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1、,mobile trends for the next 10,a collaborative outlook,compliled by Rudy De Waele/m-trends.org,4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,17,18,19,20,21,23,24,25,26,27,28,30,31,32,contributors,Douglas RushkoffKatrin VerclasWillem BoijensTimo ArnallGerd LeonhardFabien GirardinAlan MooreMartin DuvalTony FishIlja Lau
2、rsYuri van GeestNicolas NovaRaimo van der KleinRussell BuckleyTomi AhonenStefan ConstantinescuRich WongMarshall KirkpatrickAndy AbramsonMarek PawlowskiRuss McGuireCarlo LonginoHoward RheingoldSteve OHearTed Morgan,Kevin C.TofelJonathan MacDonaldDavid WoodMichael BreidenbrueckerHenri MoissinacAndreas
3、 ConstantinouC.Enrique OrtizRaj SinghMarc DavisDavid HarperLoic Le MeurAjit JaokarInma MartinezCarlos DomingoKelly GotoFelix PetersenMatthaus KrzykowskiTom HumeAtau TanakaRobert RiceYou!(if you like),333436373839404243444547484950515354555658enjoy!,At the turn of a decade its always worthwhile looki
4、ng back to ones initial dreams.,In my case it was all about being at the forefront of innovation in the mobile space.From viewing my first mobile video in Helsinki to thefirst mobile augmented reality demo in Amsterdam.I had the chance to participate in and witness many interesting projects in mobil
5、efrom the 1st row:as an entrepreneur,a strategist,a conference organizer,a blogger,a speaker and a networker with a mission to inspireothers,to help them in the process of building new great things.,To this end I have been writing down my predictions in mobile&wireless for a couple of years now.This
6、 year I thought it was the time tomove on and do something different,so I asked some of my personal heroes in mobile to write down their five most significant trends forthe coming decade.,All of them have been of great inspiration to me during this decade:for their ideas,visions,talent,the capabilit
7、ies to adapt and theperseverance to succeed whatever the situation.While I didnt know any one of these great people 10 years ago,Im glad to have metmost of them and proud that some I can call them real friends.,I am in awe and grateful when I look at the wisdom and insight that these busy people wer
8、e so happy to share with the world.,It is exactly in this spirit that I myself want to move on into the next decade.Convinced that more openness,knowledge sharing andcollaboration is key to facing our global challenges,in 2009,I co-founded.A space at the fuzzy edges of innovation,will hopefully help
9、 many entrepreneurs and organizations across all industries to open up,exchange,collaborate,create andinspire.,I hope to meet you all there!,Rudy De Waele,co-founder,blogger,speakermtrends,m-trends.org,BY NC ND,1.ESP sensors.Probably based on brainwave activity.Not so hard.2.Driving locks.3.Implante
10、d bluetooth ear and microphone.4.Verizon abandons CDMA.5.Radiation and brain damage documented.Douglas RushkoffAuthor of Life I,BY NC ND,4,projects,5,Katrin VerclasCo-founder&editor of MobileActive.orgKatrinSkayamobileactive.org1.Mobiles in social development will truly become an integral part of de
11、velopmentand programmes with aid organizations understanding the potential of mobiles and smartly deploying mobile tech aspart of their programmes.UNICEF and CONCERN will be at the vanguard.2.Africa will see the first truly mobile political campaign.Itll be likely in Nigeria in 2010.,3.Mobile paymen
12、ts will be widespread,-for social benefit payments by governments,for remittances across,borders,and for tax and other payments by citizens.This will make financial governance every so slightly moreaccountable in developing countries,and will begin to make a positive economic impact at the bottom of
13、 theeconomic pyramid.4.Health care delivery,especially in developing countries,will see some true breakthroughs withmore telemedicine projects like mobile ultrasound and other diagnostics.New business models involving medicalexpertise remotely will emerge so that the divide between healthcare betwee
14、n rich and poor areas will flatten.5.Elections and other forms of political expression by citizens,government oversight will be radicallydifferent than they are today by way of mobile voting,mobiles for reporting and government accountability.,6.Environmental monitoring,in the form of smart sensing
15、devices will be part of everyday life with new forms,of scientific environmental discovery and mitigation possible.BY NC ND,1.Were all value creators:,value creation&exchange,collaboration,cocreation in,real-time,the next billion internet users,2.LifeFlow:,wellbeing,productivity,efficiency,sustainab
16、ility,3.Sense:,natural interfaces,projection display,Large Quantity Information Display(LQID),ambient vs single task driven UIs,4.Swarming:,dynamic grids,ad-hoc&meshed networks,spatial data,adaptive,architecture,smart mobility&energy services,5.Morph:BY NC ND,identities,shapes&materials,wearables,di
17、sposables,digestablesWillem BoijensMarketing innovation&designexecutive/Principal manager atVodafone Group M,6,1.Things and services:,The increasing connection between physical devices and online services will,drive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful,personal,social,vis
18、ual andmanipulable representations.With all of these personal activities that can be measured orcounted(Nike+,Wattson and Foursquare are prototypical)there is potential for a broad range ofpersonal and public services.,2.Physical diversification:,There will be an enormous physical diversification of
19、 connected devices.,In many cases a connected object are no longer just mobile but e-readers,cameras,music players,and household appliances all the way up to cars,public spaces and buildings(where there is a goodreason to do so).,3.Daily data:,As we begin to learn how to create and manipulate our on
20、line data shadows that are,created out of this data(cf.Mike Kuniavsky),this will have significant effects on everyday life and onour sense of value in personal information.The impact of this will be felt through changes in daily lifethat try to influence the things that can be counted.,4.Pervasive p
21、rivacy:,Because of the increased visibility of everyday activities,places,relationships,finances,health,etc.the issues around privacy will really come to a head.Not just the big brotherprivacy issues that will be tested through the legal system,but really sticky,complex social andpersonal privacy is
22、sues that are difficult for technology alone to resolve(cf.Everyware).5.Always-on backlash:In reaction to increased,pervasive connectivity,there must be an always-on backlash en masse.There will not just be niche communities choosing to opt-out,but it willbecome culturally,socially necessary and des
23、irable to be offline.The ability to gracefully disconnect andgo dark must become a USP for many products and services.Timo ArnallDesign Researcher at Oslo Schoolof Architecture and DesignTimoArnall,BY NC ND,7,to gracefully disconnect,1.Mobile advertising will surpass the decidedly outmoded Web1.0,&c
24、omputer-centric advertising,-and ads will become content,almost entirely.Advertisers will,within 2-5 years,massively convert to mobile,location-aware,targeted,opt-ed-in,social and user-distributed ads;from 1%of their their budgets to at least 1/3of their total advertising budget.Advertising becomes
25、ContVertising-and Googles revenues will be 10 x of whatthey are today,in 5 years,driven by mobile,and by video.,2.Tablet devices will become the way,many of us will read magazines,books,newspapers and even,attend live concerts,conferences and events.The much-speculated Apple iPad will kick this off
26、but every majordevice maker will copy their new tablet within 18 months.In addition,tablets will kick off the era of mobileaugmented reality.This will be a huge boon to the content industries,worldwide-but only if they can drop theirmad content protection schemes,and slash the prices in return for a
27、 much larger user base.,3.Many makers of simple smart phones,-probably starting with Nokia-will make their devices available,for free-but will take a small cut(similar to the current credit-cards)from all transactions that are done through thedevices,e.g.banking,small purchases,on-demand content etc
28、.Mobile phones become wallets,banks and ATMs.4.Quite a few mobile phones will not run on any particular networks,i.e.without SIM cards.Thelikes of Google(Nexus),and maybe Skype,LG or Amazon will offer mobile phones that will work only on Wifi/WiMax,LTE or mashed-access networks,and will offer more o
29、r less free calls.This will finally wake up the mobilenetwork operators,and force them to really move up the food-chain-into content and the provision of experiences5.Content will be bundled into mobile service contracts,starting with music,i.e.once your mobilephone/computer is online,much of the us
30、e of the content(downloaded or streamed)will be included.Bundles andflat-rates-many of them Advertising 2.0-supported-will become the primary way of consuming,and interactingwith content.First music,then books,new and magazines,then film&TV.Gerd LeonhardAuthor&Blogger,KeynoteSpeaker&S,BY NC ND,9,1.W
31、eb of things:,an average networked pet will have a voice,generating more,data traffic than the average human,2.Digital syllogomania:,digital garbage collection becomes a(very)lucrative,business3.Networked urbanism:mobile data warping scandals will make us doubt on theability to regulate urban dynami
32、cs with data and intelligent algorithms4.Seamful design:opt-out mechanisms with awareness before experiencing densedata clouds,their scattered intelligent services and their occasional hail of contextualinformation.5.The messiness and unpredictability of the world continue to seriouslychallenge any
33、technophilic dreams and their strategies of borderingFabien GirardinResearcher at Lift,BY NC ND,10,1.Augmented reality becomes the new band wagon,with much misinformed,digital ink spilt2.The penny starts to drop with companies that Social Marketing Intelligence isthe black gold of the 21st Century3.
34、Accessing multiple dynamic data bases that are constantly updatedto deliver better enabling services begins to transform the media industry for examplecreating highly accurate 3D location maps by accessing the Flickr database,4.Convergence enables the blending of realityno distinction,from online an
35、d off so there is,5.The communications revolution acceleratesto think the unthinkableAlan MooreAuthor,blogger,BY NC ND,destroying businesses that refuse,11,1.Still to come Easy Back Up&Storage of Address Book,mobile contentand now Apps in case phone is lost,stolen or changed2.Emotions and social net
36、work recommendation based mobile search3.Mobile payment and transfer(in Europe)4.SMS based Health&Wellness monitoring and coaching5.Green Tech phones and in emerging countries,self-repairable ones6.Mobile battery performance and charging solutionsMartin DuvalCEO,BY NC ND,12,1.Connection managers.,Th
37、ey will become critical for,differentiation as devices will be able to handle massivedata speeds for microseconds and limited data speeds forhours;from any available network.,2.User Interface.,Mashup interfaces across voice,touch,and movement will create new experiences for getting datainto and cont
38、rolling mobile devices.Open(environments)will change the game.,3.Sensors.,Mobile devices will have sensors added which,will enable the capture local data from temperature to noiseand from location to who else is in the room.4.Business model.Based on game changes 2 and 3,brands realize that more valu
39、e is created from the analysisof sensor data taken off the mobile devices than from uservoice or data usage analysis.Combining the two,sensorand user data,it will be possible to generate new businessmodels and shareholder value.,5.Ownership of your data footprint.,Every brand,wants to own you and yo
40、ur data.Users will becomediscriminating about brands who deliver value to them andthese will be different from those who are in the mobileretail value chain today.Trust and privacy will be at theforefront of the user decision.Tony FishEntrepreneur&strategic thinker AMF VenturesTonyF,BY NC ND,13,1.It
41、s all about phones.,50%hardware,50%software and services(UI,widgets,integrated,services,etc.).Apps and app stores are important(just as platforms are),but the consumer will see aleapfrog in devices,equivalent to BW(representing todays featurephones)to colour(representingtodays smartphones)devices sh
42、ift.2011,with smartphone being the mainstream device,to thecontrary,will be much less about devices and much more about apps and services,call the secondwave of apps.,2.iPhone is into linear growth,Android still very slow next year,generally status quo compared,to 2009.2011 iPhone stabilizing and ve
43、ry fragmented Android rapidly taking off.3.Strong movement,lead primarily by developers(not consumers),to openthe ecosystem.,4.We will see several app successes,($10m/yr businesses built on apps)in 2010,but massive,app successes will come in 2011/12,the industry will see$100m/yr businesses built on
44、apps,5.Certainly 2010 is the year of app stores opening.,Unfortunately theres no definition,of what is open(every app store calls itself open,still some reject voice/navigation,etc.apps basedon their competing business model and not on the user experience,quality or other objectivemeasures.But even
45、taking to quality and other objective measures,open for GJ means that it is theconsumer decides what quality is acceptable).2010 will certainly see all appstores being more openthan in 2009,still in general there will still be a lot of questions.Ilja LaursFounder and CEO of GetJ,BY NC ND,14,1.Mobile
46、 DNA:,anonymous DNA profiles for 10 euro on mobile devices will be used for hyper,targeted DNA-based services(dating,finance,education,medicine,food,sports),2.Mobile Neurotech:,using mobile devices to directly regulate and stimulate senses,thoughts,emotions and behavior as spinoff of cosmetic neurol
47、ogy,3.mHealth:,using mobile sensors,bodily sensors and fungible/internal sensors to boost mobile,health lifelogging and disease prevention/correction and boost scientific health research,4.Internet of Things:,multimedia sensors in animals,objects,buildings and places that allow,being present of ever
48、ything if needed,filtering will be biggest theme in this respect,5.Mobile Learning and Science:,mobile devices will drive permanent and highly personalized,learning(a.o.DNA based)and discovery of important changes in the environmentYuri van GeestCo-Founder Mobile Monday Amsterdam,Co-Organizer TEDx A
49、msterdam,Futuristvangeest,BY NC ND,mobilemonday.nl,15,open up,1.VoIP on cell-phones+less expensive data transfer2.The return of curious LBS+AR applications after few years in the“through of disillusionment”3.Some(rich)people will pay to be disconnected4.Non-humans(objects,animals,places)will generat
50、e more datathan humans5.Data Structure Service:services that allow to maintain/sort/structure all these data will gain even more weightNicolas N,BY NC ND,17,order,Dont,1.Augmented Reality:,placing digital content literally in physical context.,2.Indoor Smartness:,indoor positioning,smart environment
