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1、Trends in IT&Communications,Kathie HacklerMVP Enterprise Network ServicesMarch 10,2008,Key Issues,What are the most critical trends and innovations overall?How has the Communications Market changed?What are the trends in each of the communications markets?Where is the money being invested?How does t
2、he future look?,Seven Key Overall Trends Affecting Telecom,Services in the cloud&Web 2.0Greening of businessEconomic uncertaintyMassive video adoptionOblique carrier competitionMobile workforceRising power of consumers/prosumers,“Cloud Computing”the Next Buzzword,Web 2.0(or 3.0)is Part of the“Cloud”
3、,Business,Technology,Community,Long-Tail Economics,Architecture of Participation,Collective intelligence,Social Software,Rich Internet Applications,Mashup syndication,Customer/community participation,Web Platforms,User-created applications,User-created content and metadata,Unprecedented user freedom
4、,Explicit community ratings,Web-services-enabled business models,Micropayments,Revenue sharing,WOA,RSS,Mashups,POX/HTTP,REST,Wikis,Social publishing,Social networking,Blogs,Ajax,Plug-ins,Widgets and gadgets,Traditional vs.Cloud Computing,Buy external service,Delivery Model,Technical Model,Business M
5、odel,Interface Model,Traditional Computing,Cloud Computing,Scalable,elastic,dynamic,multi-tenant,Pay directly based on usage or indirectly(e.g.,subsidized by advertising),Via the Internet using standard Internet IFaPs(IP,HTML,HTTP),Buy assets and build delivery architecture,Single tenant,Pay for fix
6、ed assets and administrative overhead,Internal network or intranet,Communications:Undergoing the biggest changes since the Internet“went public”,The Old Way Scarce Network Capacity Telco-Defined Services Aligned Competition Hardware-Centric Location-Bound Capital and Labor Intensive,The New Way Comm
7、odity Infrastructure User Experience Matters Nonaligned Competition Software-and Web-Centric Open Applications/Services Business-Intelligence-Driven,Broadband Redefined&Commoditized,0,512 Kbps,1 Mbps,5 Mbps,10 Mbps,100 Mbps,Hong Kong,South Korea,Singapore,Taiwan,Australia,China,India,Germany,U.K.,Fr
8、ance,Canada,U.S.A.,Mass-Market Speeds,Highest Speeds Available,2 Mbps,1 Gbps,Japan,Maximum Download Speeds,Consumer Choice,Consumer Control,2.IPTV Subscription Service,Distribute,Widescreen,Mobile,1.Over the Top,Apple TV distributes TV over IP in the home.,Record and Store,Slingbox distributes a loc
9、al TV devices content over the Internet.,Computer,Who Wins?3%:IPTV subscribersThe Rest:Over the top,Purchase,View,Broadband,Video Is Exploding and Its Only Just Started,The number of users of video sites nearly doubled from the end of 2006 to the end of 2007.(Source:Pew Internet and American Life Pr
10、oject,2008),Strategic Planning Assumption:Video usage for enterprise training and communication will reach an inflection point in 2009,with a 20%+increase in the number of users.Strategic Planning Assumption:Video uptake will surge in targeted vertical applications(field force automation,law enforce
11、ment,surveillance and retail)during 2008 to 2010.,Photo courtesy of Polycom,Standard videoconferencing is in stasis,but streaming,on-demand and HD is hot.,Flavors of Enterprise Video,Video Streaming,Videoconferencing,Webcasting,Web Conferencing,Live and on-demand streamingRich media deliveryUsed for
12、 events such as internal meetings,Room-based videoconferencingTelepresenceMobile video,To reach a large audienceOne-way communication in TV broadcast styleMarket penetration of 5%,Services used for collaboration Typically a small-to-medium-sized groupUsually real-time75%provided by service providers
13、(hosted),Blurring the Lines Between Networks and Software:Unified Communications&Collaboration,Collaboration,Communications,Networking,Voice,Blogs,Social Software,Wikis,Telephony,Team Workspaces,Call Centers,Fixed Mobile Convergence,Infrastructure,Trends:Mobile Devices,New Entrants at the Ends of th
14、e Value Chain,and Consolidation in the MiddleDevice vendors build out ecosystems Removing complexity for the user.Mobile Devices as“Lifestyle Statements”Field-refreshable Platforms.,Trends:Enterprise Communications Applications,Hybrid sourcing strategies combine carrier-and user-provided modelsUsers
15、 Get Serious About Unified Communications Software Componentization will Radically Change the Communications Applications Market Companies Adopting Cornerstone Vendors for Contact Centers,Trends:Enterprise Infrastructure&Services,Networks Get SmarterTop areas for investment will be mobility,unified
16、communications,application fluency and security.Video is resurrected and not necessarily controlled by CIOsCisco remains dominantCollaboration software displaces hardware in importance,Trends:Consumer Communications,Users Redefine CommunicationsConsumer and Internet Companies drive innovationsVideo
17、strategy top focus for carriersInvisible Mobility,Trends:Carrier Strategies,Oblique CompetitionAdoption of Internet-like Architectures internallyContext and ContentDeep Financial RestructuringNew Business Structures,Trends:Carrier Infrastructure,Connectivity and Service SeparationSpeculative Investm
18、ent declinesOperational OutsourcingReduction of suppliersSoftwarization and commoditization,Venture Investment Trends 2007,Nationwide,$29.4B into 3,813 dealsFour consecutive quarters exceeded$7B1/3 in Silicon Valley and the broader Bay AreaLife sciences strongSoftware captured$5.3B in 905 dealsTelec
19、om companies droppedSemi-conductors,electronics and healthcare slipped,Source:SJ Mercury News:http:/,Gains in VC funding,Internet-specific companies($4.6B/748)Media and entertainment($1.9B/340)Recent announcements last week:AT&T,William Morris,Accel Partners and Venrock look for“new digital media”co
20、mpanies$100M iPhone Fund from Kleiner Perkins,The Carriers Dilemma,Weak voice revenues Massive operational costs Decline in profitability Limited consolidation benefits,35%,Margins converging,Mobile is flattening Difficulty monetizing new services Control over devices and applications is waning New
21、entrants like Google,Apple and Nokia,Whats the Most-Likely Scenario for the Future?,Revenues shrink Investors lose patience Consolidation Partnering Outsourcing Focus on operational efficiency,Build out fiber,4G,core and service organization.,2006,2010,2014,2018,Experimentation Phase,Rationalization
22、 Phase,Investment Phase,Caution:Expect carriers to jump in and out of markets.,Summary Points:,The“Cloud”is ComingPersonalization and Control CountCommunications is even more critical to Applications and DistributionNew Players will continue to Offer Oblique Competitive ChallengesStill Growth Opportunities in IT and CommsWinners are not Necessarily the Biggest Companies,
