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1、PublicDisclosureAuthorized,PublicDisclosureAuthorized,PublicDisclosureAuthorized,PublicDisclosureAuthorized,TheWorldBankState and Trends ofthe Carbon Market 2007Washington,D.C.-May 2007Funded by World Bank Institute-CF AssistIn cooperation withthe International Emissions Trading Association,39923,ST
2、ATE AND TRENDS OF,THE CARBON MARKET 2007,Karan Capoor,Sustainable Development Operations,World Bank,Philippe Ambrosi,Development Economics Research Group,World Bank,The findings and opinions expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors.They do not necessarily reflect,the views
3、of the World Bank or of any of the Participants in the Carbon Funds managed by the World Bank.,ACKNOWLEDGMENTS,We are grateful to many of our colleagues in the carbon market for their,cooperation and assistance in preparing this report.In particular we wish tothank Edwin Aalders,Roberto Aiello,Isabe
4、l Alegre,Alexandra Amerstorfer,Ellysar Baroudy,Valentin Bellassen,Ulla Blatt Bendtsen,Abhishek Bhaskar,Veronique Bishop,Martina Bosi,Benoit Bosquet,Marcos Castro,HocineChalal,Charles Cormier,Jane Ebinger,Garth Edward,Andy Ertel,JaafarFriaa,Pablo Fernandez,Anita Gordon,Maarten Jos de Jonge,Abyd Karma
5、li,Alexandre Kossoy,Jakob Linulf,Vincent Mages,Andrei Marcu,RenatoMarioni,Marco Monroy,Lucy Mortimer,NatSource,John OBrien,AndreaPinna,Alexandrina Platonova-Oquab,Neeraj Prasad,Venkata Ramana Putti,Eliano Russo,Laurent Segalen,Sara Stahl,Guy Turner,Jari Vayrynen,BruceUsher,Kris Voorspools,Xueman Wan
6、g,Bernhard Zander as well asnumerous others choosing to remain unnamed colleagues from various firmsand governments around the world as well as Regional Operations andCarbon Finance Unit staff at the World Bank.,The“STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2007”is supported byresources from the CF-Assi
7、st program,managed by the World Bank Institute.,I,II,2.1,2.2,2.3,III,3.1,3.2,3.3,3.4,3.5,IV,4.1,4.2,4.3,4.4,4.5,4.6,4.7,4.8,TABLE OF CONTENTS,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.3,MARKET STRUCTURE AND METHODOLOGY.8,SETTING THE STAGE:ALLOWANCES AND PROJECT-BASED TRANSACTIONS,IN THE CARBON MARKET.8SEGMENTS OF THE CARBO
8、N MARKET.9METHODOLOGY.9,ALLOWANCE-BASED MARKETS.11EU ETS IS THE LARGEST CARBON MARKET BY FAR.11EU ETS.11Market Volatility.12Market Differentiation and Shift from Phase I to Phase II Market.13Submission of NAPs II.13The EU Commissions Process of Assessment of NAPs II.13Revised Allocations for Phase I
9、I.14Any limits on JI/CDM in Phase II(Suplementarity)?.16What Have we Learned from the EU ETS so far?.16EU ETS as a Functional Market.16EU ETS as an Environmental Tool.16NEW SOUTH WALES GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT SCHEME.17CHICAGO CLIMATE EXCHANGE.18THE UK ETS.19,PROJECT-BASED MARKETS.20CARBON MARKET EX
10、PANDS.20WHO IS BUYING?.22Market Share.23Outlook for Buyers.23WHO IS SELLING?.24Asia Dominates the Market.24Systematic Bias in Favor of Large,Industrial Opportunities?.25JI:Moves East.26CARBON ASSET CLASSES AND TECHNOLOGIES.27Industrial Gases Still Dominate.27Methane in the Market.28Share of Clean En
11、ergy Jumps.28LULUCF and Agro-forestry Credits.28JI Enters Market.29What is Next?.30INSIGHTS ON THE PRICE OF PROJECT-BASED ASSETS.31Chinas Influence on Pricing.32CER Index.32Guaranteed CERs and Issued CERs.32The Rise of the Secondary Market.32TERMS OF PROJECT CONTRACTS.34DEMAND ON OTHER FRONTS:NORTH
12、AMERICA AND THE VOLUNTARY MARKETS.35North America and the Carbon Market.35The Rise of the Voluntary Markets:Caveat Emptor?.36IS THERE A POST 2012 MARKET?.38,V,5.1,5.2,5.3,5.4,5.5,OUTLOOK.39STILL SOME STRONG DEMAND ON THE PRIMARY JI AND CDM MARKETS.39GIS AND AAUS.40SECONDARY MARKET FOR CERS.41VOLUNTA
13、RY MARKET:GAINING MOMENTUM?.41BEYOND THE CARBON MARKET.42,GLOSSARY.43,I,I,STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2007EXECUTIVE SUMMARYN A YEAR that the need for future action to reduce the risks of climate change has figuredprominently on the international agenda,a variety of approaches are being imp
14、lemented to reducecarbon emissions.These range from efforts by individuals and firms to reduce their climate footprintsto initiatives at city,state,regional and global levels.Among these are the commitments ofgovernments to reduce emissions through the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Changea
15、nd its 1997 Kyoto Protocol,and Europes carbon constraint for electricity generators and industryunder the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme(EU ETS).The carbon markets are aprominent part of the response to climate change and have an opportunity to demonstrate that they canbe a credible and cen
16、tral tool for future climate mitigation.Table 1:Carbon Market at a Glance,Volumes&Values in 2005-06,2005,2006,Volume(MtCO2e),Value(MUS$),Volume(MtCO2e),Value(MUS$),Allowances,EU ETSNew South WalesChicago ClimateExchangeUK-ETSSub total,321610328,7,90859317,971,1,1012010na1,131,24,35722538na24,620,Pro
17、ject-based transactions,Primary CDMSecondary CDMJIOther complianceSub totalTOTAL,341101120382710,2,417221681872,89410,864,4502516175081,639,4,813444141795,47730,098,The carbon market grew in value to an estimated US$30 billion in 2006(23 billion),three timesgreater than the previous year(see Table 1
18、).The market was dominated by the sale and re-sale ofEuropean Union Allowances(EUAs)at a value of nearly$25 billion under the EU ETS(19 billion).Project-based activities primarily through the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM)and JointImplementation(JI)grew sharply to a value of about US$5 billion in
19、2006(3.8 billion).Thevoluntary market for reductions by corporations and individuals also grew strongly to an estimatedUS$100 million in 2006(80 million).Both,the Chicago Climate Exchange(CCX)and the NewSouth Wales Market(NSW)saw record volumes and values traded in 2006.EU ETS Phase I demonstrated t
20、hat a carbon price signal in Europe succeeded in stimulating emissionsabatement both within Europe and especially in developing countries.Following the release ofverified 2005 emissions data,it became clear,however,that the 2005-07 emissions cap had not been3,STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 20
21、07,set at an appropriate level relative to what actual emissions were in that period.As a result,marketexpectations and the Phase I price signal were based on incorrect assumptions of the carbonconstraint,leading to high volatility in the EUA market.The EU Commission stated that Phase I wasa“learnin
22、g phase”and assured the market that it would assess second period plans“in a manner thatensures a correct and consistent application of the criteria in the Directive and sufficient scarcity of,allowances in the EU ETS.”1 Market interest in the second half of 2006 shifted out of Phase I,and,began to
23、focus on Phase II based on expectations that those caps would be much more stringent.,In contrast to a highly volatile 2006 EUA market,project-based assets showed greater price stability,while transacted volumes also grew steadily.Developing countries supplied nearly 450 MtCO2e ofprimary CDM credits
24、 in 2006 for a total market value of US$5 billion(3.8 billion).Average pricesfor Certified Emission Reductions(CERs)from developing countries were up marginally in 2006 atUS$10.90 or 8.40(with the vast majority of transactions in the range of US$8-14 or 6-11).Chinacontinued to have a dominant market
25、-share of the CDM with 61%and set a relatively stable pricefloor for global supply of CERs.,In 2006,Joint Implementation(JI)projects from economies in transition saw increasing interest frombuyers,with 16.3 MtCO2e transacted(up 45%over 2005 levels)with Russia,Ukraine and Bulgariaproviding more than
26、60%of transacted volumes so far at an average price of US$8.70(6.70).Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2007 indicate at least the same volumes had already transactedin the first three months alone.,Buyers found it easier to close transactions than six months earlier,while sellers managed car
27、bonprice risk by favoring fixed price forward contracts.CER assets traded considerably higher insecondary markets(in a range of US$14.30-19.50 or 11-15)than in primary transactions,althoughaccurate volume data were difficult to confirm for secondary transactions.,Since 2002,a cumulative 920 MtCO2e(e
28、quivalent to 20%of EU-15 emissions in 2004)have beentransacted through primary CDM transactions for a value of about US$8 billion(6 billion).Hydrofluorocarbon(HFC-23)reduction and nitrous oxide(N2O)destruction projects accounted forapproximately half of the market volumes,while renewable energy and
29、energy efficiency transactionstogether accounted for nearly 21%of the CDM market over the same period.,European buyers dominated the primary CDM&JI market with 86%market share(versus 50%in2005)with Japanese purchases sharply down at only 7%of the primary market in 2006.The U.K.,where the City of Lon
30、don is home to a number of global financial institutions,led the market for asecond consecutive year with nearly 50%of project-based volumes,followed by Italy with 10%.Private sector buyers,especially banks and carbon funds,continued to buy large volumes of CDMassets,while public sector buyers conti
31、nued to dominate JI purchases.A large number ofinternational financial institutions and funds engaged in secondary transactions of carbon portfolioswith other banks(primarily in Europe)or companies facing compliance obligations(in both Europeand Japan).,European buyers reported that they increasingl
32、y asked for and obtained zero-premium call options topurchase emission reductions beyond 2012.For the most part,the strike price in these contracts wasthe same as the contract for pre-2012 assets.Others reported a right of first refusal for post-2012vintages at a future time for an unspecified“marke
33、t price.”,1.See“Communication from the Commission to the Council and to the European Parliament on the assessment ofnational allocation plans for the allocation of greenhouse gas emission allowances in the second period of the EU EmissionsTrading Scheme”,COM(2006)725,29 Nov.2006,Brussels.,4,4.,5.,ST
34、ATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2007,Outlook,Most market players stated that considerable price risk and likely volatility remained in the market,for both CERs and EUAs.There is a consensus emerging2 among market analysts that the expected,shortfall in the EU ETS Phase II is likely to be in the
35、range of 0.9 billion to 1.5 billion tCO2e.Estimates for not-yet-contracted volumes from JI/CDM and projected EU shortfalls are very similar toeach other in these projections(unless additional demand before 2012 and the promise of higherprices stimulates additional JI/CDM supply).,The current project
36、ed demand-supply balance excluding Canada(and residual demand from Japan)implies that the price of CERs/ERUs is likely to help set the market equilibrium price for EUAs inPhase II.EU ETS companies would be the prime beneficiary of this balance provided that:nosignificant Japanese or Canadian competi
37、tion appears for these assets;and provided that there are nosurprises from higher than expected under-delivery of CERs/ERUs;as well as no consistent anomaliesover the five years from weather or from fuel prices;or any major technological inflection points inthat time period.The prospect of EU ETS Ph
38、ase III and the ability to bank allowances across thesecond and third periods gives a longer time planning horizon to market players considering newinvestments for abatement from both the CDM/JI and marginal abatement within the EU.,The April 26,2007 climate change announcement by the Government of
39、Canada calls forimprovements in carbon intensity leading to an emission target of 20%below 2006 levels by 2020(assumed to be 150 MtCO2e by Canada).The approach incorporates emissions trading and alsoincludes the idea of early action and banking and allows CERs for up to 10%of the projectedshortfall.
40、If these assumptions are true,then some demand from Canada could enter the CER marketrelatively soon.,Developments in California,the eastern United States and Australia hold some promise of marketcontinuity beyond 2012.There is continued debate,especially in California,regarding whetheremissions tra
41、ding,including offsets from overseas will be allowed.Precise rules to be developed willclarify to what extent these emerging carbon markets will seek to maximize value from high qualityoffsets no matter where they are sourced from.At least two pending pieces of draft federal legislationbefore the U.
42、S.Senate include provisions that would welcome overseas credits.,The carbon market and associated emerging markets for clean technology and commodities haveattracted a significant response from the capital markets and from experienced investors,includingthose in the United States.Analysts estimated
43、that US$11.8 billion(9 billion)had been invested in,58 carbon funds as of March 20073 compared to US$4.6 billion(3.7 billion)in 40 funds as of May2006.4 50%of all capital driven to the carbon value chain is managed from the UK.5 Most of the,newly raised money,of private origin,came to the sell-side(
44、project development and carbon assetcreation)which currently represents 58%of the capitalization.A key indicator of interest in aligned,2.Based on estimates from average of(central)estimates from Fortis,Merrill Lynch,New Carbon Finance,Point Carbon,Socit Gnrale and UBS for EU-ETS shortfall and deman
45、d for CDM and JI.,3.New Carbon Finance,“UK in Pole Position as Carbon Funds Surge but More Funds required”.Press release 4 April2007,.,See R.Bulleid,“The capital begins to flow”,Environmental Finance,April 2006.,See New Carbon Finance,op.cit.,5,STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2007,and closely
46、related fields is the record US$70.9 billion in clean technology investments in 2006,6 withmajor investments(and announcements)from well-known investment banks.7,Most public companies in the carbon space are in a fast-growth mode and are yet to show a profit.One public company delayed its public dis
47、closure in the wake of an unfavorable analyst report.Somecompanies cited the delay in the operations of the International Transaction Log(ITL)as a risk thatwould made it more difficult to earn and book revenues from CER spot sales this year.,There was increased consolidation in the sector and eviden
48、ce of growing interest in the U.S.markets.A prominent investment bank bought a sizeable stake in a leading project development and assetmanagement company.Another company acquired a boutique analyst firm in the United States,whilea third acquired a smaller company in Washington DC specializing in de
49、veloping Project DesignDocuments(PDDs).Several European entities opened offices in the United States citing the need todevelop a presence in this potentially large market.Reports of early offset transactions in NorthAmerica filtered in with prices reported in a very wide price range starting at arou
50、nd US$1.50,e.g.from pre-compliance buyers for emission reductions from enhanced recovery from oil and gas fields.,The most promising impact of carbon markets has been its impact on innovation as smart capital takesan early,long-term bet on the quickly growing emerging market for environmentally-orie
