you going to:Blow my initial investment?Or are you going to make me a ton of money?Are there customers for what you are building?How many are there?Now?Later?Is there a profitable business model?Can it scale?,The Traditional VC Pitch,TechnologyTeamProductOpportuni
27、tyCustomer ProblemBusiness ModelCustomers,Better,Since You Cant Answer my real questions heres the checklist,58,Facts Reduce VC Risk,Business Model+Customer DevelopmentExtract the hypothesesLeave the building to test the hypothesisPresent the results as:“Lessons Learned from our customers”Iterate Business Model,Tell The Story of What You Learned,Start with your original business modelTell them why it was wrongExtra credit for getting thrown out of a customerTell them what you learnedExtra credit for customers saying“now well buy”Use data if you have it,Thanks,
