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1、PublicDisclosureAuthorized,PublicDisclosureAuthorized,PublicDisclosureAuthorized,PublicDisclosureAuthorized,44607TheWorldBankState and Trends ofthe Carbon Market 2008,Washington,D.C.Funded by World Bank Institute-CF Assist,May 2008,STATE AND TRENDS OF,THE CARBON MARKET 2008,Karan Capoor,Sustainable
2、Development Operations,World Bank,Philippe Ambrosi,Climate Change Team,World Bank,The findings and opinions expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors.They do not necessarily reflect,the views of the World Bank or of any of the participants in the carbon funds managed by the
3、World Bank.This report is not intended to form the basis of an investment decision.,ACKNOWLEDGMENTS,W e would like to acknowledge and appreciate the input and insight provided,by Evolution Markets and Natsource LLC.We are also grateful to our manycolleagues in the carbon market for their cooperation
4、 and assistance inpreparing this report.Special thanks are due to Johannes Heister,AlexandreKossoy and Saima Qadir for their contribution to this study.,We wish to also extend our thanks to Edwin Aalders,Mike Ashford,ZarinaAzizova,Ellysar Baroudy,Noreen Beg,Valentin Bellassen,Ulla BlattBendtsen,Abhi
5、shek Bhaskar,Martina Bosi,Benedikt von Butler,MarcosCastro,Michelle Caulfield,Francesca Cerchia,Charles Cormier,DavidCosta-Dsa,Karen Degouve,Jane Ebinger,Garth Edward,Andy Ertel,PaulEzekiel,Will Ferretti,Julie Godin,Anita Gordon,Kate Hamilton,NathalieJohnson,Anya Kareena,Odin Knudsen,Martin Lawless,
6、Jakob Linulf,Karen McClellan,Vincent Mages,Renato Marioni,Marco Monroy,LucyMortimer,Ken Newcombe,John OBrien,Roon Osman,AlexandrinaPlatonova-Oquab,Venkata Ramana Putti,Monali Ranade,Rama ChandraReddy,Lasse Ringius,Eliano Russo,Laurent Segalen,Chandra ShekharSinha,Alexandra Soezer,Sara Stahl,Guy Turn
7、er,Bruce Usher,JariVyrynen,Kris Voorspools,Michael Walsh,Xueman Wang as well asnumerous others choosing to remain unnamed colleagues from various firmsand governments around the world as well as Regional Operations andCarbon Finance Unit staff at the World Bank.,The“STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MA
8、RKET 2008”is supported byresources from the CF-Assist program,managed by the World BankInstitute.,I,II,2.1,2.3,2.4,III,3.1,3.2,3.3,3.4,3.5,3.6,3.7,TABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY.1ALLOWANCE-BASED MARKETS.7THE EU ETS IS STILL THE MAJOR CARBON MARKET,BY FAR.7,2.2,EU ETS,7,Is EU ETS Phase II Short?.
9、8Assessment of EU ETS Phase II.9The New Face of EU ETS in Phase II.11The Road Ahead to Phase III.12Analyzing Market Demand for the EU ETS in Phase II and Phase III Together.15NEW SOUTH WALES GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT SCHEME AND CARBON-WAKE-UP CALL INAUSTRALIA.15National ETS Proposed.15NSW and Uncerta
10、inty about Transition to National ETS.16Interest in Australian Voluntary Market Rises.16CHICAGO CLIMATE EXCHANGE.17PROJECT-BASED MARKETS.19MARKET MOMENTUM STRONG;WILL IT LAST?.19Volume Transacted in Primary Market Plateaus.19Challenges Facing the Carbon Market.21WHO IS BUYING?.24European Buyers Domi
11、nate.24Outlook:How much more Demand is Likely?.25WHO IS SELLING?.27China Dominates Primary CER Transactions.27India,Brazil and Africa.27Russia and Ukraine Dominate Potential JI Supply.28PROJECT TYPES.29CDM Delivers on Clean Energy.29The Rise and Fall of Industrial Gas.30Methane Madness.31Fugitive Em
12、issions.32Project Types Transacted in JI.32INSIGHTS ON PRICES AND CONTRACT TERMS FOR PROJECT-BASED ASSETS.32Price Differentiation.33Country of Origin.33CERs and ERUs.33Experienced Sellers,Known Technologies Command Premium.33,Issued CERs,.34,EUA Decoupling from CER?.34Fixed Forward Pricing Contracts
13、.34No Guarantees in the Primary Market.35Post-2012 Market.35SECONDARY MARKET FOR CERS:COMPLIANCE&RISK-MANAGEMENT.35REFORMING THE CDM.36Sustainable Development and the CDM:Myths and Reality.36Reducing Transaction Costs.37Methodologies and Innovation.39,IV,4.1,4.2,V,OTHER DEMAND,OTHER SUPPLY.41DEMAND
14、FROM OTHER FRONTS.41Voluntary Markets:an Opportunity for Pre-Compliance Assets?.41North American Markets:Demand for International Offsets?.41CLOSING THE KYOTO GAP WITH GIS?.43Green Investment Schemes(GIS).44Potential GIS/AAU deals in the offing?.44OUTLOOK.47Price Differentiation.47Market Continuity
15、Needs Action Now.48ANNEX I:INTRODUCTORY ELEMENTS TO KYOTO DEMAND AND SUPPLY.49Likely Demand for Kyoto Mechanisms(KMs)from Governments.49Private Sector Compliance Demand.50Total Demand for KMs.51Whats on the Supply Side?.51ANNEX II:INTRODUCTORY ELEMENTS TO DEMAND FOR OFFSETS IN U.S.AND CANADANASCENT
16、MARKETS.53Towards a Federal Cap-and-trade Scheme?.53Other Initiatives:State and Regional Emissions Trading Programs.55Canada:Proposed Target of 20%below 2006 Levels by 2020.56ANNEX III:MARKET STRUCTURE AND MARKET PLAYERS.59ALLOWANCES AND PROJECT-BASED TRANSACTIONS IN THE CARBON MARKET.60The Role of
17、Project-based Credits in the Market:Fungibility and Supplementarity.60Allowances and Project-based Emissions Reductions:Risk Profiles and Standardization.61SEGMENTS OF THE CARBON MARKET.61A Compliance-driven Market.61A Fragmented Carbon Market:Proliferation of Currencies and Poor Linking.62The Chall
18、enge of Linking Carbon Markets and Broadening the Scope of Carbon Finance to Achievethe Required Mitigation Effort.63Science-based Mitigation Targets.63Mitigation Potential.63FINANCIAL PRODUCTS AND EXCHANGES.64Financial Innovation.64A Year for Exchanges.65ANNEX IV:METHODOLOGY.67ANNEX V:GLOSSARY.69,I
19、,C,STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2008EXECUTIVE SUMMARYLIMATE CHANGE captured the publics imagination in 2007,as a major report prepared by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),a Nobel Peace Prize and the launch in Baliof the negotiation process for a post-2012 climate change re
20、gime,contributed to making climatechange a key part of the global economic and environmental debate.January 1,2008 also marked theformal start of the compliance period of the Kyoto Protocol and of Phase II of the European UnionEmission Trading Scheme(EU ETS).Table 1:Carbon Market at a Glance,Volumes
21、&Values in 2006-07,2006,2007,Volume(MtCO2e),Value(MUS$),Volume(MtCO2e),Value(MUS$),Allowances,EU ETSNew South WalesChicago Climate,1,1042010,24,43622538,2,0612523,50,09722472,Exchange,UK ETS,na,na,Sub total,1,134,24,699,2,109,50,394,Project-based transactions,Primary CDM*Secondary CDMJIOther Complia
22、nce&Voluntary TransactionsSub totalTOTAL,5372516336111,745,5,8044451411466,53631,235,55124041428742,983,7,4265,45149926513,64164,035,*:Clean Development Mechanism;:Joint ImplementationM:million.THE GROWTH OF THE CARBON MARKETThe carbon market is the most visible result of early regulatory efforts to
23、 mitigate climate change.Regulation constraining carbon emissions has spawned an emerging carbon market that was valued atUS$64 billion(47 billion)in 2007(see Table 1).Its biggest success so far has been to send marketsignals for the price of mitigating carbon emissions.This,in turn,has stimulated i
24、nnovation andcarbon abatement worldwide,as motivated individuals,communities,companies and governmentshave cooperated to reduce emissions.1,1,2,3,4,STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2008,Allowance markets,The EU ETS market has been successful in its mission of reducing emissions through internal
25、,abatement at home,1 and of stimulating emission reductions abroad.The European Commission,learning from the experience of Phase I,has strengthened several important design elements for EU,ETS Phase II.Along with recent EU proposals for Phase III,2 these improvements include tighter,emission targets
26、,stronger flexibility provisions for compliance(at least for EU Allowances,or EUA,although not for project-based credits,see below),more attention to internal EU harmonization and,most importantly,longer-term visibility for action to reduce emissions until 2020.These proposedreforms have helped crea
27、te confidence in emissions trading as a credible and cost-effective tool of,carbon mitigation.3,In 2007,US$50 billion(37 billion),almost entirely in Phase II allowances and derivative contractswere traded over-the counter,bilaterally,and,increasingly on exchange platforms that publish,transparent da
28、ta about price formation in the markets.4 Energy utilities and industrial companies,hedged their carbon exposure by buying the EUA and financial companies bought and sold the EUAfor their clients(“flow trading”)and for their own account(“proprietary trading”).,Project-based markets,In 2007,buyers al
29、so continued to show a strong appetite for primary project-based emissionreductions,reflected by continued growth in the project pipeline showing that 68 countries hadidentified and offered to reduce 2,500 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent(MtCO2e)throughover 3,000 projects.This potential s
30、upply received strong interest,mainly from private sector buyersand investors,who in 2007 transacted 634 MtCO2e from primary project-based transactions(up 8%from 2006)for a corresponding value of US$8.2 billion(6.0 billion),up 34%from 2006.,Compliance-driven market,CDM accounted for the vast majorit
31、y of project-based transactions(at 87%of volumes and 91%ofvalues)and JI saw transacted volumes doubling and values tripling in 2007 over the previous year.The CDM alone saw primary transactions worth US$7.4 billion(5.4 billion),with demand comingmainly from private sector entities in the EU,but also
32、 from EU governments and Japan.Thevoluntary markets,supporting activities to reduce emissions not mandated by policymakers,also sawtransacted volumes doubling to 42 MtCO2e and value tripling to US$265 million in 2007.There werereports of growing demand for voluntary“pre-compliance”credits for U.S.-b
33、ased forestry projectsunder the California Climate Action Registry(CCAR).,China dominates,Africa emerges,China was again the biggest seller,and expanded its market share of CDM transactions to 73%.Countries in Africa(5%)and Eastern Europe and Central Asia(1%)emerged in the carbon marketand offered b
34、uyers an opportunity to diversify their China-overweight portfolios.The share of Indiaand Brazil(6%)reflected a preference from some sellers favoring the sale of already issued CertifiedEmission Reductions(CER),of which there are a total of only 130 MtCO2e in the market so far.,Ellerman and Buchner
35、find that although some over-allocation of allowances had occurred in Phase I,thatconsiderable“internal abatement”had occurred in the EU ETS,in the range of an estimated 50-100 million tCO2e.Source:D.Ellerman and B.Buchner(2008).“Over-Allocation or abatement?A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Base
36、d on the2005-06 Emissions Data”,Environmental and Resource Economics,forthcoming.,On January 23,2008 the European Commission proposed the Climate action and renewable energy package,a,pillar of its climate change strategy with a vision to 2020 and beyond.,Australia,Japan and others announced that th
37、ey too would develop their own emissions trading schemes(ETS).The major European carbon marketplaces are the European Climate Exchange(ECX)and the London EnergyBrokers Association(LEBA).Markets and exchanges also emerged around the world,including New York,New Delhi&Mumbai,India and elsewhere.,2,5,6
38、,STATE AND TRENDS OF THE CARBON MARKET 2008,CDM delivers on clean energy,Carbon contracts from clean energy projects(energy efficiency and renewable energy)accounted fornearly two-thirds of the transacted volume in the project-based market,appropriately reflecting theCDMs mission of supporting emiss
39、ion reductions and sustainable development.These project typestypically use sound,road-tested technology,are operated by utilities or experienced operators,andhave predictable performance,resulting in CER issuances that are expected to yield between 70-90%of expected Project Design Document(PDD)volu
40、mes,based on current expectations.This explainswhy they are being targeted by buyers,now that the known industrial gas project types have beenmore or less contracted.,Prices and price differentiation,The growth in transacted values reflected higher prices for primary forward contracts,which had anav
41、erage price of 10 in 2007.Prices for primary market forward transactions were in the range of 8-13 in 2007 and early 2008.The generally higher prices reflected the intense competition and activityin the global market to encourage projects that reduce global emissions.Prices in the higher end ofthat
42、range typically rewarded projects that were further along in the CDM process(such as registeredprojects),projects that were being developed by experienced and established sponsors(low credit riskand performance risk),and/or for projects with high expected issuance yields.Spot contracts ofissued Cert
43、ified Emission Reductions were transacted at 16-17,a nice premium to the primary CER,but still at a discount to the EUA,reflecting a combination of the impact of the EuropeanCommissions 2020 proposal(see below),the time value of money,and some remaining proceduresrelated to the delay in connectivity
44、 of the International Transaction Log(ITL)to the EU.,Climate-friendly investment,Analysts estimated that US$9.5 billion(7 billion)were invested in 2007 in 58 public and privatefunds that either purchase carbon directly or invest in projects and companies that can generatecarbon assets.The total capi
45、talization of carbon vehicles could reach US$13.8 billion(9.4 billion)in 2008,with 67 such carbon funds and facilities.This capital inflow was characterized by asubstantial increase in the number of funds seeking to provide cash returns to investors and by morefunds getting involved earlier in the p
46、roject development process,taking larger risks through equity,investment in expectation of larger returns.5 The authors estimate that in 2007 alone,CDM leveraged,US$33 billion(24 billion)in additional investment for clean energy,which exceeded what had beenleveraged cumulatively for the previous fiv
47、e years since 2002.,Secondary markets,The biggest overall market development in 2007 and early 2008 was the emergence of the secondarymarkets.A segment of the secondary markets that the authors had discussed in the 2007 report hadlargely involved primary project developers providing project-specific
48、 guarantees,often along withcredit enhancement.,In 2007,as a wide range of procedural delays and risks of CER registration and issuances grew(seebelow),the carbon market innovated by providing portfolio-based guarantees.In these transactions,asecondary seller,typically a market aggregator,sold guara
49、nteed CER(gCER)contracts that weresecured through a slice of its carbon portfolios.These guarantees were also usually credit-enhanced,through the balance sheet of a highly-rated bank engaged by the secondary seller for this purpose.6,Some banks originated CER through spot contracts and sold gCER con
50、tracts forward,making smallmargins on a large number of transactions.This segment had greater price transparency and gCERcontracts were listed on major exchanges.,I.Cochran and B.Leguet(2007).“Carbon Investment Funds:The Influx of Private Capital”,Mission Climat,Caisse des Dpts(Paris:France).,Some a
