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1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Europe,PeriodicalGerman&Austrian,Date8 October 2012,EquitiesAndreas Neubauer,DVFA,Daily Newsflow,Head of Research(+49)69 910-,DAX:Company updates published Oct 05-08 2012 6.30am CETMetro Group(MEOG.DE),EUR21.46 Hold Price Target EUR25.00Metro reduces FY Profit guidance
2、that the market didnt believeINDUSTRY:Sector updates published Oct 05-08 2012 6.30am CETChemical Databook Raw material inflation may drive a modest margin squeeze inQ4 12German Banks The imperative 60%cost-income ratio,Related recent researchGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerAustrian Stock IdeasMatt
3、hias PfeifenbergerToPPiX-German StrategyLars SlomkaGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerUpcoming eventsKabel DeutschlandGeneral MeetingDelticom AGNine Months statementKWS SAAT AGAnnual financial statementzooplus AGNine months statement,Date27-Jan-1206-Jan-1206-Dec-1101-Dec-11Date11 October201218 Octobe
4、r201211 October201222 October2012,_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche
5、 Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment de
6、cision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,8 October 2012German&Austrian EquitiesEuropean Equity Research Analysts German&Austrian UniverseHead of German&Austrian Equity Research,Andreas NeubauerStrategists,+49 69 910 31900,Lars SlomkaJan RabeAustrian
7、StocksChristian BaderMatthias PfeifenbergerAutomobileJochen GehrkeGaetan ToulemondeTim RokossaBanksAlexander Hendricks,CFAFlora BenhakounCementLuis Prieto BartolomeChemicalsTim JonesMartin DunwoodieVirginie Boucher-FerteConstructionMatthias PfeifenbergerMichael KuhnConsumerMichael KuhnHarold Thompso
8、nJamie IsenwaterRod WhiteheadGunnar RomerFinancial servicesAlexander Hendricks,CFAIndustrialsPeter Reilly,+49 69 910 31942+49 69 910 31813+43 1 53181 156+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 31949+33 14 495 6668+49 69 910 31998+49 69 910 31928+49 69 910 31962+44(20)754-50791+44 20 754 76763+44 20 754 72852+44 2
9、0 75457940+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 36642+49 69 910 36642+44 20 754 51886+44 20 754 75170+44 20 754 58492+49 69 910 31917+49 69 910 31928+44 20 754 59835,Ingo SchmitzInsuranceSpencer HorganMediaPatrick KirbyPharma&HealthcareHolger BlumGunnar RomerReal EstateMarkus ScheuflerRetailJames CollinsSemicon
10、ductorsKai KorscheltSoftwareMark BraleySolar TechnologyAlexander KarnickKatja FilzekTechnologyBenjamin KohnkeUwe Schupp,CFATelecommunicationMatthew Bloxham,CFATransportation&LogisticsAndy ChuSimon ChampionUtilitiesAlexander Karnick,+49 69 910 31910+44 20 754 56727+44 20 754 73560+49 69 910 31912+49
11、69 910 31917+49 69 910 31739+44 20 754 54252+44 20 754 58569+44(20)754-59904+49 69 910 31945+49 69 910 31955+49 69 910 31943+49 69 910 31955+44 20 754 58163+44 20 754 77650+44 20 754 51983+49 69 910 31945,Bastian SynagowitzBen FidlerPage2,+49 69 910 36126+44 20 754 54138,Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 Oc
12、tober 2012German&Austrian Equities,Metro Group,Hold,Reuters:MEOG.DEMetro reduces FY Profit guidance that the market didnt believe,Exchange:GER,Ticker:MEOG,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),21.4625.0036.98-20.057,012.9,Note to self:If you cant see how theyre going to get
13、 there they probably wontIn perhaps the least surprising profit warning we might see this year,Metro haswarned that it now expects FY underlying EBIT of c.2bn,16%lower than itsprevious guidance of c.2.37bn,5%lower than consensus(source:,FYE 12/31,2011A,2012E,2013E,www.metrogroup.de)of 2.1bn.After we
14、ak Q1 and Q2 results we struggled with the,Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm),65,927 66,925 68,2771,730 1,680 1,826,visibility of an H2 momentum improvement(Metro cited a higher H2 sales base on alowered cost base)and preferred to err on the side of caution.,Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),
15、1,4712.631.3515.6,1,3362.881.357.5,1,8263.181.426.7,Metro cites weakening non food spending in recent weeks.in Southern Europe and Eastern Europe,with MediaMarkt under most pressure butnon food weakness also at Cash&Carry and Real.How do we square maintenanceof sales guidance with a 16%downgrade to
16、EBIT guidance and with the fact that theCEO confidently said at Q2 that it could offset any H2 macro deterioration with,greater efficiency efforts?1 In short we think this warning is driven by both sales and margins.Managementsays that while it had assumed no improvement in market conditions in H2 t
17、hedeterioration is far greater than it could have anticipated or compensated.It is nowconfident that it has been suitably cautious about Q4,anticipating no improvementfrom currently terrible conditions.2 In Spain in particular the impact of the VAT rise was not fully clear until Septemberdue to a si
18、gnificant pull-forward benefit in August and a consequent heavy crash inSeptember.Italy and Poland,both important markets for Metro,also saw significantdeteriorations.3 Metro has fully-loaded its business(particularly C&C)with cost this year andultimately has been expecting some top line response to
19、 this.This clearly hasntmaterialised.The debate for another day(but which the valuation is already thinkingabout)is whether this is indicative of a greater structural weakness and hence farlower sales elasticity than management had hoped.4 Media-Saturn probably has as big a margin problem as a sales
20、 one,theconsequence of some competitor stores going out of business and selling downstock and the fact that nobody in the consumer electronics industry is seeing anypositive sales momentum and hence there is fierce gross margin sacrifice throughpromotions and price cuts in order to try and drive sal
21、es.Maybe management should never have issued guidance for 2012 EBITWe have some sympathy with Metros management team and its efforts to makeMetro better able to drive profit growth in a sustainable way rather than relying oncost-cutting.But this was never going to be achieved overnight or in a predi
22、ctablemanner,particularly in a tough macro backdrop,hence making and missing a 2012EBIT target has damaged credibility more than needed in our opinion.,Deutsche Bank AG/London,James-G Collins(+44)20 754-54252james-,Sally Ronald(+44)20 7541-,Page3,8 October 2012German&Austrian Equities,Chemical Datab
23、ook,Raw material inflation may drive a modest margin,squeeze in Q4 12Focus stocks,AkzoNobel(AKZO.AS),EUR45.78 BuyPrice Target EUR56.00BASF(BASFn.DE),EUR66.74 Buy PriceTarget EUR74.00Lanxess(LXSG.DE),EUR63.25 Buy PriceTarget EUR78.00Linde(LING.DE),EUR134.95 Buy PriceTarget EUR153.00Syngenta(SYNN.VX),
24、CHF351.00 BuyPrice Target CHF400.00,Summary:Raw material increases suggest margin squeeze brewing for Q4We expect outlook comments through Q3 12 reporting to remain conservative,particularly driven by the growing risks of some short-term margin squeeze.Rawmaterials in some regions have increased sha
25、rply in the past two months-followingthe oil price-and while most chemical companies will try to increase pricing tocompensate this may be harder to implement than normal given subdued demandtrends.Our top sector picks remain high mkt share cyclicals(with valuation support)alongside defensives with
26、undervalued growth(BASF,Linde,Syngenta,AkzoNobel,Lanxess).Q3 reporting not a disaster but some modest softening has occurredWe see no disaster brewing for Q3 reporting,although,in our view,it is time to berealistic and accept that pricing trends are getting tougher in many areas at a timewhen volume
27、s remain subdued.Q3 demand levels have generally remainedreasonable,although at the margin the“summer lull in Europe does appear to haveoccurred and the typical post summer September pick-up seems somewhat subduedat the moment,particularly due to on-going concerns over China and autos.Basedon curren
28、t consensus,some small misses appear inevitable but these are likely to be“managed”well.Outlooks are unlikely to be changed(particularly given numerousCMDs in Q3)so expect conservatism to remain.Raw material inflation occurringShort-term raw material trends through 2012 have been very volatile,in-li
29、ne with theoil price.However,the recent strength of the oil price is now starting to feed throughto the most basic petrochemicals products(ethylene,propylene)with some productsin Asia and Europe seeing over 20%+inflation in August/September.Oil trendsremain very volatile,but assuming oil strength pe
30、rsists rising raw material costs willbe seen by many names into Q4 12 and early 2103.While most will try to offset thiswith price increases,many will find these increases difficult to implement given thesubdued demand environment for many key customer groups.Q4 commentary to be conservative,albeit b
31、ase effects support profit growthQ4 is typically the weakest quarter in the year for most companies and we see this aslikely again for 2012.While a low base effect(Q4 11 was impacted by material de-stocking by some customers)will support year-on-year profit growth,we still expectmaterial sequential
32、erosion of profits due to seasonality but also the growing risks ofsome short-term margin squeeze from rising raw materials.This does not mean thatQ4 12 will be disastrous but we would expect the commentary from somemanagement teams through Q3 12 reporting to remain conservative.Sector summary,valua
33、tion and risksIn a weak volume environment,pricing power/cost cuts are critical in supportingprofits.We focus on cyclical with the strongest market shares and/or self-helpmeasures(BASF,Lanxess alongside Arkema).In“defensives”we recommendexposure in those with undervalued growth(Linde,Syngenta).Our f
34、avoured mid-term“change”story remains Akzo.We value the sector using DCF/SOTP.Risksinclude GDP,FX and oil.,Tim Jones(+44)20 754-Page4,Martin Dunwoodie(+44)20 754-,Virginie Boucher-Ferte(+44)20 754-57940virginie.boucher-,Oliver Reiff(+44)20 754-Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 October 2012German&Austrian Eq
35、uities,German BanksFocus stockscomdirect(CDBG.DE),EUR7.83 Buy PriceTarget EUR9.00Deutsche Boerse(DB1Gn.DE),EUR43.43Buy Price Target EUR52.00Deutsche Bank AG/London,The imperative 60%cost-income ratioGerman banking structures sufficient to cover cost of equityAlthough historical performance suggests
36、otherwise,we believe that Germanbanking structures allow for profitability,sufficient to cover the cost of equity.In thepast,banks opted to ignore cost management requirements and instead exportedtheir funding cost advantage and grew internationally.With domestic loan-to-depositratios below 100%and
37、ongoing tensions in the debt funding market,sidelined byregulatory moves to limit leverage,we believe it is time for banks to focus on thehome market and get their houses in order.We have Buy ratings on Deutsche Boerseas a net winner of regulation and comdirect as a long-term net winner of marketsha
38、re.Reassessing the opportunities in German bankingIn this report we reassess the profit opportunities in German banking.We analyzeretail banking,corporate banking,and the capital markets business.In summary,webelieve market structures in Germany do allow banks to earn the cost of equity,incontrast t
39、o what past performance and current valuations suggest.Margins inGermany are comparable to those in other European markets.Despite beingconsidered a fragmented market,clear economies of scale exist.Traditional bankingservices are not the focus of harsher regulation and the strength of Germany isrefl
40、ected in banks funding costs.Tight cost management is crucial to generate cost of equityNot all German financial institutions have had a clear focus on cost management,butin an environment of prolonged subdued revenues,low-cost production becomesimperative to protect the bottom line.There is scope t
41、o improve efficiency,particularly in the three important buckets of cost:staff,IT and real estate.However,we think it could take some time for investors to appreciate the potential.In themeantime,we recommend Deutsche Boerse(Buy,EUR52 target price),which,as akey provider of a regulated securities in
42、frastructure environment from trading toclearing to settlement,should benefit from regulatory change,and comdirect(Buy,EUR9.0 target price),which we expect to continue to gain market share in Germanretail banking as more clients migrate to online-only banks.Valuation and risksWe value German financi
43、als based on a sum-of-the-parts approach,generally usingour estimates for 2013.Estimating individual business segments profits and equityconsumption,and applying business-specific assumptions on long-term growthpotential as well as cost of equity,we calculate target P/B ratios;these are deriveddirec
44、tly from a constant growth DDM.We adjust target values by company-specificfactors,such as hidden assets and liabilities.Important sector-specific risk factors areinvestors appetite for long-term unsecured bank bonds,the development of NPLsand credit risk charges,corporate investment appetite and len
45、ding demand,the levelof interest rates and type of yield curve,and securities trading activity.Alexander Hendricks(+49)69 910-Page5,Page6,DeutscheBankAG/London,German&AustrianEquities,8October2012,Figure 1:German Coverage Universe DAX companies,Ticker,Rec.,Company,FF-Market,Price,Upside/,Performance
46、,EPS,P/E Ratio,Div.,Div.,EV/,EV/,EV/,cap.,as of,Target-Downs.,since,YTD,Yield,Sales EBITDA,OC,Sharecl.05/10/2012 price potential,last,2011E,2012E,2013E,2011E,2012E,2013E,2012E,2012E,(Euro m),EUR,in EUR,(%),day(%),EUR,EUR,EUR,EUR,EUR,(%),12E,12E,12E,ADSGn.DE BALVG.DEBBASFn.DE BBAYGn.DE B,Adidas AGAll
47、ianzBASFBayer AG,14,03442,04661,34257,068,67.193.066.769.0,70.0100.074.071.0,4.47.610.92.9,2.50.41.72.6,35.732.828.844.0,3.26.46.34.8,3.811.45.75.4,4.712.56.16.0,20.914.410.714.3,17.78.211.812.8,14.47.510.911.5,1.44.82.61.8,2.15.13.82.6,0.91.01.8,9.46.09.3,1.91.82.5,BEIG.DE,B,Beiersdorf,5,757,58.4,7
48、0.0,19.9,0.4,35.1,1.9,2.1,2.3,31.2,28.4,25.1,0.8,1.3,1.9,13.1,5.3,BMWG.DE HCBKG.DEH,BMWCommerzbank,19,6066,353,61.01.5,68.01.5,11.5-0.2,2.11.1,22.211.5,6.80.1,6.90.0,7.00.2,8.911.3,8.941.8,8.78.7,2.50.0,4.10.0,0.4,2.9,9.4,CONG.DEDAIGn.DE,BH,ContinentalDaimler,6,34738,603,79.939.3,100.042.0,25.26.9,0
49、.42.0,69.521.7,7.85.3,10.74.9,11.55.1,10.37.4,7.57.9,7.07.7,1.71.7,2.14.3,0.70.3,4.93.0,1.30.8,DB1Gn.DE B,Deutsche Boerse,8,105,43.4,52.0,19.7,0.4,8.9,4.6,3.8,4.1,9.5,11.3,10.6,2.3,5.3,3.9,7.3,2.3,LHAG.DE,H,Deutsche Lufthansa AG,5,026,11.0,12.0,9.3,0.6,22.8,0.3,0.5,1.1,40.9,20.1,10.3,0.3,2.7,0.5,5.9
50、,1.3,DPWGn.DE BDTEGn.DE BEONGn.DE B,Deutsche Post DHLDeutsche TelekomE.ON,13,84028,28237,189,15.49.518.6,17.010.821.0,10.613.813.0,0.11.50.2,35.916.318.5,0.90.7-0.8,1.40.62.1,1.40.71.7,16.314.4nm,11.215.78.6,10.714.410.9,0.80.71.1,4.97.45.9,0.41.40.6,5.44.85.9,1.61.00.9,FREG.DEFMEG.DEHEIG.DE,BHB,Fre
