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1、(Thailand),(Indonesia),(Indonesia),18 December 2012Asia Pacific/China&Hong KongEquity ResearchMetals&MiningChina Basic Material Monthly,Research AnalystsTrina Chen852 2101 7031trina.chencredit-Frankie Zhu852 2101 7426frankie.zhucredit-Owen Liang,MONTHLYDecember 2012:A two-tale storyFigure 1:Our chan
2、nel checks on the downstream MoM order book trend100%,852 2101 6093owen.liangcredit-,80%,67%,Significant ContributorLan Ke,9%,22%,17%,11%,10%,17%,31%,17%,30%,Asia Metals&Mining Research AnalystsTrina Chen(Head of Metals and Mining,China),55%,0%,0%,33%,8%,22%,60%,50%,38%,17%,0%,0%,Minseok Sinn,(Korea
3、),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Neelkanth Mishra,2010,2011,2012 Improving MoM,2012 Declining MoM,(India)Source:Company data,Credit Suisse estimates,Ishan Mahajan(India)Paworamon(Poom)Suvarnatemee,CFA(Thailand)Siripom SothikulElla NusantoroAmi Tantri,A two-tale story.Our recent chan
4、nel checks on monthly order books suggeststabilised demand,with continued seasonal pick-ups in consumer-relatedsectors such as auto and home appliancesin line with 2009-2010,but betterthan 2011.However,there is no sign of improvement in manufacturing,asreflected in persistent weakening or stagnant o
5、rder books through 4Q12 formachine tools,Cu/Al fabricators,and RE end-demand.Construction demand,after a positive run in October,seemed to be fading off earlier thanexpected,based on weakening rebar price,rising cement inventory,andpull-back in utilisation hours of excavators again.,Channel checks o
6、n demandstabilised end demand.Feedback fromproducers as of mid-December suggests:(1)The forward order book trendof end-users improved slightly MoM,with the percentage of respondentsexpecting an improvement edging up to 67%in December versus 30%inNovember.(2)The forward order-books for materials rema
7、ined soft.Producers expecting an MoM improvement were 0%for coal(versus 0%inNovember),0%for steel(versus 17%),38%for cement(versus 43%)and20%for base metal fabricators and traders(versus 0%).Top picks.Despite stabilised demand,excess supply should stay with us in2013E.It will not be a market where e
8、very producer makes money,i.e.,atime when quality outperforms beta,a theme that may finally,actually work.Our preferred names in 2013E are Shenhua,Chinacoal,Jiangxi Cu andAnhui Conch.Our least preferred stocks are Yanzhou,Chalco and CRCement.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND TH
9、E STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS.FOROTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,visit www.credit-or call+1(877)291-2683 USDisclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could af
10、fect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.,CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH&ANALYTICS,BEYOND INFORMATIONTMClient-Driven Solutions,Insights,and Access,2,18 December 2012NJA basic materials stocks(Credit Suisse
11、 coverage)Figure 2:Valuation and share price performance summary,Rat-Target,Mkt cap,EPS(LC),P/E(x),P/B(x),EV/EBITDA(x)ABS.perf.(%)Rel.perf.(%),Company,Ticker,ing,price price Ccy(US$mn),11A 12E 13E 11A 12E 13E 11A 12E 13E 11A 12E 13E 1M 3M YTD 1M 3M YTD,Steel,Maanshan,0323.HK,U,1.3,2.4 HK$,2,375,0.01
12、,-0.44,-0.02,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,0.5,0.6,0.6,6.1,16,5.8,16,27,(5),7,12(19),0.01,-0.37,0.00,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,0.5,0.6,0.6 6.1,7.0 3.2,Angang,0347.HK,U,3.2,5.6 HK$,4,505,-0.30,-0.50,0.09,n.a.,n.a.,52,0.6,0.7,0.7,11,n.a.,9,22,28,2,13,13(12),-0.30,-0.42,0.04,n.a.,n.a.,115,0.6,0.7,0.7,11,6.9 3.5,Baosteel,600019.
13、SS,N,5.4,4.9 RMB,13,620,0.42,0.71,0.31,12,7,16,0.8,0.7,0.7 6.3,3.9 5.1,5,5,0,(0),4,2,0.42,0.64,0.59,12,8,9,0.8,0.8,0.7 6.3,4.5 4.3,Hyundai Steel,004020.KS,O,100K,86K,W,6,828,9K,9K,9K,10,10,10,0.8,0.7,0.7 8.2,10.3 9.7,14,(6)(10),9,(5)(19),9K,8K,9K,10,11,9,0.8,0.8,0.7 8.2,4.3 3.8,POSCO,005490.KS,O,370
14、K,353K,W,28,710,48K,36K,40K,7,10,9,0.7,0.6,0.6 7.0,8.7 7.9,8,(8),(8),2,(7)(17),48K,31K,39K,7,11,9,0.7,0.7,0.7 7.0,4.7 4.1,JSW Steel Ltd,JSTL.BO,U,400,767,Rs,3,120,79.6,24.1,48.3,10,32,16,1.0,1.0,0.9 6.8,5.7 7.1,(0),5,47,(4),(3),18,79.6,76.3,91.8,10,10,8,1.0,0.9,0.8 6.8,5.5 5.1,Steel Authority,SAIL.B
15、O,U,50.0,85.7,Rs,6,450,11.9,8.58,6.69,7,10,13,0.9,0.9,0.8 5.6,8.6 10.2,4,(2),2,(0),(9)(27),11.9,9.20,8.69,7,9.3,9.9,0.9,0.8,0.7 5.6,7.7 6.7,Tata Steel Ltd,TISC.BO,U,300,399,Rs,7,064,97.6,55.4,29.6,4,7,14,1.0,0.9,0.9 6.0,7.5 8.0,3,(2),18,(1),(9)(11),97.6,27.8,47.3,4,14,8,1.0,0.9,0.8 6.0,6.9 5.9,China
16、 Steel,2002.TW,U,22.1,26.5,NT$,13,945,1.30,0.39,0.74,21,67,36,1.5,1.6,1.5 16.2,26.2 22.8,6,0,(7),(2),1(15),1.30,0.44,0.85,21,60,31,1.5,1.4,1.4 16.2,22.2 17.5,Cement,Conch-H,0914.HK,N,24.3,29.4 HK$,20,104,2.19,1.29 1.60,11,18,15,2.8,2.5,2.2,6.2,11.5,9.3,18,24,27,8,8,12,2.19,1.24 1.61,11,19,15,2.8,2.5
17、,2.2,6.2,11.6,9.1,CNBM,3323.HK,U,7.2,11.6 HK$,8,068,1.48,0.97 1.18,6,10,8,1.9,1.7,1.4,6.0,8.5,7.3,20,38,30,10,20,14,1.48,0.99 1.27,6,9,7,1.9,1.6,1.3,6.0,8.5,7.3,CR Cement,1313.HK,U,3.8,5.1 HK$,4,307,0.64,0.31 0.36,8,16,14,1.7,1.6,1.4,7.5,9.9,8.7,9,18(12),4,17,(9),0.64,0.33 0.45,8,16,11,1.7,1.6,1.4,7
18、.5,10.7,8.4,China Shanshui,0691.HK,N,5.5,5.7 HK$,2,064,0.79,0.58 0.49,6,8,9,1.7,1.5,1.3,4.5,5.3,5.5,9,22,9,1,6,(4),0.79,0.53 0.64,6,9,7,1.7,1.5,1.3,4.5,5.7,4.9,TCC International,1136.HK,U,1.5,2.2 HK$,953,0.49,0.16 0.29,5,14,8,0.5,0.5,0.5,5.0,7.5,5.8,5,15(15),0,14(13),0.49,0.23 0.34,5,10,7,0.5,0.5,0.
19、5,5.0,9.3,7.2,CNM,1893.HK,U,1.8,2.6 HK$,1,180,0.41,0.17 0.18,5,12,12,0.7,0.6,0.6,3.6,4.6,4.3,8,22,(8),(1),6(19),0.41,0.19 0.24,5,11,9,0.7,0.6,0.6,3.6,4.9,4.4,BBMG,2009.HK,N,7.1,7.1 HK$,3,923,0.81,0.61 0.55,7,9,11,1.2,1.1,1.0,6.5,8.6,9.3,12,24,37,7,23,40,0.81,0.71 0.80,7,8,7,1.2,1.1,0.9,6.5,4.6,4.0,W
20、CC,2233.HK,O,1.75,1.54 HK$,904,0.16,0.10 0.17,8,13,7,1.3,1.1,1.0,6.7,7.6,5.0,18,13,18,13,11,20,0.16,0.10 0.16,8,12,8,1.3,1.2,1.0,6.7,7.7,5.4,Asia Cement,1102.TW,N,36.3,37.4,NT$,4,037,3.19,2.20 2.48,12,17,15,1.8,1.8,1.7,n.a.,n.a.,n.a.,6,10,(4),1,9,(2),3.19,2.11 2.41,12,18,16,1.8,1.4,1.4,n.a.,46.7,39.
21、6,TCC,1101.TW,O,43.3,38.9,NT$,4,942,2.33,2.34 2.72,17,17,14,2.0,1.9,1.8,73.1,40.7,36.8,6,6,12,(1),7,3,2.33,2.27 2.51,17,17,16,2.0,1.5,1.4,73.1,29.6,26.6,Holcim Indo,SMCB.JK,N,2.8K,3.5K,Rp,2,784,139,158,186,25,22,19,3.5,3.2,2.9,12.0,11.1,9.8,5,3,31,2,(2),14,139,160,186,25,22,19,3.6,3.1,2.8,11.7,10.7,
22、9.4,Indocement,INTP.JK,N,20.5K 22.6K,Rp,8,635,977,1168 1350,23,19,17,5.3,4.4,3.7,15.1,12.5,10.6,0,14,35,1,13,22,977,1211 1412,23,19,16,5.3,4.5,3.7,15.1,15.7,13.3,Semen Gresik,SMGR.JK,O,13.9K 15.5K,Rp,9,542,662,800,973,23,19,16,6.4,5.3,4.5,16.8,14.3,11.6,1,8,32,2,7,19,662,789,951,23,19,16,6.4,5.2,4.4
23、,16.8,13.2,10.6,Ambuja,ABUJ.BO,N,194,204,Rs,5,716,8.01,9.91 11.94,26,21,17,3.9,3.5,3.1,14.9,10.5,9.5,(2),5,33,(6),(3),4,8.01,10.9 12.9,26,19,16,3.9,3.5,3.1,14.9,10.8,9.0,ACC Limited,ACC.BO,N,1462,1412,Rs,4,839,70.5,82.2 86.4,20,17,16,3.7,3.4,3.0,14.2,9.6,8.5,(1),1,24,(5),(6),(5),70.5,75.2 89.2,20,19
24、,16,3.7,3.4,3.0,14.2,10.2,8.5,India Cements,ICMN.BO,O,117,89,Rs,496,2.14,9.54 9.73,41,9,9,0.7,0.7,0.6,11.8,6.0,4.7,(0),7,34,(5),6,36,2.14,9.0 11.9,41,10,7,0.7,0.7,0.6,11.8,5.3,4.5,Ultratech Cement,ULTC.BO,U,1559,1979,Rs,9,887,51.2,89.3,101,39,22,20,5.1,4.2,3.5,21.5,13.4,11.3,0,14,71,(4),12,73,51.2,1
25、04,120,39,19,17,5.1,3.5,3.0,21.5,11.7,9.8,Note:Credit Suisse estimates are shaded.Prices are as of 17 December 2012.O=OUTPERFORM,N=NEUTRAL,U=UNDERPERFORM.Source:Datastream,company data,Credit Suisse estimatesChina Basic Material Monthly,3,18 December 2012NJA basic materials stocks(Credit Suisse cove
26、rage)(cont.)Figure 3:Valuation and share price performance summary,Rat-,Target,Mkt cap,EPS(LC),P/E(x),P/B(x),EV/EBITDA(x),ABS.perf.(%),Rel.perf.(%),Company,Ticker,ing,price price,Ccy(US$mn),11A,12E,13E 11A 12E 13E 11A 12E 13E 11A 12E 13E 1M 3M YTD,1M 3M YTD,Coal,Yanzhou-H,1171.HK,U,7.0,12.6 HK$,7,99
27、7,1.82,1.08,0.47,6,9,22,1.2,1.1,1.1,4.1,7.4,8.6,8,2(26),(1)(11)(35),1.82,0.93,1.11,6,11,9,1.2,1.0,0.9,4.1,6.6,5.3,Shenhua-H,1088.HK,O,40.0,33.0 HK$,84,568,2.30,2.31,2.35,12,12,11,2.3,2.1,1.8,6.3,6.1,5.3,5,4,(3),(3)(10)(15),2.30,2.49,2.60,12,11,10,2.3,1.8,1.6,6.3,5.6,5.0,China Coal-H,1898.HK,O,8.6,8.
28、3 HK$,14,201,0.74,0.62,0.57,9,11,12,1.1,1.0,1.0,4.7,6.3,7.4,11,13,(1),2,(2)(13),0.74,0.66,0.71,9,10,9,1.1,0.9,0.9,4.7,5.8,5.4,Fushan,0639.HK,N,2.9,2.9 HK$,2,005,0.42,0.27,0.26,7,11,11,0.8,0.8,0.8,2.6,3.8,4.0,3,40,11,(5),29,(6),0.43,0.32,0.29,7,9,10,0.8,0.8,0.8,2.6,3.2,3.2,Hidili,1393.HK,U,1.3,2.0 HK
29、$,525,0.35,0.09,0.11,5,18,15,0.4,0.4,0.4,4.9,10.0,9.3,6,3(15),(1),(8)(32),0.34,0.14,0.16,5,12,10,0.4,0.4,0.4,6.1,10.3,9.3,MMC,0975.HK,N,3.3,3.8 HK$,1,798,0.03,0.01,0.04,15,41,11,2.3,2.2,1.8,12.9,17.6,7.4,(1),7(36),(8),(1)(58),0.03,0.02,0.05,15,22,11,2.3,2.1,1.8,12.9,13.0,8.1,Banpu,BANP.BK,N,405,422,
30、Bt,3,748,73.8,35.0,30.6,5,6,12,1.9,1.5,1.4,14.6,5.4,6.2,11(10)(26),5(16)(59),73.8,43.6,279,5,9,1,1.9,1.2,1.2,14.6,6.1,n.a,ITMG,ITMG.JK,N,41K 41.7K,Rp,4,890,0.48,0.40,0.31,9,11,14,4.5,4.6,4.7,5.7,6.8,8.4,8,6,9,4,4,11,0.48,n.a.,n.a.,9,n.a,n.a,4.5,n.a,n.a,5.7,n.a,n.a,PTBA,PTBA.JK,O,19K 15.7K,Rp,3,755,1
31、339,1350,1544,12,12,10,4.5,3.9,3.2,7.9,7.5,6.4,(6),(3)(12),(5),(4)(25),1339,1298,1528,12,12,10,4.5,3.3,2.8,7.9,7.5,6.4,Adaro,ADRO.JK,N,1.5K,1.6K,Rp,5,278,0.02,0.02,0.02,10,10,10,2.2,1.9,1.7,4.7,5.1,4.9,10,(1)(11),1(14)(22),0.02,0.01,0.02,10,10,12,2.2,2.0,1.8,4.7,5.4,5.6,Straits,SAKR.SI,N,1.5,1.9,S$,
32、1,725,0.17,0.09,0.12,9,17,13,2.7,2.8,2.5,5.8,8.8,7.2,0,(1),1,(6),(4)(19),0.17,0.11,0.14,9,14,11,2.7,2.6,2.4,5.8,8.4,7.5,Coal India,COAL.BO,O,425,352,Rs,40,489,17.2,23.4,27.5,20,15,13,6.7,5.5,4.5,12.6,9.6,6.6,2,(8),18,(2)(15)(11),17.2,29.1,33.6,20,n.a,n.a,6.7,n.a,n.a,12.6,n.a,n.a,Non-ferrous,Chalco-H
33、,2600.HK,U,1.9,3.5 HK$,6,161,0.02,-0.43,-0.38,161,n.a.,n.a.,0.7,0.8 0.9 11.3,n.a.,n.a.,9,7,7,0(8)(7),0.02,-0.17,-0.06,161,n.a,1,0.7,0.9 0.5 11.3,n.a,n.a,JXC-H,0358.HK,N,19.1,20.5 HK$,9,160,1.90,1.51,1.63,9,11,10,1.5,1.4 1.2 6.0,6.8,6.3,8,3,22(0)(8),5,1.90,1.70,1.60,9,10,10,1.5,1.3 1.2 6.8,7.4,6.3,UC
34、 Rusal,0486.HK,N,4.6,4.8 HK$,9,410,0.02,0.00,0.06,35,126,10,0.8,0.9 0.8 5.3,14.7,9.3,8,5(2),3,4,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,35,7,1,0.8,0.7 15.2 5.3,n.a,n.a,Zhaojin,1818.HK,N,14.4,12.2 HK$,4,669,0.57,0.55,0.69,17,18,14,4.3,3.8 3.2 11.0,10.1,8.2(6)(11)(1)(14)(22)(18),0.57,0.63,0.79,17,16,12,4.3,3.7 3.0 11.0,9.7,
35、7.4,CGG,2099.HK,U,21.7,28.0 HK$,1,429,0.20,0.17,0.20,18,22,18,1.1,1.0 0.9 8.8,10.4,8.7(10)(17),54(17)(28),36,0.20,n.a.,n.a.,18,n.a.,n.a.,1.1,n.a.n.a.8.8,n.a.,n.a.,Lingbao,3330.HK,N,3.3,3.7 HK$,315,0.40,0.28,0.46,6,9,6,0.9,0.8 0.7 6.1,6.1,4.9(3)(14),12(11)(25)(5),0.40,0.33,0.40,6,8,6,0.9,0.8 0.7 6.1,
36、5.1,4.1,G-Resource,1051.HK,N,0.40,0.36 HK$,879,0.00,0.00,0.00,n.a.,n.a.,10,1.1,1.0 0.9 n.a.,n.a.,5.2,3(6)(18)(5)(18)(35),0.00,0.00,0.01,n.a.,n.a.,7,1.1,1.0 0.9 n.a.,n.a.,5.1,Hindalco Ind,HALC.BO,O,135,124,Rs,4,334,12.8,17.7,16.8,n.a,7,7,0.9,0.7 0.7 6.7,6.9,8.0,6,1,4,2(6)(25),12.8,16.4,18.6,n.a,6,n.a
37、,0.9,0.6 11.2 6.7,n.a,n.a,Minmetals,1208.HK,N,3.5,3.2 HK$,2,191,0.10,0.05,0.07,4,9,6,1.5,1.3 1.1 2.0,3.4,2.4,8(1)(2),2(9)(25),0.11,0.05,0.08,4,8,5,1.5,1.2 1.0 2.0,3.7,2.8,Zijin,2899.HK,O,3.9,3.1 HK$,8,810,0.26,0.24,0.27,8,10,9,1.9,2.0 1.7 4.8,5.7,5.0,1(2),7(6)(13)(10),0.26,0.25,0.29,8,9,n.a,1.9,1.6
38、21.6 4.8,n.a,5.0,Note:Credit Suisse estimates are shaded.Prices are as of 17 December 2012.O=OUTPERFORM,N=NEUTRAL,U=UNDERPERFORM,R=RESTRICTED.Source:Datastream,company data,Credit Suisse estimatesChina Basic Material Monthly,2,3,5,6,12,13,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,4,18
39、 December 2012Table of contentsNJA basic materials stocks(Credit Suisse coverage)NJA basic materials stocks(Credit Suisse coverage)(cont.)Credit Suisse commodity price forecastsNovember 2012:stable on the back of seasonalityChinese downstream demand snapshotsChinese downstream demand snapshots(cont.
40、)Steel:rebar margin softensAsset-based valuation:SteelValuation of peers:SteelShare performance:SteelCoal:falling IPP inventoryAsset-based valuation:CoalValuation of peers:CoalShare performance:Coal,Cement:stable pricingAsset-based valuation:CementValuation of peers:CementShare performance:CementAlu
41、minium:Government support,little helpAlumina:Uncertainty on Indonesian bauxite policyCopper:Weak restockingRare earths:Oversupply may not change soonOther non-ferrous metalsAsset-based valuation:GoldValuation of peers:Non-ferrous metalsShare performance:Non-ferrous metalsChina Basic Material Monthly
42、,23,5,18 December 2012Credit Suisse commodity price forecastsFigure 4:Credit Suisse commodity price forecasts,2001 2002 2003 2004 2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E,LT,Base/precious metals,Aluminium-LME,US/lb,65,61,65,77,86,112 120 117,76,99,109,92,99 107 109,100,YoY(%),-7%-6
43、%,6%,19%,12%,30%,6%-2%-35%,31%,10%,-15%,7%,8%,2%,Aluminium-SHFE,US/lb,65,64,69,76,80,98,99,96,78,91,101,100,99 107 109,100,YoY(%),-14%-2%,8%,11%,5%,24%,0%-3%-18%,16%,11%,-1%-1%,8%,2%,Copper-LME,US/lb,71,71,81,127,167,306 320 317 235,342,402,361 363 340 318,250,YoY(%),-13%-1%,14%,58%,31%,83%,5%-1%-26
44、%,46%,17%,-10%,1%-6%-7%,Copper-SHFE,US/lb,73,72,85,129,164,301 317 305 236,339,397,363 363 340 318,250,YoY(%),-15%-1%,17%,52%,27%,84%,5%-4%-22%,43%,17%,-9%,0%-6%-7%,Zinc-LME,US/lb,40,35,38,47,63,148 152,85,75,98,101,89,99 114 127,85,YoY(%),-21%-12%,6%,26%,32%,136%,3%-44%-12%,31%,3%,-12%11%15%11%,Nic
45、kel-LME,US/lb,271 307,437,629,671,1085 1711 960 666,989,1031,808 856 907 953,900,YoY(%),-30%13%,42%,44%,7%,62%58%-44%-31%,48%,4%,-22%,6%,6%,5%,GoldYoY(%),US$/oz,271 310-3%15%,36417%,40511%,44510%,604 697 873 97336%12%29%12%,122326%,157229%,1682 1840 1748 15007%9%-5%-14%,1300,Bulk commodities,Oil,US$
46、/bb,26,26,31,39,56,65,63,99,62,79,96,95,106 102,94,84,YoY(%),-14%,0%19%,26%,43%16%-4%58%-37%,28%,21%,-1%,11%-4%,-8%,Iron ore China CIF,US$/t,n.a.n.a.n.a.,n.a.,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.,148,170,129,112,96,91,91,YoY(%),n.a.n.a.n.a.,n.a.,n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.,n.a.,14%,-24%,-13%-15%,-5%,Hard coking coal,US$/t
47、,43,48,46,57,125 114,98 305 125,208,289,210,173 183,190,170,YoY(%),7%13%-3%,24%,118%-9%-14%211%-59%,66%,39%,-27%,-18%,6%,4%,PCI coal,US$/t,n.a.,34,32,41,102,66,68 245,85,149,223,152,126 133,139,130,YoY(%),n.a.n.a.-5%,30%,146%-35%,2%263%-65%,75%,50%,-32%,-17%,5%,4%,Thermal coal(NEWC)US$/t,35,32,30,45
48、,54,53,56 129,70,90,121,98,98 108,118,110,YoY(%),20%-8%-7%,52%,20%-3%,6%132%-46%,29%,34%,-19%,0%10%,9%,Thermal coal(QHD),US$/t,28,29,29,39,48,51,59 101,79,99,114,101,96 100,105,105,YoY(%),15%,6%-1%,35%,22%,6%16%72%-22%,25%,15%,-11%,-5%,5%,4%,Steel,SteelHRC ChinaYoY(%)SteelCRC China,US$/tUS$/t,182 24
49、8 333 453-23%36%34%36%248 317 475 579,446 419 475 626 469 544 624 559-1%-6%13%32%-25%16%15%-10%623 519 564 747 598 708 723 667,534-5%634,511-4%622,5232%644,523644,YoY(%),-24%28%50%22%,8%-17%,9%32%-20%19%,2%-8%,-5%,-2%,4%,Steellong ChinaYoY(%),US$/t,153 211 274 3530%39%30%29%,333 312 393 565 442 506
50、605 511-6%-6%26%44%-22%15%20%-16%,475-7%,453-5%,4602%,460,Source:Bloomberg,Credit Suisse estimatesChina Basic Material Monthly,6,18 December 2012December 2012:A two-tale story,Our recent channel checks on monthly order books suggest stabilised demand,withcontinued seasonal pick-ups in consumer relat
