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1、投资要点:,增长 33%。我们跟踪的八大重点城市十二月销量创出年内新高，相比已经非,常强劲的十一月销量环比增长 3%。而八大城市 2012 年全年销量同比增长,速分别达到 36%,10%,39%,94%,-5%,53%,18%和 94%。,年十二月基数很低，所以全年销售同比增速已经提前锁定。预计大中市值中,比增长 78%)、世茂房地产(同比增长 50%)和保利置业(同比增长 45%)，最低,资地产股全年销售平均同比增幅将达到 25%，其中最高的三家是融创中国(同,产(同比增长 5%)。,的三家分别是恒盛地产(同比下滑 15%)、雅居乐地产(同比下滑 2%)和龙湖地,股开始企稳并重拾升势。尽管全
2、年涨幅惊人，投资者的情绪至少从短期看似,1.2 倍 2013 年 PB 和 8.6 倍 2013 年 PE 后，较历史均值仅低了 7%，在政策,期内地产股基本面还是有优势，但与此同时也不能忽视政策风险。因此我们,HK)或者执行力较弱的开发商比如雅居乐(3383 HK)和恒盛地产(845 HK)。另,一方面，我们认为融创中国(1918 HK)、保利置业(119HK)、世茂房地产,2012 年大中市值中资地产股平均上涨幅度为 86%，估值已经不那么具备吸,乎仍未降温。但在我们看来，当行业平均估值已经恢复到 33%的 NAV 折价、,SWS Research Co.Ltd99 East Nanjin
3、g Road,Shanghai|+86 21 2329,Industry CommentJan 4,2013NeutralUnchangedAnalystKris LiA0230511040076ARGResearch assistantVivian XueAContactVivian Xue(8621)23297273Related Reports“Outperformance is likely tocontinue,yet upside potential isnarrowed Dec3,2012“Nov sales may not cool down asconcerns,but be
4、 cautious inchasing Small CapsNov1,2012“Tightening concerns likely to easeon softening price rise momentumand weaker-than-expected newhome start,yet policy maycontinue stay alert on home/landprice trendOct19,2012“Policy overhang remains,staycautious”Sep10,2012The company does not hold anyequities or
5、 derivatives of the listedcompany mentioned in this report(“target”),but then we shall providefinancial advisory services subject tothe relevant laws and regulations.Anyaffiliates of the company may holdequities of the target,which mayexceed 1 percent of issued sharessubject to the relevant laws and
6、regulations.The company may alsoprovide investment banking services tothe target.The Company fulfills its dutyof disclosure within its sphere ofknowledge.The clients may forpage.,The Chinese View on China房地产月报警惕一月政策走向，近期风险收益回报欠佳 十二月八大重点城市一手房成交量环比上升 3%，同比上升 50%，全年同比33%，北京、上海、深圳、杭州、天津、重庆、成都和南京全年销量同比增
7、上市开发商十二月销售难以超预期，因为全年增速已经完全锁定。我们预计大部分上市开发商未来几天即将公布的十二月销售将持平甚至微降，因为去 引力。在十二月前三周获利了结压力释放之后，我们看到十二月末中资地产风险逐渐上升的情况下，整个板块的风险收益回报已经不那么具备吸引力。一月是房地产调控从紧的重要事件窗口，否则房价将难以控制。我们看到在供应短缺的担忧下，近期追高情绪逐渐蔓延，这意味着如果没有进一步调控的出台来有效抑制需求，那么供应短缺担忧的加剧将进一步助长这样的追涨情绪。这就是为什么我们相信一月份将看到一些政策层面的动作(比如收紧大城市首套房贷或者将房产税向更多城市推广)，否则在二月春节过后房价将面
8、临新一轮的上涨压力。我们继续建议投资者通过配对交易对冲风险。我们深知与其他行业相比，短建议投资者做空估值较贵的开发商比如中海外发展(688 HK)、碧桂园(2007(813HK)和恒大地产(3333 HK)的风险收益回报仍然比较理想。,33%fromsalesFY11.8Primary continuetransaction volumes50%YoY,citiesincreaseour,of those 8 cities finally arrived at 33%,and Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Hangzhou,Tianjin,Chongqing,Chengd
9、u and Nanjing reported the annual growth,of 36%,10%,39%,94%,-5%,53%,18%,94%respectively.,flat or even slightly declining Dec sales in the days to come,as their FY12 sales,growth has already been locked in advance given the pretty low base in last Dec.,(+70%YoY),Shimao(+50%YoY)and Poly Ppty(+45%YoY)a
10、nd the bottom,three are Glorious(-15%YoY),Agile(-2%YoY)and Longfor(+5%YoY).,that Large/mid After rebound bytakingaverage first three weeksvaluationwe longer,sentiment seems not yet cool down at least for the moment.However,in our,viewpoint,when the sector average valuation has already recovered to 3
11、3%disc,rising policy risks.,hardJan control.important chasing high re-tighening,was prevailing acorssprices,should no additional tightening is introduced to curb the demand effectively in,momentumproperty market recentlyboostedsupplyintensifyingconcerns,goingmeansforward,tax into more cities),otherw
12、ise home prices may face a new round of upward,pressure after Spring Festival in Feb.,Weve continue comparinginvestors sectors itspolicy property outperforming in,expensive valuations,such as COLI(688 HK),Country Garden(2007 HK)or weak,executions,such as Agile(3383 HK)and Glorious(845 HK).While on t
13、he other,from already the yearly high in Dec back another 3%sales,fully Dec We expect of the on upside as FY are going report,On report basis we growth inlarge andamong which the top three are Sunac,end the month.stocks of so to rally for whole year 2012,near the,to NAV,1.2x 13PB of 13PE,is not belo
14、w historial given,the in Jan(sayThis tells why we believe its in to or move on policy,the policy for the Weterm,however,we believe its to risky to with,hand,in our viewpoint,the and profile is stillHK).,Jan 4,2013,Property MonthlyBuilding,Investment highlights：monitor refreshedamaizingly strong Nov.
15、Whileongrowthof full-year 2012MoMhomeincreasebeenListcoslocked.sales unlikelymostsurpriselisted devevlopers growth hastoalreadymaythe average25%sales estimate 2012,mid-scale HK listed China developerslistedofChina propertyDespite start bigstabilize andtheregain the momentuminvestorsrisk/reward profi
16、le andthe8.6xwhole sectoronly 7%attractive especiallyaverage,thefrontnear term.re-tighen first-time mortgageslikely big citiessomeextend propertyfundamentalsheadwinds.near therefore suggest investors alsoshort namesoverlookPoly(119HK),Shimao(813HK)risk/rewardEvergrande(3333 good for Sunac(1918 HK),P
17、lease refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 1,Primary home transaction volumes in 8 big cities under our monitor refreshed,amaizingly strong Nov.While growth of full-year 2012 home sales of those 8,the yearly high in Dec on back of another 3%MoM increase from already,cities finally a
18、rrived at 33%,and Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Hangzhou,10%,39%,94%,-5%,53%,18%,94%respectively.,600,400,200,0,Daily Avgyear 2010.,Jan 4,2013,Property MonthlyBuilding,Dec sales in 8 big cities continue up 3%MoMor 50%YoY,FY12 increase by 33%from FY11Tianjin,Chongqing,Chengdu and Nanjing reported the ann
19、ual growth of 36%,Figure 1:Primary home transaction volumes in 8 big cities under our monitor refreshed the yearlyhigh000 sq.m.500300100Note:Data above starts from Primary Home Transaction Volumes of 8 cities tracked on weekly basisSource:Local home sales registration websites,SWS Research,Please re
20、fer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 2,600,400,200,0,-20%,-40%,-60%,-80%,80%,60%,40%,20%,100%,0%,%Chg YoY,Monthly（RHS),%Chg YoY,YTD(RHS),34,33,27,Jan 4,2013,Property MonthlyBuilding,Figure 2:Dec home sales is the highest in 2012 000 sq.m.500300100Daily Avg Primary Home Transaction Vol
21、umes of 8 cities tracked on monthly basisSource:Local home sales registration websites,SWS ResearchFigure 3:Daily Avg Primary Home Transaction Volumes of 8 cities tracked on Yearly basis,807060,57,73,6961 62,5040302010,3627,42,3130,444036,30211511,301814,41,43333028,18,9 8 10,0,Beijing,Tianjin,Shang
22、hai,Nanjing,Hangzhou,Chongqing,Chengdu,Shenzhen,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Local home sales registration websites,SWS Research,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 3,declining Dec sales in the days to come,as their FY12 sales growth has already,We expect most of the listed de
23、vevlopers are going to report flat or even slightly,basis we estimate large and mid-scale HK listed China developers may report,been locked in advance given the pretty low base in last Dec.On the average,Shimao(+50%YoY)and Poly Ppty(+45%YoY)and the bottom three are,Glorious(-15%YoY),Agile(-2%YoY)and
24、 Longfor(+5%YoY).,Ticker,Listcos,Monthly Sales(RMB bn)%Chg YoY,YTD,1918 HK,Sunac,6%,65%132%,0.6,0.8,2.0,2.2,2.3,3.3,2.4,2.6,3.0,3.6,4.1,4.7,-73%-66%-42%,3900 HK Greentown,1.4,1.2,2.6,2.8,3.0,7.1,4.7,4.5,5.3,5.8,7.2,813 HK,Shimao,1109 HK CR Land 1.5 2.4 4.3 3.1 5.0 7.0 4.6 6.0 3.8 4.2 4.2-36%4%44%,-5
25、2%-33%-9%,119 HK,Poly Property,0.5,0.5,1.0,1.0,2.1,5.1,2.7,2.3,2.1,2.1,1.8,0.9 2.1 4.3 4.1 5.1 6.0 4.1 4.0 5.1 3.5 3.1 3.8-71%-31%15%,688 HK,COLI,-49%42%32%,3.3,10.9,7.5,9.9,10.2,12.3,8.4,6.7,7.2,8.8,5.2,-91%-72%-43%,600048 SS A-share Poly 1.5 3.6 9.7 9.1 10.7 15.5 9.1 8.5 7.8 7.7 8.7-69%-31%6%,2777
26、 HK R&F,-52%-4%,11%,1.2,2.4,3.0,2.9,2.3,2.8,2.4,2.8,2.5,4.1,2.8,200002 SZ Vanke,-39%-25%-13%,12.2,7.3,11.5,7.4,10.7,13.3,10.4,11.4,12.0,13.7,17.1,3333 HK Evergrande 2.2 2.0 4.0 8.2 10.4 8.2 8.2 7.2 8.1 14.6 11.7-78%-70%-58%,1813 HK KWG,-69%-54%-38%,0.4,0.6,1.0,1.0,1.1,1.2,1.1,1.1,1.2,1.3,1.2,-72%-55
27、%-34%,960 HK,Longfor,1.2,2.1,3.2,3.0,3.4,4.5,3.1,3.6,4.0,3.8,3.9,3383 HK Agile 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 3.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.2-36%-38%-32%,124%137%129%,-27%-21%,4%,33%,49%,58%,52%73%73%,16%,24%,27%,36%,25%,25%,11%,9%,9%,-11%,-6%,-5%,-24%-28%-19%,-33%-25%-18%,-26%-19%-4%,-33%-20%-22%,71%,73%,62%,70%,78%,
28、24%,37%,54%,68%,46%,46%,47%,49%,50%,39%,41%,47%,48%,29%,29%,29%,30%,30%,24%,25%,23%,7%4%12%11%,-1%-1%2%9%,-13%,7%,-10%,-5%,-1%,3%,0%0%-2%1%,-9%-9%-9%-3%,Jul-12,-15%,-16%,-15%,18%,90%,15%,76%,51%,34%,33%,25%,25%,-2%,-8%,-9%,-1%,3%,-63%-43%-7%,8%17%,-9%-2%,18%18%20%25%,Jan 4,2013,Property MonthlyBuild
29、ing,Listcos Dec sales unlikely to surprise onupside as FY growth has already been fullylocked25%sales growth in 2012,among which the top three are Sunac(+78%YoY),Figure 3:Monthly contracted sales of HK listed China developersJan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-1
30、2 Dec-12 Jan-12#Mar-123377 HK Sino-ocean land 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.6 1.9 5.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.22007 HK Country Garden 1.0 1.7 3.5 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.8 3.7 3.8 6.4 6.1-78%-61%-34%845 HK Glorious 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6-58%-30%-45%Source:Company Data,SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page
31、for important disclosures,Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12-10%-11%26%-22%-18%11%-37%-20%-17%-26%-19%-10%,Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-1269%56%53%53%34%32%33%36%-16%-15%-6%7%-14%-14%-19%-19%Page 4,Jan-06,May-06,Sep-06,Jan-07,May-07,Sep-07,Jan-08,May-08,Sep-08,Jan-09,May-09,Sep-09,Jan-10,May-10,Sep-10,Jan-11,M
32、ay-11,Sep-11,Jan-12,May-12,Sep-12,After the profit taking in the first three weeks of Dec,we saw HK listed China,month.Despite of so big rally for the whole year 2012,investors sentiment,property stocks start to stabilize and regain the momentum near the end of the,when the sector average valuation
33、has already recovered to 33%disc to NAV,1.2x 13PB and 8.6x 13PE,or only 7%below historial average,the risk/reward,Jan 4,2013,Property MonthlyBuilding,Large/mid caps rebound by an average of86%in 2012,valuation no longer thatattractiveseems not yet cool down at least for the moment.However,in our vie
34、wpoint,profile of the whole sector is not attractive especially given the rising policy risks.Figure 4:Sector valuations moved fully in line with the recovery of transaction volumes,10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%,000 sq.m.,6005004003002001000,Avg NAV disc of Large/mid cap HK listed China Devolope
35、rs(LHS)Avg Daily Primary Home Transaction Volumes of 8 big cities(RHS)Source:Local home sales registration websites,Bloomberg,SWS ResearchFigure 5:Current valuation is only 7%below historical average since 2006,60%40%20%,2500020000,+2 sd,0%-20%-40%-60%-80%,150001000050000,+1 sdAvg 06-12-1 sd-2 sd,Av
36、g NAV disc of Large/mid cap HK listed China Devolopers(LHS)HSCEI(RHS)Source:Bloomberg,SWS Research,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 5,market recently on supply shortage concerns,that means such momentum,would be further boosted on intensifying concerns going forward shoul
37、d no,additional tightening is introduced to curb the demand effectively in the near,term.This tells why we believe its likely to see some move on policy front in Jan,cities),otherwise home prices may face a new round of upward pressure after,Spring Festival in Feb.,well noted comparing to other sect
38、ors its still property outperforming in,fundamentals for the near term,however,we believe its also risky to overlook,expensive valuations,such as COLI(688 HK),Country Garden(2007 HK)or weak,executions,such as Agile(3383 HK)and Glorious(845 HK).While on the other,Poly(119HK),Shimao(813HK)and Evergran
39、de(3333 HK).,Closing Price Mkt Cap PE,Ticker Listcos(HKD)(HKD bn)2011 2012,688.HK COLI 24.35 199 16.7 13.2,960.HK,Longfor,15.94,82,15.7,12.3,2007.HK,1109.HK CR Land 23.30 136 22.7 19.4,3333.HK,Evergrande,4.54,68,6.9,6.8,813.HK,Shimao,16.44,57,11.0,11.6,2777.HK,R&F,14.72,47,8.9,11.7,3377.HK,3383.HK A
40、gile 11.82 41 9.8 7.9,119.HK,Poly Ppty,6.52,24,10.4,7.7,1813.HK,KWG,6.50,19,8.4,7.0,845.HK,Glorious,1.64,13,6.1,9.0,11.3,16.1,9.5,7.0,7.4,8.2,12.4,6.9,5.0,8.9,2.8,2.1,2.1,1.7,1.6,1.7,1.0,1.2,0.6,PB,2.4,2.0,1.9,1.4,1.3,1.5,0.85,1.0,0.6,2.0,1.8,1.7,1.2,1.2,1.4,0.8,0.9,0.5,PS,1.7,1.8,1.5,0.7,1.1,1.1,0.
41、7,1.2,0.9,Current,4%,-4%,7%,-37%,-45%,-28%,-45%,-21%,-60%,2011,2012,-10%,78%,-19%,73%,-2%,40%,-44%,-15%32%,-39%,57%,-45%,110%,-56%,80%,-56%,-29%61%,-42%,273%,-49%,7%,9.7 6.9,2.2,1.8,1.4,0.5,-37%,Jan 4,2013,Property MonthlyBuilding,Jan is an important time window for re-tightening,otherwise home pric
42、es hard tocontrolWe saw chasing high sentiment was prevailing across the physical property(say re-tighten first-time mortgages in big cities or extend property tax into moreWe continue suggest investors to hedge policy risks through pair-trade.Wevethe policy headwinds.We therefore suggest investors
43、to short names withhand,in our viewpoint,the risk/reward profile is still good for Sunac(1918 HK),Figure 7:Valuations of HK listed China developersCountry Garden 4.40 80 10.7 9.8Sino-ocean 5.92 34 16.0 13.71918.HK Sunac 6.15 18 11.8 10.5Source:Bloomberg,SWS Research,201310.510.46.79.3,20113.11.60.81
44、.7,20122.41.40.751.5,20132.31.20.71.3,ratio1.61.00.81.1,NAV disc-22%-36%-30%-27%,Shares Performance-12%69%121%122%-32%86%,Please refer to the last page for important disclosures,Page 6,Information Disclosure：,party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection wi
45、th this report to any of the analyst,the Company or the group,company(ies).A group company(ies)of the Company confirm that they,whether individually or as a group(i)are not involved in any market making activities,presently or within the last 12 months,have any investment banking relationship with t
46、he listed corporation reviewed.,Undertakings AnalystAnalyst,is used in this report.I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report.I have never been,am not,and will not be compensated directly or,indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein.,Disclosure
47、 with respect duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge.The clients may contact for the relevant disclosure,Introduction of Share Investment Rating,Security Investment Rating：,Buy：with a markup more than 20%better than that of the market；,Outperform：With a markup 5%to 20%better than that of
48、the market；,Industry Investment Rating:,Underperform：markupmarkupthanmore better5%worse than that of the market；,Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole market；,Neutral：Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market；,Underweight：Industry performs worse than that of t
49、he whole market.,method to recommend theyourelative weightingssecurityinvestment.institutions decisionsdifferent ratingsellterminologiesshall berating standards.actual situation,relative rating,available at our sales personnel if you are interested.,HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report.,Di
50、sclaimer：,as its client notwithstanding his receipt of this report.,This report is based on public information,however,the authenticity,accuracy or completeness of such information is not warranted by the Company.The,or purchase of any security or other investment instruments.,materials,tools,opinio
