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1、EVOLUTION OF WIRELESS DATA PRICING,January 2001,Materials for Discussion with Service Providers,“WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?”,Launched in September 20015th most popular WAP destination in Canada by December 2001,Yet priced like a 5 minute call,PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN WIRELESS DATA PRICES WITH INCR
2、EASE IN BANDWIDTH,(1)Mid-point of rollout dates across countriesSource:Service provider plan pricing information,November 15 2001,Mobitex81988,2G+14.41999,2G+28.8 2000,2.5G562001,3G3842002,Network Generation Kbps Network Rollout Date(1),2G 9.61994,Current price per MB indexed to first generation net
3、work(Mobitex),91%,Comparable to 10-year drop in wireline data prices(95%decline),Actual Prices on 15 Nov 2001,Methodology,5 major markets surveyedCanada,US,UK,Germany,JapanCurrent average price per MB calculated for each network generationAverage price per MB indexed to first generation network(Mobi
4、tex),WITH CURRENT PRICING,SIGNIFICANT 3G REVENUE SHORTFALL PREDICTED IN U.S.,2000-2010 Cumulative U.S.3G Cash Flow,(1)Current NTT DoCoMo average-use 3G price is$3.21/MBSources:Merrill Lynch,Deutsche Bank,Legg BCG analysis,$64-82B,OpEx40%of revenue(Merrill Lynch),CapEx High estimate:independent netwo
5、rks(Deutsche Bank),License fees(FCC),Trend line voice ARPU(Merrill Lynch)x 3G user base(UMTS Forum),Projected data throughput volume(Merrill Lynch)x current 3G per MB price(1)(DoCoMo),Low estimate:shared networks(Nokia),2x increase in price per MB required to fill gap,Cost,Revenue,$13B,$25B,Voice$14
6、B,Data$30B,$20-38BShortfall,$26B,$44B,OPERATOR IMPERATIVES FOR MITIGATING 3G REVENUE SHORTFALL,Minimize Capex,Share networksReuse legacy infrastructure:e.g.,analog,2G base stationsExercise price pressure on infrastructure suppliersRenegotiate license costs with governmentsSeek regulatory suspensiono
7、f population coverage clauses to permit limited 3G rollout,2,Check flight status,Check bank balance,Playing“Millionaire”game,Email+joke attachment,Email+project update,Newspaper,Look up data,Place grocery order,Urgent VM Notice,Flight status message,Weather update,Personal email,Business email,Synch
8、ronizeCalendar,Email+press clipping,Wireless Email on PC,Wireless Internet Access on PC,WAP,SMS,RIM pager,$.38,$.32,$.18,$.09,$.55,Estimated Value of Application,High,Low,CURRENT PRICING BASED ON APPLICATION TYPE,NOT VALUE TO USER,Note:Average US price per serviceSource:US operator price plans,Novem
9、ber 2001,Value-based pricing,User Perception of Wireless Application Value,Currentprice/use(US$),MobilityEase of use Urgency of dataSynchronization with wireline applications,Value Drivers,Lost Revenue Opportunities,Business user may be willing to pay more to synchronize all calendar devices than to
10、 read a personal email,Teenager may be willing to pay more to play the“Millionaire”game than to check bank balance,CURRENT PRICING BASED ON APPLICATION TYPE,NOT VALUE TO USER,Note:Average US price per serviceSource:US operator price plans,November 2001,Value-based pricing,Business User Perception of
11、 Wireless Application Value,Value of Application,High,Low,Check flight status,Play“Millionaire”game,Pay bills,Email+joke attachment,Email+data update,ReadNewspaper,Look up data,Place grocery order,Urgent VM notice,Flight status message,Receiveweather update,Daily e-newsletter,Email from colleague,Ca
12、lendar Synchronization,Email+press clipping,Application type,Wireless Internet on PC,WAP browser,SMS message,RIM pager,Wireless Email on PC,EXPLORE POTENTIAL TO PRICE BASED ON APPLICATION VALUE TO END-USER TO DRIVE GREATER REVENUE CAPTURE,(1)Assume$.25 based on average US per-minute call prices+1 mi
13、nute upload timeAssume$3.21/MB,based on current FOMA/3G per MB pricing in JapanAssume pricing at 50%discount to substitutes to encourage user migrationSource:BCG analysis,Example:Send 24 digital photos from wireless-enabled camera,$/minute pricing(1),$/MB pricing(2),Value-based pricing,$.25,$3.21,Co
14、st of developing and sending 24 photos by regular mail,Opportunity for value-based pricing(3),$6.00,Value-based pricing,$12.00,SUMMARY,Exponential increases in wireless data bandwidth coupled with continuedper minute pricing has reduced revenue per MB deliveredEssential to mitigate potential 3G reve
15、nue shortfallsAlthough operators are moving to per MB pricing,market is quickly establishing data price point below“fair value”of application/data service deliveredOperators must quickly move to re-set data service pricing model in order to reverse price and revenue declinesOptimized 3G data pricing
16、 combined with cost reductions and new revenue source identification critical to operator success,TWO POTENTIAL OPTIONS FOR BCG MOVING FORWARD WITH MATERIALS,Incorporate with existing Toronto client workandDistribute to TCPA O/M and add to KM as Innovation Note/Deck,PreferredOption,1,Pressure test n
17、umbers and develop thought piece for TCPA,2,BACK-UP,METHODOLOGY:PRICE PER MB ACROSS NETWORK SPEEDS,Kbps,89.614.428.856384,Country Sample,CA,US,UK,DE,JPCA,US,UK,DE,JPCA,US,DEUK,JPCA,US,UK,DEJP,Network Services,RIM pagingText pagingWAPWireless webSMSWAPWireless web,Calculation of$/MB,Data limits($/mon
18、th)/(MB/month)Flat fee plan($/month)/(2.4MB/month)WAP and data services charged per minute as voice($/minute)/MbpsSMS charged per message($/SMS)/(MB/SMS)Services charged by volume$/MB,PlanType,ServiceType,Network Generation,Mobitex 2G2G+2G+2.5G3G,Back-up,PRICING OF WIRELESS DATA ACROSS GENERATIONS,C
19、ountry&Providers,Network Generation,Avg.Price/MB Local$,Avg.Price/MB US$,Mobitex8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex 8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex 8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G28.8kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex 8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex8kbps2G 9.6kpbs2.25G28.8kbps3G384kbpsMobi
20、tex8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.25G28.8kbps2.5G56kbps3G384kbps,Price Change Index,$26.94$26.70$17.77$10.77$22.89$17.72$15.82$13.2157.4933.6926.125.92208.33DM49.96DM56.32DM40.86DM7812.502343.751692.71722.66,$16.92$16.77$11.16$6.77$22.89$17.72$15.82$13.21$82.91$48.58$37.66$8.54$94.08$22.56$25.43$18.45
21、$64.25$19.28$13.92$5.94,Back-up,10099-.88%66-34%-60%100-23%-31%-42%100-41%-55%-90%100-76%-73%-80%100-70%-78%-91%100-42%-46%-38%-68%9-71%,CanadaBell Mobility-FidoRogers AT&T-TelusUS-Verizon-SprintPCS-Cingular-Voicestream-Nextel-Earthlink(RIM Only)-Aether(RIM Only)UK-BT Cellnet-One2One-Vodafone-Orange
22、Germany-T-D1(Deutsche Telekom)-D2 Mannesmann/Vodafone-Viag Interkom-e-plusJapan-NTT DoCoMoGlobal(Average of all country data),WIRELINE DATA PRICES DRAMATICALLY DECREASED,Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation(9.6 Kbps Dial-Up Connection),9Mbps2000DSL,3Mbps1999Cable Modem,Dial-Up Modem,Note
23、:U.S.internet access pricing,2001Source:Veronis Suhler,Communications Industry Report July 2001;Qualcomm,eMarketer,99.34%,82%,66%,9.6Kbps1990,28.8Kbps1995,56Kbps1997,99.68%,Connection SpeedRollout DateAccess Method,Back-up,U.S.,PRICE DROP CONSISTENT FOR NORTH AMERICA.,Note:US$values as of 15 Nov.200
24、1Source:Service provider plan pricing information,Canada,Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation(Mobitex),Network Gen.Kbps Rollout,Mobitex81988,2G9.61994,2G+14.4 1999,3G3842001,2G+28.82000,2.5G562001,Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation(Mobitex),Network Gen.Kbps Rollout,Mobitex8
25、1988,2G9.61994,2G+14.4 1999,3G3842001,2G+28.82000,2.5G562001,Back-up,United Kingdom,Germany,.AND REST OF WORLD,Note:US$values as of 15 Nov.2001Source:Service provider plan pricing information,Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation(Mobitex),Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation(M
26、obitex),Japan,Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation(Mobitex),Europe,Asia,Network Gen.Kbps Rollout,Mobitex81988,2G9.6 1994,2G+14.41999,3G3842001,2G+28.8 2000,2.5G56 2001,Network Gen.Kbps Rollout,Mobitex81988,2G9.6 1994,2G+14.41999,3G3842001,2.5G56 2001,2G+28.8 2000,Network Gen.Kbps Rollout
27、,Mobitex81988,2G9.6 1994,2G+14.41999,3G3842001,2.5G56 2001,2G+28.8 2000,Back-up,WIRELESS DATA APPLICATIONS FALL INTO DISTINCT END-USER VALUE CATEGORIES,Rationale,Inconvenient to accessInconvenient to accessLow-urgency informationEasy,synchronized;low average urgencyEasy,synchronized,urgentEasy;costl
28、y,not urgentEasy,convenient;medium average urgencyEasy,synchronized,urgentConvenient;costlyEasy;slow to use,medium average urgencyEasy,quick,medium-to-high urgencyInconvenient to access,slowConvenient service;inconvenient to accessHigh average urgencyMedium average urgencyHigh average urgency,Wirele
29、ss Application,Personal emailBusiness email Personal emailBusiness emailCalendar synchronizationWeather updateFlight status update Urgent VM noticeMovie listings Bank balance Flight status enquiryRead newspaperPlace grocery orderCheck information sitePersonal email+digital photoBusiness email+analys
30、t report,Average price in US$per use of application,averaged across a 5-country sample.Prices accurate at 15 November 2001Valuations based on BCG user estimations,Delivery Mode,Wireless modemWireless modemRIM pagerRIM pagerRIM pagerSMSSMSSMSWAPWAPWAPWireless modemWireless modemWireless modemWireless
31、 modemWireless modem,Back-Up,PRICE OF EXISTING SUBSTITUTES CAN BE USED TO ESTABLISH NEW APPLICATIONS VALUE-BASED PRICING,Wireless Applications,Existing Consumer Substitutes,Develop and send 24 photos by regular mailPlay group games on computer or television deviceListen to MP3 files on portable MP3
32、player,Traditional,$12 Developing&postage$40-50/mo Assuming 1 new game each month$.01 Per MP3 downloaded into player,Price,Wireline,Send 24 digital photos as email attachmentPlay group games via wireline connectionListen to MP3 files on computer,$.02 2Mb attachment$10/mo sub.fee$.01 per MP3 download
33、ed,Price,(1)All prices in US$;assume 10%wireless price discount over traditional substitute required to migrate users(2)At$.07/MB over 3G network(Qualcomm estimate)Sources:Web sites;BCG surveys,Back-up:Consumer,PersonalContacts,Music,Gaming,3G Substitute,Send 24 digital photos immediately from camer
34、a via mobile phone(2Mb)Play group games via wireless web connectionListen to MP3 files from web host on mobile phone,User Valuation(1),$10-11 Per photo roll$20-25/mo Sub.fee$.01 Per MP3 downloaded,Operator Cost(2),MB x$.07=Cost.$.14(2MB)$7 Assuming 1 hour of play/mo.over 28.8kbps stream(100MB)$.02 P
35、er MP3 downloaded(400KB),OpportunityValue,=High potential value,=Limited potential value,PRICE OF EXISTING SUBSTITUTES CAN BE USED TO ESTABLISH NEW APPLICATION VALUE-BASED PRICING,Traditional,$5 Data entry cost$75 20 minutes,at$.50/minradio network cost+$65 for doctors time$300 Send specialist to re
36、pair site for 2 hours,Price,Wireline,Complete order forms in field and submit via wireline connection at officen/an/a,$5 Data entry costn/an/a,Price,(1)All prices in US$;assume 10%wireless price discount over traditional substitute required to migrate users(2)At$.07/MB over 3G network(Qualcomm estim
37、ate)Sources:Web sites;BCG surveys,Back-up:Enterprise,3G Substitute,Complete and submit orders from field siteAccess medical records and submit diagnostic data directly from intranet emergency record management systemContact specialist by mobile phone aided by video stream,User Valuation(1),$4.50 Per
38、 order$68 Per emergency call$250 Specialist advice by phone,Operator Cost(2),MB X$.07=Cost$.03 20-page order form(500KB)$10 Per 20 minute emergency call 128 kbps stream(153MB)$65 Per repair,with 128 kbps video stream(900MB),OpportunityValue,Complete order forms in field and submit via phone or fax a
39、t officeAccess medical records and submit diagnostic data via radio or telephoneSend repair specialist to customer site,=High potential value,Field Orders,Repair Services,Remote Emergency Services,Wireless Applications,Existing Enterprise Substitutes,青苹果出品 必属精品http:/,囊括2007-2010几十G地产策划资料/企业管理人力资源全套/品牌策划资料/行业分析报告/PPT模板等。,
