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1、Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaUtilities,PeriodicalUtility/AlternativeEnergy,Date4 December 2012Michael Tong,CFAEric Cheng,CFA,Update on China power output,gas,Research Analyst(+852)2203 6167,Research Analyst(+852)2203 6202,sector,Longyuan and HarbinSector newsChina November power ou
2、tput up 7.4%yoyAccording to the latest data from the State Electricity Regulatory Commission(SERC),as of 28 November 2012,Chinas November power output increasedby 7.4%yoy,hitting peak growth this year.In terms of daily dispatch volume,the daily power generation registered stable yoy growth since Oct
3、ober,increasing from-5.88%on 1 October to 7.13%on 25 November.Yu Yanshan,eric-Kai-Ting Wong CFAResearch Analyst(+852)2203 6235kai-Companies FeaturedBeijing Enterprises(0392.HK),HKD50.102011A 2012E 2013E,deputy director of the SERC general office,told the media that the growth in,P/E(x),19.75 18.51 1
4、4.34,power generation signals a gradual recovery in Chinas economy.China publishes 12th Five-Year Plan for natural gas,EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),10.61.4,11.81.4,10.01.3,According to the National Energy Administration(NEA),the government haspublished the 12th Five-Year Plan for natural gas,pursuant t
5、o which residentialusers of natural gas in China will reach 250m by 2015,accounting for 18%of,China Resources Power(0836.HK),HKD17.58,2011A 2012E 2013E,the total population.,P/E(x),18.36 12.97,9.56,The plan states that during the 12th Five-Year Period,the new additionaldiscovered conventional gas re
6、serve and coal-bed methane will reach 3.5tr,EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),8.91.3,8.61.4,6.71.3,cubic meters(cm)and 1tr cm,respectively.The natural gas supply capacity willreach 176bcm by 2015,of which conventional gas accounts for 138.5bcm,coal-to-gas accounts for 15-18bcm and coal-bed methane accounts
7、for 16bcm.EC attacks Germanys Renewable Energy ActCompany newsLongyuan issues USD400m perpetual bonds at 5.25%Longyuan announced it will issue USD400m worth of perpetual bonds at5.25%,which will be used to develop and expand the companys new energybusinesses and for the companys working capital need
8、s.Standard&Poorshas assigned a corporate rating of BBB+to the company.Harbin Electric wins 2x1,000MW ultra-supercritical thermal order inGuangdong provinceHarbin Electric recently signed a contract with Datang International to provide2x1,000MW ultra-supercritical thermal boiler/turbine/generator(BTG
9、)equipment for the latters Leizhou power project in Guangdong province.US import duties cast shadow on LDKs revenue,shipment forecastsLDK Solar reported its sixth straight quarterly loss and cut its full-year revenueforecast as it expects to ship fewer solar cells and panels due to high USimport dut
10、ies and weak demand in top-market Europe.Net loss widened toUSD136.9m(USD1.08/ADS)in 3Q12,from USD114.5m(USD0.87/ADS)in3Q11.Net sales halved to USD291.5m in 3Q12.,Longyuan Power(0916.HK),HKD5.06 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)16.5 9.9 8.3EV/EBITDA(x)10.9 7.9 7.5Price/book(x)1.5 1.1 1.0Dongfang Electric(1
11、072.HK),HKD12.98 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)14.8 7.7 7.2EV/EBITDA(x)8.0 2.2 1.3Price/book(x)2.8 1.3 1.1Huaneng Power Intl(0902.HK),HKD6.82 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)39.59 12.08 7.65EV/EBITDA(x)9.7 8.0 6.1Price/book(x)0.9 1.4 1.2BEWG(0371.HK),HKD1.84 Buy2011A 2012E 2013EP/E(x)24.79 14.64 11.49EV/EBITD
12、A(x)20.9 13.6 13.0Price/book(x)1.8 1.5 1.3Datang Renewable(1798.HK),HKD0.85 Buy2011A 2012E 2013E,See comps and share price analysis table on page 4.,P/E(x)EV/EBITDA(x)Price/book(x),12.7410.20.9,5.478.30.5,4.538.00.5,_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companie
13、s covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LO
14、CATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,4 December 2012UtilitiesUtility/Alternative EnergySector newsChina publishes 12th Five-Year Plan for natural gas(NEA website)According to the National Energy Administration(NEA),the government has publishedthe 12th Five-Year Plan for natural gas,pursuant to wh
15、ich residential users of naturalgas in China will reach 250m by 2015,accounting for 18%of the total population.The plan states that during the 12th Five-Year Period,the new additional discoveredconventional gas reserve and coal-bed methane will reach 3.5tr cubic meters(cm)and1tr cm,respectively.The
16、natural gas supply capacity will reach 176bcm by 2015,ofwhich conventional gas accounts for 138.5bcm,coal-to-gas accounts for 15-18bcm andcoal-bed methane accounts for 16bcm.In addition,by 2015,the discovered shale gas reserve will amount to 600bcm andrecoverable volume will amount to 200bcm,with an
17、nual output of 6.5bcm.Regarding the natural gas,the plan guides that Chinas imported natural gas volumewill reach 93.5bcm by 2015.During the 12th Five-Year Period,the new additionalnatural gas pipeline length will reach 44,000km,new additional deliver capacity willamount to 150bcm,new additional gas
18、 storage working volume will reach 22bcm(accounting for 9%of total gas consumption in 2015)and urban emergency and peakadjustment gas storage capacity will reach 1.5bcm.China November power output up 7.4%yoy(Xinhua)According to the latest data from the State Electricity Regulatory Commission(SERC),a
19、s of 28 November 2012,Chinas November power output increased by 7.4%yoy,hitting peak growth this year.In terms of daily dispatch volume,the daily powergeneration registered stable yoy growth since October,increasing from-5.88%on 1October to 7.13%on 25 November.Yu Yanshan,deputy director of the SERC
20、generaloffice,told the media that the growth in power generation signals a gradual recovery inChinas economy.EC attacks Renewable Energy Act(Solarzoom)German newspaper Hansdelsblatt reported that the European Commission(EC)isattacking Germanys Renewable Energy Act(EGG),citing an internal record of t
21、hediscussion between the environment and economy ministries and representatives fromthe EC.The EC has previously criticised certain aspects of the EEG,but not the entireact.The EUs competition commissioner,Joaquin Almunia,has also put the EEG inquestion,criticising the exemption of energy-intensive
22、companies from the grid usagefee scheme.The EC is now planning to launch a probe of the state aid given to thesector,which will happen in February 2013,according to the discussion record.Company newsLongyuan issues USD400m perpetual bonds at 5.25%(company announcement)Longyuan announced it will issu
23、e USD400m worth of perpetual bonds at 5.25%,whichwill be used to develop and expand the companys new energy businesses and for thecompanys working capital needs.Standard&Poors has assigned a corporate rating ofBBB+to the company.,Page2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,4 December 2012UtilitiesUtility/Alter
24、native EnergyHarbin Electric wins 2x1,000MW ultra-supercritical thermal order in Guangdongprovince(company announcement)Harbin Electric recently signed a contract with Datang International to provide2x1,000MW ultra-supercritical thermal boiler/turbine/generator(BTG)equipment for thelatters Leizhou p
25、ower project in Guangdong province.US import duties cast shadow on LDKs revenue,shipment forecasts(Reuters)LDK Solar reported its sixth straight quarterly loss and cut its full-year revenue forecastas it expects to ship fewer solar cells and panels due to high US import duties and weakdemand in top-
26、market Europe.Net loss widened to USD136.9m(USD1.08/ADS)in 3Q12,from USD114.5m(USD0.87/ADS)in 3Q11.Net sales halved to USD291.5m in 3Q12.LDK cut its full-year revenue forecast for the second time to USD950m-1bn,from itsprior outlook of USD1.1-1.5bn.It expects 4Q12 revenue of USD230-290m.Thecompany e
27、xpects to ship 50-80MW of cells and modules and 200-250MW of wafers in4Q12,compared with 3Q12 shipments of 161.9MW and 230.2MW.LDK also cut theupper end of its FY12 wafer shipment forecast to 960MW from 1.2GW,and that of itscell and module shipment outlook to 530MW from 750MW.,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong
28、Kong,Page3,-,4 December 2012UtilitiesUtility/Alternative EnergyComps and share price analysisFigure 1:CompsLast Updated:04 Dec 2012 08:26,Performance,Valuations,Returns&Gearing(%),Price,%to Mkt.Cap.Absolute Relative,P/E,EV/EBITDA,P/BV,RoE,ROA,Gearing Yield,Company,Ticker,Price,Rating,target,target,U
29、S$m,3m,3m,12F,13F,14F,12F 13F 14F,12F,13F,14F,12F 13F,12F 13F,12F,12F,China IPPs,Datang,0991.HK,HK$2.70,Buy,HK$3.50,30%,4,492,5%,-9%,8.7,5.7,4.7,8.6,7.4,6.6,0.7,0.6,0.6,8.3,11.8,1.3,1.8,331.8,4.0,CR PowerHuaneng,0836.HK0902.HK,HK$17.58HK$6.82,BuyBuy,HK$24.50HK$8.60,39%26%,10,65112,369,5%23%,-8%7%,13
30、.012.1,9.67.6,8.07.4,8.68.0,6.76.1,5.65.7,1.41.4,1.31.2,1.1 11.81.1 11.9,14.316.8,3.82.4,4.73.8,125.1247.2,3.14.1,HuadianCPI,1071.HK2380.HK,HK$2.40HK$2.04,BuyBuy,HK$3.50HK$3.25,46%59%,2,0971,344,1%-1%,-12%-13%,9.77.5,5.65.8,5.15.8,7.49.0,5.87.2,5.26.6,0.70.6,0.70.6,0.60.5,7.98.2,12.410.1,0.91.7,1.62
31、.2,381.4232.1,2.66.6,China Gas,Towngas ChinaBJ EnterprisesENN EnergyChina GasKunlun EnergyCR Gas,1083.HK0392.HK2688.HK0384.HK0135.HK1193.HK,HK$6.47HK$50.10HK$34.90HK$5.79HK$15.64HK$16.54,HoldBuyHoldHoldBuySell,HK$6.00HK$65.00HK$35.20HK$4.40HK$17.00HK$13.00,-7%30%1%-24%9%-21%,2,0547,3544,8033,39716,2
32、024,405,8%-3%14%32%19%10%,-5%-15%0%15%4%-4%,20.118.519.525.617.022.9,16.814.317.122.314.419.2,14.911.315.420.812.816.2,17.711.810.511.07.812.1,14.210.09.610.26.210.2,12.48.18.59.95.09.0,1.51.43.52.42.73.0,1.41.33.02.22.42.7,1.31.22.62.12.22.3,8.28.819.710.819.015.1,9.010.019.211.217.915.0,4.44.25.73
33、.27.64.9,5.04.86.24.27.75.0,27.415.747.781.42.827.4,1.01.81.31.01.70.8,China Water,Guangdong Inv.China EB IntlBEWG,0270.HK0257.HK0371.HK,HK$6.30HK$3.77HK$1.84,BuySellBuy,HK$6.40HK$3.00HK$2.00,2%-20%9%,5,0511,9471,626,10%-3%17%,-4%-15%3%,13.917.914.6,13.015.011.5,11.511.89.6,8.311.713.6,7.710.613.0,6
34、.48.812.1,1.71.81.5,1.61.71.3,1.5 12.71.5 14.61.2 10.3,12.711.712.1,8.37.23.4,8.95.93.7,2.221.677.4,3.21.42.0,China Power Equipment,Dongfang Elect.Shanghai Elect.Harbin Elect.,1072.HK2727.HK1133.HK,HK$12.98HK$3.06HK$6.25,BuyBuyBuy,HK$20.10HK$4.70HK$9.90,55%54%58%,3,3565,0631,110,25%-2%3%,9%-14%-10%,
35、7.78.94.6,7.28.04.3,6.67.03.9,2.21.7-0.6,1.31.1-1.0,0.50.5-1.4,1.31.00.6,1.10.90.5,1.0 18.00.8 11.70.5 13.3,16.511.912.6,3.23.32.8,3.33.42.7,(60.5)(63.0)(56.7),1.43.43.4,China Solar,GCL-Poly,3800.HK,HK$1.28,Hold,HK$1.20,-6%,2,557,8%,-5%,NM,NM,18.8,10.8,10.8,6.7,1.0,1.0,1.0,(1.0),(2.4),(0.3),(0.7),96
36、.7,China Wind,Longyuan Power,0916.HK,HK$5.06,Buy,HK$8.30,64%,4,873,2%,-11%,9.9,8.3,6.8,7.9,7.5,6.8,1.1,1.0,0.9 11.5,12.3,3.2,3.5,146.7,2.0,Huaneng Renewables,0958.HK,HK$1.18,Buy,HK$1.95,65%,1,286,37%,19%,6.8,4.4,3.5,7.7,7.0,6.3,0.6,0.6,0.5,9.8,13.5,2.2,3.2,188.6,2.2,Datang Renewable Powe 1798.HK,HK$
37、0.85,Buy,HK$1.50,76%,798,22%,7%,5.5,4.5,3.6,8.3,8.0,7.4,0.5,0.5,0.4,9.7,10.8,1.6,1.8,287.6,6.1,GoldwindCHSTE,2208.HK0658.HK,HK$3.04HK$2.55,HoldBuy,HK$3.00HK$4.00,-1%57%,908487,20%8%,5%-5%,45.77.4,17.25.2,11.44.4,15.55.7,11.54.9,10.14.4,0.50.4,0.50.4,0.50.3,1.15.4,2.97.3,0.52.3,1.33.2,44.872.2,0.53.4
38、,Hong Kong,CLP,0002.HK,HK$67.20,Buy,HK$69.50,3%,20,863,5%,-7%,16.4,15.2,13.8,8.7,7.9,7.4,1.9,1.8,1.7,10.8,12.3,4.1,4.9,74.9,3.9,HKGPower AssetsCKI,0003.HK0006.HK1038.HK,HK$21.10HK$68.35HK$47.45,HoldHoldHold,HK$16.20-23%HK$59.70-13%HK$47.00-1%,23,66118,82314,630,15%9%1%,2%-4%-11%,30.215.512.4,26.815.
39、312.0,25.215.211.8,16.217.545.6,14.116.438.4,13.015.533.0,4.22.31.6,3.92.21.5,3.62.11.4,15.615.714.1,15.114.813.1,7.69.811.2,7.49.610.8,28.625.15.4,2.03.73.7,Average,15.5,13.1,11.0,11.2,10.4,9.1,1.7,1.5,1.4,12.5,12.2,6.3,6.2,33.7,2.2,All estimates are DB estimates and all stock data is from Datastre
40、amDefinitions:1)Gearing is net debt/shareholders equity;2)EV is after deducting estimated value of associates;3)RoCE is defined as EBIT x(1-tax rate)divided by capital employedSource:Deutsche BankFigure 2:Share performance table,Last Updated:04 Dec 2012 08:26,avg.,avg.,avg.,Share price performancelo
41、cal currency,dailytrade,Relative performancelocal currency&local country index*,dailytrade,Share price statisticscurrent/current/,dailytrade,Company,Price,Rating,1wk,1m,3m,6m,12m,3yr,US$,1wk,1m,3m,6m,12m,3yr US$,6mnth*52w H,52w L,52W H 52W L 10yr H,10yr L US$,1yr*,China IPPs,Datang,HK$2.70,Buy,0%,-1
42、%,5%,1%,6%,-20%,3.2,-1%,-2%-9%,-7%,-5%,-3%,4.9,3.12,2.38,0.87,1.13,9.66,1.20,4.9,CR PowerHuaneng,HK$17.58HK$6.82,BuyBuy,2%3%,5%6%,5%23%,24%33%,13%66%,10%36%,12.711.7,1%3%,4%6%,-8%7%,13%22%,1%49%,34%66%,12.516.5,17.886.57,13.163.76,0.981.04,1.341.81,29.4610.80,2.703.02,11.314.0,HuadianCPI,HK$2.40HK$2
43、.04,BuyBuy,0%-2%,17%-3%,1%-1%,36%27%,64%22%,5%-2%,3.21.1,0%-3%,17%-12%-3%-13%,24%15%,47%9%,29%20%,2.72.8,2.512.26,1.421.52,0.960.90,1.691.34,6.135.30,1.001.16,1.81.8,China Gas,Towngas China,HK$6.47 Hold,3%,6%,8%,21%,46%,117%,1.1,3%,6%,-5%,10%,31%,165%,0.8,6.65,4.11,0.97,1.57,6.65,1.32,0.8,BJ Enterpr
44、ises,HK$50.10 Buy,-1%,0%,-3%,12%,19%,-5%,7.3,-1%,-1%-15%,2%,7%,16%,5.9,52.75,40.95,0.95,1.22,62.00,5.45,7.5,ENN Energy,HK$34.90 Hold,1%,8%,14%,16%,28%,79%,6.8,1%,8%,0%,6%,14%,118%,6.5,34.90,22.05,1.00,1.58,34.90,1.50,7.0,China Gas,HK$5.79 Hold,8%,33%,32%,46%,108%,67%,9.7,8%,32%15%,33%,86%,104%,4.8,5
45、.60,2.80,1.03,2.07,5.60,0.50,8.0,Kunlun Energy,HK$15.64 Buy,2%,10%,19%,19%,56%,81%,34.5,2%,9%,4%,9%,40%,121%,24.3,15.80,9.97,0.99,1.57,15.80,0.53,31.1,CR Gas,HK$16.54 Sell,-2%,-3%,10%,13%,46%,95%,26.7,-2%,-3%-4%,3%,31%,138%,7.3,18.46,10.52,0.90,1.57,18.46,1.11,6.0,China Water,Guangdong Inv.China EB
46、IntlBEWG,HK$6.30HK$3.77HK$1.84,BuySellBuy,3%-7%1%,-1%-8%2%,10%-3%17%,23%6%13%,31%22%-15%,46%0%-12%,5.77.51.6,3%-7%1%,-1%-8%2%,-4%-15%3%,12%-4%3%,17%79%9%22%-24%8%,4.36.71.8,6.444.282.30,4.332.681.35,0.980.880.80,1.451.411.36,6.444.503.14,0.890.160.11,4.75.51.7,China Power Equipment,Dongfang Elect.Sh
47、anghai Elect.Harbin Elect.,HK$12.98HK$3.06HK$6.25,BuyBuyBuy,-3%-4%-1%,2%-3%0%,25%-2%3%,-27%-13%-15%,-47%-9%-13%,-35%-16%-9%,7.17.12.6,-3%-5%-1%,1%-4%0%,9%-14%-10%,-34%-52%-21%-20%-19%2%-22%-23%11%,7.57.23.0,25.554.449.02,10.322.625.15,0.510.690.69,1.261.171.21,42.958.2228.50,0.401.420.69,8.38.13.1,C
48、hina Solar,GCL-Poly,HK$1.28,Hold,-4%,-7%,8%,-31%,-42%,-49%,45.9,-4%,-7%,-5%,-37%-48%-37%,24.7,3.23,1.13,0.40,1.13,5.58,0.41,29.8,China Wind,Longyuan PowerHuaneng Renewables,HK$5.06HK$1.18,BuyBuy,6%5%,1%21%,2%37%,8%-13%,-10%-37%,NANA,6.01.0,5%5%,1%-11%21%19%,-2%-21%,-20%NA-44%NA,4.40.6,7.182.16,4.490
49、.87,0.700.55,1.131.36,10.902.54,4.490.87,5.30.6,Datang Renewable PoweGoldwind,HK$0.85HK$3.04,BuyHold,9%2%,4%4%,22%20%,-16%-9%,-46%-28%,NANA,0.90.7,8%2%,3%4%,7%5%,-24%-17%,-52%NA-36%NA,0.40.6,1.575.38,0.712.47,0.540.57,1.201.23,2.4121.30,0.712.47,0.51.1,CHSTE,HK$2.55,Buy,-2%,-3%,8%,-19%,-30%,-86%,3.5
50、,-2%,-4%-5%,-26%,-38%-83%,2.4,5.47,2.09,0.47,1.22,23.60,2.09,3.7,Hong Kong,CLPHKGPower AssetsCKI,HK$67.20 BuyHK$21.10 HoldHK$68.35 HoldHK$47.45 Hold,1%1%0%2%,3%2%3%4%,5%15%9%1%,8%27%26%11%,0%30%18%11%,29%52%62%65%,20.213.618.113.0,1%0%-1%2%,1%0%2%2%,-7%2%-4%-11%,-9%7%6%-6%,-19%6%-3%-9%,28%50%60%63%,
