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1、NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,曼哈顿下城区的重建,曼哈顿下城区发展集团,September 2002,机密,This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey it is not a complete record of the
2、 discussion.,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,1,摘要,曼哈顿下城区发展公司期望通过发展当地经济及提高生活质量来重建曼哈顿下城区(简称：下曼哈顿)的目标。,完成上述目标的主要动力来自以下三个方面:商业,观光业,房地产业.在这些方面内曼哈顿下城区面临的挑战分别来自911之前的地区态势及911之后所带来的直接或间接的影响。,三个动力均可从以下四个主要层面进行激励：交通基础设施，商业不动产，稳定成熟的行业协会，激励程序。,商业的挑战是商业机构的大批离去及相应丢失的工作机会使得不动产需求低迷，交通设施遭受破坏，并且重创了已经受到限制的零售业。,观光业的挑战是游客的减少、
3、主要设施的破坏并影响了整个纽约市的观光收入。,房地产业的挑战依然是不断增长的住宅需求、社区建设及改善城区之间的交通联结。,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,2,下曼哈顿的重建努力可以围绕着三个主要动力源。,*Includes estimated$52-$64 billion in lost GCP,$22 billion in lost physical capital,and$9 billion in lost human capital*Estimated 65%of total loss is in Lower Manhattan,south of Chambers S
4、ource:New York City Office of the Comptroller;New York City Partnership,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,3,下曼哈顿的重建努力的三个主要动力源。,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,4,9/11之后的经济衰退：在时间及深度上，纽约市都超过美国其他地方。,*Percent changes are quarter-to-quarter,based on chain-weighted 1996 dollars*Includes 83,000 actual jobs lost from 9/01
5、 to 6/02 and loss of 63,000 projected jobs which would have resulted from citys recovery from recession,out to 2004 Source:U.S.Department of Commerce;New York City Office of the Comptroller;Bureau of Labor Statistics,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,5,因为911超过 1/3的下曼哈顿的工作岗被转移。近一半的IT岗位看起来永远消失了。,1South of Cha
6、mbers2Estimated as of 9/10/20013As of June 2002 Source:TenantWise,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,6,位于下曼哈顿的纽约市工作岗位近来得到缓慢地恢复，但却停留在十年前的低水平上。,*South of Houston,excluding Battery Park City which accounts for roughly 4%of Lower Manhattan jobs;all figures represent Q1 data,except where indicated otherwise;effec
7、ts of 9/11 are not likely to be represented fully in the Q301 dataSource:Bureau of Labor Statistics,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,7,911之前，下曼哈顿的不动产走势与中心区相挂钩,1South of Canal2Annual average for Class A space3Lower Manhattan rent as a percent of Midtown rentSource:Insignia/ESG;REBNY,Ratio3 82%78%76%73%72%69
8、%71%70%,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,8,9/11后,房屋出租率下降，尽管可出租的面积大幅度减少。,*South of Canal Street,does not include available sublease space,current available sublease space 7.5 million implying 80%occupancy rate*Represents 21%of Class A space below Chambers Street;another 16.6 million sq.ft.was damagedSource:
9、Group of 35 Financial Report;Cushman NYCP report,Insignia/ESG,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,9,911前，下曼哈顿的城市轨道交通面临严重的运能挑战。,世界上最大密集度的交通基础设施,但是.,其他问题:去机场的道路少得可怜陈旧的地铁系统从1936年起就没更新改造过下曼哈顿地区没有统一的地铁站台(centrally concentrated)道路系统之间缺乏联系,那怕是近在咫尺.,Source:PANYNJ and LMDC Urban Planning and Transportation Study Phase
10、 One Summary Report,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,10,1As of 12/01;PATH system connects Lower Manhattan with Hudson,Bergen,And Essex counties,and links with NJ Transit rail lines2Below Canal Street;subway entries only3As of 9/16/02,the Cortland Street station on the 1,9 line remains closedSource:PANYNJ a
11、nd LMDC Urban Planning and Transportation Study Phase One Summary Report,9/11 全面减少了下曼哈顿地区的交通流量,并大大改变了原有交通流向,17%drop,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,11,合理的区域定位是复兴商业的关键,关键的行业协会稳定与整合也要包括进来,1South of Houston2Other includes Other Manufacturing,Construction,Wholesale,and Other Services3Professional services def
12、ined as engineering,accounting,research,management and related services,legal services,and business servicesSource:Bureau of Labor Statistics,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,12,金融服务业,特别是证卷和保险公司是下曼哈顿的命脉所在,*South of HoustonSource:Bureau of Labor Statistics,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,13,位于纽约之外的美国金融业巨头,Source:
13、SNL Financial Database,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,14,下曼哈顿的租金价位吸引了许多国际机构，新的稳定的行业协会将加强这一吸引力。,*Determined for 12-month period ending June 2002*As defined by total 2001 revenuesSource:CompuStat Global Vantage database;CB Richard Ellis Global Market Rents,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,15,911前，曼哈顿的零售业在全纽约来说是比较
14、弱的，911后更加疲软。,*South of Chambers;does not include Soho and ChinatownSource:New York City Partnership;Downtown Alliance Survey of 842 Lower Manhattan Retail Establishments,January 2002,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,16,下曼哈顿的重建努力的三个主要动力源。,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,17,作为911的一个结果，观光收入的减少对纽约来说是可以预料的，即观光人数的减少及观
15、光客的开销减少。,*Includes visitor and resident revenues*Includes the Marriott World Trade Center,the Marriott World Financial Center,the Millennium Hilton,and the Embassy Suites HotelSource:NYC New York City Arts Coalition survey,Effects of 9/11 on Lower Manhattan culture and tourismDestruction of the WTC
16、observation deck(1.9 million annual visitors)Temporary closings of the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island(5.5 million annual visitors)23,500 people in tourism-related jobs laid off with an additional 9,300 possible layoffs Estimated$500 million in damage at four hotels*23%decrease in hotel revenue p
17、er room for Q4 2001 compared to Q4 2000Estimated$49 million in losses and new expenses for area nonprofit arts groups,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,18,下曼哈顿拥有大量的历史文化观光点,但从观光者那里得到的收入却很少。,*South of Canal StreetSource:Downtown Alliance;New York City Partnership Report;DowntownNOW,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,1
18、9,下曼哈顿的重建努力可以围绕着三个主要动力源。,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,20,*South of Houston*Includes zip codes 10004,10005,10006,10280Source:2000 U.S.Census;Claritas,在过去10年，下曼哈顿的居住人口增长较好地支撑了下曼哈顿的发展。而且在911后，人口继续保持回流。,Combating the effects of 9/11 will require continued support of residential initiatives About 1 in 8 Low
19、er Manhattan*residents were in the close vicinity of ground zeroTo date,LMDC has put$300 million into residential retention and attraction programs.Battery Park City occupancy has risen from 50-70%in February 2002 to 90-95%in May 2002,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,21,下曼哈顿的重建努力的三个主要动力源。,NY-ZXK.540/020619
20、YjmedSL1,22,重建下曼哈顿在商业、观光业、房地产业方面的可行性目标,为激发商业活力，保持下曼哈顿国内第三大CBD的位置，应当：确保现有的商业基础,包括最主要的金融服务业公司、纽约证交所和其他的主要机构。吸引2-4家主要的机构，如全球性的金融服务公司、全球性公司总部、专业性服务公司，或主要的全球性的非政府机构。,为激活零售业，下曼哈顿应当：发展带有“城市感”的街区景观，整合商业中心的街区要道和集散地以吸引越来越多的特色店及专卖店。在新市区集散地创造独特的一体化的购物体验。吸引2-4家主要的购物中心,增强游客体验，增加观光场所的吸引力，同时为居民创造更好的环境。下曼哈顿应当：应加强纪念馆
21、与周边环境的文化协调。为日益增长的观光者提供合适的服务。以观光和文化的眼光进一步包装与提升市区景象。增加1-2处有吸引力文化景观。,为应付增长的长驻居民人口数量，扩展社区认同感和城市感，下曼哈顿应当提供额外的公共社区资源支持现有及未来的居住人口需求。,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,23,商业，观光业，房地产业这三个动力均可从以下四个主要层面进行激励。,主要动力,期望目标,通过经济增长与提高生活质量来重建下曼哈顿城区,NY-ZXK.540/020619YjmedSL1,24,下曼哈顿必须大大改善其交通基础设施，,超越911之前的水平，增加下曼哈顿的交通流动。这是一个构思与打造面向21世纪的交通基础设施的大好机会。,根据基本的原则可以看出每个层面的特点,原则,下曼哈顿必须提升其商业不动产价值，使其具备更完善的功能，更合理的价位，更有审美意义和更能满足当前及未来的商业需求。并与其国内第三大CBD的地位相符合。,下曼哈顿必须保持现有的主要行业协会，同时要吸引5-10家显著的新的成熟的与商业，观光业及房地产业相关的行业协会。,下曼哈顿必须提供引人注目的激励机制，创建城区重建的活力及加速城市经济生活的互动繁荣。,四个层面,下曼哈顿也要继续提升其居住环境水准,即要适合当前及未来的居民需求，也要建造出更高集成度城市生活区。,
