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1、HOLIDAY,SATISFACTIONWITH ONLINESHOPPINGREBOUNDS,THE FORESEE E-RETAILSATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION),December 28,2011,Commentary and Analysis By:,Larry Freed,President and CEO,ForeSeeResearch By:Rhonda Berg,2011 ForeSee,2,73,72,90,86,+6,+5,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY E
2、DITION)2011SATISFACTION OVER TIMETOP 40 E-RETAILERS(2011 HOLIDAY SEASON),818079,79,78,79,78,777675,74,75,74,74,74After a slight dip,satisfaction rebounds,71,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,to match its highestpoint ever.,2011 ONLINE HOLIDAY SHOPPING IN THE U.S.WINNERS AND LOSERS,THE HIGHS,A score
3、 of 80 or higher,THE LOWSRelatively low scores signal,88,is generally considered thethreshold for excellence.,possible future loyalty and salesproblems for these companies.,82,83,83,83,83,83,7874,7066,72,64,73,62,AMAZON.,AVON.COM,JCP.COM,QVC.COM,STORE.,VISTAPRINT.,OVERSTOCK.COM,GAP.COM,COM,APPLE.COM
4、,COM,+4+3,BIGGESTINCREASES,E-retailers have to continue toimprove to keep up with cus-tomer expectations.,BIGGESTDECREASESLosing ground overtime could signala worrisome trend.,+2+10-1-2,(+6)to 79,(+5)to 83,(+4)to 80,(+3)to 83,(+3)to 78,(+3)to 78,(-7)to 79,(-5)to 73,(-4)to 72,-3-4-5-6-7,TIGERDIRECT.,
5、JCP.COM,DELL.COM,VISTAPRINT.,HOMEDEPOT.,MACYS.COM,NETFLIX.COM,GAP.COM,OVERSTOCK.,COM,COM,COM,COM,Data taken from 2011 ForeSee E-Retail Satisfaction Index(U.S.Holiday Edition),3,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY,For the seventh year running,ForeSee has
6、 conducted the E-Retail Satisfaction Index(U.S.Holiday Edition),an,analysis of customer satisfaction with the top 40 online retailers(by sales volume,according to Internet Retailer),in the United States during the 2011 holiday shopping season.This revealing data,the result of more than,8,500 custome
7、r surveys collected during prime holiday shopping time between Thanksgiving and Christmas,allows for year-over-year comparisons of both average satisfaction and satisfaction with individual retailers.,Key findings of this years research are further explored in the following report and include:,Satis
8、faction Rebounds:After dropping one point from 2009-2010(from 79 to 78 on the studys,100-point scale),satisfaction with the top 40 U.S.e-retailers rebounded this year(from 78 to 79).,Amazon Annihilates Netflix:Netflix drops six points from its perch as perennial satisfaction leader,(from 85 to 79);m
9、eanwhile Amazon gains two points to achieve a score of 88,the highest score ever,attained by any retailer measured in this Index since 2005.The two companies,who have long been,together atop the Index,are starting to diverge,signaling a strong year to come for Amazon and a,difficult one for Netflix.
10、,Winners and Losers:Top-performing e-retailers include Amazon,Avon,JC Penney,QVC,and Apple.,Bottom performers include Overstock and the Gap.,Price Matters Less:American consumers were less price sensitive during the 2011 holiday shopping,season than they were last year;our 2011 data shows that,at th
11、e aggregate level,price has a smaller,impact on satisfaction than last year.Instead,for many e-retailers,improving merchandise and content,would have a greater return on investment than price.,4,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011,Customer Satisfaction Matters:Compared t
12、o shoppers who report being dissatisfied with a website,highly satisfied shoppers say they are 64%more likely to consider the company next time they are,purchasing a similar product.Satisfied shoppers also report being far more likely to return to the,site,recommend it,and be loyal to the brand.Anot
13、her convincing argument for the importance of,customer satisfaction:analysis of top e-retailers in the United States has shown that,on average,a,one-point change in website satisfaction was found to predict a 14%change in the log of revenues,generated on the web.,INTRODUCTION,E-retail analysts and h
14、oliday post-mortem headlines often focus on whether revenues were up or down,and revenues for the 2011 holiday shopping season have shown a great deal of upward momentum.Early,estimates from comScore indicate that online retail sales during this period were up 15%over 2010.There is,no question that
15、sales tell us a lot about the state of the industry;however,there have typically been severe,limitations to understanding what is fueling the sales increase(and therefore how to maintain and build it).,Online retailers tend to know a lot about online shoppers basic behaviors:what pages they clicked
16、on,where,they came from,how much they spent,and what they abandoned in their cart.These metrics,combined,with evaluations of retail success or failure in terms of revenues,are certainly mission-critical,but they are also,backward-looking metrics and can only tell retailers what has already happened.
17、This is where understanding,customer satisfactions impact on future financial success provides valuable insight.,There is a powerful and quantifiable relationship between a positive customer experience and,increased loyalty,sales,and recommendations.Nearly 20 years of research coming from both,acade
18、mia and the private sector indicates that increasing customer satisfaction is one of the,most powerful things a retailer can do to increase sales across all channels,loyalty,and positive,word-of-mouth recommendations.,5,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011,In fact,the fol
19、lowing report shows that highly satisfied visitors to retail websites in the U.S.say,they are 65%more committed to the brand overall,68%more likely to purchase from the retailer,online,48%more likely to purchase from the retailer offline,and 67%more likely to recommend,the retailer than their dissat
20、isfied counterparts.In this way,retailers can begin to quantify the,value of a satisfied customer to their current and future business,rather than rely solely on,backward-looking metrics.,ForeSee uses the academic methodology of the American Customer Satisfaction Index(ACSI),created at the,Universit
21、y of Michigan,to determine the scores.The ACSI is the national standard for customer satisfaction,backed by nearly 20 years of research and analysis.Research at public and private universities all over the,country,within large and small companies,and throughout the federal government has shown again
22、 and,again that providing a positive customer experience leads to future sales,loyalty,and recommendations.,There are even studies showing that customer satisfaction,as measured by the ACSI,is a key predictor of,stock performance,and a customer-satisfaction based stock portfolio has beat the S&P 500
23、 for ten years in a,row,in both up and down markets.Further explanation of the methodology employed by this study can be,found on page 20.,For this reason we have produced the ForeSee E-Retail Satisfaction Index(U.S.Holiday Edition)for the seventh,year in a row.In this report,we hope to show that un
24、derstanding customer needs and expectations is critical for,retailers to continue to survive and thrive in an increasingly competitive winner-takes-all business environment.,6,78,73,72,71,81,80,80,80,80,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011BY THE NUMBERS:U.S.E-RETAILER SAT
25、ISFACTION SCORES,Average customer satisfaction with the top 40U.S.e-retail websites increased by one point this,FIGURE 1:SATISFACTION OVER TIMETOP 40 E-RETAILERS(2011 HOLIDAY SEASON),year to tie 2009s all time high score of 79 on thestudys 100-point scale.Considering the general,818079,79,78,79,rule
26、 that a score of 80 or higher is considered,excellent for websites that measuresatisfaction using this methodology,the top,77767574,74,75,74,74,40 e-retailers are doing quite well.Averagesatisfaction has increased five points in seven,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,years,and the high average sug
27、gests that thebiggest retailers in America have a huge advantagewhen it comes to the customer experience.,Satisfaction scores for individual e-retailers span a 16-pointrange,from a high of 88(Amazon)to a low of 72(Overstock).Individual site scores are listed in Figure 3 and show:The Leaders:The clea
28、r winner this year is perennialtop-scorer Amazon(88),up two points from lastyears already-remarkable score of 86.Fourteen otherretail websites registered scores at or above 80,whichis generally considered the threshold for excellencewhen using this methodology.However,now that theaverage for the top
29、 40 retailers is 79,a score of 80 is less,The LeadersAmazonQVCAvonAppleVistaPrintJC PenneyNeweggL.L.BeanVictorias SecretBarnes and NobleeBayWilliams-SonomaHewlett PackardDellSportsmansG,SatisfactionScore88838383838382818180,significant than it was five years ago,when the averagefor the top 40 retail
30、ers was 74.Still,if we were to include thousands of e-retailersfrom big to small,scores of 80 and higher would no doubt emerge as being in the top 10-20%.,7,+6,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011,The Laggards:Two sites fell to the bottom of the Indexthis year.Traditional
31、ly,true laggards are defined as siteswith as score of 69 or lower,but for the last few years,The LaggardsGapOverstock,SatisfactionScore7372,none of the top 40 retailers have scored under 70.Its areminder that even the lowest-scoring of the top retailers still perform relatively well.The Gaps e-comme
32、rce site has struggled over the years,registering a 78 when first measured in2005 and dropping as low as 69.Overstock has had similarly variable fortunes,but always scoresmuch lower during the holiday season than it does when we do the study in spring,suggesting thatOverstock may not be meeting the
33、needs of first-time visitors and seasonal shoppers.The Most Improved Since Last Year:Six sites experienced notable increases this year ofthree points or more.,Number ofPoints Increase+5+4+3+3+3,WebsiteTigerD(after a major drop from 80 in 2009 to 73 in 2010,the site rebounded six pointsand 8%to 79)JC
34、 Penney(up five points and 6%to 83)Dell(up four points and 5%to 80)VistaPrint(up three points and 4%to 83)Home Depot(up three points and 4%to 78)Macys(up three points and 4%to 78),8,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011 The Most Improved Over Time:A number of companies are
35、 noted for significant score increasessince they were first measured in the Index.,Number ofPoints Increase+12+10+9+8+7+7+7+7+7+7+6+6+6+6+6,WebsiteJC Penney(up 12 points since they were first measured,to 83)Costco(up 10 points to 79)Home Depot(up nine points to 78)Avon(up eight points to 83)Apple(up
36、 seven points to 83)Best Buy(up seven points to 79)Macys(up seven points to 78)Staples(up seven points to 78)Sears(up seven points to 75)Office Max(up seven points to 75)Amazon(up six points to 88)Dell(up six points to 80)Neiman Marcus(up six points to 78)Target(up six points to 76)Toys R Us(up six
37、points to 75),05,05,06,06,07,07,08,08,09,09,10,0,11,01,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,y2,20,g,ay,g,ay,g,ay,g,ay,g,ay,g,lid,a,g,lid,a,rin,rin,rin,rin,rin,rin,rin,y2,01,1,lid,lid,lid,lid,Sp,Sp,Sp,Sp,Sp,lid,Sp,Ho,Sp,Ho,Ho,Ho,Ho,Ho,Ho,9,-7,-5,-4,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDIT
38、ION)2011,The Decliners:Five sites declinedsignificantly from last year;down three ormore points.This years biggest declinerwas Netflix,which tied with Amazon forthe top spot in last years top 40.This year,Number ofPoints Decrease,WebsiteNetflix(down seven points and 8%to 79)Gap(down five points and
39、6%to 73)O(down four points and 5%to 72),Netflix was down seven points to 79.Netflix had topped or tied for first place on thislist every year since 2005,but it comes as no surprise that the company saw a big declinethis holiday season after months of headlines about the companys customer-loyalty mel
40、tdown.AMAZON SETS NEW RECORD HIGH;NETFLIX LOSES ITS WAYForeSee has been measuring customer satisfaction with Netflix twice a year since 2005(every spring andevery holiday season.As shown in Figure 2,Netflix has shown consistently high scores until this years declineof seven points(8%).Just a year an
41、d a half ago,Netflix scored 87,the highest score received by any retaileruntil Amazon scored 88 on this report.Amazon and Netflix have been separated by only one point or less for the past three years;suddenly withFIGURE 2:AMAZON VS.NETFLIX OVER TIME,90888684,85,88,8280,88,79,Net ixAmazon,78,10,THE
42、FORESEE E-RETAIL SATISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011,Netflixs drop and Amazons increase,the span jumps to nine points,the largest gap between the two,industry titans in the seven-year history of the research.,After sharing the top spot with Netflix last year,Amazon sets a record high for the
43、 Indexs seven-year history,improving two points to 88,an impressive feat for a company already at the top of the heap.Amazon,has been taking the long-view and customers have been responding.Low prices,a robust inventory of,merchandise,free shipping,and added capabilities for digital downloads and st
44、reaming video are drawing,in customers and increasing revenues.Since satisfaction as measured using this methodology is a proven,predictor of financial success,often including stock prices,the companys stratospheric customer satisfaction,scores suggest that its stock may soon respond.,Meanwhile,havi
45、ng shared or owned the top spot on the Index every year since 2005,Netflixs well-publicized,troubles caused its customer satisfaction to crash.Netflix seems to have forgotten how they created a much-,loved brand and why people loved their service so much.In fact,Netflix totally misread its customer
46、base,damaging its brand among both consumers and investors at a time when providers of streaming and rented,video content proliferate the market.Two moves undermined what made Netflix special for consumers:a,60%price hike hit consumers in the wallet,and plans to spin off its mainstay DVD service int
47、o a separate,company would have doubled the amount of work customers had to do to maintain a queue.,This report represents the first quantifiable benchmark of how Netflixs customer satisfaction(and therefore,its customers loyalty and future purchase intent)have been affected by the tumult.As discuss
48、ed on page 17,(in the section called“Factors Affecting Customer Satisfaction”),ForeSee measures four high-level website,elements as part of this study:customer perceptions of content,merchandise,site functionality,and prices.,Netflix took a hit on all four:its content score was down 7%,its functiona
49、lity score was down 3%,its,merchandise score was down 6%,and its price score was down a whopping 12%.Considering that most,people who are visiting Netflix have already made the commitment of membership(and the prices associated,with membership),the drop of 12%is alarming.,11,THE FORESEE E-RETAIL SAT
50、ISFACTION INDEX(U.S.HOLIDAY EDITION)2011,As discussed on page 15(in the section entitled“Why Measure Satisfaction?”)customer satisfaction is a,proven predictor of critical future behaviors that have a direct impact on the bottom line.As a result of Netflixs,8%drop in satisfaction,it also registers a
