《NEWCRESTMININGLTD(NCM.AX)0831.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《NEWCRESTMININGLTD(NCM.AX)0831.ppt（17页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Chris Terry,44,40,36,32,28,24,20,1,2,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,RatingBuyAustralasiaAustralia,CompanyNewcrest Mining Ltd,Date28 August 2012Company Update,M&M-Gold,Price at 28 Aug 2012Price target-12mth,26.7027.85,Reuters,Bloomberg,Exchange Ticker,52 week range(AUD),40.25-20.94,NCM.AX,NCM AU,ASX,N
2、CM,ALL ORDINARIES,4,373,Previewing the Wafi-Golpu PFSBrett McKayResearch Analyst,Newcrest and Harmony to deliver the Wafi-Golpu PFS on 29th Aug 2012The Morobe Mining Joint Venture(MMJV),a 50:50 partnership betweenNewcrest(NCM)and Harmony(HAR)will release the Pre-Feasibility Study(PFS)on the Wafi-Gol
3、pu(WG)project on 29th August.Post the delivery andramp-up of near-term growth projects at Cadia East and Lihir MOPU,WGbecomes the main organic growth asset for NCM.The JV has been workingtoward development of a 20-30Mtpa operation for A$3-5bn,first production inFY17,annual output of 600-800koz Au&30
4、0-500kt Cu after a 5yr ramp-up.Areserve update is also expected,with recent drilling expanding the Golpuorebody and higher commodity price assumptions.Buy on valuation.DBe:$4bn capex,30Mtpa,c.700kozpa Au&c.300ktpa Cu,1st prodn 1H FY18We currently assume$4bn to develop Golpu only,with first productio
5、n in 1HFY18,ramping up over a 5 years.Annual output of c.700koz Au and 300kt Cuover 25 years extracts a total 15.8Moz Au and 6.8Mt Cu.Our NPV(100%)iscurrently$6.2bn with a 21%IRR.Further,we believe the PNG governmentexercises its option to acquire a 30%contributing interest in the project inFY15(for
6、 sunk costs),diluting NCM/HAR to 35%ownership each.Current guidance suggests very low capital intensity compared to global peersOur analysis of capital intensity reveals Wafi-Golpu has the lowest capitalintensity at$7730/t CuEq relative to global peers(average$15,600/t).This,(+61)2 8258-Mat HockingR
7、esearch Associate(+61)2 8258-Research Analyst(+61)2 8258-Price/price relative,assumes the mid-point of the capex and output guidance ranges.However,thecapital intensity increases to$12,500/t if capex is lifted to$5bn and the lowerend of the production ranges are applied.,8/10,2/11 8/11Newcrest Minin
8、g LtdALL ORDINARIES(Rebased),2/12,Metallurgical issues will need considerationHistorical met testing of both Wafi and Golpu deposits indicates potentialissues which require consideration.83%of the Wafi gold resource is highly,Performance(%)AbsoluteALL ORDINARIES,1m15.43.3,3m5.36.1,12m-32.42.4,refrac
9、tory and likely to require oxidation to achieve acceptable Au recoveries.The upper parts of Golpu contain elevated arsenic(enargite),potentiallyimpacting the concentrate quality produced from this section of the orebody.Earnings and PT unchanged at$27.75/sh.Retain BUYThere has been no change to earn
10、ings or price target,derived from 1.2xP/NPV.Risks related to operational underperformance and macro risks(p.12).Forecasts And Ratios,Year End Jun 30Net Profit(AUDm)EPS(AUD)PER(x),2012A1,0841.4223.2,2013E1,4871.9413.8,2014E1,8382.4011.1,2015E1,7952.3411.4,Source:Deutsche Bank estimates,company dataPr
11、e-exceptionals/extraordinariesMultiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years,except P/B which usesthe year end close_Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless othe
12、rwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a co
13、nflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,28,24,N,28 August 2012M&M-GoldNewcrest Mining Ltd,
14、Model updated:13 August 2012,Fiscal year end 30-Jun,2010,2011,2012,2013E,2014E,2015E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,AustralasiaAustraliaM&M-GoldNewcrest Mining Ltd,DB EPS(AUD)Reported EPS(AUD)DPS(AUD)BVPS(AUD)Valuation MetricsPrice/Sales(x),1.581.150.2510.245.8,1.401.200.5018.007.1,1.421.460.
15、1419.555.7,1.941.940.4821.173.9,2.402.400.6523.083.2,2.342.340.8124.933.2,Reuters:NCM.AXBuyPrice(28 Aug 12)Target Price52 Week rangeMarket Cap(m),Bloomberg:NCM AUAUD 26.70AUD 27.85AUD 20.94-40.25AUDm 20,456,P/E(DB)(x)P/E(Reported)(x)P/BV(x)FCF yield(%)Dividend yield(%)EV/SalesEV/EBITDAEV/EBIT,21.128
16、.93.43.20.85.811.314.4,27.532.12.1nm1.37.214.419.0,23.222.61.2nm0.46.012.617.0,13.813.81.3nm1.84.48.09.7,11.111.11.26.52.43.66.67.9,11.411.41.17.23.03.56.47.9,USDm 21,241,Income Statement(AUDm),Company ProfileNewcrest Mining Ltd is an Australia-based gold companyheadquartered in Melbourne.It is enga
17、ged in theexploration,development,mining and sale of gold andgold/copper concentrates in Australia,Indonesia,Fiji,theUnited States,Peru,PNG,West Africa and Chile.Thecompanys current activities include development projectssuch as(Cadia East Open pit and Underground,Ridgewaydeeps and Kencana K2)and op
18、erating mines(Telfer,CadiaHill,Ridgeway,Cadia Valley East,Lihir Island,Gosowong,Hidden Valley,Bonikro,Mt Rawdon and Cracow).Price Performance44403632,SalesEBITDAEBITPre-tax profitNet incomeCash Flow(AUDm)Cash flow from operationsNet CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc
19、/(dec)in borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital,2,8021,4281,1278115571,303-786518-16-112-3-9288-5,4,1022,0451,5441,3009081,729-1,890-1610-231427-367-434-362,4,4162,1131,5711,5771,1171,726-2,556-8300-4051,543-8961183,5,3072,9082,3892,2301,4871,824-1,901-7
20、70-240345-44-1760,6,3863,5122,8952,7301,8382,623-1,2911,3320-376-135-446160,6,3713,4582,8012,6581,7952,613-1,1501,4630-375-53-448310,Balance Sheet(AUDm),20Aug 10Nov 10Feb 11May 11Aug 11 ov 11Feb 12May 12Margin Trends56524844403632,Newcrest Mining LtdALL ORDINARIES(Rebased),Cash and cash equivalentsP
21、roperty,plant&equipmentGoodwillOther assetsTotal assetsDebtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesTotal shareholders equityNet debtKey Company MetricsSales growth(%),6431,76403,9266,3344278981,3245,010-21710.7,1853,310013,78717,2828002,6073,40713,87561546.4,2424,364015,90320,5092,4083,0075,41515,0942,166
22、7.7,665,747016,36222,1752,7533,0075,76016,4152,68720.2,6826,421016,47023,5742,6183,0075,62517,9491,93620.3,1,5146,915016,57825,0072,5663,0075,57319,4351,052-0.2,10,11,12,13E,14E,15E,DB EPS growth(%),53.3,-11.3,1.2,37.0,23.6,-2.3,EBITDA MarginGrowth&Profitability504030,EBIT Margin,2015,Payout ratio(%
23、)EBITDA Margin(%)EBIT Margin(%)ROE(%)Net debt/equity(%),21.751.040.216.8-4.3,41.649.937.69.14.4,9.747.835.67.514.4,24.854.845.09.616.4,27.255.045.310.910.8,34.654.344.09.85.4,20100-10,10,11,12,13E,14E,15E,1050,Net interest cover(x)DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin(%)x Asset turnover(x),53.740.20.5,117.037.
24、60.3,-785.435.60.2,-599.445.00.2,-633.245.30.3,-116.844.00.3,x Financial cost ratio(x),1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9,0.9,0.9,Solvency20151050-5-1010,11,Sales growth(LHS)1213E,14E,ROE(RHS)2000-200-400-600-800-100015E,x Tax and other effects(x)=ROA(post tax)(%)x Financial leverage(x)=ROE(%)annual growth(%)x NTA/sha
25、re(avg)(x)=Reported EPSannual growth(%)Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,0.59.51.312.277.39.41.15117.7,0.66.41.27.8-36.115.41.204.4,0.75.91.37.7-1.519.01.4621.5,0.77.01.49.624.620.21.9433.0,0.78.11.310.913.222.12.4023.6,0.77.41.39.8-10.124.02.34-2.3,Net debt/equity(LHS)Brett McKay+61 2 825
26、8-2607Page 2,Net interest cover(RHS),Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney,-,-,-,800,0.60,683,1,082,-,0,-,EPS,DPS,28 August 2012M&M-GoldNewcrest Mining LtdHJ_13NEWCREST OPERATIONAL SUMMARY DATA,Input assum ptionsAUDUSDGold(US$/oz)Silver(US$/oz)Copper(US$/lb),FY10A0.881,09316.883.04,FY11A0.991,37328.953.94,FY12A1.
27、031,67333.233.71,FY13F0.991,95039.553.57,FY14F0.961,90038.833.49,FY15F0.931,70333.633.32,FY16F0.891,50928.883.15,FY17F0.871,41326.503.06,NP V(HJ13)TelferCadia ValleyGosowongHidden Valley,A$m n9755,6791,829412,A$/sh1.277.412.390.54,(%)5%32%10%2%,Lihir Island,8,448,11.03,48%,GOLD PRODUCT ION(Equity),k
28、oz,Bonikro,322,0.42,2%,TelferCadia ValleyGosowongHidden ValleyLihir IslandBonikro,68949844360,62151546310079150,5404734398960492,5344384039877389,535634398122997102,5186833981221,140127,5197133981221,192170,5207003981221,243170,Wafi GolpuExploration(Namosi/OCallaghans)Evolution(EVN.ASX)Corporate/Oth
29、ernet debtT OT AL,2,1671,500386(1,308)(2,687)17,722,2.831.960.50(1.71)(3.51)23.13,12%8%2%-7%-15%100%,Cracow and Mt.Rawdon,72,161,48,W ACC,8.7%,Sha res,766M,T OTAL,1,761,2,702 2,286 2,336 2,788 2,987 3,112 3,153,%Change,53%,-15%,2%,19%,7%,4%,1%,Gold&AUDUS D,S ILV ER P RODUCTION(Equity),kozTelfer,373,
30、367,200,200,200,200,200,2,2002,000,1.101.00,Cadia Valley,132,266,420,253,298,316,340,352,1,800,Gosowong,698,387,271,417,417,417,417,417,1,600,0.90,Hidden ValleyT OTAL,2861,116,716 858 686 1,125 1,071 1,008 1,4691,743 1,916 1,556 2,040 2,004 1,965 2,438,1,4001,200,0.80,%Change,56%,10%,-19%,31%,-2%,-2
31、%,24%,1,000,0.70,COP P ER P RODUCT ION(Equity),kt,FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13F FY14F FY15F FY16F,TelferCadia ValleyT OTAL%Change,355287,324476-13%,3145761%,2553782%,23759827%,23791024%,24841086%,25851112%,Gold(US$/oz)Copper&S ilver45.00,AUDUSD(RHS),4.50,40.00,T OTAL CAS H COS T S,A$/oz,35.00,4.00,TelferC
32、adia Valley,499120,674299,783422,884386,1,010370,1,044312,1,013282,983308,30.0025.00,3.50,GosowongHidden ValleyLihir IslandBonikroW.AV ERAGE,301417-319,3221,0104191,244450,4051,259560903604,4481,202603748631,4531,152586711629,453970574588596,453906473550538,452731378541494,20.0015.0010.005.00-,FY10A
33、 FY11A FY12A FY13F FY14F FY15F FY16F,3.002.502.00,CAPEX,A$M,Silver(US$/oz),Copper(US$/lb),Telfer,80,84,94,80,80,80,80,40,Revenue split by com m odity,Cadia ValleyGosowongHidden Valley,338190118,1,0782033,1,16910050,1,0403040,5203020,3203020,2653020,2103020,70006000,809,826,865,Lihir IslandBonikroOth
34、er(incl.OCallaghans,Namosi&Golpu)T OTAL,603-1,329,61841351,908,86165542,393,60551001,901,4171241001,291,2162432741,184,197413971,029,17718413907,5000400030002000,6773,218,638 5,537 5,516625 4,6453,527 3,639,5,174,8724,582,8954,044,1,2193,852 3,934,EP S S ENS IT IV IT Y(for 10%move),FY12,FY13,Moz,EV
35、A$/oz EV US$/oz,1000,GoldCopperAUDUSD,0%0%0%,21%3%-21%,ReservesResources,80.0147.5,282.39153.16,292158,0,Total Gold,Total Copper,Total Silver,P roduct ion v/s cash costs,Cash,debt&gearing(%),Free cashflow v/s capex,4,0003,0002,0001,000-,FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13F FY14F FY15F FY16F,800600400200-,3000250
36、0200015001000500,15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%,3,0002,0001,000(1,000)(2,000),Tefler,Cadia Valley,Gosowong,2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E,2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E,Hidden ValleyCash costs(A$/oz),Lihir Island,Bonikoro,Cash,Debt,Net Debt/ND+E,Capex,FCF,Earnings&Dividend300250
37、200150100500,P rice to earnings30.025.020.015.010.05.0,EV/EBIT DA16.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.0,2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016ESource:Company data,DB estimates,DatastreamDeutsche Bank AG/Sydney,2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E,0.0,2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E,Page 3,th,
38、28 August 2012M 300-500kt CuThe JV has provided a broad range of guidance for the key project parameters beingconsidered in the PFS,including capex,copper-gold output and timing of firstproduction.On a 100%basis,the JV expects the PFS to outline:Pre-production capex:A$3-5bnAverage annual output:600-
39、800koz Au and 300-500kt CuCash costs:1st quartileFirst production:FY17,Page 4,Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney,28 August 2012M IRR:21%We also believe the PNG government will exercise its option to acquire a 30%interest inthe project for its pro-rate share of sunk costs.With this milestone to occur upon award
40、of a mining lease(or equivalent),we expect the PNG government to reimburse the JVc.$200m sometime in FY15 and then contribute its share of the ongoing capitaldevelopment costs.This would dilute both NCM and HAR interests to 35%each from2H FY15.Based on the density of drilling within the deeper,highe
41、r grade parts of the Golpusystem,it is possible some of this mineralisation,which has only recently beenintersected,falls outside the mining inventory considered in the PFS mine plan.Withevaluation of this zone to be easier from underground positions,we believe the MMJVwill construct an exploration
42、decline during the full feasibility study.This will not onlyallow for better drilling positions,but allow access to the orebody for detailedgeotechnical and metallurgical assessment.Capital intensity based on current assumptionsWith initial capex and production estimates provided by NCM,we have comp
43、ared thecapital intensity of the Golpu development to other copper-gold projects at the pre-development and pre-production stage(Figure 1 and 2).To do this we have calculatedthe average annual copper equivalent production rate for each project using the DBelong term copper and gold price forecasts o
44、f$2.77/lb and$1025/oz respectively.,Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney,Page 5,Capitalintensity($/tCuEq*),Quellaveco,SierraGorda,Conga,Wafi-Golpu,CobrePanama,MountMilligan,GaloreCreek,Antapaccay,RekoDiq,Constancia,CerroCasale,ElPachon,FriedaRiver,LasBambas,OyuTolgoi,Tampakan,ElGaleno,Caspiche,ElMorro,Pebble,Cap
45、ex(US$bn),6,5,4,3,1,0,28 August 2012M&M-GoldNewcrest Mining LtdFor this exercise we have assumed the mid-point of the NCM/HAR guidance rangesprovided for capex and Cu-Au output,with pre-development capex of$4bn and annualoutput of 517kt CuEq(700kozpa and 400ktpa Cu).The resulting capital intensity f
46、orGolpu is$7730/t CuEq,well below the weighted average of the 20 comparable projectsin this study of$15,600/t.Figure 1 illustrates the relative position of Wafi-Golpu ashaving the lowest capital intensity of the peer group.Lifting the capex to$5bnincreases capital intensity to$9660/t,with a further
47、increase to$12,500/t CuEq if thelower end of the annual production guidance range is used($5bn capex,600koz Au,300kt Cu).Figure 1:Capital intensity of pre-development copper-gold projects35000300002500020000Average$15,600/t150001000050000*based on DBe long term prices:Cu=$2.77/lb and Au$1025/ozSourc
48、e:Deutsche BankFigure 2:Capex and copper equivalent production7,Cerro Casale,Cobre Panama,Tampakan,Oyu Tolgoi,Galore CreekCaspicheConga,Las Bambas,Frieda RiverPebble,El Morro,El Galeno,El Pachon,Wafi-Golpu,Reko DiqSierra GordaQuellaveco2ConstanciaAntapaccayMt Milligan*based on DBe long term prices:C
49、u=$2.77/lb and Au$1025/oz,0.0,100.0,200.0,300.0,400.0,500.0,600.0,Copper Equivalent output(kt)*Source:Deutsche Bank,Company data,Page 6,Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney,28 August 2012M&M-GoldNewcrest Mining LtdBackgroundLocationThe Wafi-Golpu Project is located in the Morobe Province of Papua New Guinea,appr
50、oximately 65km southwest of Lae.The project is owned by the Wafi-Golpuunincorporated joint venture,one of three joint ventures in the Morobe Provincebetween NCM(50%)and HAR(50%),collectively referred to as the Morobe MiningJoint Ventures(MMJV).Figure 3:Location of Wafi-Golpu,also showing other major
