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1、券,证,东,兴,1,DONGXING SECURITIES,2012,11,7,S1480510120016010-2010-66554044xue_,2008,2009,15-64,2010,20,90,21,10,123,4,2,3,1,1990201020112012(E)2013(E)2015(E),(%)21.0611.9011.9312.0011.9511.80,15-6466.7474.4774.4374.4074.3574.00,(%),15-647.639.9910.0310.0710.1110.16,(,),东,兴,证,券,1,1.2,2,2.1,3,3.1,3.2,4,4
2、.1,4.2,P2DONGXING SECURITIES.4,1.1,1,.4.4.9.9,2.2,2012,GDP,.10,.13.13.14.16.16.18,东,兴,证,券,1,2,6,2,3,4,6,17,18,19,21,%,%,24,25,26,DONGXING SECURITIES,P3CPI.6.9,3451,1,/,%,.12.17.17.20.4,1993-1994,19791968,.5.5.6,57,2004,%,.7.8.10,8,(,),%,.10,9,(,/,/,/,),%,.11,10,/,/,%,.11,1112,%,.11.11,131415,2012-20
3、152012-2015,15-6415-64,-,%.13%.13.14,16,2010/11,%,.14,.15.15.15,20,%,.15,.16.16.16.18.18.19,券,东,兴,证,P4DONGXING SECURITIES1,1,2009,2009,12,11,1.11,1,1,2010,1,3,4,2010,3,30,Wind1.211,20101.2.1,1,东,兴,证,券,DONGXING SECURITIES,23,CEIC,19791968,1,P5,CEIC/1993-19941996,东,兴,证,券,P6DONGXING SECURITIES4 1993-19
4、94,1,M2CEIC,2010,CPI,2012,证,券,东,兴,DONGXING SECURITIES,1.2.2,1,2004,P7,2010,5,2004,2004200420045 2004/,东,兴,证,券,P8DONGXING SECURITIES6Becker1965,Linder,1970,The Harried Lesiuer Calss,1973-1982,1973,2003,2010,1983,2007,74.3%,71.6%76%76.4%,2007,证,券,东,兴,DONGXING SECURITIES,P9,2008,40087,1,3.5,2009,2,2003
5、-2008,22.1,2009,2010,7,18,122007188-30080-1202,2009,3,2012,10,(Fast Retailing),20-30%,G.U,50%,证,券,东,兴,P10DONGXING SECURITIES,NEC,20062005,1112,229,NEC,2.5g,2012,3,2011,4,19,2012,3,229,86,60%,2008,7,31,18,36,7,4,2011,2,22,201220112011,41212,275,B2C,DHL,2011,6,29,100%,DHL,2.22008-2012,90000,2012,GDP,1
6、001-2000,2008,62.64%,2012,7.34%,2001-4000,29.46%,68.24%,12.64%,20082010,2156,26.00%,2012,3422,7,%,8,(,),%,东,兴,证,券,DONGXING SECURITIES,P11,9,(,/,/,/,),%,10,/,/,%,2012,/,/3057,/,3560,/4047,/,2008,1764,2008-20122246295314.93%,12.69%8.41%,2011,26.28%23.10,/,/,2010,16.42%,2008,4913,7448,11.01%,2011,14.95
7、%,11,%,12,%,东,兴,证,券,2,(,),/,/,/,/,/,P12DONGXING SECURITIES2012,1,20124001-6000,GDP,2001-4000,3,2008-201214.93%,12.60%,3,%,2009,2010,2011,2012,-0.859.54,26.0013.43,12.8126.28,12.6110.45,12.6414.93,(GDPGDP,),-1.84-1.589.488.559.20,17.4016.4212.7917.7810.40,23.1011.5014.9517.459.20,11.747.286.819.008.7
8、0,12.608.4111.0113.199.38,证,券,东,兴,DONGXING SECURITIES,33.1,15-642010,P13,1,20,80,80,2012,21,11.93%,201212.00%15-64,1990,66.74%,2011,74.43%,2,2012,15 64,1997,2012,12,20112010,80,2012,74.40%20131987/65,74.35%,3,13,2012-2015,15-64,%,14,2012-2015,15-64,%,证,兴,券,东,P14DONGXING SECURITIES3.212011,21.24%,GDP
9、,17.45%,37.25%,2009-2011,2009,36.75%,15,-,16,2010/11,%,2,16-24,1.0,25-34,45,2009,35-4416-24,2010,32009,券,东,兴,证,2,/,DONGXING SECURITIES,12008-2012,P15,17,1999510.48%,18,1998-2010,19,20,%,东,兴,证,券,?,P16DONGXING SECURITIES44.121,1990s,%,2000s,2010s,%,券,证,兴,东,DONGXING SECURITIES,1991-1995,P17595.59%,515.
10、87%1998,4,/,2001-2005135,154.65%135.08%,143.62%/,0.19130.80770.40260.79120.60960.80320.75100.70980.76940.7371,0.01210.04960.13690.04740.10190.05400.06600.08480.07840.0855,0.00520.02460.12330.04290.08580.04300.05960.04950.04400.0612,0.00440.01720.06210.02830.02760.01870.02460.03130.01690.0174,0.78710
11、.10080.27520.09030.17520.08110.09880.12460.09130.0988,0.01530.49220.49730.52450.58150.66640.66730.68030.85810.8653,5,2007,135*135/,/,0.20670.3304,0.17750.0888,0.08450.0357,0.01010.3111,0.52120.2340,0.34040.3793,证,东,兴,券,P18DONGXING SECURITIES,0.53330.16620.47860.67800.59710.43000.65510.53460.6078,0.1
12、0720.09060.17280.09840.09300.28690.17550.27650.2102,0.05550.12820.02790.03500.04720.05580.03230.01150.0299,0.06540.43380.02250.07370.17470.05950.05020.04760.0536,0.23860.18120.29820.11480.08820.16760.08700.12970.0984,0.44910.49990.57970.85761.05451.71162.01812.13252.1353,2007,135*135,4.2,(w),(2005),(L),2002,24,1.25,lnw 2.69,25,2.69,lnw,东,兴,证,券,DONGXING SECURITIES,26123,P19,东,兴,证,券,P20,DONGXING SECURITIES,6,/,证,兴,券,东,DONGXING SECURITIES,2008,P21,9,2011,300,2011,东,兴,证,券,P22DONGXING SECURITIES300615,6,300,5555,-5-5,15+5+5,
