《CHINESEBANKS3Q12RESULTSPREVIEW：HEADLINEPROFITGROWTHMASKSWEAKFUNDAMENTALTRENDS1016.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《CHINESEBANKS3Q12RESULTSPREVIEW：HEADLINEPROFITGROWTHMASKSWEAKFUNDAMENTALTRENDS1016.ppt（13页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Top picks,Buy,Hold,Hold,Hold,Buy,Hold,Hold,Buy,Hold,Hold,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaBanking/FinanceBanks,IndustryChinese Banks-3Q12 Resultspreview,Date15 October 2012Industry UpdateTracy YuJudy Zhang,Headline profit growth masks weakfundamental trendsStock prices running ahead of economi
2、c recovery and policy boostWith H-share banks up 13%in the H-share market-driven rally(HSCEI Index:9%)over the past month,the current risk-reward seems unfavorable unlesseconomic data surprises to the upside in October.If not,we believe the marketis set for a disappointment,regardless of the stable
3、3Q headline results(weforecast NPAT to rise 15%yoy).With the 3Q results not fully indicative offundamental problems with the slowing economy,and reflecting the,Research Analyst(+852)2203 Sukrit KhatriResearch Associate(+852)2203,Research Analyst(+852)2203,incomplete impact of rate cuts and loan re-p
4、ricing,we expect the outlook forbanks in the next six months to be challenging and maintain our cautiousstance.Our top picks amongst the Chinese banks are ICBC and BOC.3Q results preview divergent operational performance between banksWe forecast 9M12 NPAT of Rmb806bn(up 17%yoy)for the listed Chinese
5、banks,with pre-provision profit growth of 15.9%and low credit costs of49bps.As for the 3Q results alone,we expect NPAT growth of 15%yoy,withpre-provision profit growth decelerating to 13.8%yoy.We attribute the stable,ICBC(1398.HK),HKD4.94China Construction Bank(0939.HK),HKD5.79Agri.Bank of China(128
6、8.HK),HKD3.22Bank of China(3988.HK),HKD3.08Bank of Communications(3328.HK),HKD5.75Companies Featured,headline profit growth to the incomplete impact of rate cuts and loan re-pricingand credit costs falling to 45bps of average loans.We forecast the big fourbanks to report stable NIM on limited loan r
7、e-pricing and sluggish fee incomegrowth,with a declining overdue loan balance on managements recoveryefforts but a slight rise in NPLs.In contrast,we expect other listed banks toreport a 10bps qoq decline in NIM,with more noticeable increases in bothoverdue loans and NPL balances.These trends should
8、 be obvious at CMB,CNCB,Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank.Low 3Q DGR might suggest weaker-than-expected sequential GDP recoveryThe decline in the systems deposit generation rate(DGR)to 0.89 in 3Q2012(1H 2012:1.51),with the continued deceleration in the average daily depositbalance,might not be supporti
9、ve of a sequential and quality GDP recovery in,ICBC(1398.HK),HKD4.94P/E(x)Div yield(%)Price/book(x)China Construction Bank(0939.HK),HKD5.79P/E(x)Div yield(%)Price/book(x),Buy2011A 2012E 2013E7.6 6.2 6.34.5 4.8 4.81.4 1.3 1.12011A 2012E 2013E7.7 6.4 6.64.5 4.7 4.51.4 1.2 1.1,China.With all the new de
10、posits generated in the last month of the quarter,compared to the average ratio of 53%in 2007-1H12,competition for deposits,Agri.Bank of China(1288.HK),HKD3.222011A 2012E 2013E,has further intensified,thus raising funding costs for banks and reducing theeffectiveness of rate cuts and RRR cuts in sti
11、mulating economic growth.Valuation and risks;seeking more clarity from Chinas October economic data,P/E(x)Div yield(%)Price/book(x),8.54.11.4,5.65.31.1,5.95.11.0,We value Chinese banks on a three-stage Gordon Growth Model(GGM).Onour estimates,the listed banks are trading at 1.2x 2012E P/B and 6.3x 2
12、013E,Bank of China(3988.HK),HKD3.082011A 2012E 2013E,P/E.Our top picks are ICBC and BOC.We are cautiously positive on the sharpRmb834bn increase in corporate deposits in September as this has historicallybeen the weakest month.However,if the increase in corporate cash flow was,P/E(x)Div yield(%)Pric
13、e/book(x),6.65.30.9,5.65.10.9,5.85.00.8,simply driven by fund raising through bond issuance and de-stocking insteadof an increase in demand then it might not be sustainable,with a potentialnegative impact in the future.Upside risks to our cautious view include large-,Bank of Communications(3328.HK),
14、HKD5.75,2011A 2012E 2013E,scale global monetary easing,such as QE3,falling Eurozone risks,and larger-than-expected policy stimulus in China.Downside risks:greater risk ofconsensus earnings downgrades on margin compression and deteriorating,P/E(x)Div yield(%)Price/book(x),6.51.81.0,5.64.10.9,6.04.20.
15、8,asset quality(see page 8).,China Merchants Bank-H,(3968.HK),HKD14.44_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deut
16、sche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a sing
17、le factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,15 October 2012BanksChinese Banks-3Q12 Results preview9M12 earnings previewWe forecast 9M12 NPAT of Chinese banks up 17%yoyWe estimate 16 listed Chinese banks will report
18、 net profit of Rmb806bn(up 17%yoy)in9M 2012,or 83%of the full year consensus net profit forecast of Rmb967bn.Webelieve the profit outlook for banks in 4Q12 might become more challenging in theabsence of a meaningful sequential GDP recovery,given the adverse impact of interestrate deregulation,disint
19、ermediation and regulatory restrictions on banks charging fees.We also expect most listed banks to set aside more credit costs in 4Q if a morecomprehensive review of asset quality is conducted.Figure 1:9M12 earnings preview and summary of key assumptions,Rmb mn,ICBC,CCB,ABC,BOC BCom,CMB CNCB,MSB SPD
20、B,INDB,PAB,BOBJ BONJ BONB CRCB,CEB,Total,Net interest income,311,754 260,301 252,060 189,563,88,190,65,898,55,722,56,968,53,399,52,447,24,454,18,177,5,819,6,631,9,364,38,807 1,489,554,Non-interest income,85,284,83,106,62,667,75,214,23,229,19,435,11,365,20,977,6,784,9,863,5,254,2,283,1,270,925,369,7,
21、388,415,413,Operating income,397,038 343,407 314,728 264,777 111,419,85,333,67,088,77,944,60,182,62,310,29,708,20,460,7,089,7,556,9,733,46,195 1,904,967,Operating expenses,(130,759)(114,784)(125,411)(111,228),(42,079)(34,091)(23,483)(32,602)(21,708)(20,511)(14,058),(5,688),(2,531),(2,997),(3,943)(16
22、,917)(702,788),Pre-provision profits,266,279 228,623 189,317 153,549,69,340,51,242,43,605,45,342,38,475,41,799,15,650,14,772,4,558,4,559,5,790,29,278 1,202,179,Provisions,(27,735)(21,861)(33,234)(13,520)(10,814),(6,041),(4,273),(6,905),(4,361),(7,869),(2,437),(2,325),(794),(532),(341),(3,784)(146,82
23、7),Pre-tax profit,240,233 206,770 156,082 140,384,58,526,45,229,39,311,38,437,34,154,34,021,13,285,12,449,3,760,4,030,5,449,25,532 1,057,652,Taxes,(55,376)(47,717)(35,198)(32,080)(13,159)(10,834),(9,515),(9,412),(8,067),(8,285),(3,023),(2,675),(696),(828),(1,294),(6,414)(244,573),Attributable net pr
24、ofit,184,732 158,728 120,851 103,152,45,290,34,396,29,484,28,479,25,979,25,603,10,154,9,770,3,055,3,202,4,145,19,092 806,113,YoY growth(%),Net interest income,16.7%,16.7%,12.8%,13.3%,15.8%,18.5%,18.6%,22.0%,21.3%,49.8%,38.3%,34.5%,24.5%,35.6%,24.0%,33.9%,18.0%,Non-interest income,4.8%,11.1%,10.9%,-3
25、.3%,25.8%,29.5%,32.0%,54.4%,28.3%,62.2%,74.0%,52.8%112.7%,13.2%,39.9%,51.4%,12.7%,Operating incomeOperating expensesPre-provision profits,13.9%15.1%13.4%,15.3%18.8%13.6%,12.5%16.4%10.0%,8.0%13.9%4.2%,17.7%17.8%17.7%,20.8%21.8%20.2%,20.7%21.8%20.1%,29.3%24.6%32.8%,22.1%12.1%28.5%,51.7%34.3%61.9%,43.5
26、%45.8%41.5%,36.3%24.5%41.5%,34.5%29.4%37.5%,32.4%25.0%37.8%,24.5%22.3%26.1%,36.4%33.0%38.5%,16.8%18.3%15.9%,Provisions,13.7%,4.9%,-19.8%,-16.7%,15.7%,8.4%,14.2%,18.7%,17.3%574.9%,96.5%416.5%,68.7%,44.5%,13.8%,68.1%,6.9%,Pre-tax profitTaxesAttributable net profit,13.1%14.5%12.8%,14.6%15.8%14.2%,19.4%
27、17.7%19.9%,6.6%6.0%7.1%,18.1%18.9%17.9%,21.8%24.0%21.2%,20.6%13.7%21.7%,35.7%40.1%33.2%,30.2%28.7%30.5%,37.6%40.7%36.3%,33.9%38.7%32.1%,24.6%20.7%25.7%,31.0%35.9%30.5%,28.4%42.5%25.2%,27.0%30.4%25.7%,34.8%34.0%35.1%,17.2%17.5%17.0%,Key assumptions,NIMGross loan yoygrowth(%),2.65%12.8%,2.72%13.3%,2.7
28、8%13.5%,2.09%11.2%,2.57%13.7%,3.05%14.4%,2.81%13.8%,3.14%17.5%,2.47%16.5%,2.65%16.3%,2.34%15.7%,2.29%18.3%,2.50%22.0%,3.31%22.0%,3.45%17.8%,2.66%13.6%,2.61%13.5%,Non-interest incomeyoy growth(%),4.8%,11.1%,10.9%,-3.3%,25.8%,29.5%,32.0%,54.4%,28.3%,62.2%,74.0%,52.8%112.7%,13.2%,39.9%,51.4%,12.7%,CIRC
29、redit cost,32.9%0.45%,33.4%0.43%,39.8%0.75%,42.0%0.27%,37.8%0.53%,40.0%0.46%,35.0%0.38%,41.8%0.72%,36.1%0.41%,32.9%1.00%,47.3%0.49%,27.8%0.71%,35.7%0.95%,39.7%0.53%,40.5%0.29%,36.6%0.54%,36.9%0.49%,Source:Deutsche Bank,company dataIn the unlikely scenario that the listed banks manage to sustain thei
30、r current profit growthrate into 4Q2012,the sectors annualized FY12 net profit of Rmb1,074bn,derived from ourforecast 9M12 data,would be 11.2%above current consensus estimates.,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,3,865,15 October 2012BanksChinese Banks-3Q12 Results previewFigure 2:Annualized FY12 earn
31、ings preview based on 9M12E,Rmb mn,ICBC,CCB,ABC,BOC,BCom,CMB,CNCB,MSB,SPDB,INDB,PAB,BOBJ,BONJ,BONB,CRCB,CEB,Total,Net interest income,415,672347,068 336,080252,751 117,587 87,864 74,297 75,957 71,198 69,930 32,605 24,236 7,758,8,841 12,486,51,742,1,986,072,Non-interest income,113,712110,808 83,557 1
32、00,285 30,971 25,914 15,153 27,969 9,045 13,151 7,005,3,044,1,694,1,234,492,9,851 553,884,Operating income,529,384457,876 419,637353,035 148,558113,778 89,450 103,926 80,243 83,080 39,611 27,280 9,452 10,075 12,977,61,593,2,539,956,Operating expenses,(174,345)(153,045)(167,215)(148,303)(56,105)(45,4
33、55)(31,311)(43,469)(28,943)(27,348)(18,744)(7,584)(3,375)(3,996)(5,257),(22,555)(937,051),Pre-provision profits,355,038304,831 252,422204,732 92,453 68,323 58,139 60,457 51,300 55,732 20,867 19,697 6,077,6,079,7,720,39,038,1,602,905,Provisions,(36,981)(29,148)(44,312)(18,026)(14,419)(8,054)(5,698)(9
34、,207)(5,815)(10,492)(3,249)(3,101)(1,058),(709),(455),(5,045)(195,769),Pre-tax profit,320,311275,693 208,110187,179 78,034 60,305 52,415 51,249 45,539 45,361 17,713 16,598 5,013,5,373,7,266,34,042,1,410,203,Taxes,(73,834)(63,623)(46,931)(42,774)(17,545)(14,445)(12,687)(12,549)(10,756)(11,046)(4,030)
35、(3,566),(928),(1,104)(1,725),(8,552)(326,097),NPAT-annualized FY12 246,310211,637 161,135137,535 60,387 45,861 39,312 37,972 34,639 34,137 13,539 13,027 4,074,4,269,5,526,25,456,1,074,817,Consensus,227,897186,511 143,786129,143 55,916 41,158 33,453 32,023 32,449 31,176 12,807 10,844 3,910,3,884,5,01
36、2,21,927 966,905,vs.consensus,8.1%13.5%12.1%6.5%,8.0%,11.4%17.5%18.6%,6.8%,9.5%,5.7%,20.1%,4.2%,9.9%,10.3%16.1%,11.2%,Attributable net profit-FY12E,223,263183,650 149,667123,669,57,020 42,468 34,133 35,648 32,177 30,164 12,326 10,772 3,953,5,121 22,166 970,062,9M12 attributable netprofit YoY9M12 att
37、ributable netprofit%of FY12E,12.8%14.2%19.9%7.1%82.7%86.4%80.7%83.4%,17.9%21.2%21.7%33.2%30.5%36.3%32.1%25.7%30.5%25.2%25.7%35.1%79.4%81.0%86.4%79.9%80.7%84.9%82.4%90.7%77.3%82.8%80.9%86.1%,17.0%83.1%,9M12 attributable net,profit%of FY12,81.1%85.1%84.0%79.9%,81.0%83.6%88.1%88.9%80.1%82.1%79.3%90.1%7
38、8.1%82.4%82.7%87.1%,83.4%,consensusSource:Deutsche Bank,Bloomberg Finance LPThird quarter results preview net profit up 15%yoyWe estimate 16 listed Chinese banks will report net profit of Rmb264bn for 3Q 2012,anincrease of 15%yoy(2Q12:16.5%yoy).The slower earnings growth is mainly driven bya NIM con
39、traction of 3bps qoq.We expect net interest income to grow by 15%yoy,driven by loan growth of 13.5%yoy and NIM of 2.57%.We forecast non-interestincome up 13.3%yoy with fee income growth of 4%yoy in 3Q12.We expect the cost-to-income ratio to be 38.3%(3Q 2011:37.8%),with impairment charges equivalent
40、to45bps(2Q 2012:50bps)of average loans.Net interest margin slightly down qoq:We expect NIM to decline by 3bps qoqto 2.57%in 3Q12,dragged down by interest rate cuts and higher fundingcosts.The NIM trends of large banks and small banks are diverging.We expectNIMs for the large banks to be generally st
41、able qoq(down 1bp qoq in averagefor big five banks),whereas the smaller banks will likely see moderate declinesqoq(down 10bps qoq on average).Non-interest income growth trends mixed:Although CBRCs tight regulationson bank fees remain in place,we expect non-interest income growth of listedChinese ban
42、ks to accelerate to 13.3%in 3Q12(6.2%yoy in 2Q12)from a lowbase in 3Q11(but slower than non-interest income growth of 18.6%in 1Q12).Rising cost to income ratio:We estimate operating expenses will rise by 16.1%yoy,with the cost to income ratio edging up 0.5%yoy to 38.3%.Rising overdue loans and NPL b
43、ut at a slower pace:We expect both the NPLbalance and NPL ratio to be marginally up,as we believe asset quality isdeteriorating,a trend that has started to spread from Wenzhou to other cities inZhejiang Province.Even though the banks are not required to report overdueloan in quarterly results,we exp
44、ect overdue loans will continue to rise,but at aslower pace.We forecast the big four bank will report a declining overdue loanbalance on managements recovery efforts,but a slight rise in NPLs.Incontrast,we expect other banks to see a noticeable increase in both overdueand NPL balance.,Deutsche Bank
45、AG/Hong Kong,Page 3,15 October 2012BanksChinese Banks-3Q12 Results previewCredit cost:Even though asset quality might not improve in 3Q12,we expect alower credit cost of 45bps compared to 50bps in 2Q12 as the banks tended touse the last solid result in 2Q12 to aggressively charge credit costs.WithCN
46、CBs management change,we expect the bank to charge more credit costs(45bps in 3Q12 vs 6bps in 2Q12)to catch up with the other banks in terms ofgross loan coverage ratio.CNCBs gross loan coverage ratio fell to 1.67%in2Q12,the lowest among all listed banks.Figure 3:3Q12 earnings preview and summary of
47、 key assumptions,Rmb mn,ICBC,CCB,ABC,BOC,BCom,CMB,CNCB,MSB,SPDB,INDB,PAB,BOBJ,BONJ,BONB,CRCB,CEB,Total,Net interest income,107,696 90,609,84,375,65,509,30,242,22,257,18,793,19,097,17,792,17,839,8,297,6,447,1,974,2,293,3,130,13,499,509,850,Non-interest income,26,514,24,986,19,572,19,603,7,198,5,842,4
48、,016,7,238,2,387,3,250,1,785,706,343,302,100,2,216,126,058,Operating income,134,210 115,595 103,948 85,112,37,440,28,099,22,810,26,334,20,179,21,089,10,082,7,153,2,317,2,594,3,230,15,715,635,907,Operating expenses,(46,228)(40,214)(41,405)(37,710)(15,404)(11,799)(7,625)(12,097)(7,063),(7,592),(4,840)
49、,(2,146),(927),(1,090),(1,357),(6,129)(243,624),Pre-provision profits,87,982,75,381,62,543,47,402,22,036,16,300,15,185,14,237,13,117,13,497,5,243,5,007,1,390,1,505,1,873,9,586,392,283,Provisions,(8,498),(7,123)(10,462)(4,283),(3,678),(1,897),(1,749),(1,499),(1,509),(2,186),(867),(687),(326),(192),(1
50、03),(1,344),(46,404),Pre-tax profit,80,021,68,258,52,080,43,249,18,358,14,404,13,435,12,738,11,607,11,311,4,406,4,320,1,065,1,313,1,770,8,242,346,577,Taxes,(18,405)(15,699)(11,718)(9,947),(4,131),(3,385),(3,224),(3,121),(2,786),(2,760),(1,013),(950),(202),(269),(425),(2,060),(80,096),Attributable ne
