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1、1,美国汽车物流,2,Schenker AG&BAX Global,提纲,1.美国汽车市场2.美国汽车的流通模式3.美国整车物流行业的运作模式,3,来源：Standard&Poor and J.D.Power and Associates,1.美国汽车市场,1 据预测，2008年美国的汽车整车销售将低于1500万辆，比2007年销售下降100多万辆2 至1998年以来，美国的轻型轿车销售量从未低于1600万辆,4,来源：美国和亚洲汽车制造实践对比,2.汽车流通模式：美国 VS 亚洲,1 美国中间商少，利润高：生产商distribution center（配送中心）经销商2 亚洲中间商多，利润低
2、：生产商一级中间商二级中间商最终经销商,5,Schenker AG&BAX Global,CustomerUnderstandingMarketing,ProductInnovationDesign,InboundLogistics,Supply of Parts,Supply of Components,AftermarketServices,Car Sales,Delivery tomarket,Final CarAssembly,Tier 3 Supplier,Importer/Dealer,Supply of Modules/Systems,Tier 2 Supplier,一级 供应商
3、,制造商,Tier 0 Supplier,Finished GoodsDistribution,Production Supply Logistics,Global SourcingLogistics,After Sales Logistics,Supply Chain Management Solutions/Value Added Services,Mfc.,美国汽车物流,LSP,6,Schenker AG&BAX Global,3 美国整车物流的运作模式（以Ford 和Honda为例）,OEM的采购流程3PL for Ford Penske Worldwide Logistics Fed
4、Ex Autogistics（Ford和UPS的合资企业）IT：Unixbased Logistics system3PL for Honda CSX transportation and BNSF（railway）OEM的决策因素缩短运输时间 使用（OTD）,7,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,LP Win/Loss Analysis Based On Customer Decision Drivers,20%,20%of forwarding RFQs have increased their focu
5、s on process optimizationForwarding is still predominately price driven,8,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,73%of decisions are based on process optimization initiatives proposed in the initial biddingFixed“Wall/people/process,IT”are open for optimization at bidding phase,7
6、3%,9,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,LP Win/Loss Analysis Based On Customer Decision Drivers,No change in decision priority.Implementation timing guarantees and start-up cost models alternatives linked to top three,10,Schenker AG&BAX Global,DB Group*,DB AG-management hold
7、ing companyVertically integrated group structureRating:Aa1/AA,Revenues(bn)(Addition BAX),Employees,No.1 in European rail passenger transportNo.1 in European public urban transportNo.1 in German bus transport,Passenger Transport,Revenues(bn),Employees,11.3,53,800,Largest rail track infrastructure in
8、EuropeNo.1 car sharing company in GermanyNo.1 bicycle hire company in Europe,Track infrastructure and Service,Revenues(bn),Employees,1.2,84,900,No.1 in European rail freight transportNo.1 in European land transportNo.2 in air freightNo.3 in ocean freightNo.3 in North American integr.heavyweight frei
9、ghtNo.6 in contract logistics,Transport and Logistics,Revenues(bn)(Addition BAX),Employees,12.4(14.8),75,000,25.1*(27.5),213,700,*in 2005*Incl.0.3 others,11,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challengesb,NAFTA Common TrendsI.Bundling of logistic services(demand side)A.OEMs and increasi
10、ngly tier-1 want:One contract(multiple services)One overheadOne pricing moduleOne system(IT)Costs synergies through consolidation of services,12,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,Logistic service providers are largely fragmented in service offeringOMS,VM&OIbut with a growin
11、g tendency.Outbound consolidation Forwardingto bundle services.CustomsInbound warehousingQuality checksLight&heavy assemblyJIS/JITWaste ManagementComplete SCM transparency ITPartial In/boundProcess/Lean engineeringSpare parts logistics Returns management&repair,Procurement,Production,Distribution,13
12、,Schenker AG&BAX Global,CustomerUnderstandingMarketing,ProductInnovationDesign,InboundLogistics,Supply of Parts,Supply of Components,AftermarketServices,Car Sales,Delivery tomarket,Final CarAssembly,Tier 3 Supplier,Importer/Dealer,Supply of Modules/Systems,Tier 2 Supplier,Tier 1 Supplier,Manufacture
13、r,Tier 0 Supplier,Finished GoodsDistribution,Production Supply Logistics,Global SourcingLogistics,After Sales Logistics,Supply Chain Management Solutions/Value Added Services,Mfc.,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,Services are largely fragmented based on core competence of LSP,14,Schenker AG&BAX
14、Global,Price/Rates,Decision,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,Key Customer Decision Drivers for choosing LPs.,Service Quality,References,ProcessInnovation,RiskAversion,FinancialStability,15,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,Modern competition amongst Lead Service Provide
15、rs(LSP),LSP 1,LSP 2,Developing a USP:best network,best IT,newest assets,best locations,16,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,LSP 1,LSP 2,LSP 1,.time to re-think about competition.redirect that energy to the benefit of the customer,17,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive L
16、ogistic Challenges,1.Cooperation amongst logistic providers OEMs/tier-1 are starting to“encourage”partnership to achieve synergies Based on experience OEM/suppliers know which LP is good with what service;i.e.whom they feel comfortable working for specific services OEMs/suplliers have experienced th
17、at there is not real“jack of all traits”LP,that is good at every service,everywhere Work together or dont work for us OEMs/tier-1 are starting to encourage partnership as opposed to LPs choosing their partner This incentive by OEM/tier-1 started in NAFTA,partially based on EUs success using that str
18、ategy,18,Schenker AG&BAX Global,Market Research(Mercer&Frauenhofer),Nr.of OEM,Nr.of suppliers,50%reduction of suppliers Emergence of mega suppliers Increase in added value to suppliers Increased expectation of suppliers qualityadditional/new engineering requirements addtional resources increased par
19、tnership“approaches national to international responsibilities,Number of OEMS,Number of suppliers,LPs too are following the same path,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,19,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,2.Light&heavy assembly as an integral part of SCMA.Demand for valu
20、e-add services are developing to include assembly functionsB.Why?Shortage of production space at OEM/tier-1Cheaper on account of wage structureLess FTE on OEM/tier-1 payrollC.Services are predominately rendered outside OEM/tier-1 facilityD.Demand is growing in particular where warehouse outsourcing
21、opportunities have already existE.In the majority of cases inventory is owned by LPF.Modules(IPs,engine dressing,axles,etc.)G.Emergence of production and engineering oriented LP,20,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,3.VM&OI(Vendor Managed&Owned Inventory)A.Increase in demand
22、 for VM&OI for intercontinental supply chains-China to US-inbound B.Supply chains with high value-add components(i.e.forwarding with:warehousing,quality control,light assembly)C.Supply chains with high commodity value D.International banks are increasingly addressing this demand by offering new solu
23、tions to LPs,VMI:a process in which a supplier generates orders for its distributor based on demand information sent by the distributor,The coordination of information,material and finances ranging from procurement,production and distribution including waste management,21,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFT
24、A Automotive Logistic Challenges,4.Establishing Data Standards(SCM Visibility)Facts*:“15%of all US bound ocean freight containers with automotive parts are delayed because of data deficiencies”(Industry Action Group)“46%of OEMs move more cargo on an expedite basis than 2 years ago”“37%of OEM and 40%
25、of suppliers maintain costly buffers that exceed 20 days”“79%of all information is re-keyed multiple times”“If supply chain visibility has become the Holy Grail for just about every manufacturer,why is financial data relating to cost of the supply chain barely on the radar of many companies”Marcia M
26、acleod Automotive Logistics,July/August 2007*(AMR,Journal of Commerce,May 28,2007),22,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,MOSS Material Off-Shore SourcingObjective:develop industry standards for data communication that speeds up the flow and accuracy of goods(AIAG with GM,DCX
27、,Honda and Ford)*With new global industry standards for data communication in the process of being developed,should logistics provider continue to invest heavily in in-house SCM visibility tools or promote a future standard?*(AMR,Journal of Commerce,May 28,2007),23,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Autom
28、otive Logistic Challenges,5.NAFTAs rush to LCCS(Low Cost Country Suppliers)A.Generic reasons for going to LCCSCosts.Forecasted volumes:i.e.China plans to produce 10-15 million cars by 2020B.Theory vs.RealityTheory:LCCS allow you to reduce costs,increase profit marginReality:Different culture(politic
29、s,socio-economic,infrastructure and mind set often off-set these profits C.Why?Slow know-how transfer to LCCDifferent quality standards Lack of management&infrastructure from OEM/tier-1 in LCCLack of economic and cultural know howResult:Unbudgeted additional cost and lost of timeQuestion for LPs:How
30、 long will the economic boom last?What are the success chances for late market entry of LPs?,24,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,D.What does that mean for NAFTA LPs dealing with LCC?Higher degree of flexibility from LPs LPs require a solidly established infrastructure in L
31、CC(legal,HR,quality,operation,partnerships,finance,IT,etc.)Successful SCM requires true partnership approach between client and LPs to tackle the continuously changing demands and opportunities for both client and LPsTrend:Several OEMs and tier-1 are returning“home”and re-discovering Mexico as a via
32、ble alternative option as an LCC,Labor in MexicoSalary in production area:10-30 US$/day Average:15US$Hours worked/week:48 hoursAverage work days:6 days/week,25,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,Summary:1.LCC have a massive logistic opportunities but are not the often antici
33、pated“overnight success”2.Understanding&respecting the LCC culture as well as the willingness in a long term investment is a precondition for LPs.3.For NAFTA OEMs and tier-1 a renewed focus toward Mexico has emerged as a viable alternative(low labor costs,lower transportation costs as compared to,fo
34、r instance China,faster access and intervention in processes is possible).Mexico is being re-discovered.,As one of the three countries in NAFTA,Mexico is part of thelargest automotive worldmaket.,26,Schenker AG&BAX Global,6.Increase Built to OrderA.Increase in customers willingness to wait for the c
35、ar with the right specs(Europe is showing opposite trend 3-6 months waiting is too long)B.Increase in inbound supply chain complexity(JIS/JIT)C.This trend is creating opportunities for LSP that have experience in inbound build-to-order sequencing and assembly,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,Mov
36、e from BTS to BTO is still in the emerging phase,27,Schenker AG&BAX Global,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,7.Railway facts.A.The growing concentration of OEMs in S.USA and Mexico,is resulting in a growing demand for more efficient rail infrastructure and servicesInconsistent transit times,rail
37、capacity shortages and likely price increases are key issues to be resolved.The difficulties in resolving these issues stem from the risk of high infrastructure investments that are needed versus the demand uncertainty(will production volumes degrees in NAFTA and move to Asia?)“Short Sea”alternative
38、 is increasingly becoming more popular.The developing rail infrastructure is forcing a healthy competition for transport alternatives:rail,short sea or truck,Opportunity:The link between railways providers and LP can mature further(i.e.trucking,payment auditors,rail providers,IT,short sea),28,Schenk
39、er AG&BAX Global,“Is there still any money to be saved from already lean supply chains within North America?”1.Further develop logistic partnership2.Further develop light/heavy assembly opportunities3.VM&O inventory4.Promote projects for establishing data standards5.Explore further opportunities wit
40、h Mexico 6.Build-to-Order7.Development of Rail,NAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges,29,Schenker AG&BAX Global,Logistic Positioning,Market Trends Worldwide for LSP,30,Schenker AG&BAX Global,Conclusion,As a global automotive service provider,Schenker embraces these newchallenges and trends globally an
41、d view these,as opportunities to further streamline processes and reduce costs for our customers.Some of the mentioned trends are largely still in their infancy but clearly open awin/win window of opportunity for future process/cost optimization.Proactively anticipating market trends,seeking new partnerships with LPs or otherrelated service providers,as well as honing in on future market demand will distinguish the logistic providers of the future.,31,Schenker AG&BAX Global,Thanks you!Frederik Beelaerts van BloklandSchenker AGVice PresidentAutomotive Vertical,
