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1、,2013 年 1 月 23 日中国：A 股策略IPO 深度分析：达摩克利斯之剑还是纸老虎？(摘要)证券研究报告洞察 A 股系列报告之一,2013 年 IPO 规模将扩大，但 IPO/市值比率仍处于 0.7%的低位潜在 IPO 对 A 股市场的影响一直是投资者的关注焦点。我们预测 2013 年的 IPO规模将可达人民币 1,800 亿元，同比增长 80%（计算参见第 4 页），但 IPO/总市值比率仅为 0.7%，依然远低于 1994 年以来 2.1%的均值，也低于过去 5 年 0.9%的均值。因此 IPO 对股市的冲击近年来呈下降趋势。与此同时我们推出洞察 A 股系列报告，聚焦投资者关注的
2、A 股市场热点话题。经济周期推动中国和全球的 IPO 规模/股指/估值我们的分析显示中国的 IPO/市值比率一直呈顺周期特点，自 2005 年以来与 GDP增速、股票回报和估值之间存在明显正相关关系，相关度高达 80%以上。我们对1997-2011 年期间美国、英国、香港、新加坡、韩国、印度和印尼的数据分析也支持这一观点，正相关度为 21%-60%不等。因此在我们看来，投资者对 IPO 规模将抑制指数表现/估值的担忧似乎有些过度。我们认为潜在的 IPO 不会显著改变我们基于经济基本面改善而对 A 股市场所持有的积极看法。新增 IPO 供应可被投资者轻松消化我们的分析显示 2013 年 IPO
3、相对 2012 年的增量供应人民币约 800 亿元，可轻易被机构投资者股票仓位上升 0.8 个百分点以及和个人投资者新开账户增加 60 万户所消化（2008-2012 年年均新开个人投资者账户为 1,300 万户）。此外，过去几年中没有证据表明中小板和创业板 IPO 比率的上升对估值的挤压大于主板。对2005 年以来中国股市各板块的分析所得出的结论也与此类似。*全文翻译随后提供IPO 规模一直为顺周期，因此并非指数回报的拖累因素,孙贤兵+86(10)6627-3187 北京高华证券有限责任公司执业证书编号:S1420510120003刘陈杰+86(10)6627-3324 北京高华证券有限责任
4、公司执业证书编号:S1420511070002,15%12%,CSI 300 return(RHS),IPO ratio(LHS),GDP growth(LHS),250%200%150%,9%,162%,100%,6%,121%,97%,50%,3%,-8%,-66%,-13%,-25%,8%,0%-50%,0%,-100%,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013E,资料来源：万得、高华证券研究、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑
5、到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。北京高华证券有限责任公司,3,4,8,8,11,14,15,16,17,2,2013 年 1 月 23 日Table of contentsSummary:IPOs have been pro-cyclical;concerns overdoneIPOs to pick up in 2013E but IPO ratio still low at 0.7%IPO ratio has been pro-cyclical:positively
6、 correlated with economy,index returns and valuation in ChinaIPO ratio has been pro-cyclical:positively correlated with economy,index returns and valuation in ChinaGlobal experience also proves pro-cyclical bias of IPO ratiosOther issue 1:IPO ratios vs.different boards valuationsOther issue 2:IPO ra
7、tios vs different sectors valuationsOther issue 3:IPO ratios vs IPO returnsOther issue 4:Unlocking the shares overhang concentrates on SME/GEM boardsAppendixDisclosure Appendix,2022,中国,All prices in this report are as of the market close of January 17,2013.Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of
8、 Helen Zhu,Timothy Moe,CFA,and Ben Bei of Goldman Sachsin the preparation of this product.高华证券策略研究,3,2013 年 1 月 23 日,中国,Summary:IPOs have been pro-cyclical;concerns overdoneThe impact of an IPO pipeline overhang over A-share has been investors key focus.In theory,IPOs are a natural part of equity ma
9、rkets and are part of their development,especially at the earlystage.In our opinion,investors should judge IPOs by their quality and pricing,and not fear them.Here,we analyze the correlation between IPO ratios(IPO value as%of last year-ends totalmarket cap)and other key investors focus(macro backdro
10、p,equity index returns,and equityindex valuations),and try to quantify the potential impacts.The bottom line for our analysis is that IPO ratios have been positively correlated withGDP growth,equity index returns and valuations in China and globally.Investorsconcerns seem overdone,in our view.We for
11、ecast 2013E IPOs that we value at Rmb180bn IPO,up 80%yoy,but the IPO ratio at0.7%is still well below the average 2.1%since 1994,and it is below the last five years averageat 0.9%as well.Two key assumptions for our estimates:1)No.of companies to belisted.We forecast 349 companies to be listed in A-sh
12、are,which assumes companies at CSRCIPO Stage 3(pre-disclosure of IPO prospectus,see Exhibit 4)and later to list successfully on A-share.2)Average IPO value size per company.We separate main board,SME board andGEM board for our analysis,and used Rmb0.88bn,Rmb0.39bn and Rmb0.31bn IPO value percompany
13、respectively.The key findings:IPO ratio has been pro-cyclical.Our analysis shows that IPO has beenpositively correlated with GDP growth,index returns and valuations,as shown in Exhibit 9 and 10.We believe those findings are in contrast to some local investors concerns over the IPOoverhangs.We believ
14、e the potential IPOs will not materially change our positive stance on theChina A-share market,supported mainly by fundamentally improving economy(2013 Outlook:Recovering mildly,with hopes pinned on reform dated Nov,29,2012).The key logic:economic backdrop is more critical to equities than IPO ratio
15、s.We havebeen holding the view that the economic backdrop is the most critical factor driving equity markets,as it will have a fundamental impact on earnings and valuations,and we believe some investorspure or significant focus on liquidity itself is not sufficient.Our analysis shows that the potent
16、ialincremental IPOs in 2013E at Rmb80bn(2013E IPOs at Rmb180bn minus 2012 IPOs atRmb100bn,to reflect the incremental impact to equity market vs 2012)can be digested easily bya 0.8ppt increase of the equity position changes of institutional investors and 0.6mn retailaccounts opening.In this analysis,
17、we assume institutional/retail investors accounting for30%/70%of total trading volume respectively per the latest available equity holding structure asof 1H2012.We ignored equity-holder corporates participation in IPO subscriptions during theanalysis.Global experience also proves pro-cyclical bias o
18、f IPO ratios.We also did global analysisto check whether globally IPO ratios will compress equity valuations materially.Our analysisincludes 1997-2011 annual data from the US,UK,HK,SGP,Korea,India,Indonesia and China,and it shows that globally IPO ratios also show clear positive correlation with GDP
19、 growth,indexreturns,and index valuations.There was no evidence showing that IPO ratio increase will impacton index returns or valuations meaningfully.Other issues:IPO/unlocking impacts on different boards/sectors/IPO returns.Ouranalysis shows there was no evidence that higher IPO ratios for SME/GEM
20、 boards havecompressed more the valuations compared with the main board in the past years.Similarconclusions were found for different sector analysis.Our analysis on unlocking shares shows thatunlocking pressure peaked in 2009,the pressure in 2013E looks to be not as significant as beforeand is conc
21、entrated in the SME and GEM boards.高华证券策略研究,4,2013 年 1 月 23 日,中国,IPOs to pick up in 2013E but IPO ratio still low at 0.7%Gauging 2013E A-share potential IPOs at Rmb180bn2013E IPO ratio still well below historical level despite potential 80%yoy increaseWe expect the value of IPOs to be up 80%yoy to R
22、mb180bn in 2013E,but the IPO ratio(IPOvalue as%of last year-ends total market cap)at 0.7%is still well below the average 2.1%since1994,and it is below the last five years average at 0.9%as well.If we assume 2013Es IPO ratioat 2.1%and 0.9%of 2012 total market cap,the A-share market is able to afford
23、Rmb577bn(arecord high)and Rmb246bn IPOs,up 480%and 150%yoy respectively.We note from that a third party,PWC,estimated Rmb150bn IPO in 2013.Here,our IPO ratio using last year-ends total market cap for calculation reflects the potential IPO expectation impact on currentequity markets.In theory,total f
24、loatable market cap may be a better metric to calculate the IPO ratio.In that case,the IPO impact on the equity market could be even less given the significant rise in floatablemarket cap since 2004.The CAGRs for total market cap,annual turnover and floatable marketcap were 29%,27%and 42%respectivel
25、y during 2004-2012.Using annual turnover as a metricfor analysis is similar to total market cap.As shown in Exhibit 3,we expect the 2013 IPOs as%of2012 total floating market cap and 2012 total turnover to be 1.0%and 0.6%respectively,wellbelow historical average level at 7.9%and 1.9%since 1994.Two ke
26、y assumptions for our IPO value estimatesWe use an“estimated no.of companies to be listed multiplied by estimated average IPO valuesize per company”approach to gauge the IPO potential in 2013E.1)No.of companies to be listed.We forecast 349 companies to be listed on A-share,whichassumes companies at
27、CSRC IPO Stage 3(pre-disclosure of IPO prospectus,Exhibit 4)and laterto list successfully on A-share.This number(despite a smaller IPO value for each company)is arecord high,slightly more than the 347 companies listed in 2010,and an average 247 companieslisted pa in the past five years.We believe th
28、e 349 companies to be listed factor in an aggressivepick-up in the pace of approvals(Exhibit 8).2)Average IPO value size per company.We separate main board,SME board and GEMboard for our analysis,and use Rmb0.88bn,Rmb0.39bn and Rmb0.31bn IPO value per companyrespectively.This assumption is the avera
29、ge size between 2012 actual IPO companies and the99 potential IPOs with CSRC approval.We note only IPO size data is available for the potential99 IPOs that have approval.We also estimate Rmb370bn equity placements in 2013EThe potential equity placement estimates in 2013E account for c.1.4%of 2012E y
30、ear-end marketcap,assuming the placement ratio at the average level during the past five years.We believe itlooks reasonable given a relatively stable placement ratio and a potential modest yoy pick-up(+18%)following modest macro recovery.Progress update on CSRC IPOsWe note from that CSRC has just s
31、tarted a financial inspection of all companies on theIPO waitlist,to avoid fake accounting issues.According to,the CSRC may resume IPOsafter May 2013(China A-share IPOs have been suspended by CSRC since October 2012).高华证券策略研究,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2013,2005,2006,2007
32、,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,5,2013 年 1 月 23 日Exhibit 1:We forecast Rmb180bn IPOs in 2013E,0.7%of2012 year-end market cap,well below historical levels,中国Exhibit 2:We forecast Rmb370bn placements in 2013E
33、,1.4%of 2012 year-end market cap,historical averagelevel,(Rmb bn),IPO value,(Rmb bn),Placement,500,IPO ratio(as%of last yearend mkt_cap),7%,500,Placement ratio(as%of last yearend mkt_cap),4.0%,6.4%,6%,3.5%,3.5%,400300,4.7%,5%4%,400300,2.1%,GSe,3.0%2.5%,2.0%,200100,1994-2012 avg.2.1%,last 5 year avg.
34、0.9%1.7%1.4%,GSe,3%2%,200100,1994-2012 avg.1.6%,last 5 year avg.1.4%,1.7%1.4%1.3%,1.5%1.4%1.0%,1.0%,0.9%,1%0.7%,0.4%,0.6%,0.5%,0,0.1%,0.3%,0.4%,0%,0,0.0%,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECSResearch,
35、Exhibit 3:The 2013E IPO impact on total floating market cap seems even less,at only 1.0%,vs historical average at 7.9%,(Rmb bn),IPO valueIPO as%of last year turnover,500,IPO as%of last year floating market_cap,30%,25%40020%30015%,200,GSe,10%Avg.7.9%1005%Avg.1.9%1.0%,高华证券策略研究,0Source:WIND,Gao Hua Sec
36、urities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,0.6%0%,6,2013 年 1 月 23 日,Exhibit 4:The CSRC IPO approval processIPO Stage 1,中国,IPO applicationaccepted byCSRCCSRC IPOformal review-second round,IPO applicationdistribution byCSRCPreliminaryround formalreview Qsclearance,Meetingbetween CSRCand theCom
37、panyIPO Stage 4CSRC IPOformal review-preliminaryround,Meetingbetween CSRCand SponsorIPO Stage 3Pre-disclosureof IPOprospectus,IPO applicationdraft review byCSRCIPO Stage 2Draft review Qsclearance bythe Company,IPO Stage 5,Second roundformal reviewQs clearance,IPO applicationfiling closing,Follow-upb
38、etween fileclosing andfinal approval,IPO approvalready pendingfinal listing,Source:CSRC,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 5:Rmb61bn potential IPO with approval ready pending listing,i.e.at IPO Stage 599 companies IPO waitlist-Approved yet issuance,No oflistcos,%oft
39、otal,IPO shares(bn),IPO value(Rmb bn),%oftotal,Median size(Rmb bn),Main boardSME boardGEM boardTotal,10375299,10%37%53%100%,6.71.31.29.2,34.612.313.860.8,57%20%23%100%,0.950.270.230.26,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 6:There was a total of 988 compani
40、es on the IPO waiting list at different stages,and we estimate all the companies at Stage 3/4/5 will list in 2013Totally 988 companies on the waitlist,No of Cos,Stage 1-Stage 2-IPO Draft reviewapplication Qsaccepted by clearance byCSRC the Co.,Stage 3-Pre-disclosureof IPOprospectus,Stage 4-CSRC IPOf
41、ormal review-preliminaryround,Stage 5-IPO approvalpendingfinal listing,Total,Main boardSME boardGEM boardTotal,326656154,70182233485,2032759,6310226191,10375299,195419374988,高华证券策略研究,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research,349,Assume listing in 2013E,450,7,2013 年 1
42、月 23 日,Exhibit 7:Median size(IPO value per company)has been declining,中国,(Rmbbn/co.)Main BoardSME BoardGEM Board,20051.180.22n.a.,20064.030.26n.a.,200714.180.26n.a.,20089.980.32n.a.,200911.040.670.53,20102.850.780.72,20111.750.690.50,20120.810.510.40,2013median99potentialIPOs)0.950.270.23,2013GSe0.8
43、80.390.31,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECS ResearchExhibit 8:Our forecast of 349 companies(historical high)listing appears to factor in anaggressive pick-up in the pace of approvals,not to mention the timing impact of currentfinancial inspection,No.ofcompanies,IPO CSR
44、C formal review-Passed,IPO CSRC formal review-Failed400350300250200150100500,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013E,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究,8,2013 年 1 月 23 日,中国,IPO ratio has been pro-cyclical:positively correlated with econo
45、my,index returns and valuation in ChinaThe findings:IPO ratio has been pro-cyclicalWhether and how IPO will impact on the A-share equity market has been a hot topic amonginvestors.Our analysis shows that IPO has been positively correlated with GDP growth,indexreturns and valuations,as shown in Exhib
46、it 9 and 10.We believe those findings are in contrast tosome local investors significant concerns over the IPO overhangs.We notice Chinas IPO ratios were at the high end in 2006-2007,when GDP growth was prettyhigh at c.14%,as shown in Exhibit 9,and CSI 300 returns were strong at annually 140%as well
47、.Although the economy cycles are not as volatile as before,the pro-cyclical character of the IPOratio has been obvious at a positive correlation at 81%between IPO ratio and GDP growth and85%between IPO ratios and CSI300 returns,as shown in Exhibit 9.More frequent quarterly data also shows that IPO r
48、atios are positively correlated with GDP growthat 62%since 2Q 2006(consistent quarterly data available),and the IPO rise does not necessarilyhurt valuations,a positive 45%correlation instead(Exhibit 10).Exhibit 9:IPO ratios and stock returns both show strong pro-cyclical character in China,15%,CSI 3
49、00 return(RHS),IPO ratio(LHS),GDP growth(LHS),250%,12%9%6%,121%,162%,97%,CorrelationIPO ratio and GDP growth:81%IPO ratio and CSI 300 return:85%,200%150%100%50%,3%,-8%,-66%,-13%,-25%,8%,0%-50%,0%,-100%,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013E,Source:Wind,Gao Hua Securities Research,Goldman Sach
50、s Global ECS Research高华证券策略研究,2Q2006,3Q2006,4Q2006,1Q2007,2Q2007,3Q2007,4Q2007,1Q2008,2Q2008,3Q2008,4Q2008,1Q2009,2Q2009,3Q2009,4Q2009,1Q2010,2Q2010,3Q2010,4Q2010,1Q2011,2Q2011,3Q2011,4Q2011,1Q2012,2Q2012,3Q2012,4Q2012,50,9,2013 年 1 月 23 日,中国Exhibit 10:More frequent quarterly data also shows that IP
